Philosophical 11

I find it somewhat disconcerting that the UK with nearly half the population of the Philippines and vastly far more vaccinated registered about 38k new cases yesterday and the Philippines 17k. Also the R rate in the UK is 1.1....far lower than the Philippines. The Delta virus struck the UK far earlier than the Philippines. Are the figures coming out of the UK a pre-curser to what we can expect in the Philippines in the coming weeks? Or are the measures taken in the Philippines far more effective than that in the UK bearing in mind the comparative figures I have stated?

Raffin

Everybody agrees that the UK government took quite a gamble to remove restrictions in July. The dramatic surge in cases in July and into August predicted by many did not occur but there is now a steady rise, though less steep than when delta first struck there. Going into autumn cases are predicted to rise faster. But hospitals there are seeing a much lower admission rate for all age groups than at the peak back in January, except for the young due to the age prioritization for vaccination. Two dose vaccination is now at 78% of the adult population. So the UK can look forward to a time early next year when over 90% are doubly vaccinated and the most vulnerable have had a booster. The NHS will have coped, just.

Here the lack of testing means that there are many more cases than admitted. If you monitor the data daily you will see in many regions they have a testing blitz one day in an area then have another one after a few days somewhere else. The UK is now testing at a daily level x10 here now , with a much lower population. Of course the younger Phil population means most of the undetected can ride out a mild illness. The unlucky get worse, don't get into a proper hospital and after a delay many are recorded as covid deaths.

Yes, I think the restrictions here are holding down cases somewhat but the government has promised a normal Xmas season , and that starts next month! So more economic activity more cases in a population of over 110M with only 18M doubly vaccinated, about half with a weaker Chinese vaccine. The limited number of primary hospitals are mostly already almost at full capacity.

So I think the UK gamble will eventually pay off, though with more pain than hoped for. The Phils took their gamble when they delayed the vaccine ordering last year. Now they can't repeat large area hard lockdowns so even if we don't see very high cases numbers I think the moderately high numbers here now and over the next month will affect the population here more than the increasing UK numbers will people there.

Gazza-d

The UK is experiencing more than double the daily case but one third of the deaths so is the Philippines really seeing 50k+ daily cases.

Bealinehx

With the lack of testing possibly yes. The UK is also experiencing a very low level of serious cases, and has the highest testing / population ratio when compared to countries with populations greater than 10 million

Raffin

Two pandemic records yesterday. Cases at 19,441 and positivity at 27.5%. Three labs late to submit and 255 cases were held over. Tests conducted on 71.6K and 63.6k on the way. Note that daily tests now can exceed 70k.

Recoveries a high 19.2k.

Deaths 167, 76 RDs

Active 142,679

Severe 1,570, up 2 and Critical 856 up 1
Very small changes.

NCR ICU 73%, down 2% and national 74%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 5,085
4A 4,446
CL 2,624
IL 1,086
CV 1,004
Dav 898
WV 875

600s 1 region
500 1
400 2
300 2
200 1
100 2

NCR new cases rose only a little. It had 26.2% of all cases.
CL rose most by over 650. 4A had over 450 more.
IL had over 500 more, a nearly 50% increase on the day before.
NM had 170 more to 676.

Five of the 17 regions had less cases.

Top 6 regions: 77.9%, up slightly.

Rappler seem to want to rival ABS-CBN and OCTA with covid data analysis.
Ordering on 2 week daily attack rate up to August 27. Over 7% highlighted in red.



NCR leading by a distance on 2 week ADAR but it must have by far the best testing of all the regions.
Case growth rates in a number of other regions exceeded the NCR's. Notably Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Cagayan, Caraga, Zamboanga and BARMM.

NCR plus MECQ extended another week.

Rappler also produced an updated quarantine list:

Gazza-d

That quarantine list is not quite correct according to Roque's pronouncement yesterday. NCR, Laguna and Bataan are in MECQ plus restrictions which seemed to be a category all on its own.

News just coming out of the UK, the delta variant is causing 2x hospitalization compared to the alpha variant in the unvaccinated which is bad news for countries with low levels of vaccination.

Raffin

Yes Gazza, I watched it this morning. Experts thought the delta variant probably did cause more severe disease and this clever study quantifies the increased likelihood. Vaccinated no greater risk.


A Scottish study found the same.

When Dr John talked about the increased risk for the unvaccinated abroad this was the first country that came out of his mouth. Bodies may not be lying in the streets here as in India but probably in hospital annexes and car parks.

The NCR Mayors are drawing up lists of new areas for granular lockdowns. They have to be long given this is an admitted shift in policy away from hard lockdowns when cases are increasing fast. Hard for those living there and will also cause access problems for others in some areas. Where we used to live in Paranaque our nearest access to the main road went through a small Barangay. But I really wonder if many NCR cities are up to it, given all the other covid work they do?

Bealinehx

With LGU's and Barangays each having their individual take on official pronouncements the so called granular lockdown is leading the population to one of the greatest dogs dinners.
The Philippines is the only country that mandates the use of face masks and face shields simultaneously. What good does that do? Looks like nothing. With the fiscal management issues with DOH I wonder who benefits the most from the sales of face shields?
Only having the vast majority fully vaccinated as quickly as possible is the only solution. The overstretched resources cannot begin to contain the exponential rise in new cases. Lack of testing hides the reality.

Raffin

Yesterday positivity edged up tp 27.9% from 66.2k tests. Seven labs late. Cases fell about 900 to 18,528. Tests coming along a lower 57.3k.

Recoveries17.9k

Deaths 101 with 38 RDs.

Active 143,221

Severe 1,575, up 5 and Critical 859, up 3

NCR ICU 66%, down 7% (!). National 71%, down 3%

Regional data:

NCR 4,864
4A 4,422
CL 2,204
CV 989
WV 936
Cag 818
IL 765

The regions split about equally on cases going up or down.
The NCR had over 200 less with 26.3% of all cases. 4A had about the same and together with the NCR reported 50.1% of all cases. CL had over 400 less and these top 3 regions had 62% of cases.

The top 6 regions: 76.8% of cases, down 1%.

Health protocols:

https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/08/...survey/1812743

Still quite high. Not a surprise that the use of the pesky faces shields fell by 5%.
They say 80% approval of the government's handling of the pandemic but only 50% "somewhat". More detail on that useful.
Survey taken back in July so not covering another NCR ECQ and the delta surge.

Raffin

Weekly update:

In every region the increase in cases last week exceeded the increase the week before by between 2 and 97% higher (BARMM):

NCR 11%

The others:

4A 64%
CAR 55
Caraga 52
Davao 51
Bicol 43
Zamb 30
Cag 25
SOCCSK 24
MIM 23
WV 15
CL 11
IL 9
NM 4
CV 3
EV 2

Region 4A with a population similar to the NCRs and only 1.5M there doubly vaccinated.

For the NCR, provinces and other cities there is some exaggeration of the % increases over the previous 7 days as the data last week is for 8 not 7 days. I was unable to collect the DOH cumulative totals last Saturday in time.

In the NCR all but 2 cities, Mandaluyong and Pasig had increases more this last week than over the one before.

Top 6 omitting Pateros, 115% increase:

S John 83%
Taguig 54
Mla 53
Caloocan 47
Pasay 46
LP 33

QC just 10% up.

Provinces:

Rizal 182
Pang 66
Btgs 60
Quez 52
Bata 41
Cav 37
Lag 32
Bul 25
Pam 9

Rizal has a large part of its population close to the NCR, as does Cavite and Laguna, but an exceptional increase.


Rizal



Other Cities:

Bac 51
Bag 86
CDO -3
Cebu 1
Davao 70
GSan 149
Ilo2 209
Lapu2 -1

Aklan -35
Ilo2 71

Boh 165

Raffin

Another record high at 22,366 but as the DOH included 4,462 cases from their backlog the daily total becomes a bit meaningless. Positivity also. It was 27.5%. Big fall to 46.8k for tests to come from the usual weekend effect on testing.

Recoveries 16.9k

Deaths 222 with 105 RDs

Active 148,594

Severe 1,635, up 60 and Critical 892, up 33

NCR ICU 72%, up 6% and nationally 74%, up 3%

Regional data:

NCR 5,588
4A 4,942
CL 2,885
WV 1,174
IL 1,153
Cag 1,132
Davao 1,097
NM 884
CV 872
SOCCSK 516
CAR 446

300s 4 regions
200s 1
100s 1

The NCR added over 700 more, 25% of all cases. 4A put on over 500 more. The two together made up 47% of all cases.
CL added just less than 700 more. These 3 regions contributed 60% of all cases.

Ilocos added nearly 400 more.
Cagayan more than 300.
NM reported over 300 more, WV over 200 more
Davao more than doubled its cases.
BARMM and EV each added over 100 more.

Top 6 regions: 75.4%, down 1%



National cases


NCR cases

See Calabrzon chart shown yesterday..


Central Luzon cases.


National deaths.

International tables:


Cases and deaths. Note Malaysia at 23rd




By new cases yesterday. Note 5 E and SE Asian countries in the top 11 places.

Raffin

A drop in positivity with less testing plus 8 labs late in submitting gave a much lower 13,827 new cases, which was itself increased by a 1,333 backlog. Positivity 25.4% from 49.2k tests, 46.6k in process.

Recoveries 16.8k
Deaths 118 with 37 RDs

Active 145,562

Severe 1,601, down 34 and Critical 873, down 19

NCR ICU 73%, up 1% and national 73%, down 1%
I think the first time lately they have been equal.

Regional data:

NCR 3,517
4A 3,163
CL 1,545
CV 813
Cag 759
IL 637
WV 587
NM 549
Dav 479

300s 1 region
200s 3
100 4

NCR with about 2k less with 25.4% of all cases, 4A 1.8k less and CL 1.3k less.
All other regions had fewer cases.

Top 6 regions 74.8%, down a little.

The Philippines has a health minister who rarely speaks to the public about the covid situation, which allows others like the President to make statements like this:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/31/...than-neighbors

Fact checking on a deaths per million population basis Philippines about halfway in the Asian table at 301.
Worse than Saudi Arabia at 241.
Also worse than Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam and Cambodia.
It has the advantage of one of the youngest populations in the world too.

Dr WHO said this:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/31/...ace-shield-use

He says that there has been some delay in Delta variant spread here. Really? With the poor genomic testing here they have no good idea of the amount of spread.
A shield protects the eyes, yes. Reading around it mainly stops the virus causing conjunctivitis ("red eye"), Some claim the virus can enter the body through mucous membranes but I can find no evidence that it has happened..
If you have a badly fitted facemask, yes it will give you some protection. But I think you may well have a badly fitted face mask as fitting the shield can interfere with the proper fitting of the mask over the nose.
If you happened to touch a heavily infected surface yes, a face mask would stop you touching your face, while you have it on anyway. But I wonder if the shield could trap virus too?

In my opinion they have minimal advantages over masks alone for protection and many other disadvantages.
Which is why the good doctor could not name any other country where they are mandated so much like here.

Also he makes a curious statement " It is not an airborne transmission". Is that a misquote? Like me you may have seen videos of researchers showing the AC inside a restaurant moving the virus around. Surely the air can move the water droplets, particles and aerosol which carry the virus around? Outside the air will usually disperse the virus, but indoors send it around to infect others.

The straight talking Dr Leachon sees something of a health disaster coming here:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...southeast-asia

Bealinehx

At least there is a smidgin of good news reported in the Manila Bulletin yesterday. Marikina City has fully vaccinated 350,000 residents thus achieving a level of community protection (so called herd immunity, whatever that is) and is now vaccinating people from Rizal Province. Also Mandaluyong and San Juan have achieved community protection levels. Of course all this good news maybe kicked into base when the current restrictions are relaxed.
Raffin's reference to the Head of States recent remarks reminds me of a former US Presidents utterances.

Raffin

According to Dr John many experts now think we can't reach herd immunity. Forget about testing and just treat the sick.



Not so relevant here as we obviously can't properly treat the sick.

Bealinehx

I have just seen the video. So this will give more food for thought at DOH coupled with the face shield developments.