s5tuart

My prediction?
Britain (England at least) will remain in the EU but will not convert currency to the euro. EVER!
Scotland may eventually do their own thing, and Wales may follow but that is not pertinent at the moment.
If I'm wrong, burn me at the stake....if I'm right, call me Nostradamus.

sir recorder

Yes, but it seems to all Brits that the Europeans are ganging up against Britain. This will really rile those on the fence, and may be push them into the anti-EU party. Do the other European nations really care?

But the question here is "What If UK Abandons The EU?" I.e. what will happen as far as Expats who have invested heavily in Portugal. Will the losses be great? What losses? What effects?

sir recorder

Why do you say that? It was only a few years ago UK seriously tried to join the Euro. The Pound Sterling is really an irrelevant currency on the world market.

EMR

The UK has never seriously tried to join the Euro, Blair did want us to but nothing happened.
We were in the good old days of Thatcher ( ha ha ) briefly in the European Monetary Union ( pre Euro days ) and that was an unmitigated disaster for the UK with a run on the £. It went from $2/£1 to around $1.10 at its worst.

s5tuart

I'm not sure that UK was ever truly serious about adopting the Euro, or it would have happened by now I feel. (I think the great unwashed had enough of a shock when decimalisation was introduced. If you listen to hearsay, prices tripled overnight so those of us that remember those times won't be easily swayed by the Euro.) UK is a strong enough player in the zone without the need to adopt the currency. All in my humble opinion.

bejaboz

Not really, it's never been a serious option as public opinion was strongly against it.

At the current time I think the euro is the more likely irrelevant currency rather than the pound.

EMR

The markets do not agree with you. The Euro has risen strongly against all major currencies, its E1.18/£1 a fall of almost 10 cents cents since the summer.
Portugal went to the markets today and sold all its bonds, the issue was infact over subscribed.

bejaboz

Markets rise and fall, just because the euro is strong against the pound at the moment. When it suits the financial institutions, things will change again.
The current climate across the Euro Zone is not one of long term stability. Spanish unemployment is still rising with the youth level at 55% and a bail out still a possibility. See what happens then.

Portugal might have sold its Bond issue, but not because they saw PT rising from the ashes and austerity, just that it was a good financial deal.

EMR

Portugals bonds still have a junk rating and even at 4.9% return they would not have sold if the markets expected more problems in the Eurozone.
4.9% is a much lower rate than they were having to offer when the Euro was under real pressure,
The £ has also fallen sharply against the dollar as the UK economic outlook is just as bad as many in the Eurozone.
Camerons speech whether he planned it or not by helping to weaken sterling could help UK manufacturing export. With the budget due in March Osborne has to find some good news from somewhere before then.

bejaboz

It's all a matter of opinions, and we have different ones.

I read the media comments the same as you and as a result, arrive at a conclusion. Whether it turns out right or wrong is, in the main, out of my hands.

Whatever the outcome, we sit on the sidelines unable to influence anything, just try and make the right personal judgements.

rici760

I quite honestly think nobody (and I mean nobody!!!) can predict the outcome...

whatever politicians / economists say there are just too many moving parts to make a valuable forecast.

In which case you can as well follow your gut feeling....

Garbatellamike

Not even close to true. Blair and Mandelson lobbied hard to create the impression UK would join the Euro (remeber Barosso's I have talked to the people who matter speech) to further their self interested ambitions in European Politics (other things like Gib being given to Spain where also floated) in a desparate attempt to garner support for President of Europe Blair (not something he has given up on methinks) and it was to Gormless Gordon's credit (not much else is) that he point blank refused to sell the country down the swanee for Teflon Tony's insatiable ambition.

PS the Euro is also an irrevelvant currency on the world market. Dollar yes, Yuan maybe, Euro and Sterling no longer!

sir recorder

There was once upon a time another time before Blair in which the UK tried seriously to join the Euro.

EMR

There was never any serious attempt to join the Euro, for numerous reasons
1) the UK financial state would never have met the necssary criteria
2) the UK electorate would not have stood for it
3) Gordon Brown was against it
4) Germany and France would needed a lot of convincing to vote for UK entry.

Garbatellamike

Rubbish