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Global Corona Death predictions

View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 – 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 – 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 – 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Global Corona Death predictions

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Old Jul 11th 2020, 5:20 pm
  #106  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse
genuinely surprised but hopeful an earthquake or hurricane will come to save us.
So you bet on the wrong spot then...?

I confess that I only came across this thread a couple of weeks ago, but would have bet with certainty (but regret) on the 1,000,000+ category any time after late March.

And yes, I recognize that part of the thread premise is how long the fatality count would remain a consistently "front page" type of story.

In that particular regard, I didn't doubt that the daily advance of the fatality count would remain "front-page news" (to the extent that such a concept really still exists) for months to come, as it peaked and subsided in various countries and regions around the world.

What I didn't foresee was the newly confected controversy in the US about how significant the "death count" is vs the infection count, which virtually guarantees that fatality totals will remain front-of-reported-news for yet more months to come, as part of an endless debate about when and whether economic reopening phases are too risky or not, or whether new lockdowns are needed when cases flare up.

Last edited by abner; Jul 11th 2020 at 5:23 pm.
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Old Jul 12th 2020, 5:05 am
  #107  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

I would like to change my vote.

America see this as some sort of 'who can be the worst and die the most competition' it would seem.
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Old Jul 12th 2020, 7:07 am
  #108  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by abner
So you bet on the wrong spot then...?
Yup, although in my defence I didn't have the benefit of hindsight like the late posters to this thread

I'm amazed and disappointed by all of this media reaction though, as they are doing everything they can now to keep it alive in the press. This is especially interesting as the data suggests that it's nowhere near as bad as first thought. If you speak to the average person on the street, they want life to continue and seem happy to move on. Those that don't are still locking themselves up in their houses sanitising their pizza boxes.

The worst set of people are those abusing the situation, of which there are many. These people are too scared to return to work but at the same time are posting on Instagram their trips to the beach and staycations... usually while moaning that people are not respecting social distancing. Those people would all get kicked out of any shop I ran.
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Old Jul 12th 2020, 11:04 am
  #109  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse
This is especially interesting as the data suggests that it's nowhere near as bad as first thought.
Errrm, no. It's every bit as bad as first thought, but we're getting better at treating it, hiding the older folks from it, and in proportional terms, exposing younger cohorts of the population to it instead. The recent lowering of the fatality rates in many countries is attributable to that, rather than any actual lessening of the severity of the disease.


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Old Jul 12th 2020, 11:52 am
  #110  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by abner
Errrm, no. It's every bit as bad as first thought, but we're getting better at treating it, hiding the older folks from it, and in proportional terms, exposing younger cohorts of the population to it instead. The recent lowering of the fatality rates in many countries is attributable to that, rather than any actual lessening of the severity of the disease.
We were told it was going to kill us all. Now it seems to only kill the old or sick and we are now happy to expose the young to it. If that doesn’t make it less deadly then I’m not sure what would.
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Old Jul 12th 2020, 12:19 pm
  #111  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse;12880451[i
]We were told it was going to kill us all[/i]. Now it seems to only kill the old or sick and we are now happy to expose the young to it. If that doesn’t make it less deadly then I’m not sure what would.
That's not true at all.
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Old Jul 12th 2020, 12:38 pm
  #112  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by nonthaburi
That's not true at all.
It was certainly implied. Think back to all the pictures of the young people that did die from it that we’re all over sky news etc.

then we found out that most of them had some other issue.

Last edited by Millhouse; Jul 12th 2020 at 12:40 pm.
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Old Jul 12th 2020, 2:29 pm
  #113  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by abner
Errrm, no. It's every bit as bad as first thought, but we're getting better at treating it, hiding the older folks from it, and in proportional terms, exposing younger cohorts of the population to it instead. The recent lowering of the fatality rates in many countries is attributable to that, rather than any actual lessening of the severity of the disease.
And anyone bothering to read the serious reporting, not just the headlines and reporting of political noise, will already know that many survivors of hospitalization emerge with moderate to severe lung damage, which will make them vulnerable to other diseases, notably flu, pneumonia, bronchitis and other lung diseases, for the rest of their life.

We will also find out later this year (i) if covid-19 behaves like flu and has an annual "season" during winter in the northern hemisphere, and (ii) whether a rapid fall in antibodies post-infection, which is reportedly a common phenomenon, will mean you can catch covid-19 a second time, or more. .... Per above, if your first infection left you with lung damage, I don't fancy your chances if you catch it again!
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Old Jul 13th 2020, 7:29 am
  #114  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

If your lungs are damaged, you have fewer ACE2 receptors left to infect a second time around, so you're quids in.
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Old Jul 13th 2020, 8:08 am
  #115  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse
It was certainly implied. Think back to all the pictures of the young people that did die from it that we’re all over sky news etc.

then we found out that most of them had some other issue.

Thousands of young people die of strokes or heart attacks or flu every year....

They rarely make front news, but with Covid, you see headlines on "17 year old sucuumbs to Covid" with the underlying message that even perfectly healthy people are dying

Why were people pushing the "6 feet apart or 6 feet under" line?

It implies that anyone not staying 6 feet apart from others will die....
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Old Jul 13th 2020, 8:13 am
  #116  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Maxima
Thousands of young people die of strokes or heart attacks or flu every year....

They rarely make front news, but with Covid, you see headlines on "17 year old sucuumbs to Covid" with the underlying message that even perfectly healthy people are dying

Why were people pushing the "6 feet apart or 6 feet under" line?

It implies that anyone not staying 6 feet apart from others will die....
Spot on. It’s the implied message. In the beginning, perfectly healthy young people got scared by all the media attention. Now we complain that after locking them up for no real reason they go out and party. I’m no 5Ger here but the way the media has behaved has certainly added fuel to the nut job conspiracists.


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Old Jul 13th 2020, 8:26 am
  #117  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

I've always taken it as if I don't act responsibly, it might harm someone else. I'm young enough that I hope I'd be fine if I got it or hopefully even asymptomatic which appears to be a large number of people.

But if I have it and give it to, say, my 69yr old Father if I was around him and he got seriously ill, it wouldn't be a very nice feeling at all.
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Old Jul 13th 2020, 9:10 am
  #118  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse
It was certainly implied. Think back to all the pictures of the young people that did die from it that we’re all over sky news etc.

then we found out that most of them had some other issue.
We must have been watching different news then. In the daily news conferences government spokesmen, or medical officers, or doctors generally said time and time again, that for the vast majority of people it was going to be a minor illness , with most people having minor or no symptoms. Around 20% would have more severe symptoms, and maybe 5% would be seriously ill . There was never an implication that we were all going to die.

Stories of young people dying were just more newsworthy due to their rarity.
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Old Jul 13th 2020, 10:33 am
  #119  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by nonthaburi
We must have been watching different news then. In the daily news conferences government spokesmen, or medical officers, or doctors generally said time and time again, that for the vast majority of people it was going to be a minor illness , with most people having minor or no symptoms. Around 20% would have more severe symptoms, and maybe 5% would be seriously ill . There was never an implication that we were all going to die.

Stories of young people dying were just more newsworthy due to their rarity.
You are forgetting that you’re top 10pct - you not only watch the government broadcasts but you understood them. The rest watch ITV, sky and read the sun.
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Old Jul 13th 2020, 12:36 pm
  #120  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Now we complain that after locking them up for no real reason they go out and party.
I suppose there was the forlorn hope that they might actually care about the parents and grandparents they'd kill off, even if they were just fine themselves.
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