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Global Corona Death predictions

View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 – 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 – 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 – 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Global Corona Death predictions

Old May 6th 2020, 8:33 am
  #31  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Third world countries didn't end in 1991. Just Russia broke up and made a lot more of them.
Not really, a 2nd world country can't become 3rd world when there's no 2nd world left anymore.
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Old May 6th 2020, 9:18 am
  #32  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
Testing is not the only approach to pandemic mitigation, or even the most effective one. The early tests had a multiple day turnaround time. They continue to generate false positives and negatives.

When you impose among the most draconian restrictions of any country quite early, testing can focus on clusters identified quite early. This is as opposed to the US and UK that left international air travel to hot zones wide open until quite recently.

The Telangana case clusters for example are almost 90% due to absconding Tablighi Jamaat congregants. That event was the largest source of infections in several states. On the flip side, Kerala which had the earliest cases and was an early contributor to case counts, is down to >50 day case doubling rate, ie R0 much below 1.

What the original posts were about, I suspect, is the trite implication that ‘third world countries’ (a term with no meaning after 1991) have weak institutions and weak administrative capability, making for a potentially lethal combination during a pandemic.

India however, is undoubtedly a developing nation but has relatively strong institutions for its income level, and the ability to marshal national resources to a cause. It conducts elections flawlessly using electronic voting every 5 years with an electorate now at 850 million people. The national health insurance plan covers 550 million, less than 2 years since since announcement.

Arguably the US and UK are doing far worse. They did not consider the magnitude of the risk early enough . They’re dependent entirely on the existing capability of their institutions and not their leaderships, which are a daily clown show. In comparison, India recognized the risk and its own constraints early and acted decisively.

There’s nothing scientifically revealing about ‘true numbers will reveal themselves’ . I’ll reiterate that ‘flattening the curve’ does not reduce counts - it just spreads them out so the system can cope. We are dealing with a disease with no cure, no consistent symptoms, no effective mitigation or treatment, several anecdotal claims of efficacy, and outright quackery.

Under these circumstances, a nation that acts decisively and recognizes its own constraints while maximizing its strengths at producing medicines and material cheaply and quickly, ought to be applauded for its efforts.
I'm going to respond because your first post was declaring how effective the restriction had been by comparing test results for the spread, you have now cast that premise aside. I do agree with you that testing isn't cure, the government had a lockdown not based on test results but based on the reality of the situation.

Anyhow my present experience of Mumbai, is that the hospitals are completely swamped if you can get to one - and generally you can't. We manage many thousands of staff and labour, now quarantined in camps using our own doctors etc. there is no specialised treatment they are just kept in place to recover (or not). A ventilator or similar would be a pipe dream. I don't see this as a medical management of the crisis, it's purely a quarantine approach. India is fine in general - just don't always take criticism to heart and give some PR spin

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Old May 6th 2020, 9:20 am
  #33  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by nonthaburi View Post
Not really, a 2nd world country can't become 3rd world when there's no 2nd world left anymore.
Reminds me of a joke when I was in Yemen - why is Yemen considered a 3rd world country?

Because there's no 4th world category
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Old May 6th 2020, 11:35 am
  #34  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by weasel decentral View Post
Reminds me of a joke when I was in Yemen - why is Yemen considered a 3rd world country?

Because there's no 4th world category
Tell us the joke then.
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Old May 6th 2020, 11:37 am
  #35  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Tell us the joke then.
Fnaar (or is it Sanaa?)
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Old May 6th 2020, 11:40 am
  #36  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by nonthaburi View Post
Not really, a 2nd world country can't become 3rd world when there's no 2nd world left anymore.
Pretty sure I can name 5 ex-Russian counties that qualify for IDA lending. IDA eligibility being the great test of defining a country as third world or not. (note India isn't eligible, but it's shit a shit hole for a vast majority of its people.. on the basis that the vast majority still shit in holes).

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Old May 6th 2020, 12:23 pm
  #37  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Pretty sure I can name 5 ex-Russian counties that qualify for IDA lending. IDA eligibility being the great test of defining a country as third world or not. (note India isn't eligible, but it's shit a shit hole for a vast majority of its people.. on the basis that the vast majority still shit in holes).
Depends on what your definition of third world is. I was using the terms in their original meaning. They're outdated now anyway.
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Old May 6th 2020, 1:03 pm
  #38  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
It was in 2012 I was asked to do open days recruiting for engineers labelled as 'TCNs'. That's a long time after 1991.
That's third country national in a different sense to third world country national
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Old May 6th 2020, 1:04 pm
  #39  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Tell us the joke then.
Good one
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Old May 6th 2020, 1:05 pm
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Pretty sure I can name 5 ex-Russian counties that qualify for IDA lending. IDA eligibility being the great test of defining a country as third world or not. (note India isn't eligible, but it's shit a shit hole for a vast majority of its people.. on the basis that the vast majority still shit in holes).
Maybe we just have first and third world now, second has been shelved until the next great revolution
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Old May 6th 2020, 1:37 pm
  #41  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by weasel decentral View Post
That's third country national in a different sense to third world country national
Good point. Not sure the people asking would spot that difference though...
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Old May 6th 2020, 1:47 pm
  #42  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by weasel decentral View Post
Maybe we just have first and third world now, second has been shelved until the next great revolution
Don't forget the fourth .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_World
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Old Jun 7th 2020, 12:38 pm
  #43  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
That's quite normal isn't it ? It's a novel coronavirus. There's no known built in immunity. Indian overall case data is orders of magnitudes less than the average westerner would guess, and the best typically heard is a collection of stereotypes they have about India, not actual data. Indian case doubling rate slowed from 3.5 days prior to lockdown, to 7.8 a week after lockdown, to 10.2 days on April 28, and approx 15 days now, corresponding to a R0 of under 1.5 . Without actual numbers, 'increasing' means very little and has no context or utility. India hit 16K cases around April 18 and has twice that number now.

The most recent case data growth is correlated to the relaxation of the national lockdown, which first ran until April 15, and then was extended to May 3. Every country will have to figure out how to effectively exit lockdown while maintaining case count growth rate to levels its own system can manage. Some will do so having already been ravaged by massive medical system overload (Italy, Spain, NY area in US, parts of UK).

Others like India will have flattened the curve weeks ago and not having had to deal with an escalating medical crisis combined with shortage of medicines and PPE - are able to skip the part where they have to deal with millions in deaths that would otherwise have occured, and are now focused on how to ensure that case count growth clusters are identified and isolated, on the backs of weeks of extensive tracking and information gathering, as they work out how to open up their economy in a progressive manner.
Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
Testing is not the only approach to pandemic mitigation, or even the most effective one. The early tests had a multiple day turnaround time. They continue to generate false positives and negatives.

When you impose among the most draconian restrictions of any country quite early, testing can focus on clusters identified quite early. This is as opposed to the US and UK that left international air travel to hot zones wide open until quite recently.

The Telangana case clusters for example are almost 90% due to absconding Tablighi Jamaat congregants. That event was the largest source of infections in several states. On the flip side, Kerala which had the earliest cases and was an early contributor to case counts, is down to >50 day case doubling rate, ie R0 much below 1.

What the original posts were about, I suspect, is the trite implication that ‘third world countries’ (a term with no meaning after 1991) have weak institutions and weak administrative capability, making for a potentially lethal combination during a pandemic.

India however, is undoubtedly a developing nation but has relatively strong institutions for its income level, and the ability to marshal national resources to a cause. It conducts elections flawlessly using electronic voting every 5 years with an electorate now at 850 million people. The national health insurance plan covers 550 million, less than 2 years since since announcement.

Arguably the US and UK are doing far worse. They did not consider the magnitude of the risk early enough . They’re dependent entirely on the existing capability of their institutions and not their leaderships, which are a daily clown show. In comparison, India recognized the risk and its own constraints early and acted decisively.

There’s nothing scientifically revealing about ‘true numbers will reveal themselves’ . I’ll reiterate that ‘flattening the curve’ does not reduce counts - it just spreads them out so the system can cope. We are dealing with a disease with no cure, no consistent symptoms, no effective mitigation or treatment, several anecdotal claims of efficacy, and outright quackery.

Under these circumstances, a nation that acts decisively and recognizes its own constraints while maximizing its strengths at producing medicines and material cheaply and quickly, ought to be applauded for its efforts.
So here we are five weeks later, and things aren't looking quite so rosy for India. Or is this BBC report describing a different India - hospitals stretched, public hospitals underfunded, testing kits not available.

The reality is that reported cases in India have not only increased steadily but also steadily accelerated, and yet testing per capita is still among the lowest of the top 25 countries affected (Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, and Bangladesh also have extremely low per capita testing figures) - and the number of tests would need to be multiplied by about 20 to put it in the same ballpark as most other countries.

Last edited by Jerseygirl; Jun 7th 2020 at 3:29 pm. Reason: Cocked up quote
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Old Jun 7th 2020, 2:26 pm
  #44  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
That's quite normal isn't it ? It's a novel coronavirus. There's no known built in immunity. Indian overall case data is orders of magnitudes less than the average westerner would guess, and the best typically heard is a collection of stereotypes they have about India, not actual data. Indian case doubling rate slowed from 3.5 days prior to lockdown, to 7.8 a week after lockdown, to 10.2 days on April 28, and approx 15 days now, corresponding to a R0 of under 1.5 . Without actual numbers, 'increasing' means very little and has no context or utility. India hit 16K cases around April 18 and has twice that number now.

The most recent case data growth is correlated to the relaxation of the national lockdown, which first ran until April 15, and then was extended to May 3. Every country will have to figure out how to effectively exit lockdown while maintaining case count growth rate to levels its own system can manage. Some will do so having already been ravaged by massive medical system overload (Italy, Spain, NY area in US, parts of UK).

Others like India will have flattened the curve weeks ago and not having had to deal with an escalating medical crisis combined with shortage of medicines and PPE - are able to skip the part where they have to deal with millions in deaths that would otherwise have occured, and are now focused on how to ensure that case count growth clusters are identified and isolated, on the backs of weeks of extensive tracking and information gathering, as they work out how to open up their economy in a progressive manner.
So here we are five weeks later, and things aren't looking quite so rosy for India. Or is this BBC report describing a different India - hospitals stretched, public hospitals underfunded, testing kits not available.

The reality is that reported cases in India have not only increased steadily but also steadily accelerated, and yet testing per capita is still among the lowest of the top 25 countries affected (Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, and Bangladesh also have extremely low per capita testing figures) - and the number of tests would need to be multiplied by about 20 to put it in the same ballpark as most other countries.
The problem with describing 'India' is that there is no 'one' India. My south Indian home town has had no deaths. Pune which had one of the worst case numbers is now coming out of lock-down. Karnataka has been low in cases.
Mumbai because of population density and large areas of poverty is now not surprisingly increasing in case numbers. (A distant elderly cousin admitted with heart problem caught virus there and has died this week.)
Delhi the original large case area is a global hub.
We left on one of the last flights out in March----temperature tested everywhere --masks. On landing at Birmingham airport UK -----nothing!!! Just got a taxi and left.

Last edited by Jerseygirl; Jun 7th 2020 at 3:30 pm. Reason: Cocked up quote
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Old Jun 7th 2020, 3:54 pm
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Back to the original question posed in post #1.

There are now only 14 people who are still in the race to have given a correct prediction, especially as some countries, such as Brazil and Russia are known to be under-reporting deaths, and it likely many others are too, if only for lack of testing. So the true death count almost certainly already exceeds 500,000.

And of the 14, the chances of five of those being correct has to be pretty slim with global daily deaths reported still increasing, and most countries that had any sort of lock-down, now relaxing it, apparently primarily for economic reasons, so phase II of the pandemic awaits.

Last edited by Pulaski; Jun 7th 2020 at 3:56 pm.
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