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Global Corona Death predictions

View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 – 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 – 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 – 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Global Corona Death predictions

Old Jun 7th 2020, 4:04 pm
  #46  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Back to the original question posed in post #1.

There are now only 14 people who are still in the race to have given a correct prediction, especially as some countries, such as Brazil and Russia are known to be under-reporting deaths, and it likely many others are too, if only for lack of testing. So the true death count almost certainly already exceeds 500,000.

And of the 14, the chances of five of those being correct has to be pretty slim with global daily deaths reported still increasing, and most countries that had any sort of lock-down, now relaxing it, apparently primarily for economic reasons, so phase II of the pandemic awaits.
The numbers are indeed increasing. But you miss the second part of the question “before we give up reporting and caring”. We are very close to that point, if not already past it. thank you to the #blacklivesmatter movement.


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Old Jun 7th 2020, 5:57 pm
  #47  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
The numbers are indeed increasing. But you miss the second part of the question “before we give up reporting and caring”. .....
I think we've already discussed that the "second part of the question" is highly subjective, and whereas I thought it meant daily reporting of the data "somewhere", you apparently reported in tabloid headlines.

Last edited by Pulaski; Jun 7th 2020 at 6:05 pm.
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Old Jun 7th 2020, 6:03 pm
  #48  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
thank you to the #blacklivesmatter movement.
I've stopped looking at all media now.

Its mind blowing how people think mass protests are OK just as we appear to be making progress with a pandemic.

It pains me to quote him, but Matt Hancock got it spot on.... 'the virus itself doesn't discriminate'.

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Old Jun 7th 2020, 6:10 pm
  #49  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by NorthernLad View Post
I've stopped looking at all media now.

Its mind blowing how people think mass protests are OK just as we appear to be making progress with a pandemic.

It pains me to quote him, but Matt Hancock got it spot on.... 'the virus itself doesn't discriminate'.
Ironically, apparently the coronavirus does discriminate, with data from the UK and US pointing to an infection and death rate that is significantly higher, IIRC 2-3 times higher, in BAME/ minority populations than in the white population. There are many theories for this difference, but I haven't seen any definitive conclusion as to why this difference exists.
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Old Jun 7th 2020, 7:49 pm
  #50  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
I think we've already discussed that the "second part of the question" is highly subjective, and whereas I thought it meant daily reporting of the data "somewhere", you apparently reported in tabloid headlines.
when I last looked on the bbc website, covid related headlines were at number 3.

sky news, all about blacklives
cnn, all about protests in America.

Covid is being relegated to where it should be: a side note alongside the flu.

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Old Jun 7th 2020, 7:50 pm
  #51  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Ironically, apparently the coronavirus does discriminate, with data from the UK and US pointing to an infection and death rate that is significantly higher, IIRC 2-3 times higher, in BAME/ minority populations than in the white population. There are many theories for this difference, but I haven't seen any definitive conclusion as to why this difference exists.
jobs and living conditions. People who work in factories can’t work from home.
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 6:28 am
  #52  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
The problem with describing 'India' is that there is no 'one' India. My south Indian home town has had no deaths. Pune which had one of the worst case numbers is now coming out of lock-down. Karnataka has been low in cases.
Mumbai because of population density and large areas of poverty is now not surprisingly increasing in case numbers. (A distant elderly cousin admitted with heart problem caught virus there and has died this week.)
Delhi the original large case area is a global hub.
We left on one of the last flights out in March----temperature tested everywhere --masks. On landing at Birmingham airport UK -----nothing!!! Just got a taxi and left.
'Coming out of lockdown' doesn't mean success by the way. Mumbai and Delhi are easing restrictions yet if you believe the reports, the hospitals are utterly ****ed and cases are not dropping.

Always gotta have a dig at the UK though haven't you? You shouldn't have flown back if it's such a shit show in Birmingham.
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 8:38 am
  #53  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
1)Coming out of lockdown' doesn't mean success by the way. Mumbai and Delhi are easing restrictions yet if you believe the reports, the hospitals are utterly ****ed and cases are not dropping.

2)Always gotta have a dig at the UK though haven't you? You shouldn't have flown back if it's such a shit show in Birmingham.
1) That is what I pointed out!!! I also pointed out a peak since easing of lockdown in some areas. Mumbai varies according to the particular area concerned----according to whatsapps we receive.
Pune one of the worst early areas is now in red/green areas of lockdown and no peak.

2) It is generally acknowledged that in UK 'lockdown' should have been earlier. We came to UK because children there thought they would not have seen us for months otherwise. (Two are frontline workers).
We would have been safer obviously in our Indian home ---no cases in the town. Although now cases have been brought in from outlying towns into local hospital-----causing much controversy. No deaths.

(Birmingham is an awful airport for many reasons!)



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Old Jun 8th 2020, 9:54 am
  #54  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
So here we are five weeks later, and things aren't looking quite so rosy for India. Or is this BBC report describing a different India - hospitals stretched, public hospitals underfunded, testing kits not available.

The reality is that reported cases in India have not only increased steadily but also steadily accelerated, and yet testing per capita is still among the lowest of the top 25 countries affected (Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, and Bangladesh also have extremely low per capita testing figures) - and the number of tests would need to be multiplied by about 20 to put it in the same ballpark as most other countries.
The report is reasonably accurate for Mumbai, Pune and Delhi for sure, the cases are 10,000 plus per day with limited testing, it corresponds with what I'm experiencing on the ground in Mumbai. The country areas have limited cases - though again this is anecdotal with probably no testing.

The previous poster was probably shooting his mouth off without actual first hand experience - similar to what he was accusing all the other posters off
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 10:35 am
  #55  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by weasel decentral View Post
The report is reasonably accurate for Mumbai, Pune and Delhi for sure, the cases are 10,000 plus per day with limited testing, it corresponds with what I'm experiencing on the ground in Mumbai. The country areas have limited cases - though again this is anecdotal with probably no testing.The previous poster was probably shooting his mouth off without actual first hand experience - similar to what he was accusing all the other posters off
Not sure that you that you are referring to myself but considering we are at 'home' in a Karnataka- city/town---(not Bangalore), have multiple close relatives in Mumbai, Pune including doctors working there. Several times a day whatsapps I (she) do know what I am talking about. However it is at personal home level not just a closeted foreign worker.
I pointed out that Pune was one of the worst early areas and there was total lockdown there ---a brother and sister in law from there --holed up in our home could not return for weeks as borders closed. Yes the early march, April good reports have been replaced by peaks.
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 11:07 am
  #56  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Not sure that you that you are referring to myself but considering we are at 'home' in a Karnataka- city/town---(not Bangalore), have multiple close relatives in Mumbai, Pune including doctors working there. Several times a day whatsapps I (she) do know what I am talking about. However it is at personal home level not just a closeted foreign worker.
I pointed out that Pune was one of the worst early areas and there was total lockdown there ---a brother and sister in law from there --holed up in our home could not return for weeks as borders closed. Yes the early march, April good reports have been replaced by peaks.
I quoted someone who was quoting a guy called sun_burn, that's the guy I was referencing. My definition of first hand is through my own eyes - I work in construction here so may not be quite the closeted foreign worker you assume.
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 11:34 am
  #57  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by weasel decentral View Post
I quoted someone who was quoting a guy called sun_burn, that's the guy I was referencing. My definition of first hand is through my own eyes - I work in construction here so may not be quite the closeted foreign worker you assume.
Someone in TIO suggested to me that I looked at this thread (regret that I did!!)

I usually find the posts of sun_burn sensible.
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 6:51 pm
  #58  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
So here we are five weeks later, and things aren't looking quite so rosy for India.
Is it ?
India has 257K cumulative cases, with >50% recovered and 7000 dead.
UK has 285K cases, >40K dead.
US has over 1M cases, 110K dead.
The morality rate in India - which is really the only thing that matters - remains quite low. India has a low Covid tests/capita , despite being in the top 3 in total tests, mainly because the denominator is a very large number. One could multiple the notional total case count by 5 and it would just reduce the mortality rate that much further.

The argument 'we can't trust anything reported by India' would work to convince people of a certain age in the UK and US, who will readily believe anything that suits their own long held views of India, if that's the intention. As such, any appeal to authority, e.g. 'do you believe this - it's from BBC / XYZ' - is meaningless, because it's entirely a question of what authority one chooses to believe. Any ad hoc basis of 'I don't believe this , but here, you should believe that' is a pointless waste of time when directed at anyone who doesn't have the necessary personal biases in place to be receptive.

Every country reports data on testing, case count and death count. The only meaningful approach is that you treat source with equal disdain, or equal credibility, at least as far as every major country goes. Any other approach is colored with far too much personal bias to be of any worth. There's already plenty of nauseating western press that seeks first and foremost to validate their own biases - certain countries "must" be worse than them and anything to the contrary is obvious falsehood. As they say, one's own personal bias is the hardest thing to recognize.
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 7:39 pm
  #59  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
Is it ?
India has 257K cumulative cases, with >50% recovered and 7000 dead.
UK has 285K cases, >40K dead.
US has over 1M cases, 110K dead.
The morality rate in India - which is really the only thing that matters - remains quite low. India has a low Covid tests/capita , despite being in the top 3 in total tests, mainly because the denominator is a very large number. One could multiple the notional total case count by 5 and it would just reduce the mortality rate that much further.

The argument 'we can't trust anything reported by India' would work to convince people of a certain age in the UK and US, who will readily believe anything that suits their own long held views of India, if that's the intention. As such, any appeal to authority, e.g. 'do you believe this - it's from BBC / XYZ' - is meaningless, because it's entirely a question of what authority one chooses to believe. Any ad hoc basis of 'I don't believe this , but here, you should believe that' is a pointless waste of time when directed at anyone who doesn't have the necessary personal biases in place to be receptive.

Every country reports data on testing, case count and death count. The only meaningful approach is that you treat source with equal disdain, or equal credibility, at least as far as every major country goes. Any other approach is colored with far too much personal bias to be of any worth. There's already plenty of nauseating western press that seeks first and foremost to validate their own biases - certain countries "must" be worse than them and anything to the contrary is obvious falsehood. As they say, one's own personal bias is the hardest thing to recognize.
I am sceptical about all countries' reported data, and fully recognise that the UK and US have significant problems, with "opening up" when it is at best debatable as to whether the transmission of the disease is under control, and in the US there are rather too many covidiot deniers, who won't even act to reduce transmission becuase they (i) don't believe the disease is "any more concerning than flu", and/or (ii) God will look after them, or if they die, its just God''s will, and/or (iii) the whole lock-down effort is a government/UN conspiracy to deprive people of their liberty, etc, etc.

Given that all countries' data may be suspect, it is noteworthy that the reported daily cases in India are increasing, and accelerating (generally today's number is greater than yesterday's), when even countries that haven't acted well to control the spread of the disease, such as the UK and US, are reporting lower and down-ward trending new case numbers every day. So even if India has a low infection rate, and has "flattened the curve" the truth at the moment is that the disease is still spreading, and spreading more every day than the day before, which puts India in the same situation as Mexico, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as (I think) the only four countries in the top twenty (by numbers of infections) where the daily reports of new cases are still increasing.
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Old Jun 8th 2020, 8:33 pm
  #60  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
I am sceptical about all countries' reported data, and fully recognise that the UK and US have significant problems, with "opening up" when it is at best debatable as to whether the transmission of the disease is under control, and in the US there are rather too many covidiot deniers, who won't even act to reduce transmission becuase they (i) don't believe the disease is "any more concerning than flu", and/or (ii) God will look after them, or if they die, its just God''s will, and/or (iii) the whole lock-down effort is a government/UN conspiracy to deprive people of their liberty, etc, etc.

Given that all countries' data may be suspect, it is noteworthy that the reported daily cases in India are increasing, and accelerating (generally today's number is greater than yesterday's), when even countries that haven't acted well to control the spread of the disease, such as the UK and US, are reporting lower and down-ward trending new case numbers every day. So even if India has a low infection rate, and has "flattened the curve" the truth at the moment is that the disease is still spreading, and spreading more every day than the day before, which puts India in the same situation as Mexico, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as (I think) the only four countries in the top twenty (by numbers of infections) where the daily reports of new cases are still increasing.
Can you not understand? India had an early and total lockdown, borders closed, in cities unable to go anywhere without temperature testing and masks, leading to proportionally less cases and certainly less deaths.
Now they have started reducing Lockdown and have a 'peak' of cases. A warning to other countries about reducing lockdown.
We will see what happens now. (Some States are extending lock down West Bengal for example.)

Regarding numbers ---I presume you know the population of India?

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