View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 β 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 β 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 β 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll
Global Corona Death predictions
#181
#183
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Yes, that's right. Though the lesson from Europe seems to be that things can very rapidly get out of hand unless you're prepared to act in advance of things getting too bad. It's not like Paris and Liverpool and Madrid didn't also say "our policy is to keep things open, because our hospitals are fine and deaths are low".
#184
#185
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Scousers getting ready for lockdown.
https://youtu.be/MUDSg0ePEfk
https://youtu.be/MUDSg0ePEfk
#186
#187
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
#188
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Nov 2012
Location: bute
Posts: 9,740
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
My friend Craig Murray has some thoughts on the virus
"Covid-19 and the Political Utility of Fear "
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk
Mainstream career politicians routinely brush off Craig and his ideas. "The man is mad," said my MSP. I think he is remarkably sane. He is the one who dared to say, "The Emperor is naked ! He has no clothes !"
"Covid-19 and the Political Utility of Fear "
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk
Mainstream career politicians routinely brush off Craig and his ideas. "The man is mad," said my MSP. I think he is remarkably sane. He is the one who dared to say, "The Emperor is naked ! He has no clothes !"
Last edited by scot47; Oct 25th 2020 at 1:22 pm.
#189
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
At this stage, I think most people agree that the mortality rate is lower than initially feared, particularly for younger people. But it still seems likely that if left un-managed, the virus is so contagious that it would fill up hospitals until there's no room left for anyone else. The UK statistics suggest that 6% of all covid19 cases for adults aged below 65 were admitted to hospital at some point. 6% of 22 million people is nearly 1.5mm people needing hospital treatment, most of whom would need it in the rough same time. The only way it might not be as bad as this is if you believe that the true hospitalisation rates are actually much lower, because of the poor state of testing in England. But that's just a belief, with no evidence, so it seems a bit risky to just go for it and hope for the best.
44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
#190
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
At this stage, I think most people agree that the mortality rate is lower than initially feared, particularly for younger people. But it still seems likely that if left un-managed, the virus is so contagious that it would fill up hospitals until there's no room left for anyone else. The UK statistics suggest that 6% of all covid19 cases for adults aged below 65 were admitted to hospital at some point. 6% of 22 million people is nearly 1.5mm people needing hospital treatment, most of whom would need it in the rough same time. The only way it might not be as bad as this is if you believe that the true hospitalisation rates are actually much lower, because of the poor state of testing in England. But that's just a belief, with no evidence, so it seems a bit risky to just go for it and hope for the best.
44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
#191
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England
#192
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
To recap, the question was "Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?"
I voted for 100-250k. We have only just passed 250k but it seems that lockdowns are being released around the world to restart economies. The next phase will be to stop reporting the numbers and media-fatigue kicks in as people decide that they value their freedom and jobs more than they do their neighbour's grandparents (as of course, it'll never happen to your own).
We are rapidly going to transition from reporting deaths to job losses and enjoy the new normal of half-arsed social distancing and cheap but socially unacceptable holidays.
I voted for 100-250k. We have only just passed 250k but it seems that lockdowns are being released around the world to restart economies. The next phase will be to stop reporting the numbers and media-fatigue kicks in as people decide that they value their freedom and jobs more than they do their neighbour's grandparents (as of course, it'll never happen to your own).
We are rapidly going to transition from reporting deaths to job losses and enjoy the new normal of half-arsed social distancing and cheap but socially unacceptable holidays.
#193
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Yes. The way deaths are recorded is very questionable. The fact is that it's just not a deadly as we first thought.
#194
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
One thing I have learned that as an exercise for detecting whoppers and knob ends covid-19 is only second to a Trump failed election campaign.
#195
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
'Another 1,564 coronavirus deaths have been reported in the UK - the highest daily figure since the pandemic began following the late addition of some data going as far back as May...'
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...1-564-12186910