NCR llockdown

Old Feb 22nd 2021, 11:50 pm
  #676  
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The highest new cases since November 8 at 2,288 and 6 labs did not report. However the latest tests showed only 16.6k people tested and the positives included a backlog of over1,000 results. Positivity at 6.6% and only 17.4k results are in preparation.

Deaths at 6 with 2 of them RDs.
On the issue of RDs:


Tweet from ABS-CBN

About the large Feb 20 death announcement. I thought that most of these RDs were from many weeks back as they were last year, but now it seems they are nearly all recent, maybe as the DOH are looking hard for them. But still no indication as to why they are wrongly tagged as recoveries.

The ABS-CBN data unit also updated their DOH statistics on the share of deaths in hospital. Now only 38%. Back in October they published this chart, which showed over 40% were in hospital. It also showed just over 20% in a critical condition were admitted to hospital. Likely to get worse as the provincial cases increase.



For the minority in hospitals now the DOH announced severe at 741, critical 769....up 6 and down 18 respectively.

Details for Feb 21:


Bicol 21









Banate IloIlo

Just under a third of cases from the NCR, 11 of its cities in the top 20. Pasay with another large daily total of 97, third highest nationally.
W Visayas was the next highest contributor at 21.4% of national cases, again the great majority from Cebu province and over 44% of those from Cebu City. Three other Cebu cities were in the top 20.
Calabarzon at 8.5%, making the total contribution with the NCR to over 40% of national cases.

Cebu has been given until Friday by the central government to show they can control the outbreak. If not and it seems unlikely, maybe an enhanced quarantine and the generals to be sent in again. The Cebu governor is of course not happy with that prospect and is pushing back, even making it easier for tourists to visit the island. A game changer could be some result about the widespread presence or not of a virus mutation involving elements of the UK and SA variants. But that is coming from the WHO and will take some time.


Cebu province exponential growth...

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/22/...erte-spokesman

This was the official position earlier yesterday but then a few hours later:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...says-go/story/

The numbers were already getting worse a week ago! The latest position of no relaxation unless the vaccines are rolled out means what? Vaccine program just under way? Or at a certain stage? We know that the benefits from vaccines in terms of cutting virus transmission will take many weeks to even start showing. Notice also that face to face schooling is also mentioned as off, though whether trials in certain areas will be allowed not mentioned by the President.

As mentioned yesterday front line health workers and seniors are not to get Sinovac's vaccine, but economic front liners and some military will:

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/139888...-sinovac-shots

The government desperately trying to make up vaccine supplies from Sinopharm ( a state owned company from China)..... and Russia (Sputnik V):

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...vid-19-vaccine

Trouble is they are late and the Russians have a large population themselves to vaccinate to control a bad outbreak and are exporting it to countries which they want to influence in their battle against the West. So there will likely be a quid pro quo for the Ph to offer in exchange.

The national chart:






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Old Feb 24th 2021, 1:42 am
  #677  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The DOH announced a further 1,414 cases yesterday. The backlog was about 150 results out of 20k tested. Positivity at 6.2%. Eight labs did not report. That may be significant. Tests on the way low at 17k.
Deaths at 16 with 3 of them RDs. Case fatality up to 2.14% (Spain near at 2.15%).
Severe patients up 4 to 745, critical up 6 to 775.

Today a change in that we first note the location details of yesterday's cases:












So for yesterday's cases W Visayas made up 29.2% of the national total, followed by the NCR at 25.5% and region 4A at 11.9%. So the NCR plus 4A made up 37.4%.
Seven NCR cities in the top 20, lower than usual. Pasay still high with 52 cases.
For W Visayas again the great majority were from Cebu province and most, 60%, of those announced were in Cebu City. Four other Cebu cities were again in the top 20.


Now, a brief breakdown of the far greater number of 2,288 cases that were announced on Feb 22:

The highest regions were NCR 707, C Visayas 483, 4A 222, E Visayas 130, Central Luzon 122, Davao 109, CAR 108
These 7 regions together made up more than 82% of the cases.
NCR 30.9%, Central Visayas 21.1% and 4A 9.7%. So NCR plus 4A a high 40.6% of the national total.

As usual Manila was highest in the NCR at 115, closely followed by QC at 112 and then Pasay still high at 95 and Malabon at 86.
A high 12 NCR cities were in the top 20 cities.

Provincially, again Cebu province contributed 86% of the region's number. Cebu City made up just under 60% of the island's cases and four other of its cities were in the top 20.
Leyte province came second with a much smaller 114 cases.

We need to be somewhat cautious with the testing data from some regions as the test labs are often a long way from the sample location, but this is the latest picture on testing nationally:


Regions with over 5% positivity make up over 40% of the total population.
Nearly all are in the Visayas and Mindanao




Updates on the vaccine situation here:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...k?ocid=BingHPC

As reported yesterday here the Sinovac vaccine now not for the front line health workers and seniors. So who will get it? Whether it is as poor on effectivity as some of the data suggests it will be a difficult sell to those who have the choice. I suspect it will eventually be delivered to those who won't have a choice and won't know what vaccine they are getting. When it arrives. The first 600k doses were supposed to arrive yesterday. No surprise that of those the Chinese company has donated 100k to the DND (Dept of National Defense)

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ty-fund/story/
Good news as the vaccines are late in coming.


An excerpt from a recent GMA medical science report which may explain the UK variant's greater transmission potential.


https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...ritain-germany

This leaves a sour taste for me though another example of the crude attitude the Philippines takes these days to dealing with Western governments and international organizations.

Last, Dr John on the German DW TV talking about the UK plan to gradually release lockdown there:


On his update Monday.




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Old Feb 24th 2021, 11:18 pm
  #678  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a higher 1,557 new cases, nothing said about the labs. Tests were only 23.2k with positivity a higher 7.5%. Only 23.7k tests coming along.
Deaths at 22, 11 of them RDs with severe 743 and critical 774, basically unchanged.

Location detail for yesterday:


Other Mindanao 17









NCR gave 30.4% of the national total, 4A 8.4%. The two together 38.8%. The NCR had 12 cities in the top 20. Pasay again high at 60, third highest city nationally.
Central Visayas contributed 27.1%, and continuing the trend nearly all were from Cebu. More than half of those were from Cebu City. LapuLapu, Mandaue and Talisay Cities brought the total to 331, or 80% of the island's total.
The dominance of large cities, capitals in the top 20 urban areas was noticeable yesterday.

Vaccine news:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

The country's leader challenging the qualified medical specialists at the Philippine FDA, in public. Expect more of that.

OCTA polling through 1,200 face to face interviews on willingness to take a covid vaccine. Accuracy +/- 3%.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/25/...ovid-19-survey

Only a fifth for vaccination and the main reason safety. Lack of effectiveness the other main reason mentioned. More were wary in the lower socio-economic classes. Chinese vaccines the least trusted.
Worrying figures for the government.
I would have liked to see a question about people's willingness to take any vaccines. There are always some.
Btw "Balance Luzon" means Luzon outside Manila. I had to look it up!

Last, a look at Indonesia's progress:


New cases seemed to have peaked at the end of January, but a downward trend not fully established. The last two days had 7.5k, 9.8k and 10.2k new cases, going back.


Deaths seem to be on a firmer downward trend. Last three day's figures 240,323 and 202.

Indonesia has started vaccination with a Chinese vaccine. So far about 2m doses administered to a population of over 270m.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-tracker.html







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Old Feb 26th 2021, 12:06 am
  #679  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday announced a higher total of 2,269. Tests were up at 27.4k, positivity 6.1%. A backlog of about 600 results added. Tests in preparation up at 35.5k.
Deaths 72, 12 of them RDs.
Case fatality rate up again to 2.15%.
Severe up 3 to 746, critical down 5 to 779.

Detail of location for yesterday's cases:


Other Mindanao 31







New entry Minglanilla in Cebu.

NCR with almost 40% of national cases and 12 cities in the top 20. Case explosion in Pasay City at 151 to top the NCR and national table for the first time.
Next highest was Central Visayas with just under 20%.
NCR together with 4A made up nearly half the national cases at 48.8%.
As usual Cebu province at 430 with nearly all the regional cases and Cebu City with just over half of them.
Four other Cebu urban areas in the top 20.

Going back now for locational detail on the lesser number (1,557) of Feb 24 cases:


Other Mindanao 17




NCR with 30.4%, 4A with 8.4%. So the two areas 39.8% of national total.
Pasay at 4th place with 60 cases behind the usual leaders QC, Manila and Makati.
NCR again with with 12 out of the top 20 urban areas.
Central Visayas with over 27%. Cebu province with 410 cases, the great majority of the regional total. Cebu City with nearly half of the island's cases.
Three other Cebu cities in the top 20 urban areas.
CAR also a region with over 100 cases and 6.6% of the national total.

The NCR:


NCR gradual recent increase..

An update from OCTA research group says Pasay nearly doubled its cases last week compared to the previous one. Its attack rate (compared to the population) at over 12 per 100k. In the nation that is only exceeded by Cebu City and Tabuk, the capital city of Kalinga.
But other cities in the NCR are also of concern. Malabon, Paranaque, Manila, Taguig and Marilina all have recently seen their cases increase by over 40% week on week.
Positivity in Paranaque at 11% and in Marikina 12%.
Makati also high at 7%, Pasig at 9%. The NCR positivity is around 5%.
Cities doing well overall include Mandaluyong, Muntinlupa, Valenzuala and Pasig with its low attack rate and hospital occupancy.

But the NCR Reproduction estimate is rising:




Cebu City chart:



Possibly the peak has been reached.
Buti its attack rate and positivity rate is still high, though hospital occupancy is only at 53%. Lower than in LapuLapu City and much lower than in Makati City where it is at 72%.




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Old Feb 26th 2021, 2:24 am
  #680  
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We have a number of interesting political events that have taken place during this week.
No relaxation of quarantine measure until vaccines are available. A good positive statement by the President. Who is also extolling the virtues of the Sinovax which seemingly is only 50% effective.
The Governor of Cebu Province ( a SARS 2 hotspot) had hoped for a relaxation of quarantine controls to assist the tourist industry, so much for responsible leadership.

Well let us see how events unfold in the coming weeks. As a 73 year old foreigner I do not expect anything until 2022, despite the fact that HMG is vaccinating all an sundry. So much for reciprocity. I hope I am proved wrong.
I see that Queen Betty is telling all in her realm not to be selfish and jab up.

Happy weekend one and all.
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Old Feb 26th 2021, 3:09 am
  #681  
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"Remaining Seniors not categorized as indigent and as determined by the DSWD." This was the priority list for vaccination before the Sinovac issue. A new one being prepared. Maybe some Expat seniors are registered by the DSWD in some places but generally I suspect we're below the radar. Many won't bother. We won't as we live in a very low risk environment but if still in Paranaque I think we would have tried to get them if offered by the City. It will be interesting to look out for reports of wives of Expats being refused, as has been reported in relation to other benefits by some Expats.

A strong message from HRH. Especially as messages from her are rare. Here the King talks a lot and has difficult choices coming up next week on taking the first generally available Sinovac shots. In public or not? Not recommended by his FDA for Seniors, but they are the first arrivals here. Or wait for the Sinopharm, which his guards already had in secret. He has previously said Filipinos can't pick and choose.
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Old Feb 26th 2021, 9:08 am
  #682  
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The UK has 400+million doses on order of which we need something like 130 million, the remainder will be donated.
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Old Feb 26th 2021, 10:49 pm
  #683  
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Yesterday the highest total of new cases, 2,651, since Oct 17 (2,673) announced. Eight labs did not report. Included a nearly 600 results backlog. Positivity at the highest level since October at 7.2%. Tests in preparation at a higher 36.4k.
Deaths at 46 with 20 RDs.
Severe down 21, critical up 15 to 725 and 794 resp.
Case fatality back to 2.14%,

Some locational detail:

NCR 932, C Visayas 500, Calabarzon 185, C Luzon 154, Davao 133, W Visayas 110

Within the NCR Pasay led at 194 cases, QC 174, Manila 118
So NCR had 35.2% and 4A 7% of national cases. Total 42.2%.
Pasay with 43 more cases than yesterday at 194.

Again Cebu province had nearly all the regional cases and of those Cebu City had 52%.

The latest DOH graphics:


National


NCR


Cebu province

Some improvement in Cebu, whether enough to save it from more restrictions imposed by Manila, we shall see.
Otherwise a deteriorating picture all round. But there were signs a month ago of a gradual increase and cases are now rising at a faster rate, with a few new hotspots emerging. Davao and maybe Cebu are improving but the Philippines is bucking the current international trend of falling cases, with the first bulk vaccine deliveries weeks away. We've yet to hear definitively about the variants.

But for us British Expats UK data still shows much higher levels of the virus there now. You can monitor the situation in the UK on the BBC site, link below.

My home town is currently showing an attack rate of 107 per 100k population. Not good but the worst area in the region is at 202. Most areas in my region near London are under 100. Some London Boroughs are over 100. Some in the West Country under 10. The latest attack rate for MM as a whole is also under 10, although Pasay now is 20-30 per 100k. All the UK numbers should fall soon due to the vaccination roll out.

Still, allowing for more under reporting and delayed statistics it's not too bad here.... for now,. More people and density greater but people are masked and shielded more than in the UK. But can the government control the rises over the next few weeks with just a few strict lockdowns and no early vaccines? Keeping some areas under GCQ may not be enough.

The main concern is that the medical facilities here cannot cope with the smaller proportion of serious covid cases this country has now at the present low levels of infection.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274


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Old Feb 26th 2021, 11:16 pm
  #684  
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I am not at all surprised by this upward trend. Yesterday I went through Marikina market, the first time for nearly a year (technically I am not allowed). What I observed was a general lackadaisical attitude towards the laid down precautions. Rather than the clamouring for less restrictive quarantine measures I foresee a tightening of restrictions, just as we have seen in the UK. The vaccination programme cannot come soon enough.
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Old Feb 27th 2021, 1:04 am
  #685  
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For me enclosed and partially enclosed markets are best to avoid, especially at certain times. They can monitor the vendors but what about all those people from far away places coming in and delivering produce? Even in our breezy area of upper Cavite I didn't feel comfortable one Sunday in a crowded covered but open to the sides market.
In Paranaque they operated earlier last year daily entry based on the last digit of your Q pass. Better, if possible, to use smaller street side markets.
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Old Feb 27th 2021, 10:29 pm
  #686  
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Yesterday nearly 3k national cases announced. The 2,921 positives were the highest since Oct 16. Six labs did not report. Over 1,100 of the positives were delayed results.
Positivity up again to 7.8%. Tests coming are 36.4k.

Deaths at 42 with 9 of them RDs.
Severe up 17, critical down 15. Only the minority who are ill with covid are in hospital.

Locational data for yesterday difficult to get and is limited to:

Regional: NCR 1,019, Central Visayas 681, Calabarzon 256, Cagayan Valley 194, Central Luzon 138, Davao 114, CAR 107, W Visayas 92, E Visayas 70, Other Mindanao 145

In the NCR: Pasay 170,Malabon 150,Manila 120, QC 119, Navotas 85, Makati 59,, Caloocan 47, Pasig 44,, Paranaque 38, Mandaluyong 29, Taguig 24, Marikina 20,
Las Pinas 19,Muntinlupa 16, San Juan 14.

For Cebu: Cebu City 239, LapuLapu City 152, Manadaue City 106

So NCR 34.9%, 4A 8.8% of national cases. Making 43.7% together of national cases.
Central Visayas with 23.3%.Cag V 6.6%, Cen Luzon 4.7%, Davao 3.9%. and CAR 3.7%. So just over 85% from those 7 regions.

Pasay City continues to surge with about 20 less cases than the day before. Paranaque has restricted movement between a small number of Pasay and Paranaque Brgys. Will this become a common measure in the NCR if things get worse?
Malabon with a large count of 150.....its last entry I reported was 58 on Feb 25. Only 11 cases the day before that.
Navotas with 85 also showing a sharp increase over recent days. One of the smaller cities in the NCR.


National


NCR


Cebu City

The recent increase in the NCR has prompted speculation amongst the experts that a variant is at least partly to blame there. Cebu has also been the subject of the same speculation for weeks now. But without any proof from testing that is all it is...speculation. In the case of the NCR there has been a gradual rise over the last month and a sharper increase just recently. the sharp increase the hallmark of the UK variant. But that could equally have been been caused by more economic activity and a relaxation of social distancing by the public.

Cebu awaits stricter measures as no improvement.

Vaccine news:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/27/...xpress-concern

It may not be very effective, but the Brazilian trial may have been a tough one for it, given the low standards in hospitals there. The numbers might be higher in future trials. Can they count on the government to offer them a better one?

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...O?ocid=BingHPC

Hopefully some movement coming on opening schools.



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Old Feb 28th 2021, 11:58 am
  #687  
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The much publicised Sinovac convoy whizzed past my residence 30 minutes ago. The storage facility is a brisk 15 minutes walk away. I might meander down there in the morning and see if they will give a 50% efficacy jab.
Such a shame that the Head of State is too old to qualify for Sinovav.
Nevermind Oxford Astra Zeneca will be here soon. I just hope that the powers that be do not make the same errors that France and Germany have made.
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Old Mar 1st 2021, 12:08 am
  #688  
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The AZ vaccine could have been a No No here if a link to aborted fetal cells, still up in a Rappler item by a visiting Reverend Biology Professor at UST, had not been debunked

https://www.rappler.com/voices/thoug...-controversial

Was male not female aborted fetal cells and came from a Fb video:

https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...ontain-aborte/



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Old Mar 1st 2021, 1:11 am
  #689  
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The case total down yesterday to 2,113 but that was from only 21.3k tests. Backlog included was 700. Positivity down to 6.6%. Tests in progress only 26k.
Low testing after Xmas probably allowed the gradual increase of cases, which has now quickened. Testing and tracing needs to be increased now with the rise in cases.

This was the plan before Xmas. We're now at just over 8m individuals, averaging 31.5k a day recently. One month to go and 2m to the end of Q1 so we would need to up the daily average to over 60k people a day!:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ainable/story/

Limited locational detail available again:

NCR 901, 4A 235, Central Visayas 200, Central Luzon 148, CAR 142

NCR dominated at 42.6% and 4A 11.1% of national cases. Total over half at 53.7%. Pasay City at 82, much down on previous days.
Central Visayas 9.5% with Cebu City 82. Greatly down on previous days.
CAR at 6.7%.

Deaths at 29 with 10 RDs.
Mass recovery stats day....9.4k of them.
Active cases up at 29,763 on last Sunday by over 3.5k or 13%.




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Old Mar 1st 2021, 11:05 am
  #690  
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Just some update on yesterday's cases now as data late coming in:


Twelve out of the 17 NCR cities in the top 20
Note; Pasay City was 180 not 82 as I said this morning! So not down.
NCR Reproductive number now estimated by the OCTA group to be at 1.51. For comparison national R now at 1.22.
What does that 1,51 R mean? If maintained the number of new cases in the NCR daily would be around 1,500 by the end of March. If NCR R rises to 1.5 in the next week and that is maintained we would be seeing more than 2,000 daily cases by the end of the month ie as many as we are now seeing for the whole country.

Other areas will add to that greatly if they continue to show rising cases:
The OCTA group look at attack rate, positivity and hospital bed occupancy. I have tried and failed to reconcile the case numbers with the DOH's as they differ, For the attack calculation maybe they also use their own population estimates rather than the 2015 census, which the DOH erroneously uses.




For some reason attack rates over 7.0 are of most concern. Included are a number of NCR cities, notably Pasay and Navotas. but also Makati and Malabon. Although Makati has bed occupancy at 84% you would think it could use hospitals in nearby cities. Valenzuala, Paranaque and Marikina with high positivity.
In Cebu, Cebu , Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities all with rising cases, high attack rates and positivity. LapuLapu also with high bed occupancy. Only good news is that Cebu City's upward trend is now less steep. Cebu's Reproductive number high at 1.38.
In the CAR both Tabuk in Kalinga and Baguio City with rising cases and high positivity.






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