The Dean

In 'sympathy' with (and due to contagion from) the euro, the pound is getting hit this morning. At one point GBP/AED had fallen below 5.80 for the first time since late-January. Currently 'enjoying' a mini-recovery at 5.8150.

Jim Smith

The world economy is pretty screwed just now? Bit worrying for those of us approaching retirement!!!

hnd

Well for some it will be no surprise that the PIGS are coming home to roost!

That should conjure up something a bit different in your mind!!

Boomhauer

Anything to do with the US debt default deadline looming? Deadline to raise the debt ceiling is Aug 2nd. The White House and Republicans are arguing about rasing the debt ceiling.

The new head of the IMG Lagarde, has said that the US should raise it to avoid causing world economic problems .

hnd

I think that this is being driven pretty much by European factors.
The US situation is a bit of a sideshow at the moment, albeit it has massive potential if they don't get it sorted, and will continue to run in the background until they reach a political impasse and Gov't fails there.

Trading markets for many years taught me as soon as politicians get involved markets are almost impossible to predict / read as politicians will say / do things that suit their political goals which will not always be to be best long term advantage of solving the problem.

A very cynical view, but over many years it has saved me from making some big losses.

Millhouse

The prisoners' dilemma (note the apostrophe is intentional as we are all caught here). We mostly earn dollars or dollar equivalent, but probably have a long term interest in sterling or euros - what shitty currency should we back?

For me, my assets are c. 90% GBP, but more recently I put 30% of my monthly savings into USD. I won't change that, but I do wonder if it's worth holding some of those Chinese things (I mean cash, not the things from the York).

The US default risk is a real one - then again, so is the Euro, GBP in time...

UKCityGent

In the medium term gbp is going to take a hammering (well at least for the sumemr until Sept) - trend is still down and nothing has changed my mind (possibily even touching 1.50 against cable)

3 Euro countries have been downgraded recently
US has (slowly) realised the amount of debt

Paracletus

I'm toying with the idea of looking into some smaller currencies which have performed well recently, any ideas?

alfrombarking

GOLD.....

Paracletus

Hmm..heard gold was not very safe..Someone has shorted quite heavily on tihs and will stand to loose substantially if it goes up..and silver is being targeted too I have been told. I have no real clue, I never understood invisible money.

The Dean

Gold is the classic safe haven - i.e. in times of uncertainty, people sell other risk assets and buy gold. Never quite sure why - the gold price (which is quoted against USD) is just another exchange rate. One of the reasons may be that it has its own intrinsic value (you can't melt a euro down into its component parts), but I'm not convinced.

It's very strong right now though.................

Millhouse

I have two words for you...paper gold.

The Dean

Quite............. which is why I said it's just another exchange rate............

Paracletus

Buy silver, crash JP Morgan apparently.

The Dean

As you were............. well, that was short-lived: it's currently back up at around 5.93, after ratings agency Moody's warned they might downgrade the "AAA" rating enjoyed by the USA.

(No they won't)