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Global Corona Death predictions

View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 – 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 – 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 – 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Global Corona Death predictions

Old May 5th 2020, 6:08 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
I "cheated" by waiting until now to vote, and I am totally comfortable voting for 1million plus. Many of the countries that are now considering "opening up" (UK, Spain, Italy, etc.) are still reporting significant numbers of new infections every day, and the US, which never really "locked down" in any meaningful sense is also talking about "opening up" when the number of new daily infections in the US has barely even leveled off. ..... Then if you look at other countries, in the past week or so numbers have really started to escalate in Russia and Brazil, and from what I have read, the number of infections in Brazil are apparently severely understated. Then there are countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria, where there is a massive population, considerable poverty, and large cities where the idea of "social distancing" being even possible, is a joke. 2-3 yeas from now I could see fatalities easily reaching 3m-5m.
You're not reading the question, or it wasn't clear... I'm not talking about the actual numbers, I'm talking about when we stop reporting them 24 hours a day. Soon other numbers will become more pressing.
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Old May 5th 2020, 6:14 pm
  #17  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
You're not reading the question, or it wasn't clear... I'm not talking about the actual numbers, I'm talking about when we stop reporting them 24 hours a day. Soon other numbers will become more pressing.
It depends on your sources - if you're talking about "mainstream media" you may have a point. My sources are John Hopkins University's web site and Worldometer's coronavirus web page, I expect that they will be updated daily for several years to come. That said, if the "second wave" of infections comes as predicted by some better-informed minds than me, predict, and it is worse than the first wave, as some predict, then daily numbers will likely continue to be reported by mainstream media for 2-3 years.
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Old May 5th 2020, 6:22 pm
  #18  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
It depends on your sources - if you're talking about "mainstream media" you may have a point. My sources are John Hopkins University's web site and Worldometer's coronavirus web page, I expect that they will be updated daily for several years to come. That said, if the "second wave" of infections comes as predicted by some better-informed minds than me, predict, and it is worse than the first wave, as some predict, then daily numbers will likely continue to be reported by mainstream media for 2-3 years.
Total Corona deaths we report on mainstream media outlets such as sky-news or bbc news before we give up reporting such numbers and move on to other news items?

yes, apart from the sanitation, the aqueduct...
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Old May 5th 2020, 6:27 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Total Corona deaths we report on mainstream media outlets such as sky-news or bbc news before we give up reporting such numbers and move on to other news items?

yes, apart from the sanitation, the aqueduct...
Huh?

I think a more interesting question is which country is going to be the first to have a coup, civil war, or other sort of traumatic "regime change" as a result of coronavirus or the resulting economic melt-down, including the collapse of oil prices. I'd place a small wager on Venezuela being one such country, if not the first.
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Old May 5th 2020, 10:36 pm
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Then there are countries like India
I can say something about India. It's true that cities are crowded and there is/was a significant risk of uncontrolled transmission. These urban crowding realities - like in China - led India to act very early and decisively. The first Indian case was a medical student returning from Wuhan, on Jan 30. Within a week (Feb 5), major airports had health questionnaires and temperature scanners operating (as useless as they might have been in retrospect - they simply reapplied the SARS/MERS SOP) and air traffic to Hong Kong was halted. A couple of days later, all traffic from mainland China was halted - despite an angry response from China. All residents had to register their cellphone numbers at arrival and got called for 2-3 weeks asking to report any adverse symptoms.

By mid/late Febuary, air traffic from the middle east and then Europe was halted. Compare this to the fact that the US left the door wide open for European travelers to cripple NY/NJ. By 2nd week of March, India had suspended all tourist visas. From 3rd week of March, India imposed the largest national lockdown in the world - a 3 week enforced national shutdown. All rail , road and air traffic was shut in the process . This is currently being slowly lifted in phases, with red zones remaining under full lockdown and amber zones able to relax measures more. This has been applied in cities down to the block level, with hot zones being completely locked down within a 2km radius area.

Meanwhile, as home to some of the world's largest vaccine producers and medical equipment makers, India ramped up production of everything from paracetamol to HCQ (it is the world's largest producer), relaxing export curbs and approving exports to dozens of countries - US, UK and most of western Europe among them. Mid March, the government confirmed that all Covid-19 testing will be covered by the new comprehensive national healthcare program, which currently has 550 million subscribers. The Indian government launched the Aarogya Setu Covid tracking and information dissemination app, which became the world's most downloaded app in its first 2 weeks , and currently has probably 120-150 million users in its first full month (total cellphone subscriber base is 1.2 billion, with approximately 450 million smarphone users).

India has many problems, but also has the ability to command and deploy a massive amount of medical and technological resources. It also has a leadership with extremely high approval ratings who have been able to isolate clusters that have been tracked since the beginning. The major clusters were Kerala (inbounding traffic from Persian Gulf and medical students from China), Bombay/Pune clusters (manufacturing/business travelers from China and EMEA) and New Delhi due to the Tablighi Jamaat fundamentalist Muslim gathering, who were the single largest source of spread due to refusal to cooperate with authorities. Despite this, the country has largely followed the government's directives without the kind of nonsensical anti-lockdown protests seen in the west.

India's current statistics are available at the MOHFW site:
Total cases: 31967
Deaths: 1583
Recovered: 13160

At a time when multiple formal clinical trials are in progress and a lot of anecdotal claims abound, India has a history of widespread anti-malarial drug (HCQ) use, and near universal BCG innoculation for TB. Both these have been claimed to beneficial, with Indian physicians anecdotally stating that the HCQ/Azithromycin/zinc regime - given in ICMR mandated dosages very early on when symptoms occur - has been effective. There's no shortage of supply, with over 110 million tablets already distributed and a further 120 million ordered 3 days ago. Approximately 5 million of this was exported, with the rest having been consumed domestically.

Last edited by sun_burn; May 5th 2020 at 10:39 pm.
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Old May 5th 2020, 10:43 pm
  #21  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
I can say something about India. ....
And yet the numbers of new cases reported every day in India increased steadily throughout April and are now accelerating, even noticeably in the past four days, during which time new infections per day have doubled.
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Old May 5th 2020, 11:37 pm
  #22  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
And yet the numbers of new cases reported every day in India increased steadily throughout April and are now accelerating, even noticeably in the past four days, during which time new infections per day have doubled.
That's quite normal isn't it ? It's a novel coronavirus. There's no known built in immunity. Indian overall case data is orders of magnitudes less than the average westerner would guess, and the best typically heard is a collection of stereotypes they have about India, not actual data. Indian case doubling rate slowed from 3.5 days prior to lockdown, to 7.8 a week after lockdown, to 10.2 days on April 28, and approx 15 days now, corresponding to a R0 of under 1.5 . Without actual numbers, 'increasing' means very little and has no context or utility. India hit 16K cases around April 18 and has twice that number now.

The most recent case data growth is correlated to the relaxation of the national lockdown, which first ran until April 15, and then was extended to May 3. Every country will have to figure out how to effectively exit lockdown while maintaining case count growth rate to levels its own system can manage. Some will do so having already been ravaged by massive medical system overload (Italy, Spain, NY area in US, parts of UK).

Others like India will have flattened the curve weeks ago and not having had to deal with an escalating medical crisis combined with shortage of medicines and PPE - are able to skip the part where they have to deal with millions in deaths that would otherwise have occured, and are now focused on how to ensure that case count growth clusters are identified and isolated, on the backs of weeks of extensive tracking and information gathering, as they work out how to open up their economy in a progressive manner.

Last edited by sun_burn; May 5th 2020 at 11:39 pm.
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Old May 6th 2020, 5:23 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
That's quite normal isn't it ? It's a novel coronavirus. There's no known built in immunity. Indian overall case data is orders of magnitudes less than the average westerner would guess, and the best typically heard is a collection of stereotypes they have about India, not actual data. Indian case doubling rate slowed from 3.5 days prior to lockdown, to 7.8 a week after lockdown, to 10.2 days on April 28, and approx 15 days now, corresponding to a R0 of under 1.5 . Without actual numbers, 'increasing' means very little and has no context or utility. India hit 16K cases around April 18 and has twice that number now.

The most recent case data growth is correlated to the relaxation of the national lockdown, which first ran until April 15, and then was extended to May 3. Every country will have to figure out how to effectively exit lockdown while maintaining case count growth rate to levels its own system can manage. Some will do so having already been ravaged by massive medical system overload (Italy, Spain, NY area in US, parts of UK).

Others like India will have flattened the curve weeks ago and not having had to deal with an escalating medical crisis combined with shortage of medicines and PPE - are able to skip the part where they have to deal with millions in deaths that would otherwise have occured, and are now focused on how to ensure that case count growth clusters are identified and isolated, on the backs of weeks of extensive tracking and information gathering, as they work out how to open up their economy in a progressive manner.
The lockdown is generally extended to the 18th in most states (excluding what has been categorised as green), plus now to the 29th in Telangana for example. I don't think the numbers recorded in India reflect the actual infected numbers (like most countries in the world) mainly as the testing is not widespread at all - though the lockdown is obviously an acknowledgement of that they believe the numbers are higher.
The full truth will be revealed in the higher than usual deaths calculated in the aftermath I guess.
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Old May 6th 2020, 6:12 am
  #24  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Testing is not the only approach to pandemic mitigation, or even the most effective one. The early tests had a multiple day turnaround time. They continue to generate false positives and negatives.

When you impose among the most draconian restrictions of any country quite early, testing can focus on clusters identified quite early. This is as opposed to the US and UK that left international air travel to hot zones wide open until quite recently.

The Telangana case clusters for example are almost 90% due to absconding Tablighi Jamaat congregants. That event was the largest source of infections in several states. On the flip side, Kerala which had the earliest cases and was an early contributor to case counts, is down to >50 day case doubling rate, ie R0 much below 1.

What the original posts were about, I suspect, is the trite implication that ‘third world countries’ (a term with no meaning after 1991) have weak institutions and weak administrative capability, making for a potentially lethal combination during a pandemic.

India however, is undoubtedly a developing nation but has relatively strong institutions for its income level, and the ability to marshal national resources to a cause. It conducts elections flawlessly using electronic voting every 5 years with an electorate now at 850 million people. The national health insurance plan covers 550 million, less than 2 years since since announcement.

Arguably the US and UK are doing far worse. They did not consider the magnitude of the risk early enough . They’re dependent entirely on the existing capability of their institutions and not their leaderships, which are a daily clown show. In comparison, India recognized the risk and its own constraints early and acted decisively.

There’s nothing scientifically revealing about ‘true numbers will reveal themselves’ . I’ll reiterate that ‘flattening the curve’ does not reduce counts - it just spreads them out so the system can cope. We are dealing with a disease with no cure, no consistent symptoms, no effective mitigation or treatment, several anecdotal claims of efficacy, and outright quackery.

Under these circumstances, a nation that acts decisively and recognizes its own constraints while maximizing its strengths at producing medicines and material cheaply and quickly, ought to be applauded for its efforts.
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Old May 6th 2020, 6:17 am
  #25  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
Testing is not the only approach to pandemic mitigation, or even the most effective one. The early tests had a multiple day turnaround time. They continue to generate false positives and negatives.

When you impose among the most draconian restrictions of any country quite early, testing can focus on clusters identified quite early. This is as opposed to the US and UK that left international air travel to hot zones wide open until quite recently.

The Telangana case clusters for example are almost 90% due to absconding Tablighi Jamaat congregants. That event was the largest source of infections in several states. On the flip side, Kerala which had the earliest cases and was an early contributor to case counts, is down to >50 day case doubling rate, ie R0 much below 1.

What the original posts were about, I suspect, is the trite implication that ‘third world countries’ (a term with no meaning after 1991) have weak institutions and weak administrative capability, making for a potentially lethal combination during a pandemic.

India however, is undoubtedly a developing nation but has relatively strong institutions for its income level, and the ability to marshal national resources to a cause. It conducts elections flawlessly using electronic voting every 5 years with an electorate now at 850 million people. The national health insurance plan covers 550 million, less than 2 years since since announcement.

Arguably the US and UK are doing far worse. They did not consider the magnitude of the risk early enough . They’re dependent entirely on the existing capability of their institutions and not their leaderships, which are a daily clown show. In comparison, India recognized the risk and its own constraints early and acted decisively.

There’s nothing scientifically revealing about ‘true numbers will reveal themselves’ . I’ll reiterate that ‘flattening the curve’ does not reduce counts - it just spreads them out so the system can cope. We are dealing with a disease with no cure, no consistent symptoms, no effective mitigation or treatment, several anecdotal claims of efficacy, and outright quackery.

Under these circumstances, a nation that acts decisively and recognizes its own constraints while maximizing its strengths at producing medicines and material cheaply and quickly, ought to be applauded for its efforts.
Karma.
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Old May 6th 2020, 6:33 am
  #26  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
Testing is not the only approach to pandemic mitigation, or even the most effective one. The early tests had a multiple day turnaround time. They continue to generate false positives and negatives.

When you impose among the most draconian restrictions of any country quite early, testing can focus on clusters identified quite early. This is as opposed to the US and UK that left international air travel to hot zones wide open until quite recently.

The Telangana case clusters for example are almost 90% due to absconding Tablighi Jamaat congregants. That event was the largest source of infections in several states. On the flip side, Kerala which had the earliest cases and was an early contributor to case counts, is down to >50 day case doubling rate, ie R0 much below 1.

What the original posts were about, I suspect, is the trite implication that ‘third world countries’ (a term with no meaning after 1991) have weak institutions and weak administrative capability, making for a potentially lethal combination during a pandemic.

India however, is undoubtedly a developing nation but has relatively strong institutions for its income level, and the ability to marshal national resources to a cause. It conducts elections flawlessly using electronic voting every 5 years with an electorate now at 850 million people. The national health insurance plan covers 550 million, less than 2 years since since announcement.

Arguably the US and UK are doing far worse. They did not consider the magnitude of the risk early enough . They’re dependent entirely on the existing capability of their institutions and not their leaderships, which are a daily clown show. In comparison, India recognized the risk and its own constraints early and acted decisively.

There’s nothing scientifically revealing about ‘true numbers will reveal themselves’ . I’ll reiterate that ‘flattening the curve’ does not reduce counts - it just spreads them out so the system can cope. We are dealing with a disease with no cure, no consistent symptoms, no effective mitigation or treatment, several anecdotal claims of efficacy, and outright quackery.

Under these circumstances, a nation that acts decisively and recognizes its own constraints while maximizing its strengths at producing medicines and material cheaply and quickly, ought to be applauded for its efforts.
You're like Bipat. I love it when people always come to India's defence. I agree with you, especially if we overlook the fact that they are going to repatriate 200,000 Indians from the Gulf back to India... by boat.


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Old May 6th 2020, 7:10 am
  #27  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
You're like Bipat. I love it when people always come to India's defence. I agree with you, especially if we overlook the fact that they are going to repatriate 200,000 Indians from the Gulf back to India... by boat.
I was tempted to stop reading when the Indian response was compared to the UK and US specifically....but I'm too distracted by what happened to the third world after '91.
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Old May 6th 2020, 8:06 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
I was tempted to stop reading when the Indian response was compared to the UK and US specifically....but I'm too distracted by what happened to the third world after '91.
Third world countries didn't end in 1991. Just Russia broke up and made a lot more of them.
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Old May 6th 2020, 8:17 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by sun_burn View Post
Testing is not the only approach to pandemic mitigation, or even the most effective one. The early tests had a multiple day turnaround time. They continue to generate false positives and negatives.

When you impose among the most draconian restrictions of any country quite early, testing can focus on clusters identified quite early. This is as opposed to the US and UK that left international air travel to hot zones wide open until quite recently.

The Telangana case clusters for example are almost 90% due to absconding Tablighi Jamaat congregants. That event was the largest source of infections in several states. On the flip side, Kerala which had the earliest cases and was an early contributor to case counts, is down to >50 day case doubling rate, ie R0 much below 1.

What the original posts were about, I suspect, is the trite implication that ‘third world countries’ (a term with no meaning after 1991) have weak institutions and weak administrative capability, making for a potentially lethal combination during a pandemic.

India however, is undoubtedly a developing nation but has relatively strong institutions for its income level, and the ability to marshal national resources to a cause. It conducts elections flawlessly using electronic voting every 5 years with an electorate now at 850 million people. The national health insurance plan covers 550 million, less than 2 years since since announcement.

Arguably the US and UK are doing far worse. They did not consider the magnitude of the risk early enough . They’re dependent entirely on the existing capability of their institutions and not their leaderships, which are a daily clown show. In comparison, India recognized the risk and its own constraints early and acted decisively.

There’s nothing scientifically revealing about ‘true numbers will reveal themselves’ . I’ll reiterate that ‘flattening the curve’ does not reduce counts - it just spreads them out so the system can cope. We are dealing with a disease with no cure, no consistent symptoms, no effective mitigation or treatment, several anecdotal claims of efficacy, and outright quackery.

Under these circumstances, a nation that acts decisively and recognizes its own constraints while maximizing its strengths at producing medicines and material cheaply and quickly, ought to be applauded for its efforts.
Testing levels in India are woeful. Under 1000 per million. Even in the Uk which has been heavily criticised for the slow start to test compared to other European countries, it is now up to around 20,000 per million.

If a country isn't testing there's no way they can have an idea of what is happening in the country and it makes the figures meaningless. Perhaps this massive Indian organizational capacity could be used to test a bit more, and find the true extent of the contagion.
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Old May 6th 2020, 8:20 am
  #30  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Third world countries didn't end in 1991. Just Russia broke up and made a lot more of them.
It was in 2012 I was asked to do open days recruiting for engineers labelled as 'TCNs'. That's a long time after 1991.
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