Bahtatboy

Anyway, I'm off down the pub. Going to watch Britain advance further into Europe.

captainflack

I recall a few days before the vote posting regarding the mechanics of what actually happens now.

It seems I was absolutely spot on.

Today, Matthew Elliot, head of Vote Leave is saying there is no immediate need to trigger article 50. He wants informal talks with the EU and is sure they can sort something regarding freedom of movement, single market, contributions and 'passporting' rights for London financial institutions.

Meanwhile, the rest of Europe is demanding that Britain trigger article 50 immediately, as they want the UK exit to be as swift as possible. They're not interested in any new deal, they simply want to settle matters such as the status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU. It seems they weren't just posturing after all. They were serious. No deals.

Cameron has says he's going to let the new PM decide what to do (his threat to trigger article 50 immediately was just a threat, again, just as I predicted).

Europe is refusing to discuss anything with the UK, until it triggers article 50 and starts the process to leave. The UK government, and the 'outers', are refusing to trigger article 50, because they still want to get concessions and a deal.

So stalemate. The UK won't actually push the button to leave, because it does not want to have a full exit. It wants a divorce, but it also wants to live in the spare room and shag the mrs at the weekends. Meanwhile, the rest of the EU are not interested in doing deals with the UK, as they point out, the UK is already outside the Euro, outside Schengen and has other concessions; it's already only really just a member of the single market, so there are no more concessions to make.

Meanwhile the UK economy is now going to nosedive rather quickly. The biggest falls on the FTSE were housebuilders and banks - 30-40% falls in some cases. This is because they're exposed to the UK domestic market much more than multinationals. But if housebuilders and dometic banks being hit is not indicative of a house price crash, nothing is. Moody's has cut the UK's credit from stable to negative, S&P, the only ratings agency that had the UK at triple A is going to review that and suggested it is 'untenable'. That's going to push up UK mortgage rates regardless of what the BoE does.

And to add insult to injury, Farage has already said the promise on the battlebus of 350m for the NHS was a 'mistake' (though he never thought the need to point that out before the vote of course).

I wouldn't be at all surprised if article 50 hasn't been triggered by xmas, it never will be.

But to those who want out, a genuine question - no insults - how do you see things progressing now? If the EU genuinely will not talk to the UK about some kind of new deal, but demands that it trigger article 50 and then they will discuss the UK's exit, what will happen? Will the government actually trigger this? Is being outside the EU with no deal, better than being in?

Parliament is sovereign, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that if public opinion shifts over the next few months (if for example it became clear that many of the economists warnings came true, and the 350m on the NHS was a lie), Parliament (with a huge remain majority) could decide to simply cancel the referendum and ignore it. I think the difficulty will be however trying to convince the rest of the EU they still want us as a member. My feeling is that they now would prefer Britain out because it's never going to be a good member that constructively contributes. Perhaps some kind of associate membership, where it basically has all the obligations like Norway but is not actually a member might be a face saving way out for everyone?

It's hard to say really what will happen, what I can absolutely say will not happen is that the UK will get a deal that allows it to keep financial passporting rights for London, single market access for UK companies, but without the obligation to accept freedom of movement. And I very much doubt the EU will discuss anything until the UK triggers article 50.

Millhouse

The EU will be in a tailspin now... concede to some UK concessions / special affiliate status (already being discussed) - at the risk of ripping the union to bits...

...or play hardball and no change... and watch others fall and rip the union to bits

Either way, the EU of the future will look nothing like the EU of 22 June.

My view was the EU was going to fail regardless of Brexit - but I do believe this has accelerated it.

Pulaski

I agree, I have been predicting that it would all end in tears since the late '90's, when the euro was turned into a physical currency. Undoubtedly the UK leaving will accelerate things, and likely reverse things further than if the EU bigwigs hadn't pushed so far, so fast. They tried to turn a 200 year project into a 20 year project, as far as I can tell, mostly to secure their names in the history books. Now their names will be in the history books for rather different reasons!

iggle

Wasn't his bus.

NF had his own separate unofficial leave campaign (purple bus) that was a red bus for Boris and Grove.

I predict UK won't leave EU.

Pulaski

You also predicted that the vote wouldn't be for leaving.

iggle

I know, so did Nigel, Boris, Davey, banks, and the rest of the world.

I read a fantastic comment in the guardian which basically said

DC by not pulling article 50 straight away and resigning, has stopped UK leaving

Boris or Grove won't pull it as they premiership will be doomed, there is no one in the Leave camp strong enough to lead this forward. No one wants on their own name the potential disaster that could be Scotland leaving the union.

Basically no one has the balls to pull this off.

paulry

Do you think we can persuade him to say that I won't be a millionaire by years end?

iggle

Daily Mail i know, but ouch

Nicola Sturgeon announces she wants 'immediate discussions' to STAY in EU | Daily Mail Online

paulry

Well she can go and jump

scrubbedexpat141

Seeing a bit of this in the news at the moment. One knobjockey on the Leave side said he didn't know who was better so voted leave because 'he never thought they'd win'.

Lightandbitter

We are starting to look like a bit of a laughing stock to the rest of the world on a parliamentary level.

There isn't a politician from any side that looks remotely capable of leading us through this.

Someone needs to step up on Monday before this all falls apart.

Millhouse

People who were neutral or unsure should never be allowed to vote.

I predict a massive concession being granted by the EU to the UK... we will leave in name only and will be granted an exceptional special affiliate status. I imagine free trade, restricted people and potentially an observer seat (if not a voting seat) in all the various bodies. In return we will be free to accept some of the directives, regulations etc. but we need to keep up our net contribution.

The other member states will vote overwhelmingly for this as they are all too scared of the consequences of a large member leaving and the potential knock-on-effect.

scrubbedexpat141

I heartily agree that I think we'll end up in a very favourable place. But the EU are ****ed either way.

Hold firm and let us bugger off. EU in trouble potentially.
Give us preferential treatment. Other members want the same. EU in trouble potentially.

iggle

So...who's next to go

Nexit?
Frexit?
Grexit?
Finexit?
Irexit?
Spexit?

Or is it

Turentry