Raffin

Over 8k cases announced four days in a row. Yesterday 8,167 with 3 labs late. The DOH estimates these would have added about 80 cases on past data. Positivity up at 15.7% out of 50.6k tests. As the weekend tests are processed we see the usual dip of tests on the way to 34.9k. A backlog of 223 cases was included.

There was still a deficit owing from held over cases in the last week of July. and by my computation there are still over 1k still being held by the DOH and not yet announced. Whether the DOH have good reasons for that or are choosing when best to announce bad news is not clear.

A doctor in the DOH has been having a go at the OCTA group:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/02/...ta-problematic

Notice he cites the 8,000 OCTA forecast, which conveniently for the DOH turned out to be only over 5k but with over 2k results held over. The total of those would have just exceeded 8k. He talks about backlogs but not about held over cases. All very petty but I guess there might be some rivalry and jealousy there. But mainly the DOH may be using him to bash OCTA in the media but at the same time holding back data.

Dr E Salvana doesn't have a good forecasting record himself, it seems:

https://www.dailypedia.net/2020/04/t...edsel-salvana/

Unfortunately as positivity creeps up testing is flat:


As cases rise in Manila beyond previous peaks can testing keep up? Especially as at the same time the DOH vows to maintain vaccination levels at 250k per day. Presumably staff can be deployed on both? Notice also no news lately about contact tracing. It can't do much now,

Recoveries 9.1k

77 Deaths, 29 of them RDs. (deaths misclassified as recoveries...often a large daily number and never explained)

Severe 1,315, down 149 and Critical 751, down 13
Severe numbers continue to be volatile.

NCR ICU 55%, up 4% (!), nationally 60%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 2,074
4A 1,476
CV 873
CL 836
WV 573
IL 407

300s 2
200s 2
100s 5

NCR with over 300 more cases and a quarter of all cases.

Top 6 at 76.4% of all cases.
Up 1.6%.

Eleven of the 17 NCR LGUs with 100 or more cases.
Up 13, down 3.
QC 79 up, Malabon 75 up. Taguig 84 up. Valenzuala 37 up.

QC 399, Manila 230, Makati 175, Taguig 173, Paranaque 128, Malabon 118

Provincially small changes.
Quezon added 49 more, Laguna 30 more, Rizal 27 more.

Cavite 521
Laguna 437
Bulacan 399
Rizal 204
Batangas 151
Pampanga 134
Bataan 128
Quezon 127

Cities and areas:

Baguio 47
CDO 182
Cebu 258, up
Davao 151
Gen San 84
IloIlo 68
LapLap 77

Aklan 167, up 17
IloIlo 185, up 16
Neg Occ 68

Bohol 238, up 179

Raffin

Yesterday 6,879, 9 labs late and includes a 351 backlog. Positivity a much higher (since April 26) 17.5% from 37.3k tests. Coming along 34.9k.

Recoveries 6.3k

Deaths 48, 18 RDs.

Active cases over 63k.

Severe 1,326, up 11 and Critical 758, up 7

NCR ICU 57%, up 2%, nationally 62%, up 2%

No locational data put out yet by the DOH.
In any case I may not have the time to give much daily detail later and for the rest of the week.
Will catch up on the detail at the weekend.

Some interesting news from the BBC:

Raffin

Yesterday the usual dip in cases mid week. Total 7,342 with 6 labs late reporting. and a backlog (576) again included. Positivity 16.4% from 41.3k individuals. A higher 54.1k tests on the way.

Recoveries 7.3k

Deaths 90 with 51 RDs.

Active unchanged at 63k cases

Severe 1,263, down 63 and Critical 758 unchanged

NCR ICU 59%, up 2% Nationally 61%, down 1%

Regional data:
First a catch up on August 3:

NCR 1,385
4A 1,148
CV 931
CL 838
WV 554
IL 447

NCR with 16.7% of total cases, down nearly 700.
4A down more than 300.
NM up 100.

Top 6 regions at 77% of all cases.

Yesterday's:

NCR 1,717
4A 1,328
CL 880
CV 857
WV 581
NM 510

NCR up over 300 to have 23.4% of cases.
4A up nearly 200.
CV up over 300.
NM up 80

Top 6 regions a high 80% of cases.

Will catch up with locational detail on NCR cities, provinces and other cities at the weekend.


Aklan's data has been shown here recently.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...tick-continues


The spat between the DOH and the OCTA group about their forecasts and views has attracted interest from law makers:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...research-group

Raffin

For those of you Senior in Manila here is a somewhat reluctant confirmation that you can go out over the next 2 weeks:



The fill list at:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...eek-ecq/story/

Bealinehx

The good intent of imposing the ECQ in Metro Manila took a huge blow yesterday with the crowd surges in Maynila and Las Pinas.
The Delta variant is here and will spread at an alarming rate. Lack of meaningful testing continues to hide the reality.

Raffin

Yesterday the DOH allowed 8,127 new cases to be announced...but 1,567 were held back and 8 labs were late in submitting. You could imagine there is a need to not announce some cases to ensure proper validation, but not over one thousand.
Tests done were 56k and a similar number on the way. Positivity went even higher at 17.3%.

Recoveries 4.3k

Deaths 196 with 131 RDs.

Active cases 60,895
Highest since May 3.

Severe 1,157, down 106 and Critical, 670, down 88
Large downward changes.

NCR ICU 58%, down 1% Nationally 60%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 2,043
4A 1,257
CL 786
CV 786
WV 728
NM 589

Top 6 regions 76.1% of all cases.

Will catch up on other locations at the weekend.

Today the 2 week NCR ECQ starts.

GMA news have helpfully summarized the latest Quarantine levels here:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

There was speculation that region 4A would get the same as NCR. But 16M people would be affected over a wide area. I think they would have liked to do it but can't afford the ayuda so the provinces have got different levels of quarantine for one week. Only Laguna got ECQ:


Laguna

But Cavite got the less strict MECQ for one week. But its recent case growth looks faster:



Bataan and Rizal got the same as Cavite.

For a number of weeks the DOH relied on the mantra that they had no evidence of community spread of the Delta variant. Only the less serious "local" transmission. When they knew their genomic testing was very poor. And there was plenty of evidence weeks ago from countries with much better testing how quickly the Delta variant could spread.

Slow to read and even make available the data they themselves generate and too quick to criticize others who even publicize the data and comment on it.

So we now have panic measures plus some panic being caused by the way they are being implemented and by words from the President.

Will these one week and two week measures be enough? I think they will need to be extended. But for long enough that is affordable and acceptable? One week more at the most for the NCR. Ayuda is also not distributed quickly enough to make it longer.

The DOH have promised an improved approach to testing and contact tracing. In such a short time? Though it will help if there is something of a lockdown as more people are at home. But then the virus will be spreading more domestically.

There are announcements on the treatment front about ICU beds, oxygen etc but they won't be enough I fear.

They are encouraging vaccination, good, but is there enough supply and the staff? And will it make much difference. The delta variant can easily infect once vaccinated individuals and also some doubly vaccinated.

The Delta variant has hit other Asian countries too but you have to feel the impact here could be one of the worst. It will also be national, not just the NCR and around.

Philosophical 11

Thanks for your daily updates Raffin.... always enlightening and worth a read.

But I have a sense of foreboding by your last paragraph.

Raffin

Me too, P11. Hope not but now nobody is saying it won't be bad here. We've been second worst behind Indonesia. Perhaps we will maintain that with the Delta as their hospital system has been overwhelmed. Ours may cope better, but not everywhere and there are now increased cases in more remote areas. But Indonesia's cases are now going down so the worst may be over there. Ours are projected to go up much further, even by the DOH. Though they may be over doing it to compensate for their past over optimism and to scare the public.

Raffin

Yesterday new cases well over 10k. The 10,623, highest since April 17, did not include any of the over 1.5k backlog still with the DOH. In fact 118 cases were held over. Positivity was up significantly to 18.4%. Tests were 58.4k with 56.6k on the way.

Recoveries 3.1k

Deaths 247, 150 RDs.
For those of you not always reading these updates I give the "recovery deaths" figures as I believe they are an indicator of the death rate in the more remote areas. Sick people dying and sadly not being cared for in "primary hospitals".

Active cases 74,297
Highest since April 26

Severe 1,337 up 180 and Critical 743, up 73
Big rises after big falls the day before.

NCR ICU 61%, up 3%. National 62%, up 2%

Regional data:

NCR 2,444
4A 2,052
CL 1,306
CV 1,057
WV 661
Davao 569
IL 508

Plus:

1 400s
1 300s
4 200s
4 100s

Top 6; 76.1% of all cases.

Will update on cities and provinces Sunday.

The NCR ECQ may not be returning MM to the ghost town of 2020 but the movement restrictions are in many ways more severe. You may not be allowed to shop in another city. Even leaving the NCR is difficult. There may be some people stranded later this month as this has just come out.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...eleazar/story/

I have personal knowledge that if you're not in business or a front liner you probably can't get on a domestic flight during the ECQ. They are still operating at a reduced level, especially to those destinations in GCQ. Despite having gone to the trouble and expense of getting tested.

The DOH has published the criteria they are using to categorize areas at risk, and give a list of those areas in the highest alert level 4:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/06/...id-19-severity

I went through the level 4 list and found the total population at level 4 was about 32M. Populations in 2016. Probably a few million higher now. That's about a third of the total population. Together with the not listed level 3 areas you feel the total must be at least half.

Raffin

Dr John at 17.00 says a little about the situation here and the Manila lockdown in his latest video.
Guesses 20M people affected. While the MM population is officially around 13M he's about right as there are a few million more in satellite towns in the surrounding provinces effectively part of the NCR.

Raffin

Four hundred or so more new cases announced yesterday, which included a backlog of 203. The 11,021 the highest daily total since April 11. Three labs late. Positivity up to 18.1% from 56.6k tested. The highest positivity since April 19.Tests coming along less at 50.8k.

Recoveries 9.2k

Deaths 162 with 94 RDs.

Active cases up to 76k

Severe 1,369, up 32 and Critical 761, up 18

NCR ICU 59%, down 2%. National ICU 62%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 2,823 up nearly 400
4A 1,864
CL 1,233
CV 1,049
WV 779, up 100+
NM 656, up 200+

Top 6 regions 76.3% (unchanged)

For the regions, NCR cities, provinces and other cities will do a summary for the past week later.

Quarantine levels

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/07/...august-8-to-22

Vaccination progress:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/quezo...-august-6-2021

QC less than half way to their target for fully vaccinated.
One of the slower NCR cities.

How does the Philippines compare in SE Asia?




DOH projections for the NCR:

At present the NCR has about 19k active cases.

Three possibilities presented by the DOH spox:


So both 2 and 3 weeks ECQ are expected by the DOH to lead to increased active cases. The two week option tripling active cases. Can the hospitals cope with that? Seems doubtful. So maybe it will be three weeks ECQ? The hospitals just about coping after some expansion of beds and movement of less severe patients, supply improvements etc
The chance of a five weeks ECQ to get a reduction should almost certainly be discounted.

Gazza-d

These granular lockdowns are like leaky sieves, the only way they will make any progress is to lock the whole country down again. The big problem with the increased transmissibility of the delta variant is locking people in their houses the whole family gets it at the same time.
​​

Raffin

The country was never in national lockdown. Early 2020 it was NCR and some surrounding provinces plus a few other areas in the Visayas and Mindanao. Some other areas had less restrictive quarantines but many had no quarantines at all. Then the less restrictive MECQ in the NCR and around in August. Politically and economically unacceptable.
I agree about the household spread. As with the Indian multi-generational households in the UK. Though at least it will be concentrated rather than around the city. They can then deal with it in Barangays like in Pasay earlier this year. That seemed to work.
I think they could have made some progress in Manila if vaccination levels were double what they are now at around one third but now there will be a very difficult few months before they can be of much help. All the other measures the DOH is talking about to reassure the public are just palliative until the vaccines get to a high percentage.
You then wonder can they vaccinate enough here to really control this virus? Present take up is not encouraging and Sinovac seems less effective all round.

Gazza-d

And they keep coming up with these unrealistic statements about community immunity, herd immunity, 50% etc. We all know that herd immunity for the delta variant is something like 80%. Who are they trying to kid, the public are themselves.

Raffin

The word they use now is protection. They have the very young population here on their side, but they will just pass it on to some not so young or compromised.
Seen nothing here to publicize the change in symptoms. Established from large numbers in the UK and elsewhere. Too similar to the common cold. Many could ignore.