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Global Corona Death predictions

View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 – 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 – 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 – 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Global Corona Death predictions

Old Oct 15th 2020, 6:51 am
  #181  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by csdf View Post
Aye, but with no sign of any return to restrictions, unlike the whole of Europe.
a policy that seems to be matched to the available hospital capacity
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Old Oct 15th 2020, 6:54 am
  #182  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

All I'm learning from the UK at the moment is that you can't trust Northerners to not spoil it for everyone.
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Old Oct 15th 2020, 7:49 am
  #183  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
a policy that seems to be matched to the available hospital capacity
Yes, that's right. Though the lesson from Europe seems to be that things can very rapidly get out of hand unless you're prepared to act in advance of things getting too bad. It's not like Paris and Liverpool and Madrid didn't also say "our policy is to keep things open, because our hospitals are fine and deaths are low".
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Old Oct 15th 2020, 12:35 pm
  #184  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
All I'm learning from the UK at the moment is that you can't trust Northerners to not spoil it for everyone.
Scousers getting ready for lockdown.
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Old Oct 15th 2020, 12:37 pm
  #185  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by nonthaburi View Post
Scousers getting ready for lockdown.
https://youtu.be/MUDSg0ePEfk
I've just had to call scouse land as there is some issue with my new passport application. I thought the line was bad but then remembered the crackles were her accent.
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Old Oct 15th 2020, 3:08 pm
  #186  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
I've just had to call The Socialist Democratic People's Republic of Scouseland as there is some issue with my new passport application. I thought the line was bad but then remembered the crackles were her accent.
FTFY.
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Old Oct 21st 2020, 5:04 pm
  #187  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
I've just had to call scouse land as there is some issue with my new passport application. I thought the line was bad but then remembered the crackles were her accent.
Was probably both. The UK phone systems are a joke. I was in butt**** nowhere the other day (RAK) and had 4G to try and find my way back to civilization. I don't get phone signal in the UK if I have the cheek to move from Mother's lounge to the kitchen.
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Old Oct 25th 2020, 1:14 pm
  #188  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

My friend Craig Murray has some thoughts on the virus
"Covid-19 and the Political Utility of Fear "

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk
Mainstream career politicians routinely brush off Craig and his ideas. "The man is mad," said my MSP. I think he is remarkably sane. He is the one who dared to say, "The Emperor is naked ! He has no clothes !"

Last edited by scot47; Oct 25th 2020 at 1:22 pm.
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Old Oct 26th 2020, 2:22 pm
  #189  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

At this stage, I think most people agree that the mortality rate is lower than initially feared, particularly for younger people. But it still seems likely that if left un-managed, the virus is so contagious that it would fill up hospitals until there's no room left for anyone else. The UK statistics suggest that 6% of all covid19 cases for adults aged below 65 were admitted to hospital at some point. 6% of 22 million people is nearly 1.5mm people needing hospital treatment, most of whom would need it in the rough same time. The only way it might not be as bad as this is if you believe that the true hospitalisation rates are actually much lower, because of the poor state of testing in England. But that's just a belief, with no evidence, so it seems a bit risky to just go for it and hope for the best.

44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
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Old Oct 26th 2020, 2:59 pm
  #190  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by csdf View Post
At this stage, I think most people agree that the mortality rate is lower than initially feared, particularly for younger people. But it still seems likely that if left un-managed, the virus is so contagious that it would fill up hospitals until there's no room left for anyone else. The UK statistics suggest that 6% of all covid19 cases for adults aged below 65 were admitted to hospital at some point. 6% of 22 million people is nearly 1.5mm people needing hospital treatment, most of whom would need it in the rough same time. The only way it might not be as bad as this is if you believe that the true hospitalisation rates are actually much lower, because of the poor state of testing in England. But that's just a belief, with no evidence, so it seems a bit risky to just go for it and hope for the best.

44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
The UK has one of the highest testing rates for a large country, but annecdotally there has been the suggestion that the actual exposure/ antibody rates may be considerably higher than the reported infection rates. A study in New York (one of the orginal US hotspots) published as long ago as June IIRC, suggested that the actual exposure was 10 times the reported number of positive tests, and I have seen at least an annedotal assertion by a medical professional that this may also be true in the UK. This may be complicated by a recently published study by a Swedish university that found that 30% of people tested had antibodies to covid-19 that appear to predate the current pandemic, and are thought to have originated from exposure to another coronavirus, such as the common cold.
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Old Oct 27th 2020, 4:58 am
  #191  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by csdf View Post
44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
I got the denominator wrong (I was counting all cases rather than all adults under 65). Fixing that raises the hospitalization rate to about 9%.
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