Raffin

Nationwide positivity for last week 0.7% higher at 13.3%

NCR labs positivity very slightly down at 17.0%. Full MECQ effect will show in next week's rate.

Raffin

Manila and its surrounding area's reversion to GCQ after a 2 week vacation was so flagged up by admin officials I am hoping to find things outside this morning back to what they were before. Especially subdivision gates. There are several and the one nearest us gets closed under MECQ. It saves a 20 minute drive to access our favourite grocery.

Brief details were given, not by the President, but by his spokesman. Most businesses back, dine-in back and....religious gatherings can be at 30% capacity!
But no grand plan yet to fight the growing outbreak, especially in the NCR.

Given the situation in Manila the decision must add some cases, then more illnesses that need a hospital bed. Many hospitals at or near 70% capacity here:

https://rappler.com/nation/metro-man...el-august-2020

Apart from more and better testing it seems that contact tracing here is part of the problem. It's nearly all done manually at the local level. The DOH do not do it. More than 70k people have been hired by Dept of the Interior, but they have said they need many more. A contact tracing Czar was appointed in July.

As far as using apps Germany and Ireland are leading in Europe. As usual the UK still trialing. Many people have Smartphones, especially in the NCR, and it would seem that an IT system could be used here. The government have tried to use one but it seems not to be working, according anyway to Eliseo Rio Jr, who was an Under Secretary in the Dept of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) and who had another idea:

https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/06/...ective/731765/

In a later statement Rio gives more details on his contact with the Inter Agency Task Force. He is suggesting the decision had something to do with personal connections. Well, maybe, that is not uncommon here. Whether the lack of good contact tracing caused the virus spike here is debatable as there are some other issues with testing,poor reporting of data. In fact the late reporting of positive cases greatly reduces the ability to trace. But I think Rio makes a good observation on the workings of the IATF. They seem to be a closed group of experts with too many links to government.

https://rappler.com/nation/rio-says-...onavirus-spike

mikemike

contact tracing is of limited use in such a congested city. just take a look at the bloom in covid in Auckland who thought they were clear etc

I have my face shield to go with my mask, and I do not believe for one second that a virus will respect any of this armour

So back to work I will go, driving inside my primary 5 door face mark

I really think that some of these guys in charge think the virus crawls along on a surface using multiple sets of all fours to get at you!!

Raffin

Experiments show a good degree of protection from masks and a bit more from shields. The average,especially retired, Expat has little to fear unless they frequent crowded fresh markets or indoor areas. Direct water droplets are the main danger in all environments. Aerosol transmission can also occur indoors.

There have been some surprise outbreaks in NZ, China,Vietnam, Spain, France It is a tricky virus. A warning......Trump yesterday compared the US to NZ!

But in E Asia S Korea and Taiwan have done very well compared to other countries by employing widespread testing with track and trace. It's just been reported that in Manila only 5 contacts on average are now traced. Seems too low to be much use Figures for the UK claim 70 to 80% of contacts traced.

Raffin

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...for-strict-gcq

Supposedly back to GCQ..but..Q pass needed again. Hair can be cut but not nails,! Seniors must stay at home??
The IATF cleared gyms and internet cafes to re-open but at the last minute the Cabinet decided to keep them closed to appease frontliner groups, who really wanted a longer MECQ.
Only good thing is that the ridiculous motorbike shield is now not required for riders in the same household.

Hopefully these new rules will be at least clarified later, especially on Seniors.

The problem for us here in Paranaque is that the spokesman of the City Mayors who wants a tougher GCQ is our City Mayor. Seems they want to to help a President who hasn't got much of a plan to control the virus.

If they want to get the economy moving they had better scrap the Q pass in normal GCQ areas. It means only one named person can shop. So many big ticket purchases where both husband and wife are involved will be postponed. Yesterday the grocery we use was very lightly populated anyway.

We now have decisions being made by the IATF, the Cabinet and the City Mayors.

Gazza-d

Seniors haven't been allowed out under any of the quarantine levels so that's been since about mid march.

Raffin

Oh yes, they have for essential purposes under all the different Quarantines...see 7. below.. shopping, medical, financial etc. I've been out many times. Never been challenged anywhere..even in a DIY store or a Department Store, which you could argue are not essential shopping . A lot of Seniors can be always seen around. All groceries around here have kept their dedicated Senior check outs and lines are often long.

Google GCQ and see that people like the President's spokesman always leave out the exceptions to make it look look tough.

https://governmentph.com/gcq-guidelines/

Gazza-d

Once we went to MGCQ I have been out once or twice but you are only allowed out if you live alone and have nobody to shop for you. It also depends who is on an active checkpoint, the police tend to be more rigorous than the LGUs. I have been turned back when driving with my wife.

Raffin

Technically both of us shouldn't ever be out together, but we were not told off for that at the one checkpoint I was stopped at a few weeks ago. Nor at any other time.

Again we see rules being applied differently depending on where you are. My wife doesn't drive so if they ever double down here on the Seniors must stay at home it won/t be easy for her to get to the bigger groceries alone here using the much reduced public transport. Plenty of rich Seniors around our City who are also active so maybe they won't do that.

Gazza-d

I seem to recall that if you are in the car when you shouldn't be they fine you for technically a driving offence. I think the fine is something like 5000 pesos. Of course foreigners are held to a higher standard than locals.

Bealinehx

When I had a car I used to have ten 20 peso notes and a few coins in the coin box. Only stopped once a and drove off leaving a very disappointed crocodile, sorry enforcer.

Stokkevn

My missus played a blinder getting special passes for both of us to go shopping. I was the 'designated driver' as she did not drive and she was the 'designated shopper' as I did not speak the language and therefore was unable to understand what I was buying. Which when we needed them they passed inspection going through about 6 checkpoints.

Raffin

Another large rise in confirmed infections yesterday. They've now got another 14 labs operating so the testing should be increasing. Will know at the end of the week, but if so that's good.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/19/...week-data-show

An alarming weekly rise, although I think the figure is really for all healthcare, not just doctors and nurses. I suppose it shouldn't be surprising healthcare has contributed 5% of the total.

Deaths at "only" 49. In the NHS they are investigating over 600 deaths of doctors and nurses in relation to Covid. The great majority here have recovered. However I notice here a general disregard for the mounting evidence on possible long term effects of the illness. I wonder if they are all back at work as before?

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Maybe over 300,000 violators, but of those how many weren't wearing a mask? A month in jail? Maybe the breadwinner? At this time? They want to add to the jail population at a time when the policy is to reduce it and Covid cases inside. Better to bring them in for a seminar.

Bealinehx

Another snippet of good news. The authorities are/have removed the requirement for m/c's when carrying a passenger to have that useless separation screen. Perhaps the originators of that particular nonsense have made enough money from the exercise.

Raffin

Out in the local commercial area yesterday and can report that salons are open and doing both hair and nails. If you recall a previous announcement said no nails and hair dying. The hairdresser offered my wife a hair dye.

Observation: many more people now wearing face shield and mask. Though young people often tilting the face shield up. The small older type Mall here now requiring both to enter.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

Seniors are not all weak specimens and if they are out for essential purposes they are probably not in that category. Do hope the PUV drivers will have more sense and allow them on board. Everyone masked and shielded. Rather than subject them to walking along the so called sidewalks.

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...rus-cases.html

If indeed the methodology used by Ateneo is the same as that used in an established paper on unreported cases in the industrialised economies then even though their paper is not yet peer reviewed (that can take a long time) I think we can accept that there are now millions of unreported Covid cases here. With no widespread mass testing likely or ability to do excess death calculations this approach seems to be the only option to find out how bad things really are. As we read here the DOH reluctant to accept that.

The government seems desperate for a vaccine but I'm just wondering what will be the effect of all these unreported cases on any mass covid vaccination programme? People who already have the virus given more. Will they all be tested before they get the shots? Especially as by next year much more virus spread has occurred from the unreported.