Raffin

Yesterday nearly 1.4k more new cases with 4,533 announced. Latest testing up only slightly to 24.8k.
Deaths 27
Active 37,692, up 1,909

Location detail

The NCR case number up by 126 to 1,226 and its national share down to a low 27%.
Its 6 largest cities with 781 cases which was a higher than usual 64% of cases. QC 302, Manila 159, Paranaque 113.

CL cases up to the highest level so far this week 521...Bulacan 155, Bataan 53, Pampanga 92.
4A cases also at its highest daily total so far this week with 960....Cavite 308, Laguna 266, Rizal 156, Batangas 137, Quezon 72.

These 3 regions with a lower 60% of all cases.

The Visayas regions with a high daily total of 618 cases..WV more than doubled its cases to 319, CV 189.
Cebu City 73, IloIlo City 78.

OCTA report on IloIlo:




Mindanao cases up by over 200 to 452...NM cases up over 70 to 131, Davao cases up by over 40 to 64.
Davao City 64, Zamboanga City 38.


Excess Deaths
Continuing the SS newlsetter analysis of Philippine regions:

Central Visayas


Average multiple x3.5. Lowest Cebu and Mandaue Cities. LapuLapu City has had only about 4k more infections than Mandaue City in the pandemic, yet it had 71.3% excess deaths in 2021 compared to Mandaue City's 40.0%.


Cebu City also had a 2020 peak in Excess Deaths due to covid 19. The IATF sent a a team there. Reported high vaccine hesitancy in 2021 could well be an explanation for the late peak.



Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities also with a 2020 covid 19 peak. Then similar delayed and high late 2021 peaks.

Note; the rapid fall in excess deaths late 2021 seen likely to being exaggerated due to still incomplete death data for late 2021.

Zamboanga Peninsula:


A 6x multiple for the region as a whole. Zamboanga and the small city of Isabela faring better at around 3x.


Zamboanga City with two peaks for 2021, typical for larger cities nationally so far in this Excess Deaths survey.

SS points out that Excess Death multiples seem usually to be larger in more remote provinces. This could be at least partly be explained by more under reporting of covid deaths in those areas and poorer treatment of serious adverse post vaccination. events

Raffin

Nearly 130 more cases reported than the day before at 4,661. Test levels seem to be stabilising at around 24-25k lately...the latest figure for the 11th 24.7k.
Deaths 28
Active 40,315, up 2,353

Location detail

NCR up by over 260 cases to have 1,489. A higher 32% of all cases. In its cities QC 327, Paranaque up 81 to 194, Manila 149, Taguig 132, Pasig 121, Caloocan 39. The 6 biggest cities with a high 65% of all NCR cases.

Both CL and 4A with slightly lower totals....510 and 949.
Bulacan 148, Pampanga 107.
Cavite 325, Laguna 287, Rizal 169, Batangas 107.

Elsewhere:

The CAR 158...Baguio City 82
Ilocos 202
Cagayan 210
Bicol 125

The Visayas regions had 530 cases..WV and CV both with 198 cases.
Cebu City 62, IloIlo City 46.

Mindanao up a little to 487 cases.
Increases in both Zamboanga and Davao. Up to 83 and 145.
Their main cities 49 and 103 cases.
Iligan City with an unusually high report of 20 cases.

More tables and charts from SS's region by region analysis of pandemic Excess Deaths here.
For further details and commentary go to:
https://supersally.substack.com/
for her free newsletter.
Eastern Visayas:


Some large multiples in this region, especially in Samar and Leyte. Overall 12x. Differences in data reporting likely to be a factor.


A steady increase in this region towards one peak in September 2021.

Northern Mindanao


Overall in this region a 9x multiple... with again a large variation.


With the timing of Excess Deaths two small peaks earlier in 2021 with a sharp increase from June to August.


The rise of Excess Deaths in CDO City, June to September 2021, a large one.

Raffin

A slight increase yesterday to the announced national total at 4,679. Latest test number for August 12 down 1k to 23.6k.
Deaths 48
Active 40,324, up 9 Recoveries 4.6k

Location detail

NCR down by about 100 to 1,386 and a low 30% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities with 826 of them....QC 280, Manila 170, Taguig 141.


OCTA not sure and have been forecasting an NCR peak is coming soon but looks to me like a gradual upward trend. 17.9% on August 11.

Elsewhere:

The CAR 239, highest this week. Baguio City 103.
Cagayan up to 289
Ilocos lower at 135.
Bicol up to 190, highest this week.

Visayas are up to 619, highest this week.
WV 295, CV 224. Cebu City 70, IloIlo City 67 cases.

The Mindanao total down slightly to 441.
Davao region up to 152.
Davao City 103, Zamboanga City 39, GenSan City 25 cases.

Weekly report later today.

Raffin

Weekly report

Nationally announced case growth last week fell to 6% (14%).

NCR case growth 5% 6%).

Taguig +42%
Paranaque 10
QC 4
Pasig 0
Caloocan -1%
Manila -4

Taguig City an outlier. It had a similar spurt in cases back in March this year.

Both regions CL and 4A with just about zero growth in their cases.

In CL Bulacan a 9% increase, Bataan fell by 18%, Pampanga down 2%
In 4A Cavite down 2%, Laguna no change, Rizal up 5%, Batangas down 14%, Quezon down 11%.

Elsewhere:

The CAR up 11%
Ilocos up 7%
Cagayan up 10%
Bicol up 13%

In the Visayas regions:

Overall up only 2% (18%)
WV up 2%
CV down 8%
Cebu and IloIlo Cities both down...by 16 and 8%.

In Mindanao:

Overall up 43% (24%)
Regionally Zamboanga up 54%, Davao 36%
Their main cities up 44% and 19%.
But CDO City down 15%.

So case growth seemingly moderating in the NCR, CL and Calabarzon.
Almost no case growth in the Visayas.
But high case growth in Mindanao, though small numbers and not much growth in many of its smaller cities.

However some caution is due to positivity levels, which remain stubbornly high in the NCR according to the latest OCTA data.
Waiting for an update from them for recent positivity in other areas.

Raffin

Yesterday about 500 fewer cases at 4,182. Test number lower on the 13th to 22.1k.
Deaths 44
Active 40.016, down 308

I thought it's about time for another look at the DOH cases and deaths charts. Both by date of occurrence.
Note: Trend lines show announced data.


Far fewer cases than the earlier Omicron wave. Notice the lag in reporting at the end of 2021.


Omicron deaths lagged reporting for early 2022. Delta deaths lagged in late 2021.

Recoveries:


Recovery reports from earlier this year also late to be reported and recorded.

Location detail:

NCR down about 100 to 1,290 and 31% of all cases. There were 761 cases from its 6 biggest cities. QC 263, Paranaque up 54 to 150, Manila 142.

Region CL 456 and Calabarzon 883 cases...similar numbers to the previous day.
Bulacan 132, Bataan 34, Pampanga 77.
Cavite 270, Laguna up 22 to 298, Rizal 157, Batangas, 100.

These 3 regions with 63% of all cases.

Visayas numbers down a lot to 388.
WV 185, CV 125.

Mindanao up 33 to 474 cases.
Zamboanga Pen up 37 to 95.
Zamboanga City 41, Davao City 102.

Raffin

Results yesterday mainly from weekend testing, which for the 14th fell to 16.1k individuals.
Cases announced 3,484.
Deaths 42
Active 38,982, down 1,034

Location detail

The NCR down by about 160 cases to 1,131 and a slightly higher 33% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 703 cases. QC 241, Manila 148, Paranaque 103, Taguig 94, Pasig 81.

Both the CL and 4A regions down somewhat to 404 and 717 cases.
Bulacan 121, Bataan 35, Pampanga 63.
Cavite 267, Laguna 201, Rizal and Batangas each with 106 cases.

These 3 regions with a higher 65% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

The CAR 106. Baguio City 38.
Ilocos 120
Cagayan up 51 to 253.

Visayas numbers up slightly to 398 cases.
WV up to 191, CV to 137.
Cebu City 44, IloIlo City 43.

Mindanao down by over 100 cases to 263.
CDO City 25, Davao City 54.

More regions in Mindanao having their excess deaths in 2021 analyzed by SS in relation to covid 19 deaths.
https://supersally.substack.com/

The Davao region:


Overall a 3.6 multiple with the more remote Davao del Sur province faring the worst.


The well defined September peak showing.

The SOCCSKSARGEN region:



A high overall multiple of 9 and 3 provinces with extremely high multiples.


Again a rise towards a single peak in September, coincident with the build up of vaccinations.


The worst province is Sarangani , with an overall 50x covid deaths.

SS may or may not present data for BARMM with its 26k cases so far in the pandemic. So SOCCSKSARGEN may be the final region.
To sum up...I cannot see any possible cause other than the vaccination roll out to account for her general results. Which are consistent in all areas of the country with only some differences due to vaccination roll out timing. In some areas data reporting issues may account for some of the high multiples but not in most and definitely not where it is x50!

So it seems to me we are left with looking to start with at whether vaccines here were substandard, wrongly stored, incorrectly administered or given to people who shouldn't have had them.
So maybe just a Philippines issue. Or is it a wider problem with the vaccines? The multiples are so large that could be. But where are similar studies and results in other countries? Not that I have seen so far, but it is early days.

DOH Weekly Report

Cases up 3% (13%)
Deaths 229 (80) 228 in 2022.
Severe and Critical:
New patients 101 (76)
Admitted 822 (772)
ICU 28% (25%). Non ICU 31% (31%)

Hospital utilization continues to gradually increase.

A note on 2022 deaths

The DOH reported 4,915 Jan - Apr 2022.
The PSA, who unlike the DOH liaise with LGU health authorities say there were 7,992 confirmed due to Covid and 2,534 assumed from covid.
So about twice as many. Consistent with the PSA's analysis of deaths here in 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-62547503

However annoying some of the restrictions are here at times think of what this must be like.

Gazza-d

I think you need to be careful relating death rate with vaccine rollout. During a surge more people will get vaccinated but also unrelated more poeple will die from covid.

Raffin

But generally all over the country increasing vaccine roll outs, both initial and after a pause, seem to be coincident with increasing excess deaths to a varying extent, that is deaths on top of those attributed to covid. Also Excess Deaths fall rapidly at the end of vaccine programs.
There was a large death spike in Cebu,163 deaths 18-22 Oct 2021, when thousands of prisoners were vaccinated. The deaths didn't occur at weekends, only on weekdays. Those vaccinations were carried out only on weekdays. That could have been caused by a bad batch of vaccine but the recent analysis of Excess Deaths nationwide during 2021 suggests the possibility of more general issues with covid vaccines.

Raffin

Cases announced yesterday were down by over 800 to 2,633. Testing on the 15th rose to 21.5k.
Deaths 49
Active 36,190, down 2,792 with 5.4k recoveries.

Location detail

The NCR with nearly 300 fewer cases than the day before at 846 and a slightly lower 32% of all cases. Two thirds of them from its 6 biggest cities. QC 199, Manila 121, Pasig 72, Taguig 69, Paranaque 63, Caloocan 36.


Downward trending from the start of last week.

CL with about 70 less cases but 4A had over 230 less at 335 and 483.
Bulacan 129, Bataan 37, Pampanga 58.
Cavite 200, Laguna 110, Rizal 98, Batangas 62 cases.

These 3 regions with a slightly lower 63% of all cases.

The Visayas area regions down by over 100 to 270.
WV with nearly 100 fewer cases at 93, CV number stable at 135.
Cebu City at 52, Bacolod City at 24, IloIlo City much lower with 14.

Mindanao cases were up by nearly 50 at 312.
Davao 81, NM 75, Zamboanga 68.
Davao City 61, CDO City 27, Zamboanga City 66.

Omicron variants here. BA.5 dominating samples:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...b90bd2a5c2417e

Some neighbouring countries ordered by new cases yesterday.
Source: Worldometers.


Total and new cases yesterday.




Japan cases.


Japan deaths.


S Korea cases.


Malaysian cases.

Taiwan, Singapore case downward trend.
Indonesia and HK moderate upward trend
Vietnam cases stable and low.

Raffin

Yesterday 2,892 new cases announced. Latest daily testing number up to 24.8k individuals.
Deaths 46.. Every day this week so far above 40.
Active 35,101, down 1,089

Location detail

The NCR number stable at 845. But 30 fewer cases in its 6 most populous cities at 530. QC 202, Manila 107, Paranaque 75.

Region CL up a little to 357, 4A also to 500.
Bulacan 94, Bataan 22, Pampanga 57.
Cavite 145, Laguna 145, Rizal 95, Batangas 70, Rizal 95

These 3 regions with 59% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

The CAR up to 154. Baguio City 78.
ILocos up to 144
Cagayan 81

Visayas up to 367.
IloIlo City up to 44. Cebu City 34.

Mindanao also up, but slightly, to 347.
Davao City up to 74.

https://supersally.substack.com/


I did not show any charts for the Caraga region. They were in line with her general results with an overall 4.6 multiple and the usual high September peak.
As it was she did look at BARMM, despite its low covid infection rate and vaccination rate. About 30% fully vaccinated now. A campaign has been launched to convince residents the vaccines are halal, but this has not been very effective so far. Despite that a smaller September peak can be seen:
Large multiples for Maguindinao and huge ones for Sulu and especially for Tawi-Tawi. Though they have small numbers and therefore highly variable data.



Unlike other regions BARMM had Excess Deaths 23% above Expected Deaths in 2020. Unclear why this was.
In 2021 they were a very high 91% above expected deaths. Obviously something else other than vaccination was going on in 2020 and 2021 to cause these high deaths. The severity of the pandemic lockdown restrictions there are a possible explanation.

Raffin

As usual Thursday new cases increase greatly. Yesterday by getting on for 900. Latest test number slightly lower at 24.4k individuals.
Deaths 48
Note: The DOH does not have a good record with death statistics and given that their latest figures, resumed after a period of many weeks, now say that for the fifth day in a row the numbers are in the 40s, you unfortunately have to ask if there is "data management" going on here? By that I mean releasing a backlog gradually so not to raise questions. They have given out the timing of deaths on a weekly basis a couple of times only.

Location detail

The NCR up by over 250 cases to 1,098. But maintaining 29% of all cases. About two thirds were from its 6 largest cities.......QC 282, Manila 126, Taguig 114, Paranaque 110.

The latest OCTA NCR report:


Region CL up by about 50 cases.
Bulacan up to 114, Bataan 40, Pampanga up to 92.
4A added 131 to 631 cases.
Cavite up to 198, Laguna to 180, Rizal to 108, Batangas to 77.

These 3 regions with a lower 57% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR 190.
Ilocos 163
Cagayan up 95 to 176.

Visayas numbers up by about 90 to 459.
WV 202
CV up 95 to 195.
Cebu City 67, IloIlo City 32, Tacloban City 7

Latest OCTA report on Cebu City:





Mindanao cases up by about 200 to 545.
The Zamboanga, NM and Davao regions all showing big increases over the previous day.
Davao City up 41 to 115, CDO City up 20 to 37, Zamboanga City up 16 to 50.

Dr J's latest video:



Note: Myopericarditis can account for up to 20% of all young adult sudden deaths. according to a 2007 article from the Royal Brompton Hospital in London.

Above is the conclusion of a Thai study of 301 male adolescents. Thought to be the first to follow up the covid vaccinated for any potentially serious after effect! Just under 30% had some cardiac related after effects following Pfizer mRNA covid vaccination. The great majority were mild but one had myopericarditis and 2 were suspected to have it. Four were subclinical.

What monitoring of this has gone on here?

Raffin

New cases announced yesterday just 10 fewer at 3,748. The latest test number was down by 1.4k to 23k individuals.
Deaths 40...another day of managed release 40-49!
Active 37,225, up 1,110

Location detail

The NCR up slightly at 1,114 and to 30% of all cases. The contribution of its 6 largest cities fell by 38 to 689. QC 265, Manila up to 153, Paranaque 98, Pasig up to 85.

CL up 25 to 427 with Bulacan 119, Bataan 47, Pampanga 71.
4A was up 45 to 676 with .Cavite up to 219, Laguna to 207, Rizal up 42 to 150.

These three regions contributing a higher 59% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR down to 69
Ilocos up 38 to 201
Cagayan up 42 to 427
Bicol up 24 to 117

Visayas cases down slightly to 446.
WV down slightly to 195, CV down by 72 to 123.
EV up 35 to 59.

Mindanao cases down 65 to 480.
Davao City down to 85.

The DOH acting Secretary with a fair review of the latest covid wave here:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/19/...pt-in-mindanao

Although nothing said about the low testing level.
Also note that she says deaths in August have so far averaged 9 per day. So each day 30+ are coming from backlog.

More on Philippine Excess Deaths from the latest of SS's frequent newsletters.
https://supersally.substack.com/

She provides this summary table for all regions:


For the country a 37% increase over expected deaths in 2021.
Taking into account population size the worst results from the Cagayan Valley, the NCR, the CAR, CV, WV and Davao regions, in descending order.
So far SS has only published results for one city in the NCR......Pasig. So it would be interesting to see results from the others.


Excess deaths for the Philippines through time. Pronounced September 2021 peak, a feature also showing in most of SS's regional time charts. An earlier smaller peak also showing, again seen in many regional charts.

Of interest is this table showing how slow the birth and death data recording process is here. Although it may be being further slowed as a result of the effects of the pandemic even now in 2022?



With births there was a significant fall in 2021. Contrary to forecasts that lockdown would increase them. Some have blamed vaccination for that. So interesting that according to SS January 2022 births are 6% higher than in January 2021. Though should we worry too much about that in this crowded country?

SS also says that January 2022 deaths were 17.3% higher than forecast, 19.2% higher than January 2021. Obviously some of these were as a result of people catching Covid variants other than Omicron.

The other side of vaccination....


Dr J in his latest video cites this peer reviewed paper from The Lancet estimating the worldwide reduction in deaths from vaccination. The Excess Death estimate usually preferred, somewhat higher at 19.8M. The Worldometers coid deaths tally this morning just below 6.5M.

Also in that video he looks at the latest UK advice from its vaccine panel on who should receive a further booster. More targeted than previously:



This can be seen as not relevant here where the government is trying hard to increase the uptake of a first booster. Of course the UK panel will not say anything about its past advice being at all inappropriate! But recent data has shown the ineffectiveness of vaccines with Omicron transmission, though less but still reasonably effective at preventing serious illness and death. So I think late booster countries should still review their vaccine policies and just target those groups at most risk. Especially given the risks of vaccination.

Only children 5 years plus in clinical risk advised now in the UK. Contrast with the Philippines, where general childhood vaccination is being pushed as face to face classes are soon resuming.

The "Pinaslakas" camapaign was launched last month:

https://doh.gov.ph/press-release/DOH...CCINE_CAMPAIGN

Notice a repetition of the phrase "wall of immunity". Despite the many studies that have been published on the high transmission ability through immune escape of Omicron BA.5. The Philippines already has a "wall of immunity" with its young population and higher adherence to protocols.
The Presdent himself caught covid again even after being boostered once and has now received a a second booster.
Then just yesterday the Senate was closed until Monday after several Senators caught covid. It will be disinfected but that will achieve nothing. More mask wearing might though.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/19/...-19-infections.

Dr] John in his latest video reviews the safety data on a new Moderna based vaccine against Omicron and some previous variants. It will be interesting to see whether it is bought next year by countries like the Philippines. Probably not for budgetary reasons, but I think by then it will also be thought unnecessary here, even by the DOH.

Raffin

The third day running with a national total in the 3,700s. There were 3,715 new cases. Latest testing down again. By 0.9k to 22.1k.
Deaths 47. Not useful for me to show daily deaths here again as the DOH are just putting out a past backlog daily in similar sized numbers.
Active 36,146, down 1.079

Location detail:

NCR up by 71 to 1,185 and a higher 32% of all cases.The share of its 6 largest cities up to 64% of the NCR total. QC 269, Manila 145, Taguig up to 127, Paranaque and Pasig both 83 cases.

The latest NCR OCTA report:




CL down 38 to 389, 4A down 18 to 658.
Bulacan 155, Bataan 46, Pampanga 76.
Cavite 229, Laguna 188, Rizal 121.

These 3 regions at a higher 61% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up to 181. Baguio City 76.
Cagayan 179
Ilocos 92
Bicol 87

The Visayas total up to 488 cases.
WV up 44 to 239.
CV up 46 to 169.
Cebu City 57.

Mindanao down 24 to 456 cases.
NM up 27 to 108.
Davao up 26 to 157.
CDO City 46, Davao City 100.

Some changes to Alert Levels here;

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=1

Dr John in his latest video presenting ONS data on recent UK Excess Deaths:


Deaths there in the weeks back to June.
Covid deaths in blue, black line expected deaths.
Excess Deaths the green area above the black line were expected to be falling by now.

UK deaths in the week to August 5 at 12,126, 13.9% above the 5 year average.But covid deaths in that week down to 6.5% from 7.3% in the previous week.

Speculation about vaccine related deaths here but the ONS say there have been very few in the UK:


10 from covid vaccination.

But Dr John looks at the reports from 3 vaccine manufacturers given in response to a FOI request:







Over 2,000 deaths in total, one which relies on them being reported. But not just coincident. Some evidence that the UK Adverse Reactions Reporting system itself has been worried for a number of years about under reporting. Seemingly there is no evidence of the timing of deaths in relation to prior vaccination, whether in individual cases or roll outs, as we have seen here from SS.

Weekly report coming later.

Raffin

Yesterday 72 fewer cases at 3,643. Latest testing down on Saturday to 19.5k.
Active 35,271,down 875

Location detail:

The NCR with a few less cases at 1,167 and maintaining 32% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 747 cases...QC 251, Manila 130, Taguig 121, Paranaque 114 cases.

CL up a little to 411. Bulacan 144, Bataan 25, Pampanga 64 cases.
4A similarly down to 629. Cavite 264, Laguna 129, Rizal 124 cases.

These 3 regions again with 61% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up to 232.
Baguio City up 33 to 109 cases.
Ilocos up 40 to 132.
Cagayan down to 148.
Bicol up to 102.

The Visayas region up 82 to 570.
But WV and CV were both down with WV down by over 100 to 126.
Cebu City 46.

Mindanao cases down by only 4 to 452.
Davao region nearly the same at 156.
Davao City down to 71 cases.

Weekly report to August 20.
Last week's % change in brackets.

National cases were down 14% (+6%).

NCR cases down by 17% (+5%)

For its 6 biggest cities;

Taguig -34%
Pasig -23%
Paranaque -14%
QC -13%
Manila -8%
Caloocan 0%

CL region cases were down by 9% but 4A cases were down more by 21%.

In CL:
Bulacan -2%
Bataan -50%
Pampanga -24%

A surprisingly small fall in Bulacan.

In 4A:

Cavite -22%
Laguna -24%
Rizal -22%
Batangas -10%
Quezon -23%

Apart from Batangas consistent falls in 4A by over 20%.

Elsewhere in Luzon:

The CAR -14%
Ilocos -12%
Cagayan -6%
Bicol -15%

The Visayas region down by 19% (+2%).
WV down 15%, CV down 22%.
Cebu City down by 28%.

Mindanao regions up moderately by 10% (+43%)
Davao City cases up 13%.
Zamboanga City cases up 23%.

Raffin

Lower weekend testing and cases down to 3,077. Testing on Sunday low at 13.9k.
Active 33,774, down 1,479

Location detail

The NCR with just one more case at 1,168. From its 6 biggest cities 713 cases. QC 275, Manila 141, Pasig 109, Paranaque 87, Taguig 65.

Region CL down to 265, 4A to 527.
Bulacan 96, Bataan 24, Pampanga 46.
Cavite down 87 to 177, Laguna down by only 3 to 126, Rizal 106, Batangas up 33 to 93.

These 3 regions up to 64% of all cases.

The CAR down by over 170 to 58.
Ilocos down 56 to 76
Cagayan up by 59 to 207.
Bicol down 77 to 75

The Visayas regions up 8 to 378.
WV up 33 to 154. CV up slightly to 154.

Mindanao regions down by 133 to 319. All regions except Caraga down.
Caraga up 21 to 76.
Davao City 53.