mikemike

I think there is every reason for a rise as $us is going to slide, so this may see an increase against php as well, this without Brexit

I am looking at gbp being an outperformer in 2021, upwards that is

mikek1

It all depends on whether a trade deal is accomplished. If a trade agreement is reached ( or a botched deal) with the EU my bet is the £ will appreciate rapidly. The £ is rising at the moment on the strength of a vaccine becoming available soon, and the weakness of the US$.
Whilst on the subject of exchange rates yesterday we had to send a large amount of US$ to China. Our local bank gave us 48.22 Php / US$ which was basically the mid range rate on the international exchange rate. The fee for sending US$ was US$ 45. An unbelievable rate, if we used a UK bank we would have got a much more inferior rate and still got charged for sending it.
We use XE currency company to send money to the Philippines from the UK. They don’t charge for sending it and their rate is much better than the UK banks, but there is no way they could match what we received from the EastWest bank Philippines.

SushiFan

Are you interested in GBP/EUR or GBP/USD (or maybe GBP/PHP)?

Gazza-d

I think with the change of administration the dollar will strengthen, the dow has already reached a record height. A strong dollar is never good for the pound.

Stokkevn

GBP to PHP

Raffin

The BBC saying a UK/EU trade deal is close. The market seems to have been expecting a deal for some weeks with the pound rising so maybe no big further appreciation, but a No Deal would have surely meant a large fall.

Andrew_AJP

It depends if you want something sourced from outside UK seen another post from somewhere else where shipping for a pair of gloves is now £36 up from £11 previously
Tescos recently said they would not be putting up prices post brexit which is rich considering that 10kg bag of rice recently went from £11 to £14.50 morrisons used to sell small packs of ham at a quid they are now £1.50

Philosophical 11

Watching with dismay the fall of the GBP which over the past 3 months has fallen by 5 PHP, the biggest drop in the last few weeks. The USD has held up well and indeed has just reached its highest level for some considerable time.

This indicates that it's not the PHP that's strong but the GBP is weakening. It may be that the Philippines trade deficit may well reverse the decline in the near future but I wonder what is causing the decline of the GBP. Another big drop yesterday could have been due to the poor local election results. Bumpy road ahead maybe?

Raffin

Consensus seems to be inflation, about 7% pa now and forecast 10% end of year. Interest rates up to highest in 13 years to attempt to control inflation. Expectations of further interest rate rises coming.. The Ukraine effect on commodity prices and Britain so dependent on imports So growth forecasts down. Growth to go down further if more sanctions hit EU energy imports and therefore UK exports to EU.

No UK election for a while but one here. Does the likely winner have any surprising economic policies? We have no idea! Though the Philippines much less affected by the war in Ukraine. In fact it could benefit as China thinks again about invading Taiwan.

Bealinehx

It's deja vu the 1970's again!

mikemike

If the son of wins the eelction, he may well do. I would not be surprised to see a form of international no confidence being registered in the Phils economy. this may see the pesos lose value against a larger basket of currencies and this includes the UK.

Nothing stays the same

Raffin

Not so sure. The martial law period was effectively 1972-86. Culminating in EDSA. The youngest who could remember that getting into their 60s now and only those into their 70s the martial law years. Then how much do they know abroad? The Philippines was rarely covered in the main news. Disasters, Imelda's shoes and EDSA.
Here some will vote for him regardless of what they know as Filipinos are big on forgiveness. Others obviously don't know much. One article I saw described the school textbooks approach to martial law as overall "cursory".

mikemike

International/local markets hate uncertainty. I suspect this will be the key driver


As for local thoughts on marcos era being something to be feared...................only time will tell

The international political and business community will be watching carefully, no matter who gets voted in

Stokkevn

Hopefully it will quickly roll forward 30 years to the early Arroyo period when it was 106 to the pound.

Raffin

Unfortunately doing the reverse. P65 today. The Ph Peso doing badly too, but more due to US events than domestic ones. Whereas the Pound is being hit both externally and through worried perceptions of the effect of its abrupt change in economic policy .One generally seen as risky by the markets.