Raffin

A slight fall yesterday to 14,610 cases. But 7 labs late to submit. The backlog included was 1,162. Positivity 23.0% from 58.5k tests. A much lower 36.4k tests in preparation.

Recoveries 10.7k

Deaths 27, 22 RDs.

Active 106,672

Severe 1,387, +51, Critical 747, -75

NCR ICU 72%, up 1% nationally 71%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 4,071
4A 3.232
CL 1,903
CV 1,181
NM 727
IL 719
WV 551

1 400s
1 300s
3 200s
2 100s

Top 6: 81% of all cases. Up.

The NCR added over 400 more with 27.9% of all cases.
4A added over 200 more.
CV increased by about 200.
8 regions had moderate falls in the number of cases added.

The Delta variant:

Was 68% of samples in the NCR in July, the Genome center say.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/16/...-genome-center

Confirmation and more detail from the OCTA group about the probably resulting 51% weekly NCR rise in yesterday's weekly update:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3

The SC plus 1 policy being considered by the DOH to increase the percentage of vaccinated seniors, which the DOH say is currently only 43%:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ty-list/story/

Raffin

The usual weekend fall in testing giving a much reduced 10,035 cases, 6 labs late. Backlog included was high at 1,535. Positivity 22,2% from 38.2k tests with a higher 43.5k on the way.

Recoveries 10k

Deaths 96, 39 RDs.

Active 105,858

Severe 1,376, -11, Critical 741, -6

NCR ICU 69%, down 3%. National 71%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 2,380
4A 2,140
CL 1,291
CV 845
NM 584
Cag 519
WV 492
D 426

Then 300 1 region
200 1
100 2

Top 6 regions 77.3%, down

The NCR maintaining top place with the reduced testing, having about 1,700 less cases and 4% less of the total cases than the day before. Region 4A came second with just over 1k less new cases.
Most of the other regions had less cases but the CAR, CARAGA, Cagayan and Davao regions had modest increases.

Large household sizes playing a big part in Philippines covid and probably more so with the Delta variant:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ome-isolation-
centers/story/

https://www.rappler.com/nation/cagay...han-before-ecq

Without more vaccination ECQ can only do so much, but with the NCR and around getting the majority of the meagre supply CDO and other areas in Mindanao are not getting enough vaccine quickly enough to reduce the past and near future rise in cases:


CDO city

In part of his weekly radio address to the nation the President warns the public that covid will be with us here for a long time. Like the Spanish flu last century, he says.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/17/...s-says-duterte

While covid here is likely still to be around in a year's time the Spanish flu was almost completely gone in 2 years in most countries. To be replaced by a another yearly flu virus, one radically different. Influenza does that every year. Whereas covid variants pose a more difficult problem. We've already had a few and there could be more on the way. With the Philippines more exposed than many other countries to them over the next year due to its slow vaccination roll out.

Raffin

New cases announced yesterday over 1k up, 9 labs late, Backlog included only 170. Positivity 23.4% out of 46.6k tests. A higher 57,5k in process.

Recoveries 11.6k

Deaths 161, 74 RDs.

Active 105,151

Severe 1367, -9 and Critical 736, -5

NCR ICU 61%, down 8%. National 68%, down 3%
Large fall in NCR ICU use.

Reginal data:

NCR 2,946
4A 2,854
CL 1,479
CV 956
WV 472
IL 436
Cag 354

300s 1
200s 3
100s 3

Top 6: a high 82.5%

NCR added more than 550 at 26.6% of all cases.
4A added over 700 more. Together with the NCR the two regions accounted for 65.6% of all cases.
CL added nearly 200.
CV and SOCCSK each over 100.



Some figures to quantify the obvious from a recent Dr John video. Very young getting on for half as more likely to spread the virus than teens. A significant factor here.

Raffin

Testing of nearly 60k individuals earlier in the week gives a higher 14,895 new cases, positivity 23.8%. Just 2 labs late to report. Backlog included 656.Tests on the way at a higher 63.2k.

Recoveries 8.3k

Deaths at 258, 180 RDs.


The DOH not talking about this....

Active 111,720

Severe 1,452, up 85 and Critical 782, up 46

NCR ICU 73%, up 12% National ICU 72%, up 4%
A large one day NCR increase. Suggesting these numbers are not updated regularly.

Regional data:

NCR 4,348
4A 2,981
CL 2,123
CV 826
WV 734
Cag 610
IL 570

4 regions 200s
3 100s

NCR added nearly 1,400 more new cases to have 29.2% of all cases.
NCR plus 4A had 49.2%. Adding the CL region, which had nearly 700 more cases, accounts for 63.5% of all cases.

The top 6 regions at 81.3%, down a little.

Elsewhere NM reported nearly 850 more.
WV more than 250 more.
IL and EV added more than 100 on the day before.

NCR Quarantine:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/19/...til-end-august

Also Bataan gets MECQ for a week.

Other provinces around the NCR , especially Cavite also escaped ECQ, despite their case increases.

Dining, in or out and salons still closed.

The data do not seem to show any improvement, cases so far this week in the NCR are well up on the week before's.
NCR hospital utilisation is getting worse. In fact the effect of ECQ cannot be judged yet.

So the decision was swayed by economic factors. One more week of ECQ with no obvious medical data gains to show would be embarrassing. ECQ could then extend further waiting for case increase to stabilize. Resulting in serious negative multiplier effects on the economy, extra ayuda to be paid. As it is the government will be under pressure to pay some extra ayuda as many NCR workers will not go back yet.

The expectation at the end of August will therefore be to go back down to GCQ, but with those heightened restrictions again. This to be maintained for a month at least. Hoping the case data is showing some reductions by then.

They're taking a chance that they can soon stem the rise in cases next month by stepping up vaccination, with all its difficulties of supply and hesitancy.

Bealinehx

R., Once again thank you for your daily COVID-19 briefs, always informative.
So we in NCR and I believe Laguna are about to enter MECQ which does not have any practical differences from ECQ.
Now that the vaccinated have LGU issued vaccine passports it poses the question, of what practical use are they when the vaccinated are treated in the same manner as the unvaccinated?
The Philippines is I believe, the only country to impose the use face shields in addition to face masks. I wonder who is behind this money making scheme????
Another weekend looms stay safe and be careful one and all.

Raffin

Yes B previously the NCR GCQ with "heightened restrictions", went straight up to ECQ, now down to MECQ. The MECQ and MGCQ levels seem only to have the function of keeping the public's attention. The NCR could just as easily be put back down to GCQ with "heightened restrictions".
Except that in the move up from GCQ to ECQ they put on movement restrictions in and out of the NCR plus area. My wife wants to go to the family home for an important purpose but her flight was cancelled with only 24hrs notice and a PCR test wasted. Flights apparently restricted to certain APORs. Not clear now what will happen to her flight next week.
All they're looking at on the vaccination passports is some public transport. But I think there is bound to be a demand by those running clubs, bars etc and events organisers to use them if allowed to next year. But I don't think more generally, given the likely maximum take up.

Raffin

Yesterday all time high of 17,231 positives announced. Just 2 labs late to report and a backlog of only 283 included. A higher 26.1% positivity. from 65k tests with 64k on the way.

Recoveries 5.6k

Deaths 317 (!) with 221 RDs.

Severe 1,479, +27 and Critical 863, +81

NCR ICU 74%, up 1%, nationally 73%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 4,658
4A 3,707
CL 2,123 (same as yesterday)
CV 1,311
Cag 832
NM 831
IL 641
WV 588
Davao 577
SOCCSK 521

300s 1
200s 2
100s 3

NCR added over 300 more and had 27.0% of all cases.
4A added over 700 in second place. Together with CL they made up 60.1% of cases.
CV added nearly 500, Davao nearly 300.
SOCCSK and Cagayan over 200.

Top 6: 78.1%, down.

NCR Quarantine change:

A little more coming out on yesterday's decision.
Opinions were finely balanced in the IATF meeting, according to a cabinet member. As evidenced by the lateness of the decision. In the end it came down to government spending. They (or he) were not prepared to pay out more ayuda. Remembering that it would also be paid for Laguna and Bataan, There will also be no ayuda for the MECQ, the cabinet member said.

Exercise now back in the NCR, 6 -9am only.

Population "protection"?

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...u?ocid=BingHPC

A half way house on the way to herd immunity aiming to just reduce hospitalization and deaths. Don't think vaccinating only 50% will start to do that here

Raffin

A few hundred less cases announced yesterday at 16,694. Four labs late and a small backlog included. Positivity 25.2% from 65.8k tests. Tests on the way 60.3k.

Recoveries a high 15.8k.

Deaths 398 with 211 RDs.

Deaths announced over the last week showing nearly a 50% increase on the week before.
The latest DOH chart showing them from date of occurrence:



Compare with the same chart at 2 weeks ago:



Active cases 123,935

Severe 1,487, up 8 and Critical 868, up 5

NCR ICU 74%, nationally 73%. Both unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 4,469
4A 3,738
CL 2,539
CV 1,127
WV 922
NM 748
IL 728
Davao 649
SOCCSK 507

2 in the 200s
5 100s

Five regions only showing an increase on the day before. The only notable one was CL...it had over 400 more cases.
NCR with 26.8% of all cases.

The top 6 regions at 81.1% of all cases, up.

Will update on weekly changes in cities and provinces later.

Ayuda distribution:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...O?ocid=BingHPC

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

Another reason why the government couldn't have more ECQ. Slow distribution.

Delta variant:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/21/...n-is-there-doh

The DOH finally seeing enough delta transmission between non linkable cases to call it "community" transmission.

Dr John looks at delta and the effectiveness of the Pfizer/AZ vaccines, analysed through a large scale UK study.


Several interesting findings:

Delta infections give similar loads whether vaccinated or not.

Two doses give the same level of protection as having had covid.

You get a higher protection level when vaccinated after having had covid naturally.

The time between vaccinations not affecting new infections.
This conclusion from data goes against the generally accepted view up to now.

Of course in the Philippines these two vaccines together account for a much lower percentage of vaccines given. Sinovac is the dominant brand delivered here. Up to recently about 25M doses delivered, with the rest at 22M combined. Its general effectiveness much lower. So would need to scale down these results when applying them here.

Raffin

Weekly update (% change in new cases Aug 14- 21 over the previous week)

Regions;

BARMM +27
CAR +33
CARAGA +38
NCR +23
IL +25
Cag +50
4A +44
CL +28
MIM +45
Bic +14
WV -6
CV -3
EV +22
ZP +40
NM +15
Davao +9
SOCCSK +84

NCR adding cases at under half the rate but 4A adding at only a little less than the rate of the week before.
CL added new cases at 10% less.
WV and CV both adding less new cases than in the week before.
6 regions swing from adding less new cases to adding more new cases than in the previous week:
BARMM, IL, MIM, Bicol, EV and SOCCSK.

NCR cities:

Top 6 % increases:

1 Mand +254
2 Mkna +150
3 Munt +137
4 Pasig +73
5 Taguig +48
6 Cal +42

Cities with a fall in % increase:

Manila -6
Pat -10
LP -12
Nav -25


Provinces:

Bataan +27
Batngs +50
Bul +24
Cav +42
Lag +37
Pam +33
Pang +51
Quez +28
Riz +65

All exceeding the % increase in the NCR.

Other cities:

Bac +43
Bag +41
CDO +3
Cebu +3
Davao +5
Gen San +8
IloIlo -45
Lapu2 -15

Aklan -52
Ilo2 +31

Boh +31

Three major cities showing much lower rates of increase.

Raffin

New cases yesterday down by 650 but 680 were held over. Also 6 labs were too late to submit. Positivity 25.5% from 65.6k tests. Coming along 60.7k,

Recoveries 14k

Deaths 215 with 120 RDs.

Active 125,900

Severe 1,511, up 24 and Critical 755, down 113 (!)

NCR ICU 71%, down 3%. National 73%, unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 3,973
4A 3,542
CL 2,310
CV 1,360
NM 826
WV 741
IL 669
Davao 556

300s 3 regions
200s 2
100s 2

Top 6: 79.5%, down.

NCR down by about 500 at 24.8% of all cases. 4A and CL were both down by about 200. The 3 regions together making up 61.2% of all cases.
Elsewhere CV added over 200 more.
Cagayan over 100 more.

Raffin

A record high 18,332 cases yesterday. A notable backlog of 2,158 cases included. Very likely most of them from Cagayan Valley.. Three labs late. Positivity 24.9% from 65k tests. Much lower 45.5k tests from the weekend coming along.

Recoveries 13.8k
Much higher figures lately.

Deaths 151, 68 RDs.

Active 130,350

Severe 1,564, up 53 and Critical 782, up 27

NCR ICU 72%, up 1%. National 73% unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 4,805
4A 4,127
CL 2,010
Cag 1,551
CV 972
NM 841
WV 821
IL 655
Davao 553
CAR 518
SOCCSK 435

200s 2 regions
100s 3

NCR added over 700 more cases at 26.2% of all cases.
4A added nearly 600 more.
The CAR over 200 more.

Cagayan added a highly unusual 1,200 more. This must have been mostly backlog, whether held back in the DOH and/or perhaps locally for some validation reason.

NCR plus the 4A region had 48.7%.
Adding CL the 3 regions together had 59.7% of all cases.

Top 6 regions 78% of all cases, down.

Vaccines:

A one shot Russian vaccine given emergency approval.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/23/...vid-19-vaccine

Effectivity data with moderate results from Paraguay and also approved in Mongolia and Kazakhstan.
The maker with a reputation for not releasing data on their vaccines, even in Russia itself.
The ABS-CBN vaccine tracker records only 365k doses of their other vaccine administered here.

2022 Budget

https://www.rappler.com/nation/duter...ational-budget

Subject to change, but at present only 4% for pandemic response.

Duque not in touch with the data:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ot-work/story/

If you look back at my weekly update there are improvements in both regions, especially in the CV. CDO city also improved.

Raffin

Lower weekend testing giving about 6k less case announcements at 12,067. A backlog of 714 included. Also 10 labs late to submit, not counted. Positivity of 45.6k tests was 24.9%. An even lower 42.6k results in progress.

Recoveries higher at 14.6k

Deaths 303, 161 RDs.

ABS-CBN data analytics sent this out:



Active 127,703, down about 3k
Severe 1,532, down 32 and Critical 766, down 16
NCR ICU 74%, up 2% National 73%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 2,806
4A 2,551
CL 1,813
CV 1,014
Cag 715
NM 623
IL 622

400s 1 region
300s 1
200s 3
100s 2

NCR down by about 2k cases. Gave 23.3% of cases. 4A went down less, by 1,6k cases.
CL only 200 less.
All regions except CV , with 42 more, had less cases.

Top 6 regions: 79% up 1%

Raffin

Yesterday's test volume still affected by the usual weekend fall and also was supplemented by a backlog of 1,794 positives. Seven labs late to submit. Positivity of the 13,573 results was 25.5%. Tests coming higher at 57.8k.

Recoveries higher at 15.8k
You wonder if the DOH now pressurizing LGUs to increase recoveries?

Deaths 228, 152 RDs.

Active 125,378

Severe 1,505, -27 and Critical 752, -14

NCR ICU 73%, down 1% National 72%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 3,628
4A 2,913
CL 1,680
NM 850
CV 812
WV 683
IL 541
Dav 538

400s 1 region
300 1
200 2
100 3

Top 6: 77.8%, down 1%

The NCR added more than 800 to lead with 26.7% of cases.
4A was second and added more than 350 cases.
CLs cases fell by more than 100.
These 3 regions accounted for 60% of all cases.

Elsewhere WV rose by about 270 cases.

In Mindanao four regions had more cases.
NM over 200 more
SOCCSK by getting on for 200
Davao by more than 170
Zamboanga by about 100.

OCTA report that for the week Aug 18 -24 NCR cases fell by 13%. My calculations for a two week period a few days before that found a drop of 23%. They found the R number down to 1.53, a value still deemed "critical" overall. In fact only Navotas's R number was not critical, rather it went down to "high".
ADAR, new cases over a two week period as a % of population was over the critical 30% level in 13 cities.
Positivity lately in the NCR was at 23%.
ICU bed occupancy was very high, over 85%, in San Juan, Muntinlupa, Las Pinas, and Paranaque



Note; For those of you not that familiar with the NCR cities:

Pateros is a very small LGU, not a city.
San Juan is much larger but a small NCR city.
Both Makati and Muntinlpa (including Alabang) contain upscale shopping Mall areas but also have large populations of the poor in crowded residential areas not seen as easily.by visiting Expats.

Some personal observations on NCR travel during the ECQ/MECQ:

Driving into the S Metro area a number of times recently through Cavite one sees a number of mainly non functional checkpoints with a few police sitting down doing nothing..as they do. Only passed a couple, one near NAIA 3 and another on the NAIA road in Paranaque, that were stopping a few vehicles, but mainly waiving you through. Interestingly the Paranaque one was on the less traffic side going South in the morning. If it had been on the choked other side going into town no one would get to work.

Getting on a domestic flight is much more difficult. You need some luck to not book one which is later canceled at short notice. The main targets were flights to tourist destinations and places with increasing cases, especially in Mindanao and Visayas. Then the government is making the process difficult and expensive. You need a negative PCR test to be taken 2 days before the flight (late last year it was 5 days), one which promises a result in 24 hours. So if your flight is canceled late by the airline you can waste a few thousand pesos and your time getting that swab test.
Then you upload the S Pass app. It makes it easy for someone who is an APOR ie govt employee, frontliner, on business etc, but not so easy if you are going for family reasons. In that case better to use a travel agent to help you with it. Maybe you can get a cheaper ticket yourself, but these people have the knowledge on getting a quick PCR test and the SPass. Then your S Pass probably needs the approval of the destination LGU. This can be given quickly but best to get their phone number as you may be doing this late in the day before your flight.

Raffin

Yesterday cases increased to 16,313, 5 labs were late so not counted. 97 positive results were held over. Positivity 24.9% from 65.9k tests. Tests in preparation 67k.

Recoveries 9.7k

Deaths 236, 125 RDs.

Active 131,921
Highest since April 19

Severe 1,583, up 78 and Critical 792, up 40

NCR ICU jump by 4% to 77%, National 75%, up 3%

Regional data:

NCR 4,302
4A 3,512
CL 2,365
CV 1,088
NM 913
WV 621
Cag 611
IL 586

400s 1 region
200s 2
100s 5

NCR had getting on for 700 more, 4A about 600 and CL nearly 500 more.
NCR had 26.4% of all cases.
The top 3 regions 62.4%, up on the day before.

Elsewhere CV added nearly 200 more, EV nearly 100 more.

Only 4 regions had less cases added.

The top 6 regions had 79% of cases, up 1%.

Looks like the government have had enough with large area lockdowns:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/26/...owns-dilg-exec

Some face to face schooling being considered. Cases are increasing, but a start must be made to get at least some back to physical school:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...V?ocid=BingHPC

The city of Manila says that nearly 381k families got their P4,000 ayuda. Total population just under 2M. Seems to have been done well.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/27/...ting-ecq-ayuda

Classic British under statement from Dr John as he lays into the US FDA about Pfizer efficacy data in this video from Wednesday:


Actually a lot less than 91%...

Raffin

The second highest ever daily total yesterday at 17,447 and it could have been more as 926 positives were held back. Positivity up to 26.1% from a high 70.4K tests. A little fewer in process at 68k.

Recoveries at 6.8k

Deaths 113, 47 RDs.

Active 142,531

Severe 1,568, down 15 and Critical 855, up 63
Total 2,423

NCR ICU 75%, down 2%. National 75%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 4,901
4A 3,964
CL 1,960
CV 1,000
Dav 833
WV 814

600s 2 regions
500s 2
400s 1
300s 1
200s 2
100s 2

NCR adding 600 more with a higher 28.1% of all cases.
4A added about 450 more but CL in 3rd place reported 400 less.
The top 3 regions at 62% of all cases with the NCR and 4A at just over 50%.

Elsewhere Davao added 334 more.
Bicol 139 more.
The CAR quadrupled new cases to have 506.

Apart from CL 5 other regions added fewer cases.

The top 6 at 77.2% of all cases, down 2%.

A move to more "granular" ie small area lockdowns can only be justified by this government if they make them harsher than general lockdowns. So a discussion about stopping people going out:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3

Face shield purchasing:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/video...august-27-2021