31 October 2019

Old Aug 7th 2019, 12:22 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Millhouse


A no deal also means a hard border and Ireland thrown under the bus.
Ironic, ain't it?

I've never understood why Varadkhar wasn't more conciliatory and embracing of seeking alternatives for the border. A few minor border crossing posts to check large-scale commercial activities and in exchange we'd do a few of ours for the sea crossing. Looks like it'll blow up in his face.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 3:52 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
Ironic, ain't it?

I've never understood why Varadkhar wasn't more conciliatory and embracing of seeking alternatives for the border. A few minor border crossing posts to check large-scale commercial activities and in exchange we'd do a few of ours for the sea crossing. Looks like it'll blow up in his face.
He’s a puppet being worked from behind by the EU.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 11:07 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Pongo


He’s a puppet being worked from behind by the EU.
Ah, the undimned arrogance of English nationalism only appears to grow more insular and fact-averse from feeding exclusively in its own trough. This latest attempt to demonise Varadkar in the tory press and by the brexit talibanis would be risible if it weren't so sadly inevitable.

It is now politically impossible for Varadkar - who leads a minority government - to be in any way conciliatory in the face of all the nonsensical bombast coming from the feral tories. The truth is that the extreme refusal to countenance any mechanism that supports the basic tenets of the GFA, which is the current position of the Johnson government, leaves no room for Varadkar or any other Irish leader to make any concessions, even if they wanted to. And anyway, the UK government has offered no path forward, is clearly clueless or willfully ignorant about basic facts and is operating in utter bad faith. If the UK government did want to genuinely find a route forward, it is up to them to propose an alternative to the agreement they have already made.

The Johnson government position, if followed through, will clearly be in abrogation of the GFA which requires the demonstrated consent of the communities on both sides of the border to any change in the status of the border. The US is also a signatory to the GFA and it is very clear, regardless of Trump's bloviating, that congress will not approve any trade deal with the UK under those circumstances (which may be a blessing anyway).

Aside from showing solidarity with a member state (exactly the kind of honourable and principled behaviour the tory press can't parse because it shows up their lies about the "treacherous EU"), the EU is also concerned as a signatory of the GFA and ensuring that its external border is protected. The EU and Irish positions are indivisible, a point I have made before in these forums when the arrogant Brexit-English assumption was that the EU would jettison Ireland.

But all these facts are ignored and twisted so that a no-deal Brexit, which NOBODY VOTED FOR, is driven home. And just wait and see how that works out. As Scamp says, I almost want this to happen so people see what it will mean. Removing a substantial amount of UK freight capacity, which will be parked at the ports, in the run-up to xmas will bring plenty of seasonal joy.

Brexit has been such a mess so far not because of reluctant civil servants or half-hearted ministers; it has been a mess because it is based on lies and myth. Brexit of any kind, much less without a deal, will inevitably be very difficult and destructive to achieve without offering a single obvious benefit in return. That money going to the EU paid for pooled capability across a range of activities that will be more costly for the UK (or, as looks increasingly likely, England) to replicate alone, and much less effectively.

And, as ever, following the decimation of UK manufacturing, trade what with whom, Mr Raab?

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Old Aug 8th 2019, 5:56 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope
Ah, the undimned arrogance of English nationalism only appears to grow more insular and fact-averse from feeding exclusively in its own trough. This latest attempt to demonise Varadkar in the tory press and by the brexit talibanis would be risible if it weren't so sadly
I’m not English, however Ireland has done very well from being in the EU.
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Old Aug 8th 2019, 6:44 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
Mildly curious. Do remainers genuinely believe that Brexiteers want to resurrect the British Empire (the same Empire that bled Britain dry)?
It was a reference to " an aggressive Foreign Policy " .
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Old Aug 9th 2019, 8:09 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Pongo


I’m not English, however Ireland has done very well from being in the EU.
Correction, Ireland has done very well WHILE being in the EU. Ireland received per capita less regional structural funding than most parts of England even during the peak years of being a recipient in the 1980s and early 90s. But it used most of the funds it received for sensible infrastructure development. Ireland has mostly constructively engaged with EU membership and built an open export-driven economy making effective use of EU trade leverage and going from having a per capita income about 60% of EU average when joining to something like 120% now (depending on how you measure given that Ireland's GDP is a massive overstatement of the real economy given the level of high value exports). This is an opportunity available to all member states of course.

A principal element of this, interestingly, has been the low corporate tax rate. Note that this was forced upon Ireland by the ECJ who ruled that the preferential tax rate for foreign investments was illegal under EU law as it was discriminatory against local firms. In an uncharacteristically imaginative move, the Irish government responded by reducing all corporate tax to the same rate and unleashed an entrepreneurial boom in the 1990s.

In order to sustain the boom in the 2000s, the Irish government foolishly and wantonly doled out all sorts of incentives to the construction industry who were also the biggest funders of the governing political party. They were warned about this over-stimulus by the EU Commission but ignored that warning and hence the massive bust which left almost all the big banks insolvent. The "bail-out" of the Irish banks (to protect mostly English and German bond-holders) was funded by the Irish tax-payer - the bail-out was simply a loan at rates that the Irish government could not have independently sourced, having made the questionable decision to guarantee ALL the bank debt.

Nobody is more cynical about politicians than the Irish public who are much closer to their representatives than people are in the UK due to the scale of representation and the voting system. The EU has served as a valuable counter-balance to the national government which, inevitably, often puts political expediency before sensible policy. I note the same in other countries. This is a large part of why the Irish electorate is so overwhelmingly (and increasingly) positive about the EU.

So I bothered to expound all that stuff of no apparent interest to anybody while everyone is away for Eid anyway because I think it serves to show how the UK could also beneficially transform itself by positive engagement with the EU. But the "opinion leaders" in the UK are much too arrogant or afraid to acknowledge this. The UK is by far the structurally least democratic country in the EU: unelected head of state and upper house, antiquated FFP voting for parliament, unresolved West Lothian question, no constitution guaranteeing rights, massive over-centralisation of power in Westminster crippling local authorities etc etc. This is doubly ironic in the face of all the nonsense from the Brexiteers about democracy though their commitment to democracy seems to be based on the notion that there was only one vote ever in history that mattered. The examples of Ireland and others (e.g. the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Slovakia) show how being a positive EU member could enable a much needed improvement in the quality of governance in the UK as well as the obvious economic benefits. This idea may appear heretical to many people in the UK but that is because of how selective reporting and the presentation of information. It reminds me of the original debate about Obamacare in the US where Republican opponents were claiming with outrage that the US had the best healthcare system in the world and to change it was bordering on treasonous. The basic fact that the US spent more per capita on healthcare than any other western country for notably poorer outcomes was ignored. Similarly the clear and obvious deficiencies in British democracy (though the devolved Scottish and Welsh institutions are far better) seem never to be aired.
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Old Aug 9th 2019, 11:43 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

No Deal, WTO Brexit, plenty of side deals to cover stuff like aviation. No more payments to the EU, no more shared fisheries, Irish border managed with technology and a nod and a wink, tariffs on German cars and French food, then watch the EU 27 crack. Slash Corporation Tax and put a Singapore of the North on their doorstep. If they want a trade deal then let them come to us.
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Old Aug 9th 2019, 12:29 pm
  #23  
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

The Tory party worships markets, but the markets are telling them that the UK is f**ked if it heads to no deal, and they choose to ignore it.

On one side we have the international market consensus. And the CBI. And the TUC and the HM Treasury and OBR's own forecasts. And the IMF and Nobel prize winning economists, and the UK manufacturers association, the farmer's union, the leaders of virtually every bank and major company saying it will be chaos and in some cases destroy entire industries.

But on the other side we have 72 year old Brian the pub bore who has a Brexit party badge and a lifetime of experience "in the real world" who thinks it'll be fine because *we* fought a war against them and won (by *we* he means his parents' generation before he was born).

It's just so hard to decide who's right.

The EU has no reason to make a deal before brexit, other than what they already agreed.

It's either not going to be bad for them, in which case, why back down? Or it's going to be very bad, in which case, it's going to be far worse in the UK. The 39 billion settlement the UK is dangling and thinks is a useful negotiating chip, is worthless in the big picture. It's like 20% of Germany's annual budget surplus.

Greece tried to threaten the EU in the same way, threatening to severely damage the Eurozone by refusing the deal offered, and even having a referendum and arguing that this was somehow a mandate for the EU to up their offer. They got squat, and in the end accepted the EU's terms anyway.

The UK will accept the EU's terms. Either before brexit, or afterwards. It might actually be preferential for the EU to do it afterwards, not only will the pressure on the UK be even more and the consequences much more visible, the UK will be out and have lost its seat at the table, so the best it could hope for in future is to be in the customs union and single market yet have no say in how they're run.

This is the likely legacy.

After the last global financial crisis, the UK (and most other countries) simply have very little left in the tank to fight a recession. UK interest rates have been nailed to the floor for a decade, and they've been pumping in QE. The UK has a massive property bubble and private borrowing sustained on the expectation of ever-rising property prices. And a banking and services model that is 80% of the economy, and yet WTO rules only cover tangible goods. The UK services sector has access to the EU, and a host of other countries via EU trade deal deals that the UK has failed to replicate.

There really is no end result that sees the UK magically defy all the odds and somehow come out of it better off than it was in. Brexitters are essentially gambling their seat on the board of the most significant single economy in the world (the EU) against effective membership of the same block but with zero voting rights.
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Old Aug 9th 2019, 12:36 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

I am pretty sure all the people now saying no deal will be fine, are the same people who were absolutely convinced that the UK had a strong hand in negotiations and would bend the EU over and f**k them into giving the UK whatever the hell it demands.

Boris was completely wrong about that. Oh well. But now they're insisting that the UK is absolutely prepared to leave on Oct 31st. And he's definitely right about this, mkay?

Now let's all remember that. They won't ask for a delay, because the UK is absolutely ready for the 31st, and the UK has everything prepared to avoid chaos. The EU can do its worst!

Just want to get that all the record, because you know when it turns into a sh1t show, it's all going to be the fault of the EU for not giving the UK the deal it wanted, and not the fault of the brexitters refusing to endorse the deal the UK did agree with the EU, or insisting that it was well prepared to leave on no deal, when it quite evidently isn't.
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Old Aug 9th 2019, 12:51 pm
  #25  
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Millhouse
A no deal also means a hard border and Ireland thrown under the bus.
For a relatively short time. But that will destroy the NI economy even quicker than the Republic. NI voted 62% remain, and the business community (the normal backers of the DUP) are steadfastly against brexit. And the GFA, to which the US is a party, is a sticking point for any US trade deal.

The Tory member polls showed they'd happy push NI under a bus to get brexit, so I am sure they'd do the same to remove the irish border as an issue and try to grease the path to a US trade deal.

Whereas the DUP are basically Tories, and in a hung parliament are obvious bedfellows to prop up Tory majorities, Sinn Fein never take their seats in the UK parliament. So Labour and the opposition parties have little to lose in parliamentary arithmetic in kicking away Northern Ireland, because they're not losing a support base. Unlike the Tories.

Either way, the DUP are almost certainly destroying themselves by supporting brexit against the overwhelming wishes not just of Northern Ireland, but of most of their own constituent voters. It will make reunification possibly the most likely outcome because it will suit the Tories, Ireland, Sinn Fein and probably Trump (as well as the US congress), and the other UK parties lose little because what support the traditional left leaning republican vote in NI might have given is irrelevant because Sinn Fein hoovers it up and doesn't take their seats.

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Old Aug 9th 2019, 1:06 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

The fetish of the Market. Tomfoolery and quackery.

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Old Aug 9th 2019, 8:10 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

I'm coming around to the view that a hard no-deal Brexit is the best outcome. This is not because I subscribe to the whistling past the graveyard idiocy of the Brexiteers but because it is becoming daily more apparent what a catastrophe it really will be. UK economy is already shrinking. Sterling decline is going to kick in major inflation. Stick tariffs on top of that. UK business paralysed as 15, maybe even 20% of UK freight capacity is removed as it is stuck in queues at borders. All the costs for the social disorder as Kent becomes a car-park and shops run out of food, exacerbated by the perfect timing of 31 October at the end of the British harvest (sharp rise in imported food) and the run-up to xmas. Panic buying and shortages of everything, even locally produced as there will be few free trucks to get anything anywhere as much transport will be commandeered for medical supplies. Massive layoffs as manufacturing industry virtually stops overnight with the loss of favoured trading access (via EU deals) to most export markets, not just EU. A tariff of 15% won't much affect sales of German cars in the UK (as what is the alternative and anyway the profits are such that the manufacturers may well absorb much of the cost) but it will be a lethal body-blow to the sales of UK-manufactured Nissans in Europe.

The only solution will be a chastened UK doing a fast and sensible deal with the EU. And all completely unnecessary.
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Old Aug 10th 2019, 1:09 pm
  #28  
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope
I'm coming around to the view that a hard no-deal Brexit is the best outcome. This is not because I subscribe to the whistling past the graveyard idiocy of the Brexiteers but because it is becoming daily more apparent what a catastrophe it really will be. UK economy is already shrinking. Sterling decline is going to kick in major inflation. Stick tariffs on top of that. UK business paralysed as 15, maybe even 20% of UK freight capacity is removed as it is stuck in queues at borders. All the costs for the social disorder as Kent becomes a car-park and shops run out of food, exacerbated by the perfect timing of 31 October at the end of the British harvest (sharp rise in imported food) and the run-up to xmas. Panic buying and shortages of everything, even locally produced as there will be few free trucks to get anything anywhere as much transport will be commandeered for medical supplies. Massive layoffs as manufacturing industry virtually stops overnight with the loss of favoured trading access (via EU deals) to most export markets, not just EU. A tariff of 15% won't much affect sales of German cars in the UK (as what is the alternative and anyway the profits are such that the manufacturers may well absorb much of the cost) but it will be a lethal body-blow to the sales of UK-manufactured Nissans in Europe.

The only solution will be a chastened UK doing a fast and sensible deal with the EU. And all completely unnecessary.
Another solution is a Marxist coup by Corbyn and McDonnell, per Lenin's four criteria for revolution:
Ruling class unable to govern (check)
Middle Class disenfranchised (check)
Working class ready to fight (check)
Marxist leadership of the workers (check)...

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Old Aug 15th 2019, 2:27 pm
  #29  
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope
I'm coming around to the view that a hard no-deal Brexit is the best outcome.
It will certainly resolve the issue more quickly.

I don't expect utter chaos on 31s Oct / 1st Nov, at least not in terms of the borders, because hauliers and exports will already have made decisions not to send goods to the border. No trucker is going to want to be stuck in a queue for weeks, so they'll just sit tight at home and hope something gets figured out longer term. Most big companies will have some stockpiles, so shortages shouldn't be visible immediately.

But as time goes on, the UK's negotiating position is not going to get any better. Whatever damage you can do to Germany and the others, they will be doing to the UK five or tenfold. Their red lines mean just as much to them, it will ultimately come down to who can keep it up longest. It seems unlikely the UK can. If the UK government had 90% of the population behind it, and parliament, you might be able to argue that there would be the will to tough it out. But the UK is doing the most drastic version of brexit on the back of a marginal result in a referendum where it's fair to say "no deal" talk was condemned as remainer scaremongering at the time.

No deal as a concept simply cannot stick with such marginal support, and given the red lines of the EU which are pretty much set in stone, it's likely the UK position will collapse fairly quickly and a single market / customs union deal would follow rather quickly afterwards, and both sides will breathe a sigh of relief.

There will be a hardcore in the UK who will complain about 'treachery', but everyone else will just be happy that Brexit is largely out of the news, there is no need for the UK to negotiate trade deals or deal with the NI border issues. People can continue to live and work in the EU, and UK companies can continue to hire EU citizens. Everything will carry on largely as before, but with the brexit headbangers a busted flush, and the UK rather less influencial having lost its seat at the table where the rules are made. The UK will just have to accept being a second tier power, and maybe in a generation, the EU will let it back, if it is sure that the UK's island mentality and over-inflated view of itself has truly been snuffed out.

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Old Aug 18th 2019, 6:49 am
  #30  
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

"No deal as a concept simply cannot stick with such marginal support, and given the red lines of the EU which are pretty much set in stone, it's likely the UK position will collapse fairly quickly and a single market / customs union deal would follow rather quickly afterwards, and both sides will breathe a sigh of relief."

Yes, I am a committed Brexiteer, but to me this would be the ideal outcome and was, in fact, my preference all along. Most people I know of my age group who were exit biased were looking for exactly this; a return to the original EEC without all of the other costs and restrictions that the EU has imposed.

I do also agree that it would be nice to get Brexit out of the news as then Sky would have nothing to say and hopefully disappear from our screens
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