Statsman

UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com and
click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
statistics.

Desmond Coughlan

le Wed, 29 Jan 2003 14:27:16 -0500, dans l'article , Statsman a dit ...

    > UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com and
    > click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
    > statistics.

Yep ... and you're _still_ around six times more likely to be murdered in
'America' (sic), than in Britain.

Pity that ... your post looks like useless, infantile, mindless cack now,
doesn't it ? Hint: that's because it is.

--
Desmond Coughlan
desmond @ zeouane.org
http: // www . zeouane . org

David Bennetts

"Statsman" wrote in message
news:cXVZ9.111$B8.23368@localhost...
    > UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com
and
    > click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
    > statistics.
Are they? Who's fibbing - see:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/1619107.stm which suggests just the
opposite.

Regards

David Bennetts
Australia

Owain

"Statsman" wrote
    > UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com and
    > click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
    > statistics.

Your point is...?

Why do we hear so much about UK crime and nothing about any other
country?

The link you suggested contravenes my PC's ActiveX security settings.
But through the UK National Statistics site I linked to homicides in
Scotland information for the year 2001.

"Scottish police recorded 107 victims of homicide in 2001, 2 more than
in 2000.

"In 2001, there were 104 cases currently recorded as homicide by the
police, the same number as in 2000. These cases resulted in the death
of 107 victims, 2 more than in 2000. The number of homicide victims
per million population was 21 in both 2000 and 2001."

I'd be very interested to know how 21 per million head of population
in Scotland compares to, say, US states.

"For all but 2 of the homicide victims in 2001, one or more accused
persons have been identified."

Again, I'd be interested to know how a 98% rate for identification of
a presumed perpetrator (in effect, solved cases) compares with other
police areas.

"Of the 105 victims where an accused person(s) has been identified,
the main accused was known to the victim in over three quarters of
cases ...

"The proportion of victims who were killed by a stranger or where the
relationship between the victim and accused was unknown, was 21 per
cent, similar to the proportion reported in each of the previous 4
years."

So, only 21 per cent of homicides are "stranger killings" ie. the sort
tourists have to worry about.

Finally, the cause of death being shooting was only 6% [statistical
error - shown as 5% in report below - this is based on only 5 cases in
a year]

The above statistics are those for what in Scottish law is defined as

"murder and common law culpable homicide. Causing death by dangerous
driving and causing death by careless driving while under the
influence of drink or drugs are excluded. In 2001, there were 34 such
crimes recorded by the police (including 2 of death by careless
driving while under the influence of drugs or alcohol).

Above quotes and stats taken from
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00205-00.asp

Looking at firearms related crime in more detail, and bearing in mind
that a firearm was not necessarily discharged (or may have been an
imitation) as these are counted in the statistics below,

"In 2001 the Scottish police recorded 1,030 offences in which a
firearm was alleged to have been used, an increase of 10 per cent from
the 938 recorded in 2000. This increase affected all categories of
offences, except robbery. The 2001 level is 47 per cent LOWER than the
peak 1992 figure." [my emphasis]

"The 10 per cent increase ... was entirely due to an increase in
offences involving firearms in the 'Other' and 'IMITATION FIREARM'
categories."

"The use of firearms in criminal activity constituted only a small
proportion of all offences recorded by the police in 2001; 5 per cent
of recorded homicides (5 offences), 4 per cent of recorded attempted
murders (29 offences) and 3 per cent of recorded robberies (115
offences). Less than half a per cent of recorded assaults (260
offences) and vandalism offences (264 offences) involved the alleged
use of a firearm."

"Airweapons accounted for 50 per cent of all offences involving
firearms in 2001. The total number of offences which involved the use
of an airweapon decreased by 10 per cent from 570 in 2000 to 513 in
2001. Excluding the category 'Other', the two equal second most common
categories of firearm were a pistol/revolver - used in 6 per cent of
recorded offences in 2001 and an imitation firearm also used in 6 per
cent of recorded offences. The number of offences involving the
alleged use of a pistol/revolver was at its LOWEST since 1993,
decreasing 31 per cent from 93 in 2000 to 64 in 2001. The number of
offences involving the alleged use of a shotgun decreased from 39 in
2000 to 35 in 2001 (the LOWEST number EVER recorded)." [my emphasis]

"Of the 1,030 offences involving the use of a firearm in 2001, 68 per
cent involved the actual discharge of the firearm — the same as in
2000."

Crime is not evenly spread throughout the country.

"The Strathclyde police force area which contains 44 per cent of the
Scottish population, accounted for more than one half (52 per cent) of
all offences in which a firearm was alleged to have been used in 2001.
More specifically, 90 per cent of recorded robberies, 68 per cent of
Firearms Act 1968 offences, 62 per cent of assaults ... took place in
Strathclyde."

Strathclyde is a very large place (5000 sq miles) and has some of the
most deprived peripheral housing schemes in the country. It also has
some very nice places too, including part of Loch Lomond, Argyllshire,
and Ayrshire, and Glasgow was recently voted the "coolest" city in
both Scotland and Britain in a recent nationwide survey by The Big
Issue.

Above quotes and stats taken from
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00189-00.asp

One interesting comparison is that (although I hoped the above would
be reassuring), Scotland's homicide rate is actually significantly
higher than that of England and Wales, particularly that of 12.91 per
million population for 'male victims by acquaintance' (compared to a
rate of 4.72 for this type of homicide in England and Wales).

Looking around the UK,

"Including all types of homicide in an analysis by standard regions,
Greater London has the highest rates, Scotland has the next highest,
the northern regions and Wales the next, while the rest of England
which includes the midlands and the south and south-west of England
has the lowest set of rates. This pattern of homicide rates gradually
getting lower as one moves southwards is fairly consistent for various
kinds of homicide. However, Greater London is always among the higher
rates.

"Of the eight Scottish police authorities, the rates for Strathclyde
are by far the highest with the rates in the other police authorities
significantly lower. The homicide rate for Strathclyde is higher than
for Greater London, although geographic and population differences
between the two areas should be considered in making this comparison."

However, although you're more likely to be murdered in Scotland (if
someone knows you), you're less likely to be the victim of other forms
of violence.

"Contrasting sharply with the pattern found when considering recorded
homicide figures, the violence victimisation rates in England & Wales
(as measured by recent national crime surveys) are statistically
significantly higher than those in Scotland for domestic, acquaintance
and stranger violence, for both male and female victims. The disparity
in the rates is greater for males for each type of violence than for
females, and thus people living in England & Wales seem to be at much
greater risk of experiencing violence than those in Scotland, and
males particularly so. Crime victimisation surveys show the increasing
importance of acquaintance violence in terms of incidents against both
men and women."

Above quotes and stats from
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/cru/resfinds/crf36-00.htm
Crown Copyright of all above quotations acknowledged.

I maintain my position that tourists are unlikely to be the victim of
any crime in the UK, and very very unlikely to be the victim of
violent crime, especially if common-sense precautions are taken.

Owain

Charles Hawtrey

On Thu, 30 Jan 2003 08:29:48 +1100, "David Bennetts"
wrote:

    >"Statsman" wrote in message
    >news:cXVZ9.111$B8.23368@localhost...
    >> UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com
    >and
    >> click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
    >> statistics.
    >Are they? Who's fibbing - see:
    >http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/1619107.stm which suggests just the
    >opposite.

The figures cited by the OP were trends for the entire 20th century,
while the BBC story focuses on the past few years. The OP should have
said "UK crime stats rose at a fantastic rate from 1900 through 1999."

Just one more illustration that you can often make whatever point you
want by selectively using the available data...


___________________________________________
Unit #02582: Endangered Old-Growth Redwood
Toothpick Artisans, LLC [TINEO-GRTALLC]
--
Frivolity is a stern taskmaster.

Charles Hawtrey

On Wed, 29 Jan 2003 19:58:44 +0000, Desmond Coughlan
wrote:

    >le Wed, 29 Jan 2003 14:27:16 -0500, dans l'article , Statsman a dit ...
    >> UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com and
    >> click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
    >> statistics.
    >Yep ... and you're _still_ around six times more likely to be murdered in
    >'America' (sic), than in Britain.
    >Pity that ... your post looks like useless, infantile, mindless cack now,
    >doesn't it ? Hint: that's because it is.

I'm curious as to why you're bringing 'America' (sic) into this when
the original poster said nothing about the U.S., and in fact is
posting from a Canadian internet address.

___________________________________________
Unit #02582: Endangered Old-Growth Redwood
Toothpick Artisans, LLC [TINEO-GRTALLC]
--
Frivolity is a stern taskmaster.

Anonymouse

Hi,

it's true you are more likely to survive the stabbing and robbery in the UK.

of course they probably got mad and stabbed you because you didn't have
any money after you got pick pocketed that afternoon.


Desmond Coughlan wrote:
    > le Wed, 29 Jan 2003 14:27:16 -0500, dans l'article , Statsman a dit ...
    >
    >
    >>UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com and
    >>click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
    >>statistics.
    >
    >
    > Yep ... and you're _still_ around six times more likely to be murdered in
    > 'America' (sic), than in Britain.
    >
    > Pity that ... your post looks like useless, infantile, mindless cack now,
    > doesn't it ? Hint: that's because it is.
    >

Magda

On Thu, 30 Jan 2003 01:05:18 GMT, in rec.travel.europe, [email protected] (Charles
Hawtrey) arranged some electrons, so they looked like this :

... On Wed, 29 Jan 2003 19:58:44 +0000, Desmond Coughlan
... wrote:
...
... >le Wed, 29 Jan 2003 14:27:16 -0500, dans l'article , Statsman a dit ...
... >
... >> UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com and
... >> click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
... >> statistics.
... >
... >Yep ... and you're _still_ around six times more likely to be murdered in
... >'America' (sic), than in Britain.
... >
... >Pity that ... your post looks like useless, infantile, mindless cack now,
... >doesn't it ? Hint: that's because it is.
...
... I'm curious as to why you're bringing 'America' (sic) into this when
... the original poster said nothing about the U.S., and in fact is
... posting from a Canadian internet address.

I'd say that it's because americans are eternally comparing themselves to the rest of the
world - they desperately need to believe that they are safer than the rest of us. Poor
dears.

P J Wallace

No they aren't. All that this extrapolated link shows is that absolute
numbers have risen over a century, with violent crime rising faster
than other crimes, but so has the population, and the national
prosperity (it was shown long ago, surprise surprise, that crimes of
violence rise with prosperity, crimes against property rise with
increases in poverty and unemployment). They are also statistics of
crime as reported to and recorded by the police - which is a very
unreliable index of what is actually happening.

Nice try at promoting a website, but if this is meant to be a serious
analysis of published statistics, it needs more thought and less Java.

A combined analysis of reported/recorded crime and the British Crime
Survey of what people actually experience shows that most crime has
been slightly declining over the last five years. See

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs1.html

PJW

On Wed, 29 Jan 2003 14:27:16 -0500, "Statsman"
wrote:

    >UK crime stats are rising at a fantastic rate. Go to www.storydata.com and
    >click on the 'World' link to see an interactive graphical display of the
    >statistics.

Nancy Kay

In article ,
Magda wrote:

    > I'd say that it's because americans are eternally comparing themselves to the
    > rest of the
    > world - they desperately need to believe that they are safer than the rest of
    > us. Poor
    > dears.

I'd say YOUR French attitude is coming thru loud and clear. Not all
Americans feel the way you have stated above.
--
Nancy Kay
remove go and gone.to.
"Patience is a virtue"

Magda

On Fri, 31 Jan 2003 04:51:49 GMT, in rec.travel.europe, Nancy Kay
arranged some electrons, so they looked like this :

... In article ,
... Magda wrote:
...
... > I'd say that it's because americans are eternally comparing themselves to the
... > rest of the
... > world - they desperately need to believe that they are safer than the rest of
... > us. Poor
... > dears.
...
... I'd say YOUR French attitude is coming thru loud and clear. Not all
... Americans feel the way you have stated above.

Thank dog, I know some exceptions... but they are hard to find. The species I mentioned
are everywhere, alas.

Earl Evleth

in article [email protected], Nancy Kay
at [email protected] wrote on 31/01/03 5:51:

    >> I'd say that it's because americans are eternally comparing themselves to the
    >> rest of the
    >> world - they desperately need to believe that they are safer than the rest of
    >> us. Poor
    >> dears.
    >
    > I'd say YOUR French attitude is coming thru loud and clear. Not all
    > Americans feel the way you have stated above.


Unfortunately in the political climate right now there is
a tendency to attribute attitudes broadly to "others" whomever
they may be.

American press will talk about "anti-Americanism" and the French
press is using the term "francophobie"

On the issue of UK crime rates, when items are posted, they seem to
come from Americans. One notices this news groups dealing with guns.
The American NRA and its supporters are very angry at the British
for outlawing handguns. So on any and all occasions they will
have something to say about crime rates in Britain.

There are, of course, other countries in Europe to turn one's
crime attention too but Americans are generally unlikely to
use www.google.fr, www.google.dk, www.google.il etc to test their language
abilities plus afford a greater research domain.

Being American myself, although also becoming French I tend to
see both sides of whatever question puts the Americans and French at
odds. Not being British I too can only judge from the press, or more
accurately from the statistical literature.

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/hosb702.pdf

gives the 2001-2002 report on crime in England-Wales, 199 pages full.

Earl

Zane

Earl Evleth wrote:

(snip)

    >The American NRA and its supporters are very angry at the British
    >for outlawing handguns. So on any and all occasions they will
    >have something to say about crime rates in Britain.

(snip)

I don't intend to take sides one way or another on the gun issue, but I
don't think that the seeming preoccupation with U.K. crime rates is due to
anger at the British.

The actions relative to controlling firearms taken in the U.K., Canada, and
Australia, for example, are very similar to many proposed by anti-gun
lobbies and Congressmen in the U.S.. It's of high interest, then, to show
by statistics that these gun limitations are not having (and probably will
not have) a significant effect on violent crime. Hence the truth of your
second sentence above.

Massachusetts and California are examples of U.S. States where the same
degree of interest, and probably even more seeming anger, are directed, as
they have implemented very stringent laws in the past few years.

Zane

Earl Evleth

in article [email protected], Zane at
[email protected] wrote on 14/02/03 22:32:

    > Earl Evleth wrote:
    >
    > (snip)
    >
    >> The American NRA and its supporters are very angry at the British
    >> for outlawing handguns. So on any and all occasions they will
    >> have something to say about crime rates in Britain.
    >
    > (snip)
    >
    > I don't intend to take sides one way or another on the gun issue, but I
    > don't think that the seeming preoccupation with U.K. crime rates is due to
    > anger at the British.

On the part of American gun lovers. Concern within the country is another
thing. If you Google Google-groups you get
16,000 hits, the first one on ths list today is entitled

"GUN-CONTROL LAWS DON'T STOP GUN CRIMES IN BRITAIN" although dates from

Joyce Lee Malcolm has recently published a book on "Gun and Violence, the
English Experience". She is an American scholar who leans towards the now
discredited thesis of John Lott (More Guns, less Crime). Why is an American
scholar so interested in English gun laws and crime. Finally, Charleton
Heston, head of the NRA felt it obliged to visit England and tell them about
the errors of their ways.


    > The actions relative to controlling firearms taken in the U.K., Canada, and
    > Australia, for example, are very similar to many proposed by anti-gun
    > lobbies and Congressmen in the U.S..

Great Britain's law goes well beyond anything politically possible in the
USA. The British experience is totally different, this is discussed in
Peter Squire's book on Gun control in Britain (he is a British academic).
The British popular desire was to nip the hand gun culture in the bud. Gun
related crimes in the US are nearly all hand gun crimes, from the mid-1980s
one a switch from lower caliber revolvers to high caliber semi-automatics
occurred. In British (and French) gun clubs, target shooting had shifted
from the competition type of small caliber weapons to high caliber ones
and using human shaped targets. This shocked public opinion in Britain
and played a role, besides several mass murders with weapons to completely
outlawing hand guns. The reaction was excessive since competition hand gun
shooting got knocked out too. Next, only 1% of the population are hunters
in Britain so gun use is not high there. France has the largest number
of hunters in Europe (3%) and is rural in character and is generally
supported by the population. Handgun ownership is not, however. But there
is no well organize anti-gun lobby in France.

Anyway, any comparison of gun control politics in England and the USA is
really of an apple and oranges. The American pro-gun groups just don`t like
the idea of other people outlawing guns and will lobby in Europe. We don`t
do the same in the USA. So the paranoia on the part of pro-gun groups
in the USA is unrealistic.


    > It's of high interest, then, to show
    > by statistics that these gun limitations are not having (and probably will
    > not have) a significant effect on violent crime.

That is not true. Take a look at NY City which has the toughest gun
carrying law in the nation. When homicides hit a peak around 1993
a big effort by urban police was made to "stop and frisk" which brought
the seizure of tens of thousands in NY city alone. Homicide rates dropped
quickly, at one time were around 2,000 a year to their present level of
around 600. This was part of the general "zero tolerance" crime enforcement
of the late 1990s. Similar gun seizure policies occurred in other areas
and brought significant drops in homicide rates. This includes Boston,
Chicago and Saint Louis.

So you have to look at specific enforcement programs directed at taking
hand guns of the streets, not general state laws. Going after fear
provoking "assault rifles" is a waste of time, but going after handguns
in the urban war zones is not.

Here is a comparative table of handgun manufacturing in the US,
violent crimes and homicide rates

Year total total handgun
violent crimes Manufactured homicide rates/100,000



1981 396,197 2,537,000 10,3
1982 372,477 2,628,000 9.6 Â
1983 330,419 1,967,000 8.6
1984 329,232 1,580,000 8.4
1985 340,942 1,550,000 8.4
1986 376,064 1,428,000 9.0
1987 365,709 1,659,000 8.7
1988 385,934 1,746,000 9.0
1989 410,039 2,031,000 9.3
1990 492,671 1,839,000 10.0
1991 548,667 1,838,266 10.5
1992 565,575 1,524,218 10.0
1993 581,697* 2,655,000 10.1
1994 542,529 2,582,000 9.6
1995 504,421 1,723,000 8.7
1996 458,458 1,484,477 7.9
1997 414,530 1,407,000 7.4
1998 364,776 1,185,000 6.8
1999 338,535 1,331,000 6.2
2000 341,831 1,282,000 6.1


It can be shown otherwise that recently manufactured handguns
play a bigger role in crime that the older ones. The reason
is that the stock of handguns held by the general public
are on the low caliber end of the range, new guns are more
powerful, semi-automatics had more fire power in terms
of number of bullets per weapon and "stopping power".


This is exactly the kind of situation the British did not
want happening in their country, lots of handguns.

Earl


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