Millhouse

So... what's next? May seems to be hanging on, the case for Ref2 isn't full clear. Crash out on 29th looks just as unlikley.

scot47

We have certainly had lots of evidence that the Machine in Westminster is broken beyond repair.

fezzer

No option is particularly palatable. No-deal will probably get voted down tonight, although will remain the natural fall-back position if nothing else changes. The least damaging outcome for the country would be Parliament agreeing that a "good deal" brexit was infact unobtainable, and article 50 is revoked. I'm guessing it's going to go down to the line though.

TheShed

As a Brexiteer, I am at my lowest point during the whole process. I really cannot see us getting out at all, and now as the laughing stock of Europe, Macron and Merkel will do everything else possible to make our lives totally miserable.

I no longer believe in British democracy or see any point in actually having a government.

weasel decentral

On the positive side I don't believe that it can be ****ed up any more at this point. You have reached **** up ground zero, the only way is up from here. I'd find it funnier if there wasn't a potential for the Republic to be affected by the sheer incompetence of all involved. Omni-shambles doesn't cover it, I am sure 'to Brexit' something will be coined as a phrase to describe utter incompetence in the future.

Millhouse

I still believe that you can always trust our government to do the right thing... once it has exhausted all of the other options.

We are close to having done that second part.

Irishbeekeeper

dominoman

As a Leaver, I find it all infinitely depressing. After the vote on June 23rd 2016 I was so excited and optimistic for the future of the UK. Never did I think that the machine of government, the BBC and the institutions would continue to fight and frustrate the decision to leave at every turn.

The delays have been so costly. Companies are losing money and people are losing jobs every day because of the delays. Utter incompetence of our government. Please May, just GO!

I'm an optimist and believe that one way or another we will end up leaving eventually, but for now this whole saga has turned us into a laughing stock.

captainflack

The problem is that even if 'brexit' happens, it will never stick.

The brexitters don't say it, but they know that the UK cannot really be "independent". If you're in the WTO, or do any trade deals, you're always subject to legal judgements and rules made outside your country, and enforced by judges (or arbitration etc.) outside of your jurisdiction. Nobody is going to make a deal where you get to be the referee as well as a player. Like a lot of the promises, it overstates the UK's power, and is a deliberate attempt to mislead uninformed, overly patriotic people. The ridiculous idea that the UK can somehow turn the commonwealth into a rival trading block is equally deluded. It's simply not a trading block, and even if it was, the arrogance of the UK expecting that after 40 odd years, it's just going to waltz back in, take the wheel and "lead" India, Nigeria, Australia etc. towards its dream (they'll all just follow, natch, not having any vote or control in things, because it's our commonwealth, not theirs) is just fodder for small minded nationalists. The people pushing this nonsense don't believe it any more than they believed the 350m for the NHS promise.

What they really want is to take the UK away from the progressive European model (welfare state, universal healthcare, high standards, higher taxes) and go full tilt to the US model.

Look at Fox, Farage, etc. they're all on the record in the past advocating abolishing the NHS and basically following the US model.

And that's really the plan.

But it won't stick. The damage to the UK economy will simply be too great.

The thing that amazes me is that Tories who hold up Thatcher as their idol are bent on leaving the single market and customs union, features of the EU that Thatcher spent much of her premiership building and using membership of to encourage Japanese and other investors to come to the UK. Brexitters often say that the UK joined a common market, it didn't intend it to become a "superstate". And yet, when given the choice to leave the EU and remain in the economic 'common market' (single market and customs union) they flat out refuse that too.

The problem for the UK is the damage is already done. For any outside investor coming to Europe, the top factor in selecting a country now is going to be "are these guys likely to leave the EU". And whatever happens in the UK, nobody overseas will trust the UK population for a generation.

Whatever happens, the UK needs to prepare for being poorer and less powerful.

Edo

Now this.

Johnnyboy11

My issue has always been that I don't need three layers of Government: Scottish, UK and EU, and all the attendant cost and bureaucracy. Best to get rid of two, then accountability is assured. My own preference would be to become the 53rd state of the USA and throw the other three under a bus. 66% effective taxation rate in the UK just now, equivalent to that in the former USSR.

My own suspicion is that the EU needs the UK to help underwrite the EUR 1 trillion Target2 Eurozone debt owned mainly by Spain and Italy to Germany. This will end badly for Germany, and likely the UK taxpayer.

fezzer

Surely that can't be close to being the case? Quick google search came up with this: https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...e-australia-us
Gross salary of £40k has an effective tax rate of 24.8%; £100k is 34.3%.

Johnnyboy11

And the rest...
Employer NI Contributions at 13.8%
VAT at 20%
Fuel duty 58p per litre
Council Tax £££'s
Inurance Tax 12%
Air Passanger Duty
And the rest...

So you work Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday to pay the State, Thursday to pay for your commute, and Friday to feed yourself. The Guardian, ffs!

BritInParis

The whole Brexit negotiation debacle can be distilled into a simple equation. 52% of the electorate voted to Leave while 75% of MPs voted to Remain. The people gave Parliament an instruction which it did not wish to carry out. It was always going to end in a constitutional crisis.

Lion in Winter

And to add to the trouble, not all leavers meant the same thing by "leave" but because none of the terms or conditions or methods were specified at all there wasn't even any unity in the leave vote.

And on top of that, the main political parties have used this entire process as a tool in their own internal power struggles to the great detriment of the country.

It's not possible to roll the clock back 50 years. We can't get there from here and it isn't advisable to even try because the world is such a diffeent place.

At a guess though, we are going to get a softish brexit, with or without a short article 50 delay, after which none of the social and economic problems in the UK will be addressed any more than they were before and after 10 years when the fuss has died down and the barriers erected by brexit are seen to be just nuisances, it will all quietly go back to where it was. Except that we will have already paid the price with the divisions exacerbated in our country.