Re: NCR llockdown
 

Ok...technically you're right, the UN say they are so maybe I should have said EU. But I don't think many people would have Ukraine or Russia in their mind when they hear or say Europe. Also I had in mind that an eastern part of Ukraine is controlled by Russian separatists and Wiki says they don't give their Covid 19 data to the central government.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well Moscow is in European Russia !

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, Russia seems to be considered a European country even though a large part of it is in Asia. Yet Turkey has a small area of land and an old capital city in Europe and it is west of the Urals, ,but it is considered an Asian country.

But not talking technically, which I wasn't, just think what you would have understood when you heard someone in the UK say "we should have good relations etc with Europe"
Do you think and would the great majority of people in the UK think they are including Russia and Ukraine?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Probably not, but then the general standard of education of things geographical and historical has diminished somewhat,
Keep safe I have enjoyed our little arm wrestle.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Once Napoleon wanted Russia in his empire. Then the Russian bear in the 19th C, communism and now Putin. That's why I don't think they are viewed as European any more.
All quite confusing. Some years ago the EU invited Turkey to become a member, though their application stalled. Israel got into the European Song Contest!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

And that other European bastion Australia.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Hey, we can fit into that sophisticated European thing!

Mon dieu!
I just ran over a kangaroo!

See?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Now I can post we can look at the last two days DOH data announcements together.

On the 19th 1,932 recent nationally, then yesterday 1,640. For the NCR 555 and 366. 4A had 468 and 264 recent cases.
Low figures.....but we shouldn't follow some in the media in getting excited yet as over the two days 31 labs did not report and more important is that recent testing numbers are low:

Latest yesterday: 21.2k individuals.
October 19: 17.2k

Maybe still the effect of the Red Cross dispute or the bad weather? And a policy to reduce?

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e0695c5c6b.jpg
The national positivity rate has fallen but is still well above WHO guidelines when testing can be reduced. Slight uptick lately.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...148515cece.jpg

On a regional basis positivity in the NCR is now much lower at 6% reflecting a lowered reproduction number at 0.7. But in Region 4A it is at 11%. In the North it mainly varies from 7 to 10%, although in Ilocos it is only at 1%. Visayas from 3 to 10%. The highest figures are now in Mindanao. They range from 8% in Davao City to a high 32% in the Agusan Provinces. Also high are Zamboanga and Cotabato cities at 17%.

Deaths nationally were 17 yesterday and 26 the day before The NCR over the two days had 11 with 9 of those very late reported. Mindanao had 16 over the two days with Zamboanga alone reporting 5 yesterday. Yesterday 4 old recoveries were changed to deaths.

After the two days the DOH claim 43,443 active cases.
Critical now at 1,477. Has fallen a little.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e3805f6ad6.jpg

An attempt to identify areas which need special measures by LGUs by taking into account case numbers, positive cases in relation to population and hospital occupancy
That some cities eg Makati, Marikina, Pasig, are in this list is surprising as they all have gained a reputation for doing a good job in testing and tracing. I think there must have been some protests as the chart above was later removed from the Rappler article.

A good idea but there will be a lot of disputes about how the case numbers are measured, given all the vagaries involved in testing operations by LGUs.

For more detail:
https://www.rappler.com/nation/exper...ized-lockdowns

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Another low day yesterday,1,509 cases and except for the NCR the great majority of them recent. But 13 labs not reporting and the latest testing figure 24.1k. Well up from the day before but still low. Seems that the Philippine Red Cross (PRC) labs are still not back to normal and other labs are having to take up some of their tests. So we can't say much about the trend until the labs responsible for about a quarter of all tests in the country are fully back.

Out of 1,356 positives nationwide the NCR had only 320 recent cases. Late cases were 17% of the total partly because of the PRC issue in their Manila labs.
Region 4A 297, Region 6 (W Visayas) 129 and Region 3 (Central Luzon) 112.
Notable that of the 18 regions reporting only 3 reported a single digit number of recent cases yesterday.

Deaths were at 50 nationwide with 15 of those late reported. Notable that they were reported from 13 Regions.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0048a25068.jpg


Now nearly 44k active cases and nearly 1,500 patients critical.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Lower case numbers continue to be reported. Nationwide 1,526 and a high 92% of them recent. Latest number of tests at 27.5k and there has been some upward revisions of recent test numbers so we can be a little more confident of the data. Although the PRC labs are still submitting less results than usual.. labs not submitting at 13.

Recent cases were in the NCR 438, 4A 235, E Visayas 170, Davao 100 and Central Visayas 96. All areas had over 90% recent, except the NCR at 89%.
The NCR reported 2 cases from March, 3 April and 1 each from May and June!

The total cases now are nearly 364k. Useful to see where we are with the UP projections I posted in early September:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fb02b8705f.jpg

We are close to the mean thick blue projection and maybe would be there if testing was able to be at higher levels in the regions away from the epicenter in Luzon and there hadn't been the PRC issue. The national reproduction number is estimated at 0.93 but could be nearly one with the margin of error and it is likely that virus spread is faster in many areas away from the epicenter,

This gives is the latest top 20 daily numbers by city. Self explanatory.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2bbc46a2c5.jpg

Deaths were 38 nationally with only 9 of them recent from the NCR and 4A.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7471bd7bb6.jpg
Eleven former recoveries have been reclassified as deaths and we can assume the great majority are in the late reported months columns for the NCR and 4A.

Yesterday I omitted to report that 16 recoveries were now deaths. That made me do a quick check back over the last few weeks on this strange data issue.
Going back to August I have counted 793 from my reports here alone and I have probably missed some! So probably at least one seventh of total deaths here so far were miss-classified.

Yesterday there were 15 deaths late reported from August and September. But 16 recoveries which are now classed as deaths were also reported. So one was wrongly classified this month. You would think this error by whoever in the system would be stopped by now.

A few less patients critical...1,477.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Recent cases yesterday at 1,745 nationally with 13 labs not reporting and the latest test number just under 30k. Better, but down a few thousand on the figures reached on a number of days earlier this month. The President's spokesman has promised the PRC will be paid a partial payment soon, but no news as to whether that will be enough for the PRC's testing to fully resume.

The NCR had 428 recent cases, Region 4A 302, W Visayas 209, Central Luzon 165, Davao 120, N. Mindanao 89 and E Visayas 75.
There was a 15% backlog in the NCR, with cases going back all the way to March. Region 4A had a 12% backlog.

Time to see how my 7 day moving averages of recent cases for the NCR and 4A look so far this month:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ef379d612f.jpg
Oct 4 Oct 19

Recent declines in both lines likely to have been exaggerated due to the PRC/Philhealth dispute and a general fall in testing.

Steadily improving but they are still the outbreak epicenter, with the latest daily positivity rate at 8.5% for the NCR, compared to 7.8% nationally.

Deaths a shocking 132, with 56 late reported going back to April! But less shocking when you read the DOH says that again there were a large number of "recovery deaths"...58!
These late miss-reported deaths were from the NCR (24 back to July), 4A (6 back to April), Central Luzon (22 back to April), Central Visayas (2) and W. Visayas (1).

After all that recent deaths were still at 56 and mostly from NCR 23,4A 17, C Luzon 11. W Visayas 9, C Visayas 6, Bicol 3.

As usual no one in the media saying anything about this mysterious feature of covid data here. The DOH's Oplan Recovery came into effect back in July with the aim to improve the reporting of covid recoveries and it should also have improved the monitoring of those cases deemed to have recovered. But just today there were 53 deaths late reported from July to September that were all or nearly all likely to have been miss-classified recoveries.

Looking at the portion of the latest league table of Case Fatality rates near that of the Philippines our latest data puts us above Ukraine and close to Greece:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d05f0d39b3.jpg
The latest case fatality rate for the Philippines now at 1.89%.

The second column is the Case Recovery Rate. Generally seen as an unreliable covid metric in many countries as definitions of recovery vary so much. The Philippines claims to be following WHO guidelines on recoveries but seeing the numbers having to be re-classified as deaths there must be some doubt about the figures here also.
But credit to be given to the DOH as it is at least looking at past reports of recoveries and then changing the data, even if months later.

The numbers on the critical list unchanged yesterday.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Despite what the various experts may say in the media the covid picture here is not a good one overall. Yes, NCR data shows a decline but other areas where the test/trace operations may not be as effective are showing increases. Dominated by cases in the NCR and Region 4A this chart shows national recent cases (bars only):

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e78ece136b.jpg
National recent cases in the bars.

Yesterday just under 2k recent more cases at 1,892. In detail NCR 506,4A 369, CAR(Baguio) 142, W Visayas, N Mindanao and Davao at 130 cases each, Central Luzon at 117.
Recent cases generally were around 90% of the total, except for Central Luzon at 85%.

Labs not reporting 12 and testing still just below 30k at 28.8k individuals most recently.

One example of the Provincial spread is given by the CAR Region, which reported a high number of new infections yesterday:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...45af41ee31.jpg
CAR incl Baguio City

A few months ago Baguio City was being praised for its effective track/trace operation, but despite that infections are on the rise, as they are in many other areas away from the Manila and surrounding area and most of the Visayas area.

Deaths at 19 nationally, with 3 late reported...including 1 all the way back from April in the NCR! NCR 8 deaths and Region 4A 3. Visayas 5 in total.
Slight increase in the critical numbers to 1,481.

Internationally second waves are prevalent. Especially in Europe and to a lesser extent North America:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c8db872510.jpg
WHO
European cases added in a week grew by 51%. North American cases by 13%.

This nice WHO graphic shows the pandemic picture for deaths and cases by continent up to now. North and South America combined.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...65abf7d0bf.jpg

Re: NCR llockdown
 

the real test will come mid december to mid march the coolest months of the year. This bug seems to thrive in the cooler months

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes. Even now In the rainy days people are indoors more, where the virus can spread easily. More people with no jobs to go out to and lacking money to go out encourages indoors socializing. Festive season coming up. But can't see any household or group meeting restrictions like those applying in the UK now ever being brought in here.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Just over 2k recent cases yesterday with the great majority recent in all regions except in 4A, where 88% were recent. Labs not reporting at 16 and the latest testing number again under 30k at 27k.

For the regions NCR with 537 recent cases, 4A 397, Central Luzon 165, W Visayas 153, CAR 110, N Mindanao 103, Davao 89 and Bicol 67.
Mindanao had about 400 cases in total.

Deaths nationally at 43 with late reported 14. Linked to another finding of "recovery deaths"...the DOH say there were 11, one going back to May. Nearly all in the NCR and 4A.
Recent deaths were 7 in NCR, 5 in 4A, 4 in CAR, 2 in Central Luzon.
Total of 7 recent deaths in Mindanao.

A slight decrease in critical patients at 1,471.

Yesterday was again the DOH's recovery day. 15k were announced.
The number of active cases they say is now at 35k, a welcome drop of nearly 5k over a week ago...as long as the those recoveries really have recovered!

Looking again at Indonesia we see the country adding 4k cases to their total over the last week, about double the daily increase here, and is at 5th position in Asia.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1ed5cb7dac.jpg

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9ec1ab24a2.jpg

The testing level is far too low there. The Philippines is testing about 31k per million while Indonesia has tested only about 16k per million.
It's latest average national positivity is reported at 14%, whereas here it is under 10%.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/...ndard-for-new-
normal.