Millhouse

BBC - Capital - Is the UAE still a high-paid expat haven?

more gloom... but not as bad as this guy:

https://voiceofthemarkets.blogspot.c...ddle-east.html

DXBtoDOH

I liked the 45 year old Brit expat who's had six jobs in 10 years and is currently on what he made 10 years ago.... I suspect this is actually very common in the GCC, no? But surely the streets in Dubai weren't paved with gold 10 years ago either. I remember similar complaints from when I first came into the country.

On a similar theme I know in my office we were paying senior western engineers 50-70k five years ago and most of them are now gone and for a upcoming project we're staffing it with people on 30ish.

As for the blog, what's the meaning behind this: We are also expecting lot of turmoil between USA and Saudi/UAE Jan 2019 onwards.

Millhouse

6 jobs in 10 years is a disaster - says a lot about him, I guess.

I came on1st feb 2008 and certainly it was gold rush time. By 2009 it was dead. The real money was made in 2004-2008. Since then it's been pretty stagnant apart from a few key areas.

"We are also expecting lot of turmoil between USA and Saudi/UAE Jan 2019 onwards" - war, policy, interest rates, oil... name your poison.

DXBtoDOH

What is your prediction for 2019, Millhouse?

And I'm asking quite sincerely.

UKCityGent

Just read his blog and he is all doom and gloom about GCC - he thinks oil will be low $30 in the next few months (not that i can personally see it fall that low again!)

Arnold S

It also says a lot about the lack of security in the labour laws and recriminations against employers who lack morals.

DXBtoDOH

Eh.

Labour laws mean diddly squat when there ain't no money in the company kitty.

The cyclical nature of work means that quite a few people only last as long as a contract is active. The cost of employment is usually very high and makes it difficult to justify keeping staff on overhead till the next project. A lot of firms in all sectors operate on boom/bust cycles.

Then of course we have what passes for local talent in the Gulf. Lots of ambitious people hungry for promotion and start their first day of employment with an eye on the next job for that extra few thousands a month. I know a few who shimmied up the pole pretty quickly by hopping around a lot.

Millhouse

I predict that there will be another millhouse in this world. The rest, I don't care about at the moment.

But... if you look at the predicted supply of housing in Dubai in the next 24 months. More units scheduled for delivery in the next 2 years than were delivered in the last 10. These units are >60% built and so likely to actually be delivered....wow, just wow

Oil - no idea, anyones guess but I struggle to be bullish on it.
Interest rates - peaking in the next 6 months - with cuts backs all around thereafter.

DXBtoDOH

Congratulations!

weasel decentral

Speculative building?

UAE is becoming India rather quickly; wages, benefits etc. are dropping to that kind of level except for at the top of the chain. You'd expect a wipe out of many high end stores, restaurants, luxury apartments etc. down to a sustainable percentage to match the new reality. Pound shops springing up on the high street

Arnold S

Dubai Mall yesterday evening illustrated this perfectly. The main thoroughfares busy with residents and groups of tourists. The ice rink, low to mid range restaurants and the food court all very busy. Fashion avenue, by contrast, was a total ghost town.

Millhouse

Spot on weasel. My thoughts exactly.

When I lived in business bay, I used to go to Pizza Express Live a fair bit. In only a couple of years the demographic changed from Europeans piling down the food and wine, to Indians studying menus, using wouchers and nursing their one glass of vine all night long. The same happened in my building (with a corresponding increase in rubbish left on the floor of the bin room) - I've done a fair bit of malling this weekend and the discounting is pretty insane - goes to show the top end stores are struggling to sell anything.

If you think about the deliveries of overbuilding, this is stuff all sold during the 2015/2016 mini-boom. (terrible charts below have the dates running the wrong way but they show the point)


(2018 is the last Q)


2011/2012 properties were likely sold in 2008.

scrubbedexpat141

We're considering moving home because of the demographic. Prices peaked and then have come back a bit and because they're huge apartments they appeal to those with large families or extended families.

The bin room. Sigh. It's a ****ing disgrace to open several doors, get all the way there, open the bin room door and then just dump it on the floor.


Anyway. The jobs market at the moment for Dubai is summarised with what I've been telling so many candidates and colleagues locally: all roads lead to Saudi.

scrubbedexpat141

And he spent 14 months out of work. So that's 8yrs 10 months for 6 jobs. That's an average of 1yr 5months in each job. Not even 18 months.

That's more jobs than I've had hot dinners.

Millhouse

I once collected all of the rubbish and returned it to the owner. I also confirmed with them that I would continue to place it outside their door until they behaved. Took two goes to fix the problem.