mikemike

I busted curfew last night left home at 1m to get to work not stopped or flagged down, Will not try that tonight as the car is plated and that would be asking for big trouble

nonthaburi

Not looking good.


​​​https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14...o-pandemonium/

Raffin

A good assessment of the situation here. Already poor health services will struggle. Also, relying on the low median age of the population to mitigate the outbreak severity may not work. Looking at Wikipedia one can see that just under a third of the confirmed cases so far are age 40 or under.. Young people here can be very unhealthy.

nonthaburi

Luzon lockdown.


https://amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject....rantine-entire

RedApe

Actually I'd say that the number of cases below 40 seems low. A "case" means one is infected but without being indicative of the seriousness of illness. But usually people only get tested if they are symptomatic, so that means that a large number of infected people are out there but not getting tested. Since older people tend to show more severe symptoms they will skew the testing upward and make up a significant disproportion of that statistic. That said the idea of letting the virus run it's course so that some sort of group or herd immunity will exist is simply crazy. Usually you start seeing some effect when about 60% of the population have been infected - the rates start declining because of THAT...but think of how many people that actually is and at a 3% mortality rate that generates. You start moving to reasonable levels of control at 90%.

Philippines 105 million x 60% = 63 million....at .03 mortality that's 1.9 million people dead. Not a big fan of herd immunity unless it's by immunization with a less lethal form of the virus.

Raffin

From what I have read and listened to the idea of "herd immunity" mainly came up as a possible helpful factor in the later months of a country's outbreak. Not as a policy itself. It would be a plus factor favouring a policy of virus delay rater than containment. Britain stands out in Europe in its pursuit of a delay policy, for now, at least.. And in relation to the Philippines. The difference between these policies has been described as being like the difference between how to sensibly run a Marathon and a 100m race. The outbreak does look increasingly that it is in its very early stages. The delay policy is also said to take into account some theories of bahavioural science on how people will react over the long term to restrictions.

RedApe

Well every government will frame their policy on a) what is possible with your resources to impose, b) the amount of hospital assets one has, c) understanding of the process of epidemics/science by the politicians, and d) impacts on the economies/business pressures.

Except for "early" one never knows what stage of an epidemic spread one is in. So to speak of a "herd immunity" being a helpful factor in the later month's of a country's outbreak" ignores the fact that no country knows when they are at that stage...except from the fact that there has been enormous levels of death and illness. If a nation is trying to contain the viral spread... one doesn't know whether one is in a Marathon, 10km, 5km, 1500m, 400m or 50m. If you are successful in containment then early = late. If one isn't, it could spread and there could be any number of possible plateaus and breakouts. The more your policy allows spread and the more people that are exposed the more likely another breakout. That will occur until almost everyone has been exposed (herd immunity). That is likely what happened with the Spanish Flu and the Measles Pandemics between 1918-1924.

Of course the only final "late stage" (which no country actually wants) is 100% saturation/exposure. That's the Marathon. And that will likely result in vast numbers of deaths.

It's also important to realize that strategies of social distancing and quarantine are not the same as "obtaining herd immunity". Those are techniques to flatten the curve...to slow the spread so that whatever health care resources don't get swamped. That may reduce mortality...with the irony that those that survive are unlikely to get ill from the same strain again (we hope...the virus is novel and its behavior is still not fully known). It's also still unclear how long after recovery the individual may be capable of transmitting the virus again. Or if they are resistant to mutant strains and if so, can they harbor and pass on that new "novel" version.

I think the UK has largely retreated from its "delay" policy now the PM is aware that it is not a viable one in terms of deaths, hospitalizations, and spread.

Raffin

According to the BBC the disease modelers are working overtime in the UK, mainly looking at the frightening situation in Italy. The government's chief scientific adviser has said the country is "3 weeks behind Italy"!

True, there is movement towards a British type of suppression policy ...but one with schools still on and no community lockdowns.. In stark contrast to many other countries in Europe and elsewhere. Fears of what might happen when even these mild controls are lifted are apparently freely admitted and discussed in British scientific circles. The worry is that herd immunity could then be less with still no vaccine ready.

Although China can boast of now only having imported cases they may still face that same exit situation with most people in Wuhan still susceptible to the virus.

nonthaburi

And what happens to the rest of China when controls are lifted fully ? Be interesting to see.

Stokkevn

China must be pretty confident that they have cracked it, they are now sending aid to the US

RedApe

The absurdity of herd immunity when you don't have a readily available vaccine

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...virus-covid-19

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ohnson/608065/

Originally Bo Jo stated the plan was the government would no longer try to track and trace the contacts of every suspected case, and it would test only people who are admitted to hospitals.
In lieu of any major social-distancing measures, Johnson instead offered a suite of soft advice—people with symptoms should stay home; no school trips abroad; people over 70 should avoid cruises. Some people call this a "mitigation strategy" and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has modeled that will mean 250,000 fatalities.

It's clear that Johnson has realized that this was NOT a political or scientifically sound policy. One needs a combination of strong social distancing measures..,.,closure of all events and meetings, pubs, restaurants, clubs, concerts, nursery schools, church and mosque services, malls and other central places.

The changes and retreats by Johnson's advisors and spokespeople smells of revisionism and retreat from Boris' claim that they were applying a "different strategy" than the EU (to paraphrase "Britain has regained its sovereignty") and raising the term "herd community" as a strategy. Bad messaging? Perhaps...or simply not understanding the science.

Stokkevn

Seems like trump was trying to buy a vaccine just for the use in America and no where else. Nice

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-vaccine-deal
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/donal...arch-12403129/

nonthaburi

Or false bravado to regain international standing and gain virus brownie points after lying to the world, threatening doctors and journalists etc when the outbreak first started. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

RedApe

NO MASS GATHERINGS!

https://www.theborneopost.com/2020/0...s-off-capital/

Raffin

Unfortunately with no school, work..or if they have work and live outside the city no proper accommodation, large numbers are now massed in the slums of Manila.