bons

I just heard on the radio that the UK Government is possibly going to bring back quarantine for Portugal as Covid numbers are rising higher than wanted. What a shame. Is this bloody virus going to do one soon so that we can all get back to some kind of normal?

Pulaski

It's been widely reported since March, but not so widely read and understood, that the timescale for a pandemic like this will be about 3 years, and the best case scenario is that an effective vaccine is developed, but by the time that such a vaccine has been tested and becomes widely available it won't cut more than about 12 months off the overall pandemic period. Short version, don't expect much to change before 2022, at the earliest.

bons

I have heard that a virus like this can run out of ptoency a bit, let's hope it does that at least.

Pulaski

That's what the "three years" is.

You can look on line for information about the 1918-1921 flu pandemic - the reports are bizarrely familiar - with recommendations for hand washing, mask wearing, and avoiding crowded places, events cancelled, then the protests, the deniers, and people refusing masks, there is very little that is new this year that didn't happen in 1918-1921. I have read some newspaper articles from the time that look like they could have been writted today.

bons

I'm not sure, but as it mutates, it weakens. I'm not a scientist but a scientist ssid that. I don't know if the three year thing was taken into consideration.

Pulaski

Yeah, the three years, which could be a bit less, but probably not much, is the sort of timescale over which the impact of the virus might lessen.

The problem in this case, which is less widely talked about, but is starting to get media attention, is that people who have had the disease and have "recovered" often, maybe as much as 60%-80% of the time, still have internal organs infected by the virus, including inflamed heart tissue. It is unknown at the moment what the long term, or even medium term, health implications are going to be for these lingering infections. Anyone who thinks that "90% of people only have mild symptoms and 99% of people recover" might yet have an ugly shock if the virus does long term damage to your heart, kidneys, liver, etc.

https://cardiovascularnews.com/frank...d-19-patients/

bons

I've been reading about people who are suffering long term effects. Lack of taste and smell is one of them. Not as bad as organ failure, but difficult to live with. One woman can't eat meat or drink coffee as they smell like cleaning fluids. I've heard of young people who months after, can't look after themselves any more. Fit men who used to run. One woman had to have a wheelchair after contractingn the virus and it could take months for her to get better, if ever. It is terrible. I don't understand why people say it's just like the 'flu, I've had the 'flu and recovered fully.

Pulaski

There is a reason why they are called "covidiots".

thegolfer

Can you explain why the death rate in many countries is now very minimal compared to infections?

Pulaski

Well first of all there are huge variations in the way that the deaths are even counted, with Russia being the prime example of doctors being reluctant to blame covid-19, so the death rate in Russia is a weird outlier to the death rates compared to most other countries' data.

Beyond that disclaimer, there are numerous factors in play. In no particular order, here are a few of them:

[1] early diagnosis and treatment
[2] availability of (nearby) hospitals and treatment
[3] the age of the typical victim, which may be a function of the age profile of the country (many Asian countries with rapidly growing populations have a low average age).
[4] the health and diet of the typical victim
[5] how and where people get infected - in the US, UK, and several European countries the disease spread rapidly though care homes for the elderly, where people already had health issues or were weak.
[6] the success of treatments available - the UK has had consisderable success in treating people seriously ill with the disease with a steroid drug, that has improved survival rates
[7] the numbers of people being tested and diagnosed - if many people with mild symptoms are diagnozed then the proportion of people who are seriously ill, hospitalized, and die, will be a lower percentage than if, in an extreme scenario, you only tested and counted those who were ill enough to be hospitalized.
[8] there may be different strains of the virus circulating in different parts of the world - it is certainly thought that that might be a reason why different countries are reporting different intection rates.

I am sure there are many other explanations, but those are a few of the reported reasons for variability in death rates. And I suspect that #7 is the most significant explanation to your question.

scot47

You cannot trust the statistics. Covidiots are using that simple fact as proof that there is no Covid !

Pulaski

Well, you need to understand them, but that requires more education, and perhaps more intelligence, than apparently most people have.
Sadly, that is true.

The covidiots are also using that science has changed its answers since the spring as proof that the whole thing is a fraud/ scam. But that is how science works - answers and explanations change as we learn more about any natural phenomenon, whether in astronomy, particle physics, paleontology, .... or epidemiology! So far this year we have learned a lot very quickly about covid-19, and so of course the answers have changed!

thegolfer

Regarding your point 7 I am referring to actual deaths not percentages, take the U.K for example week ending Aug 17th = 62 deaths.......week ending 24th Aug = 75 deaths ..........Many more people are dying from summer flu in the U.K and have been for the last 11 weeks. In fact there was only 1 death due to Covid yesterday in the U.K......It seems the graph is saying that Deaths are now very minimal compared to back at the peak in March April.....very similar pattern all over Europe....

Pulaski

[9] A lot of the weakest and most vulnerable were killed by the disease in the first wave.

liveaboard

I think everyone should ignore it and just get back to work.
go on holiday, eat out, buy useless things you don't need, and do all those things that seem to be required for our economy to function these days.

Meanwhile, me + mine will stay locked down at home.

See you in 2 1/2 years, or whenever.
Best of luck.