NCR llockdown

Old Sep 6th 2022, 9:45 pm
  #1816  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a big fall in cases following very low weekend testing. Cases at 1.326. The latest test level up tp 17.9k.
Active 23,272, down 1,221

Location detail

NCR 498 and up to 38% of all cases. For the biggest cities 326 with QC 112, Manila 68, Caloocan 40.

CL down to 146, 4A to 236.
Bulacan 59, Cavite 85, Rizal 75, Laguna 38.

These 3 regions with two thirds of all cases.

CAR 39, Baguio City 12
Ilocos 56
Cagayan 35
Bicol 11

Visayan regions down to 127.
WV and CV 58 and 55 cases.
Cebu City and IloIlo City each 8.

Mindanao down to 168.
Davao City 43.

First boosters not reaching target:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/06/...-shots-lagging


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Old Sep 7th 2022, 10:05 pm
  #1817  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday new cases up by 324 to 1,750. Latest testing up by only 2k to 19.8k.
Active 22,899, down 373

Location detail

NCR up to 665 and maintaining 38% of all cases. The six cities with 409, about 62% of NCR cases. QC 147, Manila 67, Taguig 58, Paranaque 57, Pasig 40, Caloocan 40.

CL and 4A both up, but only by about 30 cases.
Bulacan 48, Bataan 8, Pampoanga 19
Cavite 83, Rizal 71, Laguna 62, Batangas 36

These 3 regions down to 63% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon:

CAR 32, Baguio City 23
Ilocos up 47 to 103
Cagayan up 26 to 61
Bicol up 17 to 28

Visayas cases: up 55 to 182.
WV up to 91, CV 50.
Cebu City 18

Mindanao up 57 to 225.
NM 39, Davao 57, SOOCSK 51.
Davao City 34

Some movement on outdoor face masks:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...face-mask-rule

https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...e-mask-policy/

Low booster vaccinations put up as an argument against removing the public outside mask mandate. Despite the poor performance of vaccines to prevent Omicron transmission. Which is low outside anyway.
I repeat linking to this Straits Times article..on Asian mask policies:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ound-the-world
Malaysia, doing the best with about 50%, Thailand about 40% and Indonesia with 21%, about the same as here.








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Old Sep 8th 2022, 11:05 pm
  #1818  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday over 600 more cases at 2,404. Latest test level up slightly to 20.5k.
Active 24,032, up 1,133

Location detail

NCR up by 180 cases to 945 and a slightly higher 39% of all cases. About the same increase in the cases in its 6 largest cities......QC 190, Manila 112, Paranaque 86, Taguig 79, Pasig 74.

CL up to 190, 4A up by over 130 to 399.
Bulacan 67
Cavite up 73 to 156, Laguna down to 58, Rizal up 32 to 103, Bataangas 54. Quezon 21.

These 3 regions at a slightly higher 64% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR up to 50. Baguio City 25.
Ilocos up 15 to 118.
Cagayan up to 80.
Bicol 29

Visayas up by 50 cases to 232.
WV up 28 to 109
CV up 10 to 60
Cebu City 16.

Mindanao up 115 to 340.
Davao region up 78 to 135.
SOCCSK up 32 to 83.
Davao City up to 40.
Zamboanga City 18
CDO City 9
GenSan 2
Iligan City 0


Dr John presenting from World in Data a chart showing that excess non covid deaths are high and rising lately in a number of countries around the world. At least in the UK this is seen in all age groups. Dr John says this is also seen in other countries. Though in a recent newsletter on Australia SS noted that higher excess deaths were not being seen in the lower age groups but mostly in the three upper ones (SS Newsletter Aug 2).
https://supersally.substack.com/
Dr John goes on to speculate on a number of possible causes.
But this recent data is difficult to attribute to vaccination roll out as suggested by SS here and by others elsewhere. We see in the Philippines a pattern of excess deaths rising to peaks following vaccine roll out. Two analysts, reported here in this thread, saying that US and European data showed a death peak within a week or two of vaccination and another after 5-6 months. But the countries in the WiD chart are different from here as they are now well into their 2nd booster roll outs and showing non covid excess deaths much greater than in 2021. Whereas in the Philippines the data shows a large number of non covid excess deaths in 2021. Of course this does not rule out longer term effects of infection and vaccination being implicated.
We await further analysis of this worldwide feature.

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Old Sep 9th 2022, 11:11 pm
  #1819  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday about 90 fewer cases to 2,313. But the latest test report down by nearly 2k to 18.6k. Strange as positivity numbers are still high.
Active 24,300, up 268.

Location detail

NCR down by 180 to 765 and a much lower 33% of all cases. But the number in its 6 largest cities down by less,129, to 455. QC 156, Manila 85, Paranaque 64.

CL down to 172.
Bulacan 63

4A up 103 to 502.
Cavite 149, Laguna up to 77, Rizal with cases more than doubling to 228.

These 3 regions with a lower 62% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR more than doubled to 121. Baguio City more than tripled to 88.
Ilocos up 105 to 223
Cagayan up 26 to 106
Bicol 8

Visayas cases down 81 to 151
WV and CV 61 and 66 cases.
Cebu City 21

Mindanao cases down by about 100 to 246
Davao region stable at 133.
Davao City up to 58.

Looks like common sense will prevail. Though why do these so obvious moves take so long here?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/09/...s-out-soon-doh


The DOH, seemingly losing on public face masks, putting out a dramatic warning about lack of boosters in the NCR:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

But it is well known that vaccination does little to reduce transmission. And that's mainly how the virus spreads.







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Old Sep 10th 2022, 10:46 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a surprising increase in NCR cases.

National cases up by over 800 to 3,165. Latest testing at the end of the week up only slightly to 18.9k.
Active 26,074, up 1,774

Location detail

NCR cases up to 1,220, the highest for 3 weeks. Might just be a backlog of old cases again. We have to see its numbers next week to know, Its 6 largest cities up to 770 and 63% of cases. QC 231, Manila and Pasig both doubled to 174 and 102, Paranaque 96, Taguig 88, Caloocan more than doubled to 79. That cases in all these cities rose suggests this is no backlog.

CL increased by 146 to 318.
Bulacan up to 116.
4A down by about 50 to 454.
Cavite 153, Rizal 126, Laguna 90, Batangas 66, Quezon 12.

These 3 regions at 63% of all all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR 85...Baguio City 29
Ilocos very low at 17
Cagayan down to 72
Bicol 8

Visayas cases more than doubled to 363.
WV more than doubled to 128
CV up to 95
Its big cities low. Cebu City 26, IloIlo City 17, Bacolod 22.

Mindanao up by about 80 to 320.
Zamboanga up to 66, NM to 77, SOCCSK to 100.
Again the main cities very low: Davao 8, CDO 15, GenSan 2, Zamboanga 26.

Two more areas moving on outdoor masks in advance of promised Presidential ruling:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/10/...usts-residents

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...e/ar-AA11GjOZ?


Weekly report later.
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Old Sep 11th 2022, 4:58 am
  #1821  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Weekly update

National cases down 3% (-23%)
Remembering that last week's fall was estimated to allow for some old CL cases being included misleadingly by the DOH.
Last week's DOH figure included them and gave only a 10% fall.

For the NCR there was a small increase of 4% (-19%)
For its biggest cities:

Taguig +36%
Caloocan +20
Paranaque +8

Manila and QC: stable

Pasig -4%

A reversal to either no change or an increase for 5 of the cities. Only Caloocan continued from last week with another similar rise to its 21% increase last week.
Up to 343 cases for the week.

Region CL -18% (-25%)...Bulacan -5% (-26%)
Region 4A +6% (-24%)......Cavite +3% (-24%), Laguna -7% (-22%), Rizal +31% (-18%), Batangas -5% (-25%), Quezon -32% (-25%)

Elsewhere in Luzon:

The CAR -8% (-44%)
Ilocos +26% (-27%)
Cagayan -19% (-29%)
Bicol -19% (-26%)

In the Visayas:

A fall of 9% (-28%).
Although WV fell by 16%, (-25%), CV by 12% (-34%)
Moderated by increases in MIMAROPA and EV.
Cebu City -27% (-24%)

Mindanao in contrast showing an increase in the rate of fcase fall:
-30% (-13%)
Davao City -41% (-6%), Zamboanga City -30% (-8%).

So, there is a reversal in recent trends in most of Luzon and in the Visayas.
Importantly also a reversal from last week with increases in a number of NCR cities, including 3 of the biggest 6.
Also a big reduction in the rate of fall overall in the provinces surrounding the NCR. Rizal and Cavite reversing to increases. Laguna and Batangas with much lower rates of decrease. Only Quezon province showing a higher rate of decrease.
For Luzon regions further away from the NCR Ilocos showed a reversal to a case increase, The CAR and Cagayan regions showed significant falls in the rate of case decrease.
Two peripheral Visayas regions, EV and MIMAROPA, showed case increases while its core regions,WV and CV , each had a lower rate of case fall.
But Mindanao regions seem detached from most others with accelerating case fall a present.

It will be interesting to see if these changes will be seen in forthcoming DOH and OCTA reports. Positivity is not being reported lately and test numbers have been falling.

The government have been warning of possible case increases due to relaxation of protocols and the return to school. But neither of these have had much effect yet.
They are also worried about vaccination levels, especially the slow uptake of boosters.

In the light of this here is an open letter to the President, published yesterday in The Inquirer from a group of "concerned citizens....".
From SS newsletter September 10, "Concerned citizens..."

https://supersally.substack.com/

Aiming to convince him not to extend the covid public health emergency here to the end of the year. He has said more than once that he will.
You will recognise some of the graphics from SS newsletters.

It's a bit fuzzy. The best I could do.









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Old Sep 11th 2022, 9:54 pm
  #1822  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Cases yesterday down by 935 at 2,230. Latest testing down about 2k to 16.8k.
Active 25,684, down 390

Location detail

NCR cases down by only 64 to 1,056. Which was a much higher than lately 47% of all cases. Cases in its 6 largest cities at 687 and a higher 65% of its cases. QC 234, Manila 180, Pasig 91, Paranaque 66, Taguig 61 and Caloocan 55.


Latest OCTA NCR report.

Region CL down at 161...Bulacan 72, Bataan 9, Pampanga 22.
Region 4A down slightly to 419...Cavite up a little to 157, Laguna down to 62, Rizal down a little to 123, Batangas likewise to 62.

These 3 regions up to 73% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR 26
Ilocos 43
Cagayan 34
Bicol well up to 60.

The Visayas down to 180...WV 95, CV 39.
Cebu City 15

Mindanao cases down to 239.
Davao region 72, Davao City 28.
SOCCSK region 75.

The DOH lady still pushing against removal of outdoor mask wearing:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ask-use/story/

Maybe seeing the NCR uptick and thinking this may sway the President. Of course the uptick has occurred while the current mask mandate is in place! This is a good test of BBM's decision making. He has said he will remove the outdoor mandate.

Davao City wants to make the decision after they see what happens elsewhere!

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/11/...until-december

Some people in Congress saying there isn't enough local decision making here and we need more devolution. Well, there certainly is if you are run by people from certain political dynasties.

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Old Sep 12th 2022, 10:26 pm
  #1823  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Lower weekend testing resulting in about 200 fewer cases to 2,038. Sunday testing dropped by nearly 4k to 13.0k.
Active 25,262, down 422

Location detail

NCR down by nearly 250 to 810 cases and a much lower 40% of all cases. The 6 biggest cities down by less..186. QC 151, Manila 109, Pasig 66, Taguig 64, Caloocan 59, Paranaque 52.

CL up by 34 to 195...Bulacan 80, Bataan 7, Pampanga 40
4A down about 80 to 341...Cavite 115, Rizal still high at 105, Laguna 59, Batangas 42.

These 3 regions with a lower 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

CAR 47...Baguio City 23.
Ilocos up 82 to 125. Catching up after the Marcos holiday there!
Cagayan 61
Bicol down 41 to 19

Visayas down slightly to 174 cases.
WV stable at 93
CV up 20 to 59
Cebu City 14
Bacolod, IloIlo, Tacloban cities all in low double figures.

Mindanao up slightly to 253 cases.
Davao region up 35 to 107 but Davao City 16.
CDO, GenSan, Iligan, Zamboanga Cities all in single figures.

The President removes the outdoor mask mandate by Executive Order:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ettings/story/

Will be strange at first as you get used to it. Will try it outside this morning.
Notice the reference again to the country's "Wall of Immunity". I wonder if they really believe that? There must be advice on the low protection against infection vaccination gives and that it wanes fairly quickly.





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Old Sep 13th 2022, 12:36 am
  #1824  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Does a PUV count as inside or outside?
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Old Sep 13th 2022, 12:38 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d
Does a PUV count as inside or outside?
Think mask mandate kept for all public transport.
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Old Sep 13th 2022, 2:10 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Raffin
Think mask mandate kept for all public transport.
Yes but what about your own car etc.
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Old Sep 13th 2022, 4:57 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Well it was confirmed by the PNP in 2021 that it was an offence to not be masked and have passengers, family or not. But you don't hear about it now. Checkpoints for covid are no longer operating. Nothing about it announced today so its still on the books, just not enforced. Or maybe only enforced if the police want to get a driver for something.

Btw very few maskless outside in the local street shopping area this,morning.

Last edited by Raffin; Sep 13th 2022 at 5:04 am.
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Old Sep 13th 2022, 9:57 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Do you remember those face shields that gradually faded away? Probably a similar gradual disappearance of face masks in open areas.
The DOH really has to get a grip on booster jabs. First and second booster numbers very poor uptake. I had my second booster four months ago!
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Old Sep 13th 2022, 9:43 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday nearly 500 fewer cases at 1,574. Latest testing on Monday up to 18.8k.
Active 24,502, down 760

Location detail

NCR down 145 to 665 cases. A slightly higher 42% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities with 431 and a higher 65% of its case total.
QC 158, Manila 103, Pasig 50, Taguig 43, Caloocan 40, Paranaque 37

CL down 37 to 158...Bulacan stable at 79, Bataan 9, Pampanga 29.
4A down 115 to 226...Cavite 88, Rizal down 44 to 61, Laguna 36, Batangas 32

These 3 regions with a slightly higher 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

CAR up 3 to 50...Baguio City 18
Ilocos down 70 to 55
Cagayan 28
Bicol 20

Visayas regions down 34 to 140...WV 70, CV 36
Cebu City again 14.

Mindanao regions down 43 to 210
Davao region down 45 to 62, SOCCSK stable with 46 cases.
Davao City 17.
Its other main cities all with single figures.

Philippine Omicron variants:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/13/...tions-detected

Seems BA.5 dominant.

As you can read in that ABS-CBN article at the end they give only a few details from the weekly DOH report. Which was not covered at all by GMA. Not on the DOH site yet either.

All we have is cases down 10% (-10%)
A higher figure than my 3% as the DOH included over 1k old cases the week before.
Deaths 300 (354)
The most important hospital data not out.

Latest neighbouring Asian countries case data from Worldometers.



Singapore not having an easy time:


Cases fell but lately stabilizing.



Deaths fell then a recent uptick. Spikes due to deaths not being announced daily.

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Old Sep 15th 2022, 11:32 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Catch up report as Wi Fi unfortunately off so have to use data and phone.
Misssed nearly all detailed data for the 14th. Though only a fairly low case count for that day.

For Sep 14

Cases announced 1,709
NCR 655, 38% of all cases.

For Sep 15
Cases announced 2.141
Tests.. individuals estimated as DOH only give sample number on the phone... approx 21.4k
Active 24,843, down 341 from Sep 13

Location detail

NCR 1,002, up 347 from 14th. A much higher share of 47% of national cases. In its 6 largest cities 624 cases, 62%. of NCR cases. QC 210, Manila 158, Pasig and Taguig each 74., Paranaque 61, Caloocan 47.

CL 195, equal high so far this week.
Bulacan 76. Bataan 5, Pampanga 26
4A 313..... Cavite 102, Rizal 97, Laguna 67, Batangas 35.

These 3 regions at 71% of national cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR 35 Baguio City 17
Ilocos 42
Cagayan 38
Bicol 15

Visayas cases 181, highest so far this week by 1.
WV 78, CV 53 cases.
Cebu City 20

Mindanao cases at iits highest this so far week at 306.
Noticesbly the Davao Region up to 129.
But Davao City had only 30.
Its other main cities in small double figures.

The late DOH weekly hospital data finally turned up
A little encouraging.

Serious and Critical
cases.

New cases 12 (40)
Admitted 727 (768)
ICUl beds 23.9% (23.5%)
Non ICU 28.2% (29.3%)

Two of the latest Dr John Videos worth a quick look.
One a couple of days ago on US CDC data on patients in hospital there who have been boostered once or twice being treated for covid. Over 40%.
The latest video a Lancet report on SARS 2 viral origins. The authord couldn't discount the lab leak theory.

Mask wearing

Going out and about where I live have only seen about 20% mask less on the streets.. Some may still not know about EO No 3. But even if masks do make a big difference to infection rates if worn outside it doesn't seem to me it will be a significant contributor over the next few weeks as most people, for various reasons, are keeping them on in public.
Some may have listened to the advice of one doctor to keep them on to guard against catching other infectious diseases. So maybe mask wearing in public will become almost uniquely permanent here fin the Philippines for many?


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