Opinions - Are the Chinese going to Annex Taiwan?
 

I think this is looking more likely.

Whats going on right now? Macron in France is still having a hissy fit over losing its nuclear submarine deal with the Australians, to the UK and America. He is also pushing for an EU army, something the germans are frankly afraid of, they cant afford it and having a credible force opposing Russia may just be bad politics for them. The EU are doing deals with Russia for gas because they have no alternative... and doing trade deals with China after the USA, UK and Australia seem to be gearing up towards protecting Taiwan and their neighbours if, as expected, China invades. The EU looks as though it may leave NATO eventually because of this shift towards Russia which will cause it to break up really. This is likely to result in the UK US and Asian countries forging closer ties.

Possibly more importantly, is this the chinese crimea, a quick only partially dirty takeover, or is this a shooting war that the US or Australians wish to be involved in, in which case it could be very nasty.

Re: Opinions - Are the Chinese going to Annex Taiwan?
 

Firstly, the EU is not a member of NATO. The EU is not a country; it is a political union. It does not represent countries within NATO and has no business with respect to the affairs of NATO members.

It is likely the Chinese will invade Taiwan at some point in the future; and as usual the Americans and the British will do nothing but talk words of outrage and place sanctions against the leadership within the Chinese Communist Party – which will do sweet nothing, of course.

The problem is that China is a nuclear weapons state, and countries like USA/UK/France cannot go to war with another country with nuclear weapons, except for self-defence, because there is only one outcome from it: mutual destruction. It is the same reason they couldn't take military action against Russia when they invaded Ukraine and unlawfully annexed Crimea.

What China and Russia have learned in recent decades is that they can push certain boundaries without any significant consequences. There are exceptions, of course. For example if Russia declared war on the UK, they know the Americans would intervene and obviously the UK has nuclear weapons of its own.

Because China and Russia are authoritarian regimes without real elections – with the same people in power for decades at a time – they are able to put in place long-term plans, which take decades to materialize, in a way that western democracies cannot.

In other words, China and Russia have learned that the Americans won't intervene unless it threatens a country which is of strategic importance to the U.S. For example, the UK is of strategic importance to the Americans because the UK has been a stable democracy for hundreds of years compared to the rest of Europe.

The British have often been the last line of defence when every other country in Europe has fallen to fascism or communism. This is what started what was once described as the "Special Relationship" between the UK and the USA during the 20th century. I don't think politicians in the UK like to use this phrase anymore, but the relationship is still very close between both countries.

Similarly, if North Korea attacked South Korea or U.S. assets in the region, the Americans would attack North Korea non-stop until the regime was eliminated. The Americans know tactfully that the Russians and the Chinese won't directly defend North Korea if that happens, because the one boundary they won't dare cross is to attack the U.S. military when it is not for self-defence.

We will see the Indo-Pacific region having the largest share of economic growth in the decades ahead, and this is why the British are prioritizing trade agreements with countries in that region. The British are also keen to join the CPTPP for the same reason.

Interestingly, the AUKUS security pact – between Australia, the UK and the USA – covers the Indo-Pacific region. All three countries know that the Indo-Pacific region will have the largest share of economic growth over the medium- to long-term, and they don't want the Chinese to fully control the region and pose a greater threat to their mutual allies – Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.

China is creating artificial islands in the South China Sea to try and claim a greater extent of that region as part of their territorial waters. Under international law, countries cannot create artificial islands to extend their territorial waters or the area beyond their territorial waters which constitute part of their exclusive economic zone.

The Americans and the British are also worried that China will colonize other countries in the region. It's possible the AUKUS security pact is also designed to deter the Chinese from attacking other countries in the region which the Chinese regime claim as their own.

The only thing the Chinese are doing well is to isolate themselves in the region. Soon the only partners they will have left is Russia and North Korea, and countries in the African and Caribbean region which are beholden to China via debt diplomacy.

The increasing rhetoric and aggression by the Chinese are causing them to be seen as an emerging threat by almost every country in their immediate region who possess a sizeable military (Australia, India, Japan, etc), and indeed by countries in the western hemisphere (USA, UK, France, etc).

As the British and the Australians have said, they don't want a new Cold War, but unless the Chinese stop being aggressive with its neighbors and end its territorial claims and threats against other countries like India and Taiwan, a new Cold War is inevitable.

Re: Opinions - Are the Chinese going to Annex Taiwan?
 

Hi Grenada! I've only just now noticed this thread! It deserves a lot more attention than the one single response. Here's my quick take on your fascinating topic.

To the best of my knowledge, the Island of Taiwan is officially The Republic of China. Here's what Wikipedia says about that. On 7 December 1949, after the loss of four capitals, Chiang evacuated his Nationalist government to Taiwan and made Taipei the temporary capital of the ROC (also called the "wartime capital" by Chiang Kai-shek). Some 2 million people, consisting mainly of soldiers, members of the ruling Kuomintang and intellectual and business elites, were evacuated from mainland China to Taiwan at that time, adding to the earlier population of approximately six million. These people came to be known in Taiwan as "waisheng ren", residents who came to the island in the 1940s and 50s after Japan's surrender, as well as their descendants.

So it's not a question of the Island being "annexed" by China. It is an integral part of China. (The UK never formally annexed Northern Island, right?) As far as the government of mainland China is concerned, it's just a rebel province that it (the government) just hasn't gotten around to bringing to heel. For foreigners to support the rebels is as outrageous as Ireland - or the EU - supporting, and threatening to annex, the people of Ulster. Or, indeed, Russia supporting the people of Donbass...! Sigh. There is a lot of inconsistency in the world, isn't there?

Re: Opinions - Are the Chinese going to Annex Taiwan?
 

I quite like the [historical] position that taiwan actually should have taken over the mainland, it now seems like a stand-off. China needs Taiwan and visa versa, the only risk is that China will attempt to do what it did in Hong Kong, but that seems unlikely given Taiwans more independent and stable position. I think so long as they maintain relations, all should be quiet.

Re: Opinions - Are the Chinese going to Annex Taiwan?
 

I live in Taiwan and believe it is extremely unlikely that China will ever invade. For one thing, the West has completely misunderstood Xi and China, just as they misunderstood Putin and Russia. For another, an invasion across 100 miles of rough sea is not as easy as just driving tanks down the road. It would be extremely costly and would anger all the countries that do business with Taiwan and rely on their semiconductors, which is every country in the world.

But the real reason China won’t invade is because they don’t have to. They can just impose a total air and sea blockade around the island and starve us into submission. Trust me, whether there is an invasion or a blockade, neither the US, Australia, NATO, nor anyone else will do anything more than virtue signaling gestures. Any US aircraft carriers coming near Taiwan in that situation would be quickly sunk by supersonic missiles from China’s coast. China and Taiwan have been very productive business partners for many years and are content to keep it that way. China just doesn't want America to build up Taiwan as their military proxy they way they built up Ukraine. The American military-industrial complex and their puppet president in Taiwan are provoking tensions to give themselves an excuse for that military build up.

Re: Opinions - Are the Chinese going to Annex Taiwan?
 

As far as I can tell, China is not in the business of going to war at the drop of anybody's hat. America and its puppets in the "Free World" don't understand this. China has a military-industrial complex, of course, but it's not nearly as influential as the US's or its allies'. I don't think any of us need to lose sleep worrying about China invading anywhere, any time. It has better things to do - more constructive things, like forging international trade-links.