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GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Old Feb 25th 2010, 5:44 am
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Default GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

I've always liked Swiss banks............

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...UBS-warns.html

....and it's touching 1.5330 as I write, which means:

GBP/AED = 5.63.
GBP/SAR = 5.75.
GBP/BHD = 0.5780.
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 6:04 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

i get paid in $$ so i would love a 1:1...
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 8:19 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by commander View Post
i get paid in $$ so i would love a 1:1...
Moi aussi.
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 8:23 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by commander View Post
i get paid in $$ so i would love a 1:1...
Anyone earning any currency pegged to the USD is effectively earning USD....so me 2!

Although don't give a cr.ap about the sterling.

Feeling particularly chuffed about my timing of my USD NZD savings transfers back and forth though.
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 9:13 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by The Dean View Post
I've always liked Swiss banks............

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...UBS-warns.html

....and it's touching 1.5330 as I write, which means:

GBP/AED = 5.63.
GBP/SAR = 5.75.
GBP/BHD = 0.5780.
......... and at 09:38 GMT, a new low of 1.5270 was touched........
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 10:13 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

According to my calculations, if the rate fell to 1.25 which surely would be the bottom (1.05 seems rather extreme) this would represent an exchange rate of approx. Dhs4.59 per GBP. Great news for those able to save a few thousand Dhs a month to remit back home.
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 4:15 pm
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by The Dean View Post
I've always liked Swiss banks............

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...UBS-warns.html

....and it's touching 1.5330 as I write, which means:

GBP/AED = 5.63.
GBP/SAR = 5.75.
GBP/BHD = 0.5780.
As much as I would love this to... it's not going to happen! I know a few people (from UBS) who write these research reports. I fail to see what science they use or value they add in their analysis. They literally get yesterdays results and project the same forever on a straight line basis.

Remember when oil was 90USD and rising? the reports said it will hit 200USD. As soon as it started to drop I was seeing reports of 5-10USD.

One of them once said to me... when you look up, you can only see up. When you look down, you can only see down.

That said, I have some AED to move back home soon and was pleased to see today's results...
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 4:39 pm
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

The end is nigh...
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Old Feb 25th 2010, 6:12 pm
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by EmiratesMillhouse View Post
As much as I would love this to... it's not going to happen! I know a few people (from UBS) who write these research reports. I fail to see what science they use or value they add in their analysis. They literally get yesterdays results and project the same forever on a straight line basis.

Remember when oil was 90USD and rising? the reports said it will hit 200USD. As soon as it started to drop I was seeing reports of 5-10USD.

One of them once said to me... when you look up, you can only see up. When you look down, you can only see down.

That said, I have some AED to move back home soon and was pleased to see today's results...
I take a similar view, but from the opposite perspective. If a trend is established - up or down - I look for (a) reasons for it, and (b) what might turn it round.

Today I see (a) the UK economy is crap, we may lose our precious AAA-rating, and we may even default on our debts. And I see (b)....... er...... nothing.

Last edited by The Dean; Feb 25th 2010 at 6:13 pm. Reason: .
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Old Feb 26th 2010, 5:32 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by The Dean View Post
I take a similar view, but from the opposite perspective. If a trend is established - up or down - I look for (a) reasons for it, and (b) what might turn it round.

Today I see (a) the UK economy is crap, we may lose our precious AAA-rating, and we may even default on our debts. And I see (b)....... er...... nothing.
How about b) the US economy isn't exactly a bundle of fun right now, and the dollar can't be the flight-from-risk currency forever...
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Old Feb 26th 2010, 7:15 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by typical View Post
How about b) the US economy isn't exactly a bundle of fun right now, and the dollar can't be the flight-from-risk currency forever...
No sorry - I think recovery in the US will happen before, say, Europe. In some ways it already is, albeit in a patchy fashion. By definition, if Greece is in trouble, so are Germany and France (it is no longer possible, post-EMU, to 'arbitrage' between European currencies).

And I actually do think the USD will retain its status - it's the world's commodity currency, and the US has a stable government, and its capital market is one of the few places in the world that is big enough and liquid enough to absorb capital inflows without causing too much market disruption.
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Old Feb 26th 2010, 7:46 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

Originally Posted by The Dean View Post
No sorry - I think recovery in the US will happen before, say, Europe. In some ways it already is, albeit in a patchy fashion. By definition, if Greece is in trouble, so are Germany and France (it is no longer possible, post-EMU, to 'arbitrage' between European currencies).

And I actually do think the USD will retain its status - it's the world's commodity currency, and the US has a stable government, and its capital market is one of the few places in the world that is big enough and liquid enough to absorb capital inflows without causing too much market disruption.
Agreed.
It was only a few months back people started talking about the euro taking over the USD as the worlds reserve currency. The talk has died down pretty quick.
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Old Feb 26th 2010, 8:09 am
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Default Re: GBP/USD could fall to 1.05: report

I don't necessarily disagree, but I'll keep watching the US economy pretty closely. I don't think we've heard the end of bad news from there.

Note: I do not class the closing of Hummer as bad news
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