NCR llockdown

Old Aug 21st 2020, 9:05 am
  #331  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3

I knew this was coming. Bought two yesterday. Adapting John Cleese's dialogue from Monty Python I would say it is a bit silly. Whereas the bike shields were very silly.
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Old Aug 21st 2020, 10:27 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Raffin
The government seems desperate for a vaccine but I'm just wondering what will be the effect of all these unreported cases on any mass covid vaccination programme? People who already have the virus given more. Will they all be tested before they get the shots? Especially as by next year much more virus spread has occurred from the unreported.
If they are going to be doing a large Phase III Trial they will have to test potential recipients. It does no good to vaccinate someone who may already be resistant. You don't want someone previously exposed showing antibody "production" when all it is actually showing is the presence of past antibodies. So everyone will likely get an antibody test (maybe two different varieties as most only have about 80-85% accuracy). Then they'll be checked to see if the antibodies have been stimulated. That group will be compared to the placebo group, but also to the infection rates in the general population. Side effects will also be monitored for recipients vs. control group.

BTW when they do their first large-scale Phase III test...it's also likely they will undertake some general random testing in the General Population as well. That may be limited to a certain district however. But knowing the rate of infection (present and past) is important as you need enough sick people to pose a risk of infection to the vaccinated group to see if it actually works. But you don't want too many people who have been previously exposed because that will impact the ability to have encounters with disease spreaders.

Last edited by RedApe; Aug 21st 2020 at 10:32 pm.
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Old Aug 21st 2020, 11:02 pm
  #333  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by RedApe
If they are going to be doing a large Phase III Trial they will have to test potential recipients. It does no good to vaccinate someone who may already be resistant. You don't want someone previously exposed showing antibody "production" when all it is actually showing is the presence of past antibodies. So everyone will likely get an antibody test (maybe two different varieties as most only have about 80-85% accuracy). Then they'll be checked to see if the antibodies have been stimulated. That group will be compared to the placebo group, but also to the infection rates in the general population. Side effects will also be monitored for recipients vs. control group.

BTW when they do their first large-scale Phase III test...it's also likely they will undertake some general random testing in the General Population as well. That may be limited to a certain district however. But knowing the rate of infection (present and past) is important as you need enough sick people to pose a risk of infection to the vaccinated group to see if it actually works. But you don't want too many people who have been previously exposed because that will impact the ability to have encounters with disease spreaders.
Well that isn't about to happen then. I'm sure all the Russians will be interested in is how many die from the vaccine or grow two heads.
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Old Aug 22nd 2020, 12:18 am
  #334  
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Yes, it seems likely that the approach to deploying a Russian vaccine won't follow Red Ape's steps properly. Maybe the same would go for Chinese vaccines? Makers from most other countries would demand much more compliance. Authoritarian governments and especially those in a hurry will be their customers.

Red Ape: I was thinking more about the problem of existing infection during the deployment of mass vaccination if there is a high incidence of unreported and unknown infection. Then it seems a lot more testing should be done before vaccination. The DOH have brought out their supporter from UP to try to rubbish the Ateneo report. A mathematician, unqualified in epidemiology, who consistently paints a rosy picture on TV appearances.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/21/...te-procurement

The President has used part of a law on the outbreak here to do away with Phase 4 trials of a vaccine. If it's the Russian one then that was no problem anyway. But the DOH don't give the names of the other countries they claim are also doing the same. I suppose most countries will be cutting some corners in Phase 4 but to cut it out may not be wise, especially if other phases have been rushed?

https://www.news-medical.net/health/...cal-Trial.aspx





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Old Aug 22nd 2020, 12:57 am
  #335  
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Going back to an earlier reference to Monty Python, from The Life Of Brian "Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life"
With all the continuing confusion and disregard to the plight of the general populace Fred Carno's Circus also springs to mind.
Why stake all of your hopes on the two most untrustworthy entities?
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Old Aug 22nd 2020, 2:07 am
  #336  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx
Going back to an earlier reference to Monty Python, from The Life Of Brian "Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life"
With all the continuing confusion and disregard to the plight of the general populace Fred Carno's Circus also springs to mind.
Why stake all of your hopes on the two most untrustworthy entities?
The way I take the Life of Brian song is more about stoicism in the face of adversity. A quality to be admired here even more than before in the general population. Not so much hope. Think you can get some on the pandemic from the some lower levels of government, but it's a very top down system. Otherwise you are left with prayer....if you are a believer in that.

I guess most of us have some actions or aims which are at present blocked by all this. Maybe you also thought back in early March it would all be about over by now? So it's better to see the picture as it is so not to be disappointed.
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Old Aug 22nd 2020, 7:07 am
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Old Aug 22nd 2020, 1:14 pm
  #338  
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I just heard someone commenting on the Russian use of Third World countries as their testing ground for their vaccine. The virologist pointed out the risk of undertaking large scale releases of a less than effective vaccine. The virus may, though the process of Natural Selection, evolve into strains that have resistance to other vaccines. There may be a temporary recovery in a particular recipient but then a massive wallop far worse than if the individual had no vaccine at all. And when that strain spreads into areas that have eliminated Covid-19 through using another vaccine...then the mutated-selected strain may cause new outbreaks.

As well there could be inappropriate application to groups that are sensitive to the vaccine or a vaccine+virus interaction. The Philippines should recall the Dengvaxia scandal of just a couple of years back.
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Old Aug 23rd 2020, 2:20 am
  #339  
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Thought this was interesting as it seems the Rush-ian coronavirus project is in a long tradition of risk taking in the development of medical treatments:

https://theprint.in/science/covid-va...iments/480093/

In addition there are Putin's continued attempts to be a superpower in more than military terms.

In the communist era it was presumably easy to cover up public health problems, as it was with disasters in other areas like their space programme when they struggled to catch up with the US. I read elsewhere that in the Communist time people, unsurprisingly, followed the State doc with vaccinations. But these days people there, like in the West, are starting to refuse vaccines. Declining a vaccine is apparently not questioned. That leaves experimentation to the military etc. So they may be happy for their vaccines to be tested in other countries.

Poisoning..yes..the country of choice....but vaccines? Better the Chinese, although some of the same issues apply.. They also claim to have few cases there now.
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Old Aug 23rd 2020, 2:26 pm
  #340  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Raffin
Thought this was interesting as it seems the Rush-ian coronavirus project is in a long tradition of risk taking in the development of medical treatments:

https://theprint.in/science/covid-va...iments/480093/

In addition there are Putin's continued attempts to be a superpower in more than military terms.

In the communist era it was presumably easy to cover up public health problems, as it was with disasters in other areas like their space programme when they struggled to catch up with the US. I read elsewhere that in the Communist time people, unsurprisingly, followed the State doc with vaccinations. But these days people there, like in the West, are starting to refuse vaccines. Declining a vaccine is apparently not questioned. That leaves experimentation to the military etc. So they may be happy for their vaccines to be tested in other countries.

Poisoning..yes..the country of choice....but vaccines? Better the Chinese, although some of the same issues apply.. They also claim to have few cases there now.
Not new experimenting experimental drugs on the military, the British gov were not shy doing that during the Gulf War.
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Old Aug 24th 2020, 1:16 am
  #341  
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Originally Posted by Stokkevn
Not new experimenting experimental drugs on the military, the British gov were not shy doing that during the Gulf War.
Think here the military and police could well be in vaccine trials. They will be asked to do more in return for their generous treatment since 2016. Though from what I've seen, given their more representative health conditions, the police will be preferred!

The official death tally from Covid is no longer a favourable metric that this country can use. Total now touching 3k.
Not going in the right direction. The Nationwide 4 week average deaths trend line has for some weeks been flat at levels just a bit below what it was at the peak in the early days of the outbreak. For the NCR lately it is rising steeply towards, though is not yet near the early peak level.

Looking at some weekly DOH data published last week there were 1,335 people in hospital either in a severe or critical condition. The week before it was 1,214.
By the way, perhaps intentionally, these figures are published in the least accessible DOH publication. Their daily bulletin only gives them as a percentage of the total of active cases. This makes it difficult as every so often large numbers of mild cases are deemed to have recovered and are removed from the active total.

On positivity NCR labs last week found 14.7% of individuals positive. Compared with 17% in the previous week. So maybe some small benefit of the 2 week MECQ? Nationwide the figure is 11.9%.

Roughly 31k individuals results a day were produced nationally, two weeks ago it was about 28k. In that time extra labs have been added but to not much effect on the daily average.

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Old Aug 24th 2020, 2:22 am
  #342  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Stokkevn
Not new experimenting experimental drugs on the military, the British gov were not shy doing that during the Gulf War.
They still did that on volunteers when I was in RAF at Porton Down. The pay was good apparently.
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Old Aug 24th 2020, 3:52 am
  #343  
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https://philippineslifestyle.com/mmd...et-motorcycle/

Motorcyclists may need to spend again, this time on full-face visor helmets. Of course it's common sense that plastic face shields can be blown by the wind. Well, now it is!
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Old Aug 24th 2020, 8:38 am
  #344  
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I really don't see how a visor has any beneficial effect, it does nothing to filter the air flow.
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Old Aug 24th 2020, 3:15 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d
I really don't see how a visor has any beneficial effect, it does nothing to filter the air flow.
It has very little effect in a mall and nearly no effect on a motorbike but at least the uneducated gov officials have fore filled their duty of recommending something. I am still waiting for the married couples bedroom shield design that they should wear just after they have got off their motorbike using the dangerous shield there. I can only assume some gov official has a face shield manufacturing factory and needs to increase the pocket contributions
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