odaat

http://www.thisismoney.com/20040923/nm82776.html

odaat

This is even better reading....

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

possoms

your a little ray of sunshine are'nt you

donglemouse

"the housing market is in real danger of crashing"

"there is a danger that higher interest rates could trigger a much larger downward adjustment in house prices"

quotes from the first article I'm not saying it won't happen but your message header "Property crash is finally here in UK" is somewhat unfair I would suggest

odaat

It takes a while for the ship to turn - its the little changes in direction that give the plot away IMO

donglemouse

perhaps or maybe little changes in direction have nothing to do with the big plot

let's face it even the experts can't decide if or when it's going to happen

MikeStanton

Jeez, now Odaat's spread the word, I'm bailing out of the UK

And over to Oz. Oh, I forgot, they're suffering from a housing 'crash' too...

ladylisa

Fail to see why this is so great... are sick puppies great too? Sorry just trying to get an idea of where you are coming from

Manc

from a renter looking to by a house, when the prices come tumbling, that's where.

ladylisa

granted but what about all those poor buggers up to their armpits in negative equity.

Manc

It's been a known fact that house prices are only worth what people are prepared to buy them for, if you bought a 3 bed semi for £270,000 and now it's only worth £220,000 then whose fault is it? no-one held a gun to their heads.

odaat

I travel between UK + Oz on business - the last three years of House Price Increases across the UK have been astonishing. Greed was good.

Self certification ( u can say u earn whatever !) led people to borrow way over what they could afford, in the hope of prices rising and selling for profit .

BTL mortgages encouraged many to buy and buy more property to rent out.

The bubble is bursting and *everyone* will suffer - not least the lending institutions who gave so much to so many who cannot pay back.

BTW - I am a property investor !!

dugongs

I think house prices in Oz and UK are both over valued. I do not think there will be a huge crash in the SE of the UK though. Population growth here is so high the dips will be bought into. What has happened in the UK is that a lot of speculative money has gone into the north forcing prices to double for what are often very inferior properties with little demand for letting. These rises show the market rising quickly but were always silly. In reality the market in the south has been drifting for the past 3 years or so with small rise of say no more than 10% during this period. This is the reality and unless interest rates rise or unemployment rises I think once the steam comes out of the north we will be left with a flat market for a few years or so.

I do worry about Oz though as the economy is so linked to construction and commodities can it sustain the levels of house prices compared to average incomes if the world slows down further next year.

odaat

Dugongs - smart analysis, applause to u.
Agree with you on poor quality of housing stock sold for silly prices -

Also agree with you that the south will fare better in the long term due to higher salary ratio and job market options.

My view on the issue is much more of a micro level....

Many FTB over the last 24 months are coming out of the low start mortgage rate - they will be facing 2% interest rate rises , thats 200 pounds a month extra to find on a straight 100K mortgage ( the average mortgage taken out in the south is more like 150K ) many could hardly afford the prop. in the first place, but price rises spooked the masses into buying for fear of being left behind.

Props that have fallen even 5% in the last 2 years have put many new buyers into negative equity already. Many who bought tiny little souless new build boxes on souless estates will be crippled the most. New Build Estates in South London were selling 2 bed boxes @ 245K - same props available today @ 199K !! - thats a 20% dropputting owner occupiers 40K in negative equity already.

On top of that Utility bills have rises by up to 10%, so have communal rates, lending rates and gas prices - many new property owners have had no choice but to utilise credit cards to get out of the fix.....only to be trapped in more debt long term.

Then there is just the plain silly purchases - Liverpool 2 bed terrace sold for 50K in March 2003, same prop. purchased @ 8K in 1996 ! prop. sold to "investor" from the south, chap came up from London on the weekend to "supervise" refurbishment of bathroom + kitchen + central heating system.

He left on The Monday morning and returned on the Friday - house empty, tradesmen gone, bathroom + kitchen + central heating boiler and pipes gone.Prop remained vacant for 6 months - sold via auction in August @ 35K ! I believe the new owner - a chap from the south is coming up on the weekend to supervise the refurb !!

BTW - I am selling off some props in Oz and will be shopping for quality props in UK over the next year or two

Badge

of course! Noone said they weren't. (!)