Celticspirit

Just as I am planning my return and ready to transfer partial monies from my USA HSBC account to the UK. Already have cheque book, Mastercard and ATM card for my UK account but have not yet transferred $$$. Bad timing I guess

dunroving

Once again it shows the experts don't have a clue. If it's any consolation, it was at $2 = £1 when I came back.

Celticspirit

In 1972 when we arrived we got $2.40 to the £1. We thought we were rich....coming from a junior Dr. Post to a teaching post at Southwestern Dallas. We had £700 and a tea chest full of toys for our 20 month old son.......now an associate professor at Columbia/Pres hospitals in NYC.
For me + two divorces.....I wish we had never left Belfast :-(

Celticspirit

However my new mantra is " Don't look back - you're not going that way"
Big grin :-)

Bud the Wiser

Frustrating isn't it? My own 'guess' is that it will drop back down to around $1.55 by the end of the year.

Celticspirit

OMG......then transfer just enough for 6 months rent, 3 tiny dogs and spending money fast.....I do think you are guessing right given political sh** in the USA.

Mummy in the foothills

I hope so, Dh has brought his last paycheck with him and I need to deposit them, should be a couple of months of money if the rate improves.
I caught it just right with the house sale money I was so relived when that happened seeing houses cost more here (well it feels like it)

robin1234

I've experienced dollar versus pound exchange rates periodically since 1973. From memory they have gradually drifted back and forth between a low of one dollar = one pound to a high of $2.40 = one pound within that period. Sometimes it's worked in my favor, sometimes not ... But at least we haven't experienced currency collapse, wheelbarrow mode . Yet.

bigglesworth

Speaking as an (ex) currency trader, the long run average over the last thirty years or so (including wild fluctuations) is aboutb1.65 maybe 1.70.

Whether that holds true now that Very Important People have decided they know better than the rest of us, and if the world does not agree with their idea of the desirability of a currency, they will simply print their own, I have absolutely no idea.

But given that all the Western world is, in one fashion or another, doing the same, it should return to the mean.

I HOPE! And just when is anybody's guess. Fingers crossed.

scot47

In my childhood it was $4.80 to £1. (And there was a thriving black market because of exchange control !)

Pulaski

My experience as an interested party over the same time period would suggest an average around 5¢ lower, in the 1.60-1.65. range, and mostly within +/- 20¢ during those thirty years. The economists say that the short-medium term prospects for the US economy are better than for the British economy, but recent news suggests otherwise, with the QE program continuing in the US to promote growth, and a reported up-tick in British manufacturing causing the British pound to rise against the dollar. The role of the dollar as a "safe haven" in times of uncertainty also likely pushed the dollar down as the situation in Syria pulled back from the brink. I doubt there will be a reverse (dollar rises, pound falls) before the year end, unless Syria, or another international flash point flares up or the British economy stumbles.

bigglesworth

Very very interesting point. Gets right to the nub, doesn't it?

There are two questions.

Firstly WHY did Britain stop QE when it did? Especially given the variant natures of the employment situation in both countries.
Presumably in part because the sheer profligacy of the first ten years of the millennium meant there was less wiggle room. (Interesting though that the employment rate has continued to rise, despite high continuing levels of immigration. Which does not surprise me - people who get off their bottoms to seek a better life are bound to try hard). But to be fair employment has risen strongly ever since.

But also why, after so many signals that QE would stop, did Bernanke change his mind and keep the presses running, even though - looking at employment numbers again (not unemployment) it seems to be failing?

What on earth is going on in the USA that we do not know?

Spoken as a huge supporter of the USA.

Pulaski

I think that the political risk is very much that QE stops too soon, and there is much less political risk in continuing, even if that means continuing too long. It's all about politics and getting reelected; that's all there is and all that matters!

Giantaxe

The Fed said it would stop QE when unemployment dropped below 7.0%. It's 7.3% right now.

Giantaxe

The Fed Reserve chairman is an appointed rather than elected position. And Bernanke has already said he won't stand for another term. I doubt his position is being driven by political risk.