Don

There isn't a good model out there. Real inflation rate, how much out of kilter the house prices are (ie on trend re: average earnings/ in a bubble/ or bubble burst), health of the economy, supply & demand issues, employment - all have an important role.

Quinkana

The worry is people who won't save up and buy a house with cash. Smaller equity, bigger worry. Access to low equity mortgages just increases the cost of housing relative to incomes and increases the cyclicity of housing and the economy and brings forward consumption during the upswings.

odaat

[QUOTE=ladylisa] why is everyone getting their knickers in a twist. The average mortgage is 25 years, in that time any property will rise in value anyway. My father in law who is now 72 bought his first house for £4500. and sold his last house for £600,000, he only owned 3 houses all his life. Thats the reality, everyone should stop looking at short term issues. As far as I can see it if you can afford your monthly mortgage payment then your ok."

I have not read your comments before - but you have no idea what is going on in the UK property market.....

Over the weekend I made three offers on investment property - the owners have owned for less than 3 years, my offers were 20 - 25% below the asking price stated ... IE 82,750 on asking price of 120,950

Unless significant deposit's have been put down, they are looking at negative equity. The misery of mortgage debt and plans shattered.They are debt trapped and forced to sell.

Most *modern* buyers have put down nil to 5% deposits, they are starting to come out of low interest mortgage offer periods - suddenly they have mortgages that have interest rate jumps of 2- 3%

They will have more than knickers in a twist if offer prices deteriorate, stealth taxes continue to rise, oil prices continue to rise and wages freeze...

The housing market is run on *sentiment* - not rational analysis, its educated dolts like Stanton who cannot see beyond yesterday's news and perceived asking prices and market "hype".

Property asking prices are being ignored as buyer sentiment grows - stats and opinion are worthless to a buyer who is confident that the seller is motivated and no other buyers are out there.

- Have u heard of the 7 "D"'s ?

Debt
Divorce
Dole
Disease / Death
Drop outs ( Migrators )
Downsizers
Dependants ( a new baby)

The above are "motivated" to sell in the present falling market choice is not an option in many cases.

How your father in law managed to stay in three props over a 50 yr period is a thing of the past. People do not live like that in Blairs Britain.

BTW - two of the homeowner estate agents have been trying to put up a case for raising the price - I made it clear my offers are fixed price for 7 days only - I am confident they will accept - the good old days are here again tra lah la la laa !!!

Kath

[QUOTE=odaat] Odaat

Your post has got me thinking! We are moving back to England next month after 2 years in Australia. We have a good deposit for a home but will rent initially to get a feel for the market. I've been looking at homes via rightmove.co.uk that I feel are 20%++ over-valued, I was interested you've been making such low offers - what is the response from agents?

We were going to sit tight then wait for home owners to drop the price, would you recommend putting in low offers now? I'd be interested in any feedback you've had from agents, vendors etc, have you had any low offers accepted?

It looks like the market is beginning to turn in our favour, maybe we should take advantage of our "no chain, good equity" position.

odaat

Kath,
You have what is known as "leverage". Estate agents will drool for your custom.

My 2P worth :-

Stay with family or store all your goods and lease a furnished property on as short a lease as possible on your return to UK.

Focus on a specific area and property type to suit your purchase need over the next 5 - 10 yr period at least, it may take up to a decade for prices to rise again - Be very very choosy in what you want as a PPOR ( Permanent Place of Residence )

Put an ad. in the local paper - state you want to buy, area and price, many sellers are desparate to sell - let them come to you and bypass the agent.

have business cards made up and give one to anybody you meet in the area who may know of anyone desparate to sell.

Saturate the local estate agents in the area with your "wish list" property - have a rough ball park figure on price let the estate agents come back to you.

View lots and lots of property - leg work is essential - the quality of UK housing is very poor, check the area and make sure what is described on paper is in reality as well.

surf the big property engines www.rightmove, www.hometrack, www.fish4sale , www.propertyfinder. start comparing prices and look at price patterns in your area.

Surf property for sale by owner sites as well.

listen to the property owner not the estate agents, listen for the "motivational factors" that make them want to sell.

View the house, keep a detailed list of pos + neg on the property.

Always compare 5 or 6 houses on quality and price

Make a specific offer based on comparables, quality of property in the area and the sellers motivational factor - not your feelings.

Never make an offer and then go up in thousands, it makes you seem a total dolt and speculator.

go up in hundreds if you really want the property or pull out.

keep your eye on the property, if it is still unsold a few weeks later, make your original offer again.

good luck and keep us informed how you go.

odaat

Quinkana

Property Crashes are nearly as good as Train Wreck Spotting but, while not as immediately dramatic, this really might ruin your day (and your house price):

Life After the Oil Crash

Field by field analysis of UK oil production:

odaat

Q - Oil peak gloom is american pap at its worst.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/s...318873,00.html
House price "crash" is as certain as Blair planning an exit strategy.

Quinkana

Know something?

The United States of America Energy Information Administration view:
United Kingdom

Oil Production (2003E): 2.38 million bbl/d (763M bbl/yr = $US 39G / yr)
Oil Consumption (2003E): 1.69 million bbl/d ($US 28G / yr)
Net Oil Exports (2003E): 0.69 million bbl/d ($US 12G / yr)

Will keep a small fire under British house prices for a decade, perhaps.

Perhaps you prefer a UK Gov't source:
Oil Production

Ranges of UK Reserves and Undiscovered Resources

odaat

Q - the reports are sterile, long winded and written by dolts who spout and splutter data that states the world uses a lot of oil....

Perhaps a new thread "Q reckons the world is stuffed due to oil consumption"

Quinkana

You're obviously a property "doer" - and why not.

So here is the bottom line from Oil Production

Total Crude Oil from Offshore Fields ('000 Tonnes)
1999 124,886
2000 114,830
2001 106,547
2002 105,369
2003 96,811

Production is dropping.

The UK economy has done well in part due to not having to import oil and being able to export some oil - and due to Maggie sacking the unprofitable coal miners etc. Oil helped puff up real estate. Not sure I'd say that the 1988 Piper Alpha disaster added to the drop in real estate values but it did not cause them to increase.

In ~ a decade, having to import oil will be a drain on the UK economy and on property values.

Take the main chance while you can afford the risks.

odaat

Q - U really should get out and about more often and smell the coffee... As I recall the CEO of BP was bolloc*ed this year for exaggerating oil reserves held, and I note this govt tax on oil sales have not changed to compensate higher oil prices ... what if the stats are bogus - we are consuming more than ever and the *cost of production* is declining ?

if I had been more clued up I would have been purchasing oil futures - then I too would be happy and one dimensional spouting figures and stats to argue price hikes.....now who was it that said lies, damn lies and statistics ?

enough said on oil ......PPPPPPLLLEEAAASSSSEEEEE - there's more than enough money to be made property speculating -

arnie2oz

[QUOTE=odaatOver the weekend I made three offers on investment property - the owners have owned for less than 3 years, my offers were 20 - 25% below the asking price stated ... IE 82,750 on asking price of 120,950

Unless significant deposit's have been put down, they are looking at negative equity. The misery of mortgage debt and plans shattered.They are debt trapped and forced to sell.

Most *modern* buyers have put down nil to 5% deposits, they are starting to come out of low interest mortgage offer periods - suddenly they have mortgages that have interest rate jumps of 2- 3%

They will have more than knickers in a twist if offer prices deteriorate, stealth taxes continue to rise, oil prices continue to rise and wages freeze...

The housing market is run on *sentiment* - not rational analysis, its educated dolts like Stanton who cannot see beyond yesterday's news and perceived asking prices and market "hype".

Property asking prices are being ignored as buyer sentiment grows - stats and opinion are worthless to a buyer who is confident that the seller is motivated and no other buyers are out there.

- Have u heard of the 7 "D"'s ?

Debt
Divorce
Dole
Disease / Death
Drop outs ( Migrators )
Downsizers
Dependants ( a new baby)

The above are "motivated" to sell in the present falling market choice is not an option in many cases.

BTW - two of the homeowner estate agents have been trying to put up a case for raising the price - I made it clear my offers are fixed price for 7 days only - I am confident they will accept - the good old days are here again tra lah la la laa !!! [/QUOTE]

So you recommend this kind of investment as a way to make money for anyone with enough cash then?

I can see that there is always money to be made from other peoples misfortune - is there a course we can go on to develop a special kind of morality and thick skin?

Hopefully what goes around comes around

Don

It's not making money from somebody's misfortune - it's just paying market price for an asset. If the seller is not happy with the price offered, they could go elsewhere to find a buyer.

I don't understand why there is antagonism towards buy-to-let investors - what exactly are they doing that is immoral? They are buying somebody's property for a mutually agreed price then providing a service to the rental mkt for a profit - they are not new Rachmans.

Quinkana

Doubtless you are right about the coffee. My point, somewhat indirect, was about risk. Speculating directly on oil is high risk, high leverage but economies and medium term investment in houses are exposed to oil price risk. When young one can afford to take more risk.

So what are you doing: buying properties to rent at an acceptable yield (ie medium - longer term) or straight speculation (ie a quickish turn)?

odaat

[QUOTE=arnie2oz
So you recommend this kind of investment as a way to make money for anyone with enough cash then?

I can see that there is always money to be made from other peoples misfortune - is there a course we can go on to develop a special kind of morality and thick skin?

Hopefully what goes around comes around [/QUOTE]

Arnie,
Its the *choices* we make that fashion destiny, not *lady luck or spiritual boomerangs*

Yes, there is a course you can go to develop a special morality and thick skin - its called "the road to nowhere", its an easy road - just follow any road without a plan or direction and you will get there.....

Alternatively you can have a plan, choose a road, measure the change and know where you are going......