Raffin

Not surprised as the EO of this country's leader back in March did not give a distance...although 1m is by far the most common one around. Never mind the lining up etc Some video of shoppers in Oxford St a few days ago showed not even 1m being observed, But the scientists will have a distance in mind and its real importance comes in areas like education and transport.

In the UK it's being taken seriously. A reporter on the BBC said that changing the distance from 2m down to 1m would mean that English classrooms could safely accommodate 20 rather than 15 students. Applying similar thinking here a 2m distance applied to state schools would probably mean splitting most classes into an impossible 3 groups, but with 1m you can scrape 2. Even so face to face contact will be very limited and they will still need those Chinese transistor radios!

Raffin

https://www.rappler.com/nation/26440...s-june-22-2020

Modern jeepneys to be allowed back and soon it looks like UVs will be too. But what about the transport workhorse,.. the traditional jeep? We have two parked up near our house for 3 months now. The driver of the nearest one runs the engine every few days. He has no other job. Some weeks ago a Solon floated the idea of recruiting them for contact tracing work! Really? He's obviously not in the poorest of them, but from reports many seem to be in a very bad state.

I think the authorities have generally been very slow to bring back mass road transport in Manila by trying much too hard to achieve their desired social distancing. As shown best by the late U turn on motorcycle backriding. Not taking into account the poor social distancing for people waiting for other forms of transport and the sheer inconvenience to the poor.

Traditional jeepneys when going along have plenty of outside air flow and perhaps when stationary this could be suplemented by fans? Compare that with the enclosed UVs. They could be restricted to 50% maximum capacity, like the modernized. And allowed to charge a bit more. But the plastic sheeting in the modernized jeepneys looks impossible to put in the traditional ones, and maybe this alone will stop them being brought back in the next few months...or even ever. Which may be a nice unintended outcome for the authorities. They have long been annoyed with the opposition of the traditional jeepney owners and drivers to the modernization programme.

RedApe

Just need to take some 1 meter wide cardboard boxes and tape them on the seats. Of course people going down the aisle will cross into the zone of other people. To reduce physical contact Jeepneys should allow only one person in the aisle at any one time and wait at the stop longer.

Gazza-d

They also need to implement designated stops rather than either side of a junction because the passenger is to lazy to cross the road.

Raffin

Yes, that could well work, together with some other simple measures, Though the owners may not bother if they think that income reducing capacity limits are going to be in place for a long time with no further government financial assistance. And they know the long term agenda is to get rid of traditional Jeeps and bring in the modernized ones. To get an idea of the transport deficit and the numbers of drivers etc who will lose their jobs I tried and failed to get a number for the traditional Jeeps, but it must be in the thousands in Manila alone. With all the restrictions in place there\s patently nowhere near enough transport to get people to work, but all they say is that they might allow the use of some traditional Jeeps at some point.....if they need to!

Interesting that passengers on the modernized vehicles with AC need to fill up a contact form, so maybe there isn't total confidence they are that safe? The role AC might play in aiding virus spread is a matter of concern, I have seen a couple of videos of how that can work in restaurants on international news channels. This post from the IBON foundation summarizes some related findings. Dismissed by the President's spokesman.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...nvinced/story/

mikemike

Prior to lock down there was never enough buses as most would cram every last space with a body part and then some would be hanging out the doors. pretty much same for the jeepneys. Yet at the same time we were told that heavy traffick was due to volumes of buses and jeepneys. Now ith reduces numbers of both plus spatial distancing , there will not be enough workers to to get the jobs done or look after their families. Reality is that with spatial distancing there would have to be more than double the number of buses and jeepneys as there were before pre lock down...just to almost be at par for travelling public.

Raffin

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Good at last a lawmaker coming out with some figures on the blindingly obvious. She says there are 75,000 traditional jeeps laid up. Wow! And as mike2 says at the best of times they aren't enough.

Governments around the world are realising that there are some areas where it's not possible to bring full economic life back and at the same time impose strict COVID social distancing rules eg at airports, transport generally and probably too with hospitality. With the one exception of mask wearing, which can be both imposed by the government and the individual. Given the third world economy we have here it would be disastrous to prevent the millions of poor in Manila from earning a living for much longer. Ms Quimbo wants an alternative to the Jeep provided....there isn't one.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/23/...s-enforced-doh

Another lady at the DOH isn't worried by the AC in the modernized Jeeps, but is concerned that in a traditional Jeep passengers are facing each other. Well, they would all be wearing masks, which are very effective in reducing transmission. One big reason why many Asian countries have done better than most European countries and the US in this pandemic. Plus, unlike the new Jeeps, there is, or could be generated, a good air current. She says safety standards would need to be enforced......but people here, as far as my observations are concerned anyway, are very good at wearing them.

Both ladies like the idea of dividers. But as the DOH U/S remarks the driver/owners can't afford to fit them. As they would need to be made of Perspex, For me, not necessary, as sideways transmission risks will be small. Setting capacity maximums so we will be under pre COVID overcrowding levels and, at the same time, earn the owners some profit will be Ok for now as economic activity is recovering and many people will be continuing working fully or partly from home.

RedApe

Even if you are gonna have partitions (and unless you clean them regularly-i.e. after each customer leaves) there would be body/clothing contact transmission with the prior passenger.

Don't know if anyone has done any studies or models of jeepney airflow and Covid spread. I've seen some models on the spread of unmasked vs. masked individuals in restaurants and running. Masked certainly ~ helps but airflow patterns in an open jeepney would likely cause the spread down the row, not directly across. It would be particles expressed through the side of the mask that would be the risk to other riders. Still the large particles would still be reduced...it would be the microparticles that would be the issue. These tend to have reduced viral load. Except when people cough or sneeze...most of the voids are caught be the mask but some macro particles do get out through the sides and top of the mask. If I rode a jeepney I'd take a long shower after getting home, and put my clothes in a heavy detergent wash.

Raffin

The numbers of COVIID cases have been steadily rising here over the last few weeks. While this is a lot to do with more testing and the death tally is low how good is the contact tracing to lower the future count? Then there are reports of health issues after recovery, even for young people. The most immediate issue is probably the effect on hospitals. Patients likely to be turned away. Maybe not yet in Manila, although there are reports of some hospitals in financial difficulty as Philhealth has been accused of being slow in paying them for COVID treatment..

Cebu City has become a hotspot, with the most cases of any city in the country. The President said the local government there had been slow to act so he sent in some members of the IATF, earlier this week. All Quarantine passes have been immediately withdrawn.....with no announcement as of last night as to how people are going to get out for essential purposes! Things are not going that well in parts of Manila either, so let's hope that will not be copied here!

The President appointed the head of the DENR to oversee the Cebu operation. He's still keeping that position, which has raised some eyebrows. Interestingly he's a retired General, as is the head of the nationwide anti COVID operation. The President is at present going around army bases to push the campaign against the NPA and the cabinet has about a quarter of its members ex Armed Forces or Police, so it's not surprising. But I just wonder whether these military guys are the right ones to head the moves out of lockdown?

Raffin

"At least 20 million people in the US may already have been infected with Covid-19, according to the latest estimate by health officials.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) says the true number of cases is likely to be 10 times higher than the reported figure.....

Our best estimate right now is that for every case that was reported, there actually were 10 other infections," CDC Director Dr Robert Redfield told reporters.

This was because testing was restricted to people with symptoms and ASYMPTOMATIC CARRIERS were not tested, he said."

BBC News June 26

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/25/...-exceeds-50000

Expanding to non medical frontliners looks sensible after a slow start when the authorities really neglected medical frontliners. But they must still be missing most of the asymptomatic carriers. Since the Philippines has a young population this must be a big concern. This research compares Italy, where testing mainly followed infection and S Korea, where many people not showing symptoms were also tested:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world...-covid-19.html

The official case total here is about 33,000 now. But it seems it could really be much more. Yes, they can mostly be with milder symptoms, but they can spread it to older people and will keep all the annoying and economy restricting quarantines in place for longer.

Gazza-d

I don't know if they just don't know or are plain lying but somewhere like Cebu or Manils could have 30,000 cases on their own without trying. People say oh it's bad here or bad there. 30,000 nationwide no way.

Raffin

Think it's mainly a combination of poor reporting in addition to just not knowing through being slow to test in the many densely populated areas in Manila and Cebu.

But they have a motive to lie here as they are always claiming our long and strict lockdowns, using large numbers of police and military have kept the numbers low. Now cases are increasing together with hospital admissions they cannot put most of it down to increased testing and the slow opening up the economy. Social distancing and mask wearing seems to be at a high level. Some brave people are asking unwelcome questions to an authoritarian government on whether good use was made of the lockdowns.

Under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths is a worldwide problem, not just in developing countries. Britain did not include care home deaths in the daily announced total for many weeks. And this BBC report shows that using Excess Death calculations the UK earlier this month had added about 25% to its deaths total:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

I think an excess deaths calculation here would show much more than 25%.

Raffin

A couple of analyses suggesting a certain lack of transparency here on the COVID-19 outbreak. Following what has been seen elsewhere in the world with regards to the slow updating of data and a tendency to put too much blame on imported infections.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/26540...ronavirus-data

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/01/...ss-than-10-pct

Raffin

A coincidence, but the last thing that transport lacking young commuters need is this extra requirement to attend and pass a theoretical course to get their student license. Three five hour lectures?

https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1844511

Raffin

According to this article only about 12% of Traditional Jeepneys have now returned to ply sometimes shortened routes in Metro Manila, at greatly reduced capacity. Subject to lots of requirements, some sensible but others probably not, including record keeping of passengers, and record keeping by passengers. Wouldn't be surprised that unless some of the more onerous requirements aren't dropped many won't want to come back. Especially as they will struggle to make a living long term.

The two Jeeps we can see from our house are still laid up. And very few to be seen on the main throughfares in our part of Paranaque.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/26543...ey-july-3-2020