View Poll Results: Should Britiain Leave EU
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll
The Brexit; Are you in or out?
Feb 15th 2016, 11:33 am
#16
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
Poll results so far:
8 YES
4 Hell YES
2 Semi-Yes
5 NO
Total yes: 14. Total no: 5.
Should send this memo to the DT.
8 YES
4 Hell YES
2 Semi-Yes
5 NO
Total yes: 14. Total no: 5.
Should send this memo to the DT.
Feb 15th 2016, 11:54 am
#17
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jun 2007
Location: Dubai
Posts: 13,547
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
I left Dubai a few years ago and moved to Portugal. Being an EU citizen, it's really very simple to just move over and register, no painful visa renewals like in the UAE. Much prefer the life here too and feel much safer.
But even if the UK votes out, it will still end up with some deal that guarantees freedom of movement, so I think in practice it won't affect your chances of doing that. Depending on timescales, might be worth stocking up on EUR if you have GBP holdings, as the GBP is getting caned against the EUR for past 2-3 months, so the markets seem to have decided who stands to lose most over brexit.
But even if the UK votes out, it will still end up with some deal that guarantees freedom of movement, so I think in practice it won't affect your chances of doing that. Depending on timescales, might be worth stocking up on EUR if you have GBP holdings, as the GBP is getting caned against the EUR for past 2-3 months, so the markets seem to have decided who stands to lose most over brexit.
She gets automatic right of residence in any other EU country I move to.
have previously lived in France, Belgium and Germany and would move back to any of those rather than the UK.
Feb 15th 2016, 3:15 pm
#20
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: The Magic Kingdom
Posts: 308
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
Get out of Europe and scrap Constitutional Monarchy, bring back the Gold Standard. Have an Absolute Monarchy with an advisory council (elected members of the public with 5 year terms with no party affiliation) with decision making by the Queen or King.
Britain can do away with MPs' and Lords. Nationalise the utilities and transport industry. New times call for new ways of governing.
Britain can do away with MPs' and Lords. Nationalise the utilities and transport industry. New times call for new ways of governing.
Last edited by Desert Shaikh; Feb 15th 2016 at 3:17 pm.
Feb 15th 2016, 3:25 pm
#21
Concierge
Joined: May 2006
Location: ex ex-pat, in Taunton
Posts: 27,203
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
Get out of Europe and scrap Constitutional Monarchy, bring back the Gold Standard. Have an Absolute Monarchy with an advisory council (elected members of the public with 5 year terms with no party affiliation) with decision making by the Queen or King.
Britain can do away with MPs' and Lords. Nationalise the utilities and transport industry. New times call for new ways of governing.
Britain can do away with MPs' and Lords. Nationalise the utilities and transport industry. New times call for new ways of governing.
Feb 15th 2016, 3:26 pm
#22
Gold-Helmeted Member
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Setubal-ish
Posts: 688
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
my issue is more that my wife has a non-EU passport. As things stand its a lot easier for us to move to another EU country than it would be to move to the UK. We'd still have to jump through lots of hoops despite the fact we've been married 8 years.
She gets automatic right of residence in any other EU country I move to.
have previously lived in France, Belgium and Germany and would move back to any of those rather than the UK.
She gets automatic right of residence in any other EU country I move to.
have previously lived in France, Belgium and Germany and would move back to any of those rather than the UK.
Feb 15th 2016, 3:31 pm
#23
Gold-Helmeted Member
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Setubal-ish
Posts: 688
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
Get out of Europe and scrap Constitutional Monarchy, bring back the Gold Standard. Have an Absolute Monarchy with an advisory council (elected members of the public with 5 year terms with no party affiliation) with decision making by the Queen or King.
Britain can do away with MPs' and Lords. Nationalise the utilities and transport industry. New times call for new ways of governing.
Britain can do away with MPs' and Lords. Nationalise the utilities and transport industry. New times call for new ways of governing.
'Won't compromise democracy for economic benefit' says British guy on a large tax-free salary in a middle east dictatorship.
Feb 15th 2016, 4:13 pm
#24
EU hoo
Joined: Jan 2014
Location: émigré of nowhere
Posts: 1,954
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
Fuelled largely by the Blair government's folly in '05 when opening the doors to the eastern bloc countries, rather than impose transition controls i.e immigration limits, as Germany and the majority of other members had done. Apart from the UK, only Sweden and Ireland fully opened the door.
The UK Labour government (or civil servants) predicted a net inflow of 5,000 - 13,000 migrants per year from the eastern bloc, the rest as they say, is history.
Feb 15th 2016, 5:03 pm
#25
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
With all due respect, your response is based on the premise that we're not going to be able to negotiate our own trade treaties with other nations or with the EU post independence. Can you explain to me why this would not be the case? Would the US or Canada turn their backs on us and refuse trade treaties? We're a wealthy and highly sophisticated country with an educated workforce and high demand for consumer goods. And you've ignored points that the EU has grown relatively less economically influential over the years and is less important to the UK compared to just a decade ago. In this global marketplace while we may currently be importing far more from the EU we're not locked into importing from the EU. If Germany introduces tariffs and the cost of BMWs goes up? The market will shift to Japanese or American cars. Or perhaps we'll see a revival in the growth of home industries. While we may "only" be 11% of EU trade that still represents a hugely valuable activity. Tell any EU manufacturer they can no longer sell to the UK at current price levels and see what their reaction would be.
I don't claim to be an economist (but I suspect neither are you, and perhaps we're equally just as qualified to make future predictions, along with all the economists who predicted the global crashes of 2008-09). And I suppose Millhouse is correct. The costs of EU are easy to quantify, the benefits are not. Like many people who want to leave, I do support aspects of the open market and free trade. But I do not want to sacrifice all at the holy altar of the free market. And I suspect there's much more to the real cost of the EU that the pundits and policy wonks have refused to consider - for example, the population growth including net inflow of migrants from the EU over the last decade has added substantial numbers to the UK population and neatly correlates with sky rocking housing prices in Britain. What is the cost of that to young potential first time home buyers? This is just one example.
There's a lot of soft factors that are admittedly harder to quantify but ultimately it comes down to the instinct that large swathes of the UK population are not benefiting from the open border policy and the primary benefactors are the already-rich bankers in London and poncy middle class people who want visa free access to their Italian holidays (and I say this as a member of the poncy middle class).
And I don't see anything wrong with wanting to take a nationalist approach to the subject matter. Just because the Germans *****ed up nationalism in the 1940s doesn't mean that Britain, a proud nation with a proud history, should shy away from it and regaining sovereignty on its own terms.
I don't claim to be an economist (but I suspect neither are you, and perhaps we're equally just as qualified to make future predictions, along with all the economists who predicted the global crashes of 2008-09). And I suppose Millhouse is correct. The costs of EU are easy to quantify, the benefits are not. Like many people who want to leave, I do support aspects of the open market and free trade. But I do not want to sacrifice all at the holy altar of the free market. And I suspect there's much more to the real cost of the EU that the pundits and policy wonks have refused to consider - for example, the population growth including net inflow of migrants from the EU over the last decade has added substantial numbers to the UK population and neatly correlates with sky rocking housing prices in Britain. What is the cost of that to young potential first time home buyers? This is just one example.
There's a lot of soft factors that are admittedly harder to quantify but ultimately it comes down to the instinct that large swathes of the UK population are not benefiting from the open border policy and the primary benefactors are the already-rich bankers in London and poncy middle class people who want visa free access to their Italian holidays (and I say this as a member of the poncy middle class).
And I don't see anything wrong with wanting to take a nationalist approach to the subject matter. Just because the Germans *****ed up nationalism in the 1940s doesn't mean that Britain, a proud nation with a proud history, should shy away from it and regaining sovereignty on its own terms.
I see this argument a lot, and for anyone with a basic understanding of economics it makes you cringe.
A trade is a mutually beneficial arrangement. Both sides benefit, the buyer and the seller. A trade occurs only if it is beneficial to both sides - the money is worth more to the seller than the goods, the goods are worth more to the buyer than the money. If it were not so, the trade wouldn't happen. It needs both sides to accept it. Both sides benefit, not just the seller. This is a fundamental of economics/trade and it shows the calibre of the arguments when this is trotted out so often.
UK businesses and consumers have a choice of suppliers from a huge single market, which benefits them, as well as the sellers. If you put up barriers to that trade, both sides lose - the buyer and the seller. British consumers will still buy German cars, but they'll pay more through customs and importation costs, etc. The price will go up. Companies that rely on things like German machine tools, will still buy them because there is no alternative, but they'll cost more, other companies might switch to domestic suppliers which are more expensive or lower quality, this will then affect their own pricing and quality, and so on. Of course the Germans will also have reduced sales and extra costs. Neither side benefits. Trade barriers are bad for everyone.
It really isn't. The UK is 11% of the EU's trade, the EU is 40% of the UK's trade. And most of what trade the UK does outside of the EU is conducted on the basis of trade agreements big nations like China and the US have with the EU. Britain would have to strike new deals with such countries if it left the EU.
And consider your comments regarding how the EU needs Britain more because they export more to us (which is a simplistic view, but let's run with this). Are you aware that the USA, our biggest trading partner outside the EU, is one of the few countries that Britain exports more to than we import? On the logic brexitters use, that means that in any trade deal, Britain needs the US more than it needs Britain, which means that the US holds all the aces in that negotiation, doesn't it? But amazingly, these people still believe that Britain is going to get a better deal from the yanks by leaving the EU. You cannot have it both ways.
This I think is really the fundamental issue. It's about nationalism. It's not really about good or bad laws, because most brexitters would struggle to think of any bad laws the EU has passed, but most could think of plenty of bad laws the UK parliament has passed. It's about a belief that somehow Britain is still great, that somehow we can still be a global player like we used to be 100 years ago. And for many, they'd rather accept bad laws passed by British people, than have good laws passed by foreigners.
I could take the brexitters arguments a bit more seriously if they were more realistic, for example by acknowledging that trade and the economy will take a hit, which is undoubtedly the case. The problem is their arguments seem to amount to 'free beer', that there are only benefits and no drawbacks. But when they don't fundamentally understand the difference between a single market and a free trade deal, then it's really hard to believe they really have any clue what they're talking about.
It's all largely irrelevant anyway, because in the event of an 'out' vote, the UK will have little choice but to negotiate to maintain single market membership, and freedom of movement of people is a requirement of that. The result will be Norway style membership, which will see Britain have the costs and have to continue to accept EU rules, but without any UK seats in the European parliament, any EU commissioner, or any place for the UK government round the table.
A trade is a mutually beneficial arrangement. Both sides benefit, the buyer and the seller. A trade occurs only if it is beneficial to both sides - the money is worth more to the seller than the goods, the goods are worth more to the buyer than the money. If it were not so, the trade wouldn't happen. It needs both sides to accept it. Both sides benefit, not just the seller. This is a fundamental of economics/trade and it shows the calibre of the arguments when this is trotted out so often.
UK businesses and consumers have a choice of suppliers from a huge single market, which benefits them, as well as the sellers. If you put up barriers to that trade, both sides lose - the buyer and the seller. British consumers will still buy German cars, but they'll pay more through customs and importation costs, etc. The price will go up. Companies that rely on things like German machine tools, will still buy them because there is no alternative, but they'll cost more, other companies might switch to domestic suppliers which are more expensive or lower quality, this will then affect their own pricing and quality, and so on. Of course the Germans will also have reduced sales and extra costs. Neither side benefits. Trade barriers are bad for everyone.
It really isn't. The UK is 11% of the EU's trade, the EU is 40% of the UK's trade. And most of what trade the UK does outside of the EU is conducted on the basis of trade agreements big nations like China and the US have with the EU. Britain would have to strike new deals with such countries if it left the EU.
And consider your comments regarding how the EU needs Britain more because they export more to us (which is a simplistic view, but let's run with this). Are you aware that the USA, our biggest trading partner outside the EU, is one of the few countries that Britain exports more to than we import? On the logic brexitters use, that means that in any trade deal, Britain needs the US more than it needs Britain, which means that the US holds all the aces in that negotiation, doesn't it? But amazingly, these people still believe that Britain is going to get a better deal from the yanks by leaving the EU. You cannot have it both ways.
This I think is really the fundamental issue. It's about nationalism. It's not really about good or bad laws, because most brexitters would struggle to think of any bad laws the EU has passed, but most could think of plenty of bad laws the UK parliament has passed. It's about a belief that somehow Britain is still great, that somehow we can still be a global player like we used to be 100 years ago. And for many, they'd rather accept bad laws passed by British people, than have good laws passed by foreigners.
I could take the brexitters arguments a bit more seriously if they were more realistic, for example by acknowledging that trade and the economy will take a hit, which is undoubtedly the case. The problem is their arguments seem to amount to 'free beer', that there are only benefits and no drawbacks. But when they don't fundamentally understand the difference between a single market and a free trade deal, then it's really hard to believe they really have any clue what they're talking about.
It's all largely irrelevant anyway, because in the event of an 'out' vote, the UK will have little choice but to negotiate to maintain single market membership, and freedom of movement of people is a requirement of that. The result will be Norway style membership, which will see Britain have the costs and have to continue to accept EU rules, but without any UK seats in the European parliament, any EU commissioner, or any place for the UK government round the table.
Feb 16th 2016, 9:00 am
#26
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2015
Location: Abu Dhabi via Barcelona
Posts: 1,478
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
We should just leave, those fuzzy-wuzzys don't like it up 'em.
Feb 16th 2016, 9:34 am
#27
Hit 16's
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
One of the biggest factors which will influence the electorate is immigration. If the Outers campaign strongly that leaving will stop the influx or potential influx of "undesirable foreigners", they'll win hands-down, especially if the Daily Mail gets behind it.
The greatest loss will be Farage's antics in the EU Parliament.
The greatest loss will be Farage's antics in the EU Parliament.
Feb 16th 2016, 9:46 am
#28
Concierge
Joined: May 2006
Location: ex ex-pat, in Taunton
Posts: 27,203
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
One of the biggest factors which will influence the electorate is immigration. If the Outers campaign strongly that leaving will stop the influx or potential influx of "undesirable foreigners", they'll win hands-down, especially if the Daily Mail gets behind it.
The greatest loss will be Farage's antics in the EU Parliament.
The greatest loss will be Farage's antics in the EU Parliament.
Feb 16th 2016, 10:00 am
#29
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2015
Location: Luton
Posts: 1,162
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
I resent in the influx of foreigners into UK. Call me racist, I don't think I am, I can have a practical and logical argument why it's a bad thing for the UK, and accept that in some degrees its a good thing. The influx is actually one of the main reasons why I chose to leave England and one of the main reasons I will never go back.
It's turned in to a cesspit.
It's turned in to a cesspit.
Feb 16th 2016, 10:04 am
#30
Concierge
Joined: May 2006
Location: ex ex-pat, in Taunton
Posts: 27,203
Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?
I resent in the influx of foreigners into UK. Call me racist, I don't think I am, I can have a practical and logical argument why it's a bad thing for the UK, and accept that in some degrees its a good thing. The influx is actually one of the main reasons why I chose to leave England and one of the main reasons I will never go back.
It's turned in to a cesspit.
It's turned in to a cesspit.
