Raffin

Cases yesterday up to 4,127 and latest test numbers up 1,3k to 24.2k on Thursday.
Deaths 14
Active 32,637, up 2,740

Location detail

The NCR up by over 150 to 1,380 cases. That's one third of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with over 180 more cases at 854. QC up by nearly 100 at 320, Manila 155, Pasig 116, Paranaque 111, Taguig 104.

NCR positivity up to 14.6% on July 27, OCTA says.

CL up about 50 to 464...Bataan 133, Bulacan 109, Pampanga 128.
4A up about 100 to 1002...laguna up to 292, Cavite 327, Rizal 178, Batangas 133, Quezon up 21 to 55.

The CAR up about 50 to 121. Baguio City 63...highest so far this week.

Visayas numbers up by about 60 to 509.
WV up about 30 to 265, CV by about 50 to 248.
Cebu City 98, IloIlo City 68, Bacold City 28.

Mindanao down a little to 268.
Davao region 90, Davao City 75.
Otherwise small numbers continue in its other major cities.

Philippines first booster data by priority group.
From the HTAC.

"As of 20 June 2022, the uptake of first booster doses is the following for the different priority groups: 53.23% for A1, 32.93% for EA1, 25.63% for A2, 26.09% for A3, 3.99% for EA3, 18.52% for A4, 10.52% for A5, and 21.49% for the rest of the adult population".

Over a month ago but probably not much higher now. A2 (Seniors) only a quarter, Comorbidities (A3) a low percentage. Indigents A5 only about 10%.
What the E stands for I can't find out!

The same body defending itself against accusations of causing vaccine wastage:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...rollout/story/

Bealinehx

A quick note on booster uptake. I'm in category A2. When I went for my first booster there were short queues. When I went for my second booster in May there were no queues, Lack of publicity, a general air of complacency and more attention given to the general election are possibly contributing factors.

Raffin

Over 100 fewer cases announced yesterday at 3,996. Test numbers fell too on the 29th by 1.7k to 2.5k.
Deaths 1
Active 33,509, up by 872.

Location detail

The NCR up slightly at 1,399. Its 6 largest cities providing 924 cases, a higher 66% share. QC 277, Manila 155, Taguig 147, Paranaque 123, Pasig 106 cases.

CL cases down a little to 442. Bataan 132, Bulacan 126.
4A cases down by about 100 to 905....Cavite 319, Laguna 259, Rizal 141, Batangas 132.

These 3 regions with 69% of all cases.

The CAR up at 176. Baguio City up at 93 cases.
Ilocos up at 160 cases.

Visayas cases down to 414. Its main cities all down.

Mindanao cases also down to 252.
Davao region at 100, Davao City 79. CDO City 30.

Weekly report later today.

Raffin

Weekly update:

Last week's % change in brackets.

The national total last week rose by 27% (31%).

For the NCR an 18% increase (35%)

For its 6 biggest cities:

Paranaque 29% (13%)
Caloocan 26 (39)
Manila 15 (17)
QC 13 (35)
Pasig 12 (31)
Taguig 10 (31)

CL 18% (53%)....Bulacan 12% (29%), Pampanga 15% (87%),.
4A 26% (33%)...Cavite 22% (39%), Laguna 31% (43%), Rizal 19% (69%), Batangas 17% (42%)

Other N Luzon regions:

The CAR had 693 cases and a 64% increase.. Baguio City up 34%.
Ilocos 813 cases and a 51% increase (11%)
Cagayan 778 cases and a 55% increase (72%)

For the Visayas a 24% increase (16%) ....WV 16%. (-4%), CV 31% (40%)
Cebu City 13% (47%), Bacold City up 38%, IloIlo City.no change

Mindanao 36% (61%).
CDO City 69% (30%), Davao City 45% (19%), Zamboanga City 81% .
But cases only 152, 353 and 132 respectively.

So a case slowdown last week in the NCR and its surrounding provinces.
But fast case growth in the CAR, Ilocos and Cagayan Valley.

Slightly faster case growth in the WV region of the Visayas. 1,246 cases there last week.
Mindanao case growth lower and its numbers still small.
However some case growth seen in its main cities.

Raffin

Yesterday a slightly higher national total at 4,159 while individual testing at the end of last week actually fell by 2.2k to 20.3k.
Deaths 8
Active 33,622, up 113

Location detail

The NCR total fell by 97 and was a much lower 31% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities had a much lower 770 cases. QC 277, Manila 170, Paranaque and Pasig both 107 cases.

Regions CL and 4A were both up moderately to 514 and 970.
Bataan 135, Pampanga 130 and Bulacan 125.
Cavite 316, Laguna 307, Rizal 190, Batangas 135.

Ilocos up 16 to 176.
Bicol 101

In the Visayas over 150 more cases were reported at 578.
WV up to 260, CV up to 240.
Cebu City 131 cases.

Mindanao cases were also up by over 150 to 413.
Zamboanga Pen. 44, NM 94. Caraga 50 cases.
But no large rises in its cities.

Latest OCTA positivity report:


Testing generally not keeping up with the rise in positivity.

Raffin

About 600 fewer cases after lower Saturday testing at 3,553. Latest test numbers really low on Sunday at 14.5k.
Deaths 10
Active 34,268, up 646

Location detail

NCR down by over 100 to 1,185. Its 6 largest cities down by only 16 to 754. QC 268, Manila 155, Paranaque up 4 to 111.
The NCR maintaining a lower share of the national total at 33%.

Region CL down by about 200 to 317...Bulacan 108, Bataan 42, Pampanga 65
4A down 265 to 705 Cavite 228, Laguna 184, Rizal 118, Batangas 95, Quezon up 37 to 55.
Note: That is 25 less than the 4A total. Reason: the DOH strangely doesn't include Lucena City in region 4A, Population about 300,00! It had 25 cases yesterday.

These 3 regions with 42% of national cases.

Noteworthy: The CAR a big increase to 215. Baguio City 117 cases.
Also: Cagayan Valley up 72 to 192.

Visayas numbers down 81 to 497.
WV 226, CV 212.
Cebu City 92, IloIlo City 66.

Mindanao much lower at 221
Davao City 57

DOH Weekly report

Cases up 24%
For my week it was 33%.

Deaths 44 (4 only in 2022).

Severe and Critical:
New patients 76 (56)
Admitted 744 (666)

ICU 23.3% (21.7%)
Non ICU 29.5% (26.0%)


Latest ZOE covid symptoms list from latest Omicron variant infections. Interesting: fever now down to 13%

Raffin

Low Sunday testing produced a lower 2,646 new cases. Monday testing back up to recent levels of just over 20k at 21.5k individuals.
Deaths 12
Active 32,099, down 2,169 A splurge of recoveries applied.

Location detail

The NCR with a lower 998 cases. But these were a higher 38% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities had 692 of them. QC 234, Manila 134, Paranaque 91, Pasig 88.
Regions CL and 4A both had lower reports 283 and 600.
Bulacan 92, Bataan 49, Pampanga 63.
Cavite 276, Laguna 124, Rizal 94, Batangas 77.

These 3 regions with a much higher 71% of all cases.

The Visayas had a much lower 290 cases..WV 105, CV 156.
Mindanao was also well down, to 148.


Higher hospital utilization over the last week of July generally in these selected areas, especially those in the Visayas.

The latest situation in two of our neighbouring Asian countries
Data from Worldometer.


Japan cases.


Japan deaths.


Singapore cases.


Singapore deaths.

Raffin

Yesterday cases increased to 3,047. The most recent test number was up to 24.9k individuals on the 2nd.
Deaths 13
Active 31,992, down 107

Location detail

The NCR up a little at 1,011. Its 6 largest cities with 584 cases...QC 231, Manila 109, Pasig 79, Taguig 78, Paranaque 65.
At 58% a lower than usual share of total NCR cases.

CL up by about 40 to 322...Bulacan 82, Pampanga 64, Bataan 57.
4A down by about 50 to 552....Cavite 179, Laguna 171.

The CAR up to 130. Baguio City 67.
Cagayan Valley to 162.
Ilocos 98

The Visayas regions up to 451. WV up by nearly 140 to 242. CV down a little to 149.
Cebu City 49, IloIlo City 73.

In Mindanao cases increased by nearly 100 to 243.
CDO City 40, Davao City 52

The author of these newsletters:

https://supersally.substack.com/

is currently working on Philippines Excess Death estimates for cities and regions here for 2020 and 2021.

So far one report on Pasig City, which in 2020 had 538 excess deaths with 396 of them due to covid. But in 2021 1,308 excess deaths with 589 of them due to covid:


As you can see 2021 has two distinct time periods where excess deaths rise significantly. Coincidental with vaccine roll outs.

and one on the Ilocos region:


For the region as a whole excess deaths were over 8 times greater than covid deaths. Pangasinan with a much higher multiple. Again indications that this could be linked to vaccination roll out.

Raffin

Nearly 50% more cases announced yesterday at 4,439. While the latest test number for the 3rd was down slightly to 23.2k. The DOH no longer make it easy to keep track of backlogs but they might explain the size of yesterday's increase.
Deaths 11
Active 34,213, up 2221

Location detail

The NCR with over 400 more cases at 1,428 and 32% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 864 of them..QC 311, Manila 157, Paranaque 133, Taguig 126, Pasig 95 cases.

CL well up to 569 and 4A also had a large increase to 845 cases.
Bulacan 131, Bataan 75, Pampanga 164.
Cavite 216, Laguna 285, Rizal, 161, Batangas 134, Quezon 40, cases.

These 3 regions with 64% of all cases.

Also in N Luzon:

The CAR 168...Baguio City 93.
Ilocos well up to 232
Cagayan Valley also to 240.

The Visayas added nearly 100 more to 548 mainly due to an increase of 66 in CV.
Cebu City 72.
WV cases actually fell a little to 236.

Mindanao cases increased by 40 to 281.
The Davao region to 83. Davao City 55.


Signs of improvement in reported case growth, hospital utilization not yet reaching even moderate levels. But the positivity number indicates testing not enough whether due to availability or lack of demand.

Raffin

Yesterday 261 more cases than the day before announced at 4,701. Latest testing at the same level at 23.3k individuals.
Deaths 1
Active 37,189, up 2,976

Location detail:

Yesterday regions 4A and Mindanao with big increases.

The NCR down 83 to 1,345. Its 6 largest cities down by only 33 to 831. QC 278, Manila 188, Pasig 118, Paranaque 110, Taguig 97.
CL also down, by 71, to 498...Bulacan 106, Bataan 53, Pampanga 122.
But region 4A up by over 300 to 1,153. Cavite up by over 200 to 423, Laguna up to 348, Rizal to 182, Batangas down to 108, Quezon up to 65.

These 3 region's share of national cases was maintained at 64%.

Visayan cases up about 80 to 624.....WV up to 274, CV to 225. MIMAROPA 87.
Cebu City 82, IloIlo City 64.

Mindanao case numbers up by about 150 to 435.
NM up 43 to 11, Davao up by about 70 to 151.
CDO City 37, Davao City 105, Zamboanga City 29. All these cities up significantly.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...k-wearers.aspx

Thirteen studies subject to review and meta analysis. The conclusion is that they work well.

Although some experts predict that long covid will be a lot less serious from Omicro variants it would be best to be cautious as there seems to be such a thing as "permanent" long covid, though for a small minority. Some University of London findings recently reviewed by Dr John:


Three broad classes of symptoms.



The Kings College researchers did not say anything about prior infection, but maybe that would be the same?

Raffin

About 370 fewer national cases announced yesterday, at 4,328. Test levels have been stable over the last few days at just over 20k a day. The latest number for the 5th fell a little to 22.4k.
Deaths 15
Active 37,344, up 155

Location detail

The NCR down a little to 1,334 and 31% of all cases.Its 6 biggest cities with 797 cases...QC 297, Manila 151, Paranaque 105, Pasig and Taguig each 99.
The CL region with about 50 more cases at 552...Bulacan 163, Bataan 68, Pampanga 126.
Region 4A was down by nearly 200 to 968...Cavite 304, Laguna 311, Rizal 168, Batangas 108.

These three regions with 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon:

The CAR up to 196. Baguio City 95
Ilocos 145
Cagayan Valley 207
Bicol 119

The Visayas total was much lower at 467.
Likewise,the Mindanao total went down, by nearly 100 to 339
CDO City 40, Davao City 54, Zamboanga City up to 37, the highest this week.

More on Long Covid from Dr John:


He's optimistic that Omicron BA.5 will be the last dominant variant this year. But nearly 2M people in the UK estimated to have Long Covid symptoms from previous infections..Though infection rates have been lower here we must also have many people suffering from it. The DOH think only in the hundreds of thousands. But no action about the issue coming from them.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/153996...long-covid-doh

https://mb.com.ph/2022/05/22/doh-no-...se-long-covid/

Weekly report later today.

Raffin

Weekly update
Last week's % changes in brackets.:

National case growth up a lower 14% (27%)

NCR cases up 6% (18%)

For the 6 largest cities

Manila up 15%
QC 13
Caloocan 10
Pasig 4
Paranaque 3
Taguig down 7%

Manila and QC with the same percentage increase as last week. The other cities with big reductions.

CL up 4% (18%)...Bulacan 25% (12%), Pampanga 0% (15%), Bataan 6%.
4A 4% (26%)...Cavite 2% (22%), Laguna 14% (31%), Rizal 2% (19%), Batangas 6% (17%)

Other N Luzon regions:

The CAR up 45%, IIocos 33%, Cagayan Valley 59%.
Baguio City 48%.
All 3 regions with over 1,000 cases.
But Cagayan Valley's rate of case growth increased slightly.

Bicol in S Luzon up 33%. (51%) 655 cases.

Visayas cases up 18% (24%). Cebu City up 15% (13%), IloIlo City 0%.
Mindanao cases up 24% (36%)
CDO City up 43% but thgat was an improvement.
Davao City 24% (45%)

A general significant slowdown in case increase in the NCR and its adjacent regions.
Some slowdown in two of the 3 other N Luzon regions but a high rate of case growth..
Less of a slowdown in the Visayas.
Mindanao case growth significantly slower.

Raffin

Yesterday about 300 more cases nationally to record 4,621. Latest test number down slightly to 22.1k.
OCTA positivity July 31 to August 6 up to 18.7% from 16.5% the previous week.

Deaths 18
Active 37,805, up 461

The NCR up at 1,530 and 33% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with a much higher 947 of them. QC 287, Taguig 202, Manila 157, Paranaque 121, Pasig 127, Caloocan 53.

CL down a little to 534, 4A also down to 905.
Bulacan 130, Pampanga 115, Bataan 67.
Cavite 289, Laguna 264, Rizal 174, Batangas 109.

These 3 regions with 64% of all cases.

The Visayas with about 130 more cases at 596.
WV up 64 to 294.
Cebu City 78, IloIlo City 63.

Mindanao with 496 cases.
Zamobanga up to 73, Davao up greatly to 172.
Their biggest cities 38 and 106 cases.

On Philippine Excess Deaths more analysis in these latest newsletters;

https://supersally.substack.com/

All NCR cities are looked at in detail:


A large range in the important multiplier in the final column for the cities of the NCR.
Note: Pateros is not a city, very small population and best not included with the other 16 cities for comparisons.

As far as the timing of excess deaths during 2021 there is a similar pattern for all cities related to vaccine roll out timing..

The NCR chart:


Two phases of increase coincident with vaccine roll outs.

There are some differences between the cities but most follow this pattern.
For example, here are the charts for the NCRs 3 biggest cities:


QC: Two distinct phases of increase in 2021.



Manila similar although less of an increase later in 2021.


Caloocan similar to QC.

For the 3 next largest cities both Paranaque and Pasig follow the general pattern. Taguig differs in not having a distinct first increase phase.

The same exercise is done for the CAR with similar looking charts.
For example:


Baguio City with 3 increase phases. The 3rd much higher. Although overall for 2021 its multiplier only 1.02.

This data showing coincidence between excess deaths excluding those from covid 19 and vaccination roll out dates has been coming out in these newsletters for some time now and surely is known to those in the DOH. They are unlikely to do anything. Whether Senators will I think is also unlikely given its current political composition.

Raffin

Yesterday over 400 fewer cases at 4,203. Sunday's testing went down to 14.1k so tomorrow's total should be lower still.
Deaths 30
Active 37,942, up 137.

Location detail

NCR at 1,452 and a higher 35% of all cases. For the 6 largest cities 890 cases or 61% of the total. QC up to 314, Taguig 187, Manila 166, Paranaque 100, Pasig 90.

CL and 4A regions both down....421 and 819.
Bulacan 136, Bataan 60, Pampanga 89.
Cavite 248, Laguna 274, Rizal 166, Batangas 94

Visayas numbers down by over 100 to 488.
WV down to 186 but CV up 31 to 223.
Cebu City up to 85.

Mindanao down to 352.
All of its regions down.
Davao City down to 70. CDO City up to 27.

The weekly DOH report is not out yet.
Will summarize it tomorrow.

OCTA Positivity update:


For selected areas of Luzon over the week to last Saturday.


Selected Visayas and Mindanao areas.

Some very high rates seen but case numbers not reflecting that. Probably a combination of less testing availability and more so, less willingness to get tested.

Excess Deaths

A continuation of results from the SS newsletter.
For the highly populated Calabarzon (4A) region.


Large multipliers in the final column for all 4A provinces.

Charts of Excess Deaths through each year by province


1 Cavite Total pandemic cases so far : 227k



2. Laguna: 171k cases




3. Rizal 147k cases




4. Batangas 97k cases




5. Quezon (not including Lucena City 10k cases) 23k cases



The coincidence with vaccine roll out dates clearly shown for each province.
Quezon's initial roll out a month later in 2021.
Laguna and Quezon provinces showing a single late 2021 peak rather than the usual fall in May/June.
Cavite showing a level second peak of excess deaths.
Important to note that death data for the final quarter of 2021 is presently incomplete.

Raffin

Internet outtage for most of yesterday...

Summary for the 9th August:

Cases: 2,618
Deaths 27
Latest tests: 22.3k

NCR 828 and 32% Its 6 largest cities: 517, QC 254, Manila 90.
CL 256
4A 644
3 regions: 66%
Visayas 373
Mindanao 185

Yesterday 3,181 cases and latest testing up somewhat to 24.6k.
Deaths 25
Death numbers increasing lately but no information on timing of them.
Active: 36,053, down 613

Location detail:

NCR up to 1,100 and 35% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities 695 with QC up to 254, Manila 136, Paranaque 104.

Region CL up by about 100 to 354...Bulacan 113, Pampanga 92, Bataan 49.
4A about the same at 641..Cavite 238, Laguna constant at 185, Rizal 128.

These 3 regions maintained 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere the CAR 159....Baguio City up to 96.
Ilocos 162
Cagayan 152
Bicol 76

Visayas numbers down 70 to 303..WV 144, CV 114.
Mindanao up by about 50 to 234
Cebu City 47, Davao City 41.

DOH weekly report:

Cases up 13% (24%)
Deaths 80 (44)
Severe and Critical:
+76 (+76)
Admitted: 772 (744)

ICU 24.8% (23.3%)
Non ICU 30.9% (29.5%)

Hospital data showing a small increase in utilization.
Case increase moderating...always bearing in mind that under reporting must be even larger than in previous waves.

Latest OCTA report on NCR cases;

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...51d42cd508dde9

Moves seem to be underway to update the definition of fully vaccinated:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/10/...lly-vaccinated

Continuing the SS Newsletter's analysis of Excess Deaths by region:

For MIMAROPA:


Overall a multiple of 5x deaths due to covid 19. They started later than in the Luzon regions and all provinces had one big peak in September and October 2021.

For the Bicol Region:


A large multiple of 12 and very large multiples for Canarines Norte and the two islands. Mostly two clearly defined peaks but the second one later in 2021 is much larger.

For the WV region:


Average multiple of 3.7. High multiples in Negros Occidental and Antique. Its provinces presenting a similar time pattern to MIMAROPA, with Excess Deaths rising to a single peak later in the year.

As shown for the whole region:




Of interest are the time lines for its two main cities;


Excess deaths rising early from March 2021 and stabilising at a high level from June to October.
Vaccination started in March.



Whereas Bacolod City's Excess Deaths peaked later and its vaccination roll out was slow to start. The main supplies, AZ brand, arriving in May.