2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
Jun 29th 2007, 3:47 am
#1
Guest
Posts: n/a
2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent2 hours, 11 minutes ago
This year is on track to be the second warmest since records began in the
1860s and floods in Pakistan or a heatwave in Greece may herald worse
disruptions in store from global warming, experts said on Friday.
"2007 is looking as though it will be the second warmest behind 1998," said
Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at Britain's University of
East Anglia, which provides data to the U.N.'s International Meteorological
Organization.
"It isn't far behind ... it could change, but at the moment this looks
unlikely," he told Reuters, based on temperature records up to the end of
April.
Jones had predicted late last year that 2007 could surpass 1998 as the
warmest year on record due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
emitted mainly by burning fossil fuels and an El Nino warming of the
Pacific.
Almost all climate experts say that the trend is towards more droughts,
floods, heatwaves and more powerful storms. But they say that individual
extreme events are not normally a sign of global warming because weather is,
by its nature, chaotic.
"Severe events are going to be more frequent," said Salvano Briceno,
director of the Geneva-based secretariat of the U.N. International Strategy
for Disaster Reduction.
The 10 warmest years in the past 150 years have all been since 1990. Last
year ranked number six according to the IMO. NASA, which uses slightly
different data, places 2005 as warmest ahead of 1998.
STORMS
Among extreme events, more than 500 people have died in storms and floods in
Pakistan, Afghanistan and India in the past week.
Temperatures in Greece reached 46 C (114.80F) this week as part of a
heatwave across parts of southern Europe. Parts of China have also had a
heat wave in recent days.
And torrential rains have battered northern England and parts of Texas,
where Austin has had its wettest year on record so far.
The U.N. climate panel, drawing on the work of 2,500 scientists, said this
year that it was "very likely" that human activities led by use of fossil
fuels were the main cause of a warming in the past half-century.
It gave a "best estimate" that temperatures will rise 1.8-4.0 Celsius (3.2
and 7.8 Fahrenheit) this century.
Briceno told Reuters that the world had to work out better policies to
prepare for disasters, saying that climate change was adding to already
increasing risks faced by a rising human population of about 6.6 billion
people.
Irrespective of warming, many people were cramming into cities, for
instance, settling in plains where there was already a risk of floods or
moving to regions vulnerable to droughts.
"We need to reduce all the underlying risk factors, such as by locating
communities out of hazard-prone areas," he said. "We now have a clearer
picture of what is going to happen and it's urgent that governments give
this higher priority."
In Germany, average temperatures for the 12 months to May 2007 smashed
records for the past century, raising questions about whether climate change
was quickening, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
"If this trend continues in the near future, we will be experiencing an
acceleration of global warming in Germany so far unexpected by climate
scientists," it said in a statement.
Copyright � 2007 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or
redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior
written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or
delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent2 hours, 11 minutes ago
This year is on track to be the second warmest since records began in the
1860s and floods in Pakistan or a heatwave in Greece may herald worse
disruptions in store from global warming, experts said on Friday.
"2007 is looking as though it will be the second warmest behind 1998," said
Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at Britain's University of
East Anglia, which provides data to the U.N.'s International Meteorological
Organization.
"It isn't far behind ... it could change, but at the moment this looks
unlikely," he told Reuters, based on temperature records up to the end of
April.
Jones had predicted late last year that 2007 could surpass 1998 as the
warmest year on record due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
emitted mainly by burning fossil fuels and an El Nino warming of the
Pacific.
Almost all climate experts say that the trend is towards more droughts,
floods, heatwaves and more powerful storms. But they say that individual
extreme events are not normally a sign of global warming because weather is,
by its nature, chaotic.
"Severe events are going to be more frequent," said Salvano Briceno,
director of the Geneva-based secretariat of the U.N. International Strategy
for Disaster Reduction.
The 10 warmest years in the past 150 years have all been since 1990. Last
year ranked number six according to the IMO. NASA, which uses slightly
different data, places 2005 as warmest ahead of 1998.
STORMS
Among extreme events, more than 500 people have died in storms and floods in
Pakistan, Afghanistan and India in the past week.
Temperatures in Greece reached 46 C (114.80F) this week as part of a
heatwave across parts of southern Europe. Parts of China have also had a
heat wave in recent days.
And torrential rains have battered northern England and parts of Texas,
where Austin has had its wettest year on record so far.
The U.N. climate panel, drawing on the work of 2,500 scientists, said this
year that it was "very likely" that human activities led by use of fossil
fuels were the main cause of a warming in the past half-century.
It gave a "best estimate" that temperatures will rise 1.8-4.0 Celsius (3.2
and 7.8 Fahrenheit) this century.
Briceno told Reuters that the world had to work out better policies to
prepare for disasters, saying that climate change was adding to already
increasing risks faced by a rising human population of about 6.6 billion
people.
Irrespective of warming, many people were cramming into cities, for
instance, settling in plains where there was already a risk of floods or
moving to regions vulnerable to droughts.
"We need to reduce all the underlying risk factors, such as by locating
communities out of hazard-prone areas," he said. "We now have a clearer
picture of what is going to happen and it's urgent that governments give
this higher priority."
In Germany, average temperatures for the 12 months to May 2007 smashed
records for the past century, raising questions about whether climate change
was quickening, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
"If this trend continues in the near future, we will be experiencing an
acceleration of global warming in Germany so far unexpected by climate
scientists," it said in a statement.
Copyright � 2007 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or
redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior
written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or
delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
Jun 29th 2007, 7:14 am
#2
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: 2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
This sounds like it came right out of Michael Crichton's _State of Fear_.
Jun 29th 2007, 9:54 am
#3
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: 2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
"Mxsmanic" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> This sounds like it came right out of Michael Crichton's _State of Fear_.
Here in North-East England it has been brass monkey weather since March, but
I doubt if Michael Crichton ever heard of Gateshead!
--
JohnT
news:[email protected]...
> This sounds like it came right out of Michael Crichton's _State of Fear_.
Here in North-East England it has been brass monkey weather since March, but
I doubt if Michael Crichton ever heard of Gateshead!
--
JohnT
Jun 29th 2007, 10:02 am
#4
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: 2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
JohnT <[email protected]> wrote:
> "Mxsmanic" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > This sounds like it came right out of Michael Crichton's _State of Fear_.
>
>
> Here in North-East England it has been brass monkey weather since March, but
> I doubt if Michael Crichton ever heard of Gateshead!
It was fine for the few minutes when I flew over there in March. Here,
it's been shit for the last few weeks, but before then, extraordinarily
fine weather, and warm temperatures. It's only the last few weeks I've
felt compelled to take an umbrella with me.
--
(*) ... of the royal duchy of city south and deansgate
http://www.davidhorne.net - real address on website
"Abominable, loyal, blind, apparently subservient."
Pres. Carter on Pres. Blair- May, 2007
> "Mxsmanic" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > This sounds like it came right out of Michael Crichton's _State of Fear_.
>
>
> Here in North-East England it has been brass monkey weather since March, but
> I doubt if Michael Crichton ever heard of Gateshead!
It was fine for the few minutes when I flew over there in March. Here,
it's been shit for the last few weeks, but before then, extraordinarily
fine weather, and warm temperatures. It's only the last few weeks I've
felt compelled to take an umbrella with me.
--
(*) ... of the royal duchy of city south and deansgate
http://www.davidhorne.net - real address on website
"Abominable, loyal, blind, apparently subservient."
Pres. Carter on Pres. Blair- May, 2007
Jun 29th 2007, 11:35 pm
#5
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: 2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
In article <C2AAF61B.E58B3%[email protected]>, Earl Evleth
<[email protected]> wrote:
>
> 2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
> By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent2 hours, 11 minutes ago
>
> This year is on track to be the second warmest since records began
Good Grief!
QED!
Member of the U.N. Climate Team Says You Can't Accurately Predict
Climate Change
Friday , June 29, 2007
By Brit Hume
Computer Models
A noted climate scientist who is part of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, now says computer models cannot
predict future climate ? and he says the IPCC is not in the climate
prediction business.
Kevin Trenberth of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research
wrote on a nature magazine blog that the U.N.'s dire forecasts about
the dangers of global warming are not climate predictions.
He says they are "what if" projections of future climate that
correspond to certain emissions scenarios. And he admits the computer
models don't even consider things such as the recovery of the ozone
layer.
He writes ? "The current projection method?can not work for many
aspects of climate, especially those related to the water cycle...The
science is not done because we do not have reliable or regional
predictions of climate."
> in the
> 1860s and floods in Pakistan or a heatwave in Greece may herald worse
> disruptions in store from global warming, experts said on Friday.
>
> "2007 is looking as though it will be the second warmest behind 1998," said
> Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at Britain's University of
> East Anglia, which provides data to the U.N.'s International Meteorological
> Organization.
>
> "It isn't far behind ... it could change, but at the moment this looks
> unlikely," he told Reuters, based on temperature records up to the end of
> April.
>
> Jones had predicted late last year that 2007 could surpass 1998 as the
> warmest year on record due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
> emitted mainly by burning fossil fuels and an El Nino warming of the
> Pacific.
>
> Almost all climate experts say that the trend is towards more droughts,
> floods, heatwaves and more powerful storms. But they say that individual
> extreme events are not normally a sign of global warming because weather is,
> by its nature, chaotic.
>
> "Severe events are going to be more frequent," said Salvano Briceno,
> director of the Geneva-based secretariat of the U.N. International Strategy
> for Disaster Reduction.
>
> The 10 warmest years in the past 150 years have all been since 1990. Last
> year ranked number six according to the IMO. NASA, which uses slightly
> different data, places 2005 as warmest ahead of 1998.
>
> STORMS
>
> Among extreme events, more than 500 people have died in storms and floods in
> Pakistan, Afghanistan and India in the past week.
>
> Temperatures in Greece reached 46 C (114.80F) this week as part of a
> heatwave across parts of southern Europe. Parts of China have also had a
> heat wave in recent days.
>
> And torrential rains have battered northern England and parts of Texas,
> where Austin has had its wettest year on record so far.
>
> The U.N. climate panel, drawing on the work of 2,500 scientists, said this
> year that it was "very likely" that human activities led by use of fossil
> fuels were the main cause of a warming in the past half-century.
>
> It gave a "best estimate" that temperatures will rise 1.8-4.0 Celsius (3.2
> and 7.8 Fahrenheit) this century.
>
> Briceno told Reuters that the world had to work out better policies to
> prepare for disasters, saying that climate change was adding to already
> increasing risks faced by a rising human population of about 6.6 billion
> people.
>
> Irrespective of warming, many people were cramming into cities, for
> instance, settling in plains where there was already a risk of floods or
> moving to regions vulnerable to droughts.
>
> "We need to reduce all the underlying risk factors, such as by locating
> communities out of hazard-prone areas," he said. "We now have a clearer
> picture of what is going to happen and it's urgent that governments give
> this higher priority."
>
> In Germany, average temperatures for the 12 months to May 2007 smashed
> records for the past century, raising questions about whether climate change
> was quickening, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
>
> "If this trend continues in the near future, we will be experiencing an
> acceleration of global warming in Germany so far unexpected by climate
> scientists," it said in a statement.
> Copyright � 2007 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or
> redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior
> written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or
> delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
>
<[email protected]> wrote:
>
> 2007 seen as second warmest year as climate shifts
> By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent2 hours, 11 minutes ago
>
> This year is on track to be the second warmest since records began
Good Grief!
QED!
Member of the U.N. Climate Team Says You Can't Accurately Predict
Climate Change
Friday , June 29, 2007
By Brit Hume
Computer Models
A noted climate scientist who is part of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, now says computer models cannot
predict future climate ? and he says the IPCC is not in the climate
prediction business.
Kevin Trenberth of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research
wrote on a nature magazine blog that the U.N.'s dire forecasts about
the dangers of global warming are not climate predictions.
He says they are "what if" projections of future climate that
correspond to certain emissions scenarios. And he admits the computer
models don't even consider things such as the recovery of the ozone
layer.
He writes ? "The current projection method?can not work for many
aspects of climate, especially those related to the water cycle...The
science is not done because we do not have reliable or regional
predictions of climate."
> in the
> 1860s and floods in Pakistan or a heatwave in Greece may herald worse
> disruptions in store from global warming, experts said on Friday.
>
> "2007 is looking as though it will be the second warmest behind 1998," said
> Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at Britain's University of
> East Anglia, which provides data to the U.N.'s International Meteorological
> Organization.
>
> "It isn't far behind ... it could change, but at the moment this looks
> unlikely," he told Reuters, based on temperature records up to the end of
> April.
>
> Jones had predicted late last year that 2007 could surpass 1998 as the
> warmest year on record due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
> emitted mainly by burning fossil fuels and an El Nino warming of the
> Pacific.
>
> Almost all climate experts say that the trend is towards more droughts,
> floods, heatwaves and more powerful storms. But they say that individual
> extreme events are not normally a sign of global warming because weather is,
> by its nature, chaotic.
>
> "Severe events are going to be more frequent," said Salvano Briceno,
> director of the Geneva-based secretariat of the U.N. International Strategy
> for Disaster Reduction.
>
> The 10 warmest years in the past 150 years have all been since 1990. Last
> year ranked number six according to the IMO. NASA, which uses slightly
> different data, places 2005 as warmest ahead of 1998.
>
> STORMS
>
> Among extreme events, more than 500 people have died in storms and floods in
> Pakistan, Afghanistan and India in the past week.
>
> Temperatures in Greece reached 46 C (114.80F) this week as part of a
> heatwave across parts of southern Europe. Parts of China have also had a
> heat wave in recent days.
>
> And torrential rains have battered northern England and parts of Texas,
> where Austin has had its wettest year on record so far.
>
> The U.N. climate panel, drawing on the work of 2,500 scientists, said this
> year that it was "very likely" that human activities led by use of fossil
> fuels were the main cause of a warming in the past half-century.
>
> It gave a "best estimate" that temperatures will rise 1.8-4.0 Celsius (3.2
> and 7.8 Fahrenheit) this century.
>
> Briceno told Reuters that the world had to work out better policies to
> prepare for disasters, saying that climate change was adding to already
> increasing risks faced by a rising human population of about 6.6 billion
> people.
>
> Irrespective of warming, many people were cramming into cities, for
> instance, settling in plains where there was already a risk of floods or
> moving to regions vulnerable to droughts.
>
> "We need to reduce all the underlying risk factors, such as by locating
> communities out of hazard-prone areas," he said. "We now have a clearer
> picture of what is going to happen and it's urgent that governments give
> this higher priority."
>
> In Germany, average temperatures for the 12 months to May 2007 smashed
> records for the past century, raising questions about whether climate change
> was quickening, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
>
> "If this trend continues in the near future, we will be experiencing an
> acceleration of global warming in Germany so far unexpected by climate
> scientists," it said in a statement.
> Copyright � 2007 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or
> redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior
> written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or
> delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
>
