mfesharne

Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport holders.

Loafing Along

The UK will leave the European Union (EU) on 31 October, whatever the circumstances.

Whatever happened to the Benn Act ?

liveaboard

Boris has stated he tends to flout it; I guess all he has to do is ask for an extension at the last moment.
Or send the document by GLS [anytime, confident it won't get delivered].

Diddion

BritInParis

He’s stated he will obey the law and we are leaving on 31 October come what may. He may have a clever legal trick up his sleeve or he just be bluffing.

Red Eric

Any agreement between the EU and the PM has to have the consent of the Commons before the body-in-ditch scenario is dead.

captainflack

The supreme court slapped down his prorogation wheeze 11-0. I very much doubt that any legal trick would go down well, especially since the UK government already told a Scottish court that there was no need for an injunction to force the PM to comply with the Benn act, because the deadline had not passed, and the PM would of course comply with the law. If there is one thing courts really don't like, it's being lied to or misled.

As for bluffing, last year Boris Johnson stood in front of the DUP conference and told them that a customs border down the Irish sea was out of the question, that he'd stand by the union blah blah blah. And he pledged repeatedly 'no more concessions' and that the EU need to move, and instead he capitulates and his new deal does basically the same as the original EU offer, puts a customs border in the Irish sea.

The interesting thing is that even if there is a delay and Boris wins an election and gets a huge majority, he's basically going to just pass his deal. So the EU get paid their 39 billion that the brexitters were always threatening to withold, they avoid a border in Ireland, so the Irish economy should be less badly affected. And then the UK will need to start negotating a free trade deal with the EU.

So in a year or so, we'd have exactly the same situation we have now. The UK (excluding NI) is going to be faced with a cliff edge, where the transitional arrangements end, and it's essentially going to be the threat of 'no deal' again, customs checks on all UK trade, manufacturers facing supply chain disruption, etc. And it's clear now that Boris is a bluffer, and the EU rumbled him this time. They'll hang him out to dry, and they'd be more willing to contemplate 'no deal' since they already got paid their money and the Irish border is no longer a problem for the Irish to worry about.

Boris basically capitulated and gave away both his most important bargainging chips. He'll be screwed negotiating a free trade deal with the EU, because he has nothing left to threaten with, and has already revealed that he'd do anything, including crossing out red lines, to avoid 'no deal'.

The EU has played a blinder. Of course, they had a cracking hand to start with, and the UK got dealt a dud. But they've played it very poorly. They could have folded 3 years ago, and avoided the catastrophic loss of business investment that the UK will never get back.

liveaboard

Now you've gone and given it away!

AlgarveAndy

In the event of a deal being passed by UK Parliament will the EU get their 39 billion straight away or in staged payments ?, is it tied to the last EU budget round that has just recently been re forecast.

New member just become resident and relocated to Algarve this week :-)

EU.flag

What a odd question to ask. Do you also care to know if EU will be paid in £50 or €50 notes?

Diddion

chislenko

If the 39 billion doesn't come quickly a lot of road building in Portugal will come to a halt.

This road

Total cost 4 billion

EU Contribution 3.9 billion

On every road resurfacing the sign tells the story.

Without UK funding how long can Germany keep the EU going, you never hear of the Greece crisis anymore, no because Germany has bought most of it's infrastructure, but Germany is sliding into recession, could be why Mrs Merkel doesn't want to lose GB.

AlgarveAndy

Sorry I think you have taken the wrong impression from my comment, I was merely trying to say if the UK does have to pay up in full then that may be a reason Boris is not really wanting a deal. For the record I am fully in favour of the UK paying up everything owed be it for past present or future commitments.

EU.flag

Hang on a minute. Are you claiming that UK funding is keeping EU alive and without it will go bust ??!! What a load of tosh.
UK contributes in avg £14bil to EU budget (Office of National Statistics, UK), which is €165.8bil for year 2019.

EU will be impacted by leave, as way of budget reduction and trade deficit, but future EU budgets will just adjust for that.
No country would like to lose good financial partner, but having one that is half-in half-out was never a good idea.
EU will just move on and, keep calm and carry on.

EU.flag

No problem at all. I just found it odd that someone would care how those high levels wheels work. Boris is simply carrier opportunist taking advantage of opportunity that presented itself. It's not like he'll be paying that money from his own pocket, he couldn't care less if it was 39 or 390 billions.