fergus

When this pandemic started the Portuguese people I know dismissed the government's figures on cases, saying they were massively under reporting what was happening. They said they were not publishing the true number and that infection and death rate was much higher than the government were saying. That was back in March. Does anyone have any thoughts on this? I see that the total deaths in Portugal is thankfully very low compared to UK, but I do wonder (because of what Portuguese friends said) whether they are true. What do you guys think?

stormwatcher

Unsure if I'm contributing anything here but if you check the numbers, you'll see Belgium very high in the list regarding number of deaths.
That is because Belgium is one of the only countries that also reports deaths from elderly homes, even if they are suspected (so not-confirmed). Roughly half of our corona-deaths happen in elderly homes.

I have seen numbers from Catalunya (Spain) and the UK from elderly homes (they are still not adding those to the global numbers), and they are more or less in line with the numbers coming out of Belgium (doubling, or tripling of numbers)

Pulaski

Everything I have seen about the data being collected in some countries, would suggest that every country has it's own way of collecting data on infections, deaths, and recoveries, not to mention their own policy on who/ how many to test - so the per capita data varies wildly, and in some cases more infections is more to do with how many people are being tested than a relative measure of how many people are infected compared to other countries.

Eventually New York decided that the best measure of deaths was "the number of total deaths for any reason, less the average number of deaths for the same time/ month in recent years", which makes some sense, but it led to a jump in the total deaths, and more deaths reported daily. I hear that Germany for example only counts deaths of people who were diagnosed as infected before they died ..... they also seem to have the most aggressive testing regime of any country I know of, so they have more tests per capita. Until a few days ago, the UK ws excluding deaths in care homes, for who knows what reason!?!?! Was it because they were decrepit old farts who were going to die soon anyway?

Short version: At the moment I don't trust any country's coronavirus data as being "accurate" and it will probably take years of analyzing and investigating the data to work out, on a level playing field, what the "real" numbers were for each country.

macliam

The UK now includes the number of deaths confirmed from COVID-19 from care homes, hence the big jump this week. However, the issue here is that testing in care homes has been limited.

As has been said, every country includes and excludes different things in the figures..... but every country will see a change in the overall death rates during the thim of the virus, once those figures are available. Portugal seems to have done pretty well on its reporting - it is one of the few places to report cases per municipality.... that would make the checking far easier.

In the UK, I know how many have been affected in my county.... but not where in my county (there appears to be a cluster far away from me). What is amazing is the variation between reporting authorities..... again in the UK, Brent (North London) has deaths of 400 in every 100k, but Dorset has only 80. When lockdown is released, the equalization will mean a big jump in numbers again.

Red Eric

I've been very impressed with the way we've been kept informed here, right from the start.

The addresses from the President and the PM have been measured and factual, with the emphasis on preparation for what was to come and what was expected of us and with assurances that the authorities would be honest and candid with us about developments. Neither they nor anybody else has ever strayed into making rash pledges or optimistic forecasts - it's all been focussed on the reality and the fact that we will be conditioned by the presence of the virus until such time as there are effective treatments and vaccines, and that those are not a given.

Yes, there are reasons to treat the figures regarding numbers of infections with caution - as everywhere, it all depends on the numbers being tested, although Portugal is very high on the list when ranked by tests per million of population.

I have absolutely no doubt that the figures for mortalities is as accurate as possible, though - the idea that the PT government might be deliberately manipulating the reporting strikes me as absurd, although it doesn't altogether surprise me that it might be credible to some people. I've heard some pretty odd stuff locally. However, there is a daily press conference at which the 3 head honchos of public health are present, addressing the nation and taking a great deal of time and trouble to give detailed responses to questions from journalists. Never dismissive or exasperated, even if questions are asked which have been covered in previous conferences - just patient and comprehensive answers. And the matter of statistics has been visited on more than one occasion. All of the press conferences are available to view on the Covid-19 section of DGS website.

There was something published a few days ago about deviation from the norm when taking an average of deaths for the time of year and comparing the current total once the reported Covid-19 related deaths have been subtracted - Portugal scores very well on that (best in Europe barring Denmark, apparently). I really don't think they would see anything to be gained from trying to pull the wool over our eyes about this - the risk of exposure and the fallout from it would be far too great here. There has been no significant criticism over their handling of the crisis either from opposition political parties or from the media - I think most people would accept that they have done a good job in very difficult circumstances, especially when looking at the way it has been handled in some other countries which had the same time as Portugal to tailor their approaches in response to developments in Italy and Spain and seemingly failed to do so with the necessary speed. That is what has almost certainly made all the difference, in my opinion.

barlaventoexpert

I agree totally with Red Eric.

The fact that at practically all daily press briefings in Portugal the Minister of Health or her Deputy (Political) AND the Director General of Ministry of Health (Civil Service) have been present and provide good technical briefings has been impressive. They have been up-front on days where figures were found to be inaccurate and have adjusted them accordingly. The PM, Antonio Costa, supported by Marcelo, from the beginning was frank and honest about what had to be done, including closing the frontier with Spain and getting PPE supplies & ventilators ordered asap.

Portuguese epidemicologists were tracking what was going on outside Portugal very early and this allowed th Government to act reasonable swiftly,

Furthermore, at a local level, the Civil Defence systems worked well. In the Torres Vedras area, three sports pavilions were kitted out as emergency wards within 2-3 days.

The Catholic Church and the Football Federation also acted responsibly, moving to close down all events & services days before the State of Emergency was initiated. Many Portuguese themselves moved rapidly to social distancing, wearing masks and washing/sanitising hands. Self-Discipline seems generally to be holding and this has helped immeasurably.

As regards, overall statistics, none can be absolutely accurate. However, I have a much greater level of confidence in the statistics issued daily in Portugal, than I do in those issued for England & Wales. These can be found here -

https://covid19.min-saude.pt/relatorio-de-situacao/

Finally, it's worthing noting that the current line-up at the Ministry of Health is....

Marta Temido - PHD in International Health
https://www.portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc22/...saude/ministro

Antonio Sales - Orthopaedic Specialist
https://www.portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc22/...estado?i=saude

Graça Freitas - Doctor
https://www.dgs.pt/subdirectores-ger...a-freitas.aspx

All experienced medical specialists and all capable of competently handling daily briefings.

macliam

I'm pleased to hear about the confrerences, etc. - I really dislike the political circus in the UK - I trust neither the politicians, the civil servants nor the "scientific experts", particularly after the Chief Scientific Officer's early suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 for the UK would be a "good outcome" (Currently 27,000 and rising, even on the partial figures admitted by the UK government).

Last night on the Late, Late Show on RTÉ (available on RTÉplayer on Android), an Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, spent a good half hour laying out the plans for Ireland's lifting of lockdown measures. Again, i was impressed by the lack of spin and bluster - just an admission that it was a roadmap and that phases and dates might change according to circumstances. There again, Varadkar is a qualified doctor and was a GP before becoming a politician.......

barlaventoexpert

...and Varadkar is also doing a day a week as a locum GP while still being Taoiseach,

fergus

Okay. I too have been impressed with the Portuguese Government and also the people. They have, in the main, conformed to the lock down rules. I don't suppose anyone will ever know the true figures for any country but the wide disparity from country to country is odd. From looking at the information available comparing UK to Portugal it seems that UK have 4 times more deaths than Portugal. Data is below. I am a little puzzled why the reported cases is greatest in the north. I would have expected it to be greatest around Lisbon as there will be more people there. Maybe the weather has an effect?
So latest figures are Portugal has 1007 deaths and the UK has 27500. The UK has population of 66m versus portugal 10m which translate to deaths per million of, UK 0.00042 and portugal 0.0001. The UK has 4 times more deaths Portugal.
Portugal has 25,351 positive tests from 277,500 tests done, which is 9% positive result. Whereas the UK has 177,454 positive from 762,300 tests done which is 23%. The number of tests completed as a percentage of population sees Portugal having tested 2.5 times more than UK. Well done Portugal.
The number of reported cases is greatest in north and reduces as you go further south.

barlaventoexpert

It is interesting especially given the fact that the population of Portugal is ageing fast.

The reason for the North bulge is simple. It is a much more highly densely populated area than even down here in Greater Lisbon.
Much of the nation's industry is in the region running North from Aveiro, through Sta. Maria da Feira, Greater Porto and up to Viana do Castelo. Furthermore, the Greater Urban Catchment Area of Porto extends & includes Braga & Guimarães as well as extending along the Douro towards Amarante & Paredes.
Agriculture is also very much more intensive up there.

Many Portuguese emigrantes who work & live in the Ile de France Region, Luxembourg and Switzerland also come from the North and there is frequent movement between these regions... (until recently, of course!)

dingg

UK locked down much later than Portugal, London is a massive transfer city potential with Lisbon and Porto much smaller volume of travellers.

All makes a huge difference on the potential and pool of viral traffic.

Re relaxation of lock down I'd have thought it wise to relax more slowly on the hot spots to try to keep a lid on things, but I don't think the governments will be able to without public outrage, especially in Britain where they appear to have not treated the situation with the same seriousness that the Portuguese have.

We'll done Portugal

macliam

I ignored that a bit, as it's unlikely he's actually working "frontline" because it would take some time for him to come back up to speed.... but he did suggest he might be useful in more indirect roles. I don't think he volunteered just for show.... but it's just a fact thet he has been away from the job for too long now for him to safely step back in to a frontline post.

macliam

I've been told friends in the area that there was an international footwear exhibition visited by Chinese manufacturers and four members of one family from Ovar were infected and passed it on in early March, before the virus hit the headlines.

wellinever

Yes it all looks as if Portugal has faired pretty well on all counts so far.
I returned to UK, and I find it sad and disturbing that the UK appears to have made all the wrong decisions at the wrong time so far.
For anyne interested there is now a map showing deaths by Post Code in the UK. It is in most newspapers websites I just chose Daily Mail.
Find it here:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ures-show.html

liveaboard

When you compare the covid death rates in just about any country to the normal background death rates from all causes, the numbers are very low.
Then we're told the hospitals are overrun and bodies are stacked in freezer trucks.
So something is wrong..