Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport holder
#1
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2013
Location: central Portugal
Posts: 4,111
Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport holder
Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport holders.
#3
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
Boris has stated he tends to flout it; I guess all he has to do is ask for an extension at the last moment.
Or send the document by GLS [anytime, confident it won't get delivered].
Or send the document by GLS [anytime, confident it won't get delivered].
#4
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2016
Location: Alvaiázere, central Portugal
Posts: 591
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
#5
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
He’s stated he will obey the law and we are leaving on 31 October come what may. He may have a clever legal trick up his sleeve or he just be bluffing.
#6
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
#7
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
As for bluffing, last year Boris Johnson stood in front of the DUP conference and told them that a customs border down the Irish sea was out of the question, that he'd stand by the union blah blah blah. And he pledged repeatedly 'no more concessions' and that the EU need to move, and instead he capitulates and his new deal does basically the same as the original EU offer, puts a customs border in the Irish sea.
The interesting thing is that even if there is a delay and Boris wins an election and gets a huge majority, he's basically going to just pass his deal. So the EU get paid their 39 billion that the brexitters were always threatening to withold, they avoid a border in Ireland, so the Irish economy should be less badly affected. And then the UK will need to start negotating a free trade deal with the EU.
So in a year or so, we'd have exactly the same situation we have now. The UK (excluding NI) is going to be faced with a cliff edge, where the transitional arrangements end, and it's essentially going to be the threat of 'no deal' again, customs checks on all UK trade, manufacturers facing supply chain disruption, etc. And it's clear now that Boris is a bluffer, and the EU rumbled him this time. They'll hang him out to dry, and they'd be more willing to contemplate 'no deal' since they already got paid their money and the Irish border is no longer a problem for the Irish to worry about.
Boris basically capitulated and gave away both his most important bargainging chips. He'll be screwed negotiating a free trade deal with the EU, because he has nothing left to threaten with, and has already revealed that he'd do anything, including crossing out red lines, to avoid 'no deal'.
The EU has played a blinder. Of course, they had a cracking hand to start with, and the UK got dealt a dud. But they've played it very poorly. They could have folded 3 years ago, and avoided the catastrophic loss of business investment that the UK will never get back.
#9
Forum Regular
Joined: Oct 2019
Location: Porches, Algarve
Posts: 75
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
In the event of a deal being passed by UK Parliament will the EU get their 39 billion straight away or in staged payments ?, is it tied to the last EU budget round that has just recently been re forecast.
New member just become resident and relocated to Algarve this week :-)
New member just become resident and relocated to Algarve this week :-)
#10
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
In the event of a deal being passed by UK Parliament will the EU get their 39 billion straight away or in staged payments ?, is it tied to the last EU budget round that has just recently been re forecast.
New member just become resident and relocated to Algarve this week :-)
New member just become resident and relocated to Algarve this week :-)
#11
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2016
Location: Alvaiázere, central Portugal
Posts: 591
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
The question of ‘when’ is actually quite an interesting one. I think that the bill will be payable mainly in the first year or two, and then in decreasing amounts until about 2060. This is largely due to ongoing pension commitments.
It could be possible to do what is known as to discount the future commitments to a current figure (ie, what you would need to pay now to meet a future commitment, taking into account anticipated investment growth on the one hand, and actual future value after inflation on the other). Especially over a long timescale such a calculation is highly speculative, and I am not aware of it having been adopted here.
#12
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 657
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
If the 39 billion doesn't come quickly a lot of road building in Portugal will come to a halt.
This road
Total cost 4 billion
EU Contribution 3.9 billion
On every road resurfacing the sign tells the story.
Without UK funding how long can Germany keep the EU going, you never hear of the Greece crisis anymore, no because Germany has bought most of it's infrastructure, but Germany is sliding into recession, could be why Mrs Merkel doesn't want to lose GB.
This road
Total cost 4 billion
EU Contribution 3.9 billion
On every road resurfacing the sign tells the story.
Without UK funding how long can Germany keep the EU going, you never hear of the Greece crisis anymore, no because Germany has bought most of it's infrastructure, but Germany is sliding into recession, could be why Mrs Merkel doesn't want to lose GB.
Last edited by chislenko; Oct 28th 2019 at 11:52 pm.
#13
Forum Regular
Joined: Oct 2019
Location: Porches, Algarve
Posts: 75
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
Sorry I think you have taken the wrong impression from my comment, I was merely trying to say if the UK does have to pay up in full then that may be a reason Boris is not really wanting a deal. For the record I am fully in favour of the UK paying up everything owed be it for past present or future commitments.
#14
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
If the 39 billion doesn't come quickly a lot of road building in Portugal will come to a halt.
This road
Total cost 4 billion
EU Contribution 3.9 billion
On every road resurfacing the sign tells the story.
Without UK funding how long can Germany keep the EU going, you never hear of the Greece crisis anymore, no because Germany has bought most of it's infrastructure, but Germany is sliding into recession, could be why Mrs Merkel doesn't want to lose GB.
This road
Total cost 4 billion
EU Contribution 3.9 billion
On every road resurfacing the sign tells the story.
Without UK funding how long can Germany keep the EU going, you never hear of the Greece crisis anymore, no because Germany has bought most of it's infrastructure, but Germany is sliding into recession, could be why Mrs Merkel doesn't want to lose GB.
UK contributes in avg £14bil to EU budget (Office of National Statistics, UK), which is €165.8bil for year 2019.
EU will be impacted by leave, as way of budget reduction and trade deficit, but future EU budgets will just adjust for that.
No country would like to lose good financial partner, but having one that is half-in half-out was never a good idea.
EU will just move on and, keep calm and carry on.
Last edited by EU.flag; Oct 29th 2019 at 5:11 pm.
#15
Re: Latest Brexit advice from the UK Embassy. A must read for all UK passport ho
Sorry I think you have taken the wrong impression from my comment, I was merely trying to say if the UK does have to pay up in full then that may be a reason Boris is not really wanting a deal. For the record I am fully in favour of the UK paying up everything owed be it for past present or future commitments.