NCR llockdown

Old Jul 10th 2022, 10:52 pm
  #1741  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday nearly 200 more cases but the latest test number fell by over 3k to 18.8k.

The OCTA group have picked this issue up:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ta-says/story/

Deaths 1
Active 13,818, up 797
OCTA positivity July 3-9: 9.6%

Location detail

The NCR had 838 cases and a lower 42% of all cases. From its 6 biggest cities 478.
QC 160, Manila 101, Paranaque 82

CL up 63 at 222. Bulacan 62, Pampanga 49.
4A up 53 at 424. Cavite 135, Laguna up 37 to 122, Rizal 90, Batangas 66.

Visayas with WV up 46 to 194. CV up 31 to 91.
Cebu City 43, IloIlo City 74...both up by about 20 cases.

Mindanao cases up 16 to 89.
Davao City 26....otherwise continuing small main city numbers.
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Old Jul 11th 2022, 10:27 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Low weekend testing at 15.2k gave the over 300 fewer cases announced yesterday at 1,660.
Active 14,218, up 400.

Location detail:

All regions except Zamboanga Pen. reported fewer case numbers.

NCR 769 and up in national share at 46%. Its 6 biggest cities with only 8 less cases at 470.
QC 156, Manila 103, Paranaque 78.

CL down a lot at 124, Bulacan 32, Pampanga 29
4A down nearly 90 at 336...Cavite 110, Rizal 70, Batangas 69, Laguna 68.

Visayas down 58 at 244.
Cebu City 26, IloIlo City 60.

Mindanao up 5 at 94.
Davao City 22, Zamboanga City up 7 to 9.

Latest OCTA positivity chart:


Only for selected areas but positivity high in some parts of the Visayas and N. Luzon.

DOH weekly report

As has become usual it's not up yet on their site.
According to GMA News:
Cases 10,271 (7,398) up 39%
For comparison my calendar week had a 57% increase.

Deaths 50 (74) None of them since June 27.

Severe and Critical:
New patients 27 (19)
Admitted 555 (497)

ICU beds 17% (15.3%)
Non ICU 22.7% (19.9%)

So indications of covid hospital facilities under some increased utilization as cases increase.
Remembering that if the pattern of 2020 and 2021 is followed a large fraction of patients sick with covid won't be admitted into these "primary" facilities.




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Old Jul 12th 2022, 10:21 pm
  #1743  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

About 300 less cases announced yesterday.and the latest test number for the 11th July showing tests up to 20.6k individuals. But now that case numbers are higher it seems likely that many more results are now back to taking 2 days or more to be validated. For a while now the DOH tracker data has not shown daily positivity, as it used to do.

Active 14,464, up 244

Location detail

The NCR with 597 cases and a lower 44% of the national total. Its 6 largest cities with 362 cases...QC 122, Manila 70, Paranaque 65.

CL constant at 124, Bulacan more than doubled to 66.
4A with one more case at 337. Cavite up 37 to 147, Rizal 65, Batangas 57, Laguna 55.

These 3 regions at a much higher 78% of all cases.

Visayas cases down to 177.
Cebu City 34.

Mindanao cases down 38 to 56.
Davao City 12.


If this is true...and it is based on the results of a not yet peer reviewed paper...then the succession of Omicron variants may not be as benign as generally thought. Dr John is sceptical about that.. From the latest Dr J video on BA.4 and 5 waves in the UK variants much more successful spreading through immune escape than earlier Omicron variants.

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Old Jul 13th 2022, 9:48 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday about 4k more tests done 2 days ago and an increase in new cases to 1,604.
Active 14,862, up 398.

Location detail:

The NCR with 40 more over the day before at 637. But cases from its 6 biggest cities down 42 at 320...QC 112, Manila 73, Pasig 52.
The NCR with a lower 40% of all cases.

Region CL up 79 at 203. Bulacan 52, Pampanga 54.
4A with only a slight increase to 347. Laguna up 58 to 113, Cavite 91, Batangas 69, Rizal 61.

These 3 regions with a lower 74% of all cases.

In the Visayas WV up 90 to 186. CV down to 33.
Total cases up 60 to 237.
IloIlo City 79, Cebu City down to 15.

Mindanao cases up 20 to 76.
Davao City up at 33...but CDO, Zamboanga and GenSan Cities only with 10 cases between them.
Iligan City with a high 4. Usually 0-2.
So that leaves 29 from smaller areas there.
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Old Jul 15th 2022, 12:20 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a splurge of 2,371 cases with test numbers down by over 1k.
Deaths 1
Active 16,244, up 1,382

Location detail:

NCR at 955 and 40% of all cases.
QC 170, Manila 119, Paranaque 83.
Its 6 biggest cities with a lower 57% of its cases.

Region CL up by only 1 at 204 whereas 4A up by over 200 to 552.
Cavite 190, Laguna 135, Rizal 101.

These 3 regions with 72% of all cases.

The CAR, Cagayan and Ilocos regions all with moderate increases too.
Baguio City up 32 to 40 cases.

In the Visayas the total went up by over 100 to 354 cases.
Notably CV was up by 110 to 143 cases.
Cebu City 71.

Mindanao numbers were up too. By 42 to 118.
CDO City 20, Davao City 41.
But reports from its other main cities still very low.

The doleful ex Under Secretary gains from BBMs failure to pick a a new Health Secretary:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...doh-oic/story/

From her performance over the pandemic years think we can expect no great changes in DOH policies
Looks to me she will be made permanent soon too.



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Old Jul 15th 2022, 1:22 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Well at least she is a well respected health professional. I imagine that those who have been considered view the position as one with a poisoned chalice.
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Old Jul 15th 2022, 9:58 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx
Well at least she is a well respected health professional. I imagine that those who have been considered view the position as one with a poisoned chalice.
She knows, literally in some ways, where the bodies are! BBM doesn't want an outsider coming in and discovering more of what went on with issues like Pharmally and the poor data. Competent, respected maybe but putting her in the top job but in an acting capacity does what the BBM-Duterte admin wants.

Last edited by Raffin; Jul 15th 2022 at 10:04 pm.
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Old Jul 15th 2022, 10:48 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Over 200 more new cases announced yesterday at 2,588 with the latest test number down by 2k to 21,2k.
Active 18,090, up substantially 1,846

Location detail

The NCR up 29 to 984 and a lower 38% of all cases. The cases in its 6 biggest cities up 14 to 563 and still at 57% of the total.
QC 180, Manila 112, Taguig 98.

Latest OCTA NCR report:


Well...cases on the 14th were 45 less than 1,000, 16 less on the 16th. So gradually getting to 1k. They're not very sure where case numbers are going. Seemingly more confident that health facilities in NCR cities can cope.

The DOH have a higher NCR postivity rate, though no information on when measured, and seem not so confident about the future of case rates there:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...isk-doh/story/

Region CL up by 60 with Bulacan 83, Pampanga 39 cases.
Region 4A up by 122 to 674...Cavite up 56 to 246, Laguna up 14 to 149, Batangas also up 14 to 113, Rizal up 44 to 145.

These 3 regions with an increased 74% of all cases.

The Visayas total steady at 348 with WV up 45 to 236. But CV was down 51 to 92.
IloIlo City up 11 to 89, Bacolod City went up to 19 cases. Cebu City 45, Tacloban City still low with 2 cases.

Mindanao down 13 at 105 total cases. Its cities staying very low.
But noteworthy that Iligan City, normally reporting 0-2 cases reported 7!


The BA.4/5 later Omicron variants causing very high UK prevalence, according to both ZOE data and ONS data. Generally mild cold like symptoms but some effect on hospitalizations. Though the data not showing it likely the same in the rest of Europe and the US. It's the summer travel season in those countries and the Philippines is open.
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Old Jul 16th 2022, 10:05 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 9 less new cases at 2,578. Latest individual test number up by 1.5k.
Active cases 18,990, up 2,746

OCTA calculate national positivity July 10-15 at 11.8%.

Location detail

NCR with a lower 36% of all cases at 916. Though cases in its 6 largest cities rose a little to 577, 63% of the NCR total.
QC up 22 to 202, Manila 113, Taguig 84.

Region CL up 13 to 277.....Bulacan 77, Pampanga up 30 to 69.
4A about the same at 675 cases.... Cavite 200, Laguna up 25 to 174, Rizal up 28 to 173, Batangas with 12 fewer at 101.

These 3 regions at 73% of all cases.

The Ilocos region up 14 to 85.

The Visayas with 29 more cases at 377. WV and CV up by a few cases each. IloIlo City 99.
Cebu City 49.

Mindanao up by 37 cases. All its regions up. Davao to 54. Davao City itself more than doubled to 48 cases.

Weekly report later today.
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Old Jul 17th 2022, 2:43 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Weekly report:

Some reduction in the rate of national increase.. Last week 14,182 (10,014) cases. A 42% (57%) increase.

The NCR had a greater slow down with an 11% (36%) increase.

For its 6 biggest cities:

Paranaque +20% (+43%)
QC 20 (28)
Taguig 19 (71)
Caloocan 17 (20)
Pasig 11 (70)
Manila 8 (52)

A dramatic slowdown in 4 NCR cities.

Region CL had a slightly faster rate of increase by 72 (69). Bulacan by 83 (29).
Region 4A slowed a little...57 (64):

Laguna 59 (80)
Rizal 51 (67)
Cavite 52 (54)
Batangas 30 (69)

Laguna cases still increasing at a high rate. Cavite cases grew by about 50% a week over the past fortnight.

In the Visayas cases increased by 43 (42).
in WV the increase was a little faster 51 (48).
In CV a lot faster 45 (22).
Cebu City cases by 78%, though the populous city had only 283 cases for the week.
IloIlo City cases by 51 (49)

In Mindanao case numbers are still small but there was a 54% (23%) increase.
Davao City 46 (44).Its case numbers low still at 205.

Evidence supporting the claim by some concerned doctors and health experts here that the Philippine's vaccine roll out did not go well for many people:


The sudden jump in deaths post vaccination roll outs to the different age groups seem to rule out natural causes as a cause.
For more on this see the latest newsletter from:

https://supersally.substack.com/

Singapore having a surprisingly difficult time with the later Omicron variants;


Singapore covid cases.


Singapore covid deaths fell but now seem to have reached a floor.



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Old Jul 17th 2022, 9:30 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Ten fewer cases yesterday at 2,560 and the latest individual test number was down by about 3k or 13%.
Active 19,873, up 893

Latest OCTA positivity table:



Location detail

NCR up 72 to 988 and 39% of all cases. Its six biggest cities totaled 602, 61% of the NCR total. QC 197, Manila 100, Pasig and Paranaque each 93, Taguig 83, Caloocan 36.

CL and 4A both down a little to 272 and 630 cases.
In CL Bulacan 73, Pampanga 70.
For 4A: Cavite 200, Laguna 166, Rizal 139, Batangas 103 cases,

These 3 regions with 74% of all cases.

Visayas numbers down to 302.
Cebu City 53, IloIlo City 43.

Mindanao up slightly to 154.
Davao City 46, CDO City 18, Zamboanga City 12.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

I think to be called an expert on this virus you have to be more aware of what's going on in other countries with these later Omicron variants than this doctor seems to be. Namely immune escape. So the modest total of 71M with two doses, with about 40% of them having had the less effective Coronavac vaccine, booster only 15M which is further weakened by the high immune escape of BA.4 and 5 Omicron variants. Which we surely have here now.
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Old Jul 18th 2022, 9:45 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A 20% fall in testing on the 16th and nevertheless cases numbers down by only 10%, at 2,285.
Active 20,524, up 651.

Location detail

The NCR 911 and 40% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities 580, QC 232, Manila 89, Pasig and Taguig 81. Paranaque 63.

Region CL stable at 273, Bulacan 75, Pampanga 84.
4A down by about 100 at 529. Cavite up 20 to 220, Laguna down to 118, Rizal and Batangas both 90.

Ilocos nearly doubled to 102.
The CAR up 12 to 40.
Baguio City 30.

For the Visayas both WV and CV cases were down. In total by 55 to 247.
But IloIlo City was up slightly to 51.
Cebu City 47.

Mindanao cases were down by 40 to 114.
Davao City 30 cases.

DOH weekly report

Cases up 44% (39%)... for their "week".
1 Death (50)

Severe and Critical:

589 (555) admissions
35 (27) new patients

ICU 18.3% (17.0%)
Non ICU 23.8% (22.7%)

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Old Jul 19th 2022, 10:30 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

As usual a further dip on Tuesday in cases from weekend testing. Announced yesterday 1,841. Latest test numbers up to 20.6k individuals.
Active 20.511, down 13. A splurge of recoveries.

Location detail

NCR 710 and 39% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities providing 450...QC 185, Manila 101, up 12, Pasig 53.

CL region down to 229, 4A to 434.
Bulacan stable at 75, Pampanga fell to 56.
Cavite down to 147, Laguna to 97, Batangas 69, Rizal up 9 to 99.

These 3 regions again providing 75% of all cases.

Visayas numbers down 11 to 236 overall, but WV was up 3 to 150. CV down 15 to 73.
Cebu City 33, IloIlo City 48.

Mindanao down 7 to 107.
Davao City 31.

GMA News giving a comprehensive list of Alert levels to the end of the month:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=1


Dr J presenting Australian evidence of the main feature of the later Onicron variants.....immune escape. Ties in with evidence from the UK and US. Looks likely to be ignored here as the new administration seems to be planning a big vaccination push.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=3

Yes, the evidence is they give good protection against serious illness. But with its young population how serious a risk is that here and wouldn't a campaign restricted to only the population at serious risk be better?
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Old Jul 20th 2022, 10:35 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday well over 200 more cases than the day before at 2,074. Latest test numbers up 3k at 23.6k individuals.
Active 20,678, up 167

Location detail

NCR 788 and a slightly lower 38% of all cases. The six biggest cities with 464 of them, 59%. QC 163, Manila 101, Pasig 66 cases.

Region CL with a few more cases at 238, Bulacan 73, Pampanga 58 cases.
Region 4A up 56 to 490. Cavite up 31 to 178, Laguna 46 to 143, Batangas 73, Rizal down 11 to 88.

In the Visayas CV numbers rose by 30 to 103, WV 147. Total up 36 to 272 cases.
Cebu City 54, IlioIlo City 50 .Bacolod City 15, Tacloban City 1

Mindanao down 20 at 87.
Davao City 22, CDO City 12.
I am somewhat surprised Mindanao reports are not much greater..Perhaps as there is more contact with the NCR than the Visayas?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/20/...-behind-us-sws

This says to me that most people are not going to be happy to be pushed to take boosters without either some incentives or being made necessary to be considered fully vaccinated.
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Old Jul 21st 2022, 9:51 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Over 750 more cases yesterday at 2,828. But the latest individual test number stable at 23.6k.
Active 22,207, up 1,529

Location detail

The NCR up by over 200 to 1,002. But that is a lower 70% of all cases. Its largest 6 cities with 622 cases...QC 215, Manila 112, Paranaque 96, Pasig and Taguig 87.

Region CL up 100 at 238. Bulacan 74, Pampanga up 19 to 77.
4A up 142 to 632...Cavite down a little to 167, Laguna up 37 to 180, Laguna up 34 to 107.

These 3 regions with a lower 70% of all cases.

The CAR up 24 to 74...Baguio City 50.
Cagayan up 64 to 106.
Ilocos up only 9 to 68.

The Visayas up over 100 to 391. WV up 34 to 181, CV up 72 to 175.
Cebu City 89, IloIlo City up 15 to 65.

Mindanao cases up 60 to 147. But increases in its main cities, except for Zamboanga, were small.
Zamboanga City up 11 to 19.

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