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A bit more bad news on our city :(

A bit more bad news on our city :(

Old Jul 22nd 2018, 11:35 am
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Default A bit more bad news on our city :(

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Old Jul 22nd 2018, 12:23 pm
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

I'm trying to figure out the angle of the photograph.

That must be from the creek looking towards the base of Sheikh Zayed down at BurJuman? I think I see the Park Regis hotel where I got phenomenally drunk once and for the only time in my life blacked out. But I don't recognise that rather nice fancy looking waterfront promenade and shops like another version of Box Park?

Ok, back to topic. The maturation of Dubai was always going to introduce challenges. But I suspect it'll be fine. When a city gets its mojo going, it's hard for the competition to catch up. Regionally - what's there to compete with Dubai? Just like how KL isn't a serious competitor for Singapore. It will come down to Dubai's ability to be flexible.
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Old Jul 22nd 2018, 5:30 pm
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
I'm trying to figure out the angle of the photograph.

That must be from the creek looking towards the base of Sheikh Zayed down at BurJuman? I think I see the Park Regis hotel where I got phenomenally drunk once and for the only time in my life blacked out. But I don't recognise that rather nice fancy looking waterfront promenade and shops like another version of Box Park?

Ok, back to topic. The maturation of Dubai was always going to introduce challenges. But I suspect it'll be fine. When a city gets its mojo going, it's hard for the competition to catch up. Regionally - what's there to compete with Dubai? Just like how KL isn't a serious competitor for Singapore. It will come down to Dubai's ability to be flexible.
I agree there are no serious regional competitors, but its worrying that a lot of Dubai’s foot traffic was built on stopovers to Asia and Aus. There are some serious plays by Qantas, Sing and Cathay for direct flights from Europe which could erode some of that traffic which helped to bring the masses. A very large number of the “regular” tourists that we’ve now come to know over the years have now stopped coming. In general, their reasons are strength of the dollar vs GBP/EUR but also many of them say that Dubai’s a bit down market now and they’ve seen everything here.

I think I’m more worried about Dubai’s future now than I was in 2008/9.
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Old Jul 22nd 2018, 5:50 pm
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

I sense a slowing. The market for property in last 2-3 years has been in the low end , danube tyoe 300k studios. Tailored for the low end market. Think i read that rental fees from agents are down about a third from last year too, so things are slowing..

i have also had numerous emails and calls from at least 2 developers offering 20% down and then multiple payments after moving in. One was emaar, cant remember other
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Old Jul 22nd 2018, 7:37 pm
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
I'm trying to figure out the angle of the photograph.

That must be from the creek looking towards the base of Sheikh Zayed down at BurJuman? I think I see the Park Regis hotel where I got phenomenally drunk once and for the only time in my life blacked out. But I don't recognise that rather nice fancy looking waterfront promenade and shops like another version of Box Park?
What that is, in fact, is a rather nice fancy looking waterfront promenade and shops like another version of Box Park.

It's another Meeras development called Al Seef (and they really do all look very alike, the Beach, Citywalk, La Mer, Boxpark as you mentioned etc). It's just across the road from the embassies near the creek. Just a bit further downstream and leading into what was Bastakiya but is now Al Fahidi, is a similar development but the style is faked up olde worlde, a la Souq Waqif, or indeed most of Bastakiya itself (which had to be mostly rebuilt right after being demolished, in a sanitised version of its former self). It seems they are creating a walkway also to link the entire waterfront all the way down to Shindagha bypassing the Emiri diwan, which had become rather inconveniently located. It's a nice idea but still not sure how they will manage the parking and the nightmare road network/traffic flow around there.

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Ok, back to topic. The maturation of Dubai was always going to introduce challenges. But I suspect it'll be fine. When a city gets its mojo going, it's hard for the competition to catch up. Regionally - what's there to compete with Dubai? Just like how KL isn't a serious competitor for Singapore. It will come down to Dubai's ability to be flexible.
I'd agree with this - I interpret current conditions as a wobble, or maybe even a necessary correction to rental costs. Though I think retail and restaurant trade do still have a rocky few years ahead while demand catches up with supply and prices and costs also correct themselves. Apropos Shed's comments below: while much of the old tourist source markets are drying up, there are plenty more to be tapped. Dubai remains a massive aspirational destination for much of Asia and Africa, and still for large chunks of Europe.
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Old Jul 22nd 2018, 8:01 pm
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope View Post
What that is, in fact, is a rather nice fancy looking waterfront promenade and shops like another version of Box Park.

It's another Meeras development called Al Seef (and they really do all look very alike, the Beach, Citywalk, La Mer, Boxpark as you mentioned etc). It's just across the road from the embassies near the creek. Just a bit further downstream and leading into what was Bastakiya but is now Al Fahidi, is a similar development but the style is faked up olde worlde, a la Souq Waqif, or indeed most of Bastakiya itself (which had to be mostly rebuilt right after being demolished, in a sanitised version of its former self). It seems they are creating a walkway also to link the entire waterfront all the way down to Shindagha bypassing the Emiri diwan, which had become rather inconveniently located. It's a nice idea but still not sure how they will manage the parking and the nightmare road network/traffic flow around there.



I’d agree with this - I interpret current conditions as a wobble, or maybe even a necessary correction to rental costs. Though I think retail and restaurant trade do still have a rocky few years ahead while demand catches up with supply and prices and costs also correct themselves. Apropos Shed's comments below: while much of the old tourist source markets are drying up, there are plenty more to be tapped. Dubai remains a massive aspirational destination for much of Asia and Africa, and still for large chunks of Europe.
See, I disagree with that statement above. Dubai has been built as an upmarket (read, high prices for fancy crap) which the low lying guests wont use. It was always designed on standards that suppress anything available elsewhere from a service viewpoint - easy to do when labor and finance are cheap and everything’s brand spanking new. It’s going to take either a wholesale race to the bottom (I think its going on now) or a significant upscaling to get the new upper middle class Asian here. Even if they do come, the prices are just too high compared to Mumbai, Bangkok or HK top class joints so why would they? I associate with a lot of hoteliers, hospitality people and retailers and they tell me that the people who are here now have money but look and just don’t buy.

Just MHO but its coming from a lot of different sources.
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 5:22 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by TheShed View Post


See, I disagree with that statement above. Dubai has been built as an upmarket (read, high prices for fancy crap) which the low lying guests wont use. It was always designed on standards that suppress anything available elsewhere from a service viewpoint - easy to do when labor and finance are cheap and everything’s brand spanking new. It’s going to take either a wholesale race to the bottom (I think its going on now) or a significant upscaling to get the new upper middle class Asian here. Even if they do come, the prices are just too high compared to Mumbai, Bangkok or HK top class joints so why would they? I associate with a lot of hoteliers, hospitality people and retailers and they tell me that the people who are here now have money but look and just don’t buy.

Just MHO but its coming from a lot of different sources.
In fairness, I have heard that same thing, that the people coming now (especially the Chinese) don't spend nearly as much, especially on food & beverage, as the more "traditional" clientele. But I think also to be a longer-term mass tourism destination (viz. their objective of 20m visitors a year), Dubai has to shift it's mix of facilities and offerings better towards the mid market so that is an adjustment that is probably coming anyway. I honestly struggle to see the attraction of being marooned out in the luxury ghetto of one of a series of essentially identical palm frond resorts that could be almost anywhere (albeit anywhere else that might have a more pleasant climate and much better beaches).
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 5:41 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Dubai was once affordable luxury - with decent tax free shopping. Sadly, a greedy supply chain took hold and its now one of the most expensive places around - made worse right now by the USD. IT's a great holiday destination with tons to do, but it comes at a heavy cost.

I've recently been looking at a few places with the possible idea of buying, but even with the recent falls in prices - it still just doesn't make sense. There is so much supply, rents are still falling and yields are just no where near where they need to be - especially in a raising interest rate environment. The economy will recover, but what that recovery looks like (and when) is any anyone's guess. It's certainly not going to be more of the same.

Last edited by Millhouse; Jul 23rd 2018 at 6:05 am.
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 6:23 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by TheShed View Post
I think I’m more worried about Dubai’s future now than I was in 2008/9.
Interesting - certainly without a good recovery in KSA, there is no DXB recovery and KSA's fate is all about politics and internal reforms. This is why it's uncertain.

I'm surprised at the lack of uptick despite oil prices being at more than break-even levels.
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 8:00 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

During the last recovery following the 08-09 crash, in addition to rising oil prices there was a flood of US money in the region - Iraq and Afghanistan reconstruction wealth being laundered through Dubai real estate. I'm sure that had an impact.

It may be that this slowdown will be a test for Dubai. Does the city have what it takes to adapt and push forward to become the next Singapore? Weaning itself off of high value tourism (apparently increasingly becoming flat) when the development model of the past five years was specifically targeted at that group will be difficult. But then again the logistics and shipping side of things have exploded in the past five years, Jebel Ali is much bigger now than it was in the past.

Everyone on here is right to a degree. MissAnne is right about Meraas and the dangers of overexposure through identikit developments and shopping venues all over the city (all with the exact same shops and restaurants), and likewise, all the same-same Emaar and Damas developments flooding the markets. Shed and Millhouse are right about tourism getting too expensive to sustain. Millhouse is right about Saudi struggles affecting Dubai. Flood is right about property demand that exist is mainly lower end. Collectively it points to a major slowdown and recession. I'd hazard a guess and say things will be kept aloft for Expo2020 then we see a crash of some type. Question is - for how long? And what will (or can) Dubai change to get back on track?

What do you think Dubai needs to do? If you were the highly paid consultant from McKinsey or whatever commissioned by DM to prepare a 10 year plan for the future?
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 8:01 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

I'm keeping myself very busy outside of the UAE market across Asia. As long as they're happy for me to sit in Dubai and work that half of the world and some MENA, I'll keep plodding.
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 8:23 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

There’s a few reports from decent houses suggesting that it will be soft upto and post 2020.
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 9:53 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
There’s a few reports from decent houses suggesting that it will be soft upto and post 2020.
Ah. Now we know how bad things really are.
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 10:25 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
There’s a few reports from decent houses suggesting that it will be soft upto and post 2020.
What's driving the recovery in 2020?
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Old Jul 23rd 2018, 10:30 am
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Default Re: A bit more bad news on our city :(

Originally Posted by weasel decentral View Post
What's driving the recovery in 2020?
Brexit.
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