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Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Paladin
Not without a crystal ball!!!
if I was THAT good I'd be a millionaire LOL!!! :D Dave |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Biddy
D'Oh! :D
And the other thing.....sell your house in the UK quick....IMHO UK housing market is on borrowed time(but that's another subject!!..LOL)!!!!!!!!!!! Dave |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Paladin
Sorry to disappoint!!! LOL :)
And the other thing.....sell your house in the UK quick....IMHO UK housing market is on borrowed time(but that's another subject!!..LOL)!!!!!!!!!!! Dave |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Biddy
Yeah, I'm just waiting to exchange contracts!
That'll be a weight off your mind then!!! Sold ours in Feb 05, in rented til we go now!!! Recently considered buying another but risk of market going down is so great now vs. chance it will go up my much IMHO. Also I feel going to NZ with a clean slate a good idea, also don't want to have to cover mortgage payments if house not let out etc etc. Dave |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Paladin
Biddy,
That'll be a weight off your mind then!!! Sold ours in Feb 05, in rented til we go now!!! Recently considered buying another but risk of market going down is so great now vs. chance it will go up my much IMHO. Also I feel going to NZ with a clean slate a good idea, also don't want to have to cover mortgage payments if house not let out etc etc. Dave |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Paladin
Hi Biddy,
For my work I manage investments from a technical analysis/charting perspective so I'll give you my 2 cents worth from what I can see from the charts available on HIFX.co.uk:- Very basic background info:- Foreign currency dealers love to speculate versus technical chart patterns ie you will often see periods of price rises or falls followed by the opposite to levels of 1/3, 2/3, 1/2, of the prior move. This is also often seen to what are called Fibonnacci Retracement levels(38.2% and 61.8% retracements). If a currency rebounds all the way then they often blow by past highs or lows by these same sort of ratios(Fibonnacci extensions). The NZ$ has strenghtened vs the £ down to an area just below 2/3 retracement from the near term low of +/-$3.70 from the high of +/-$2.20. Therefore I would expect to see consolidation around the $2.70 area. What is worrying is the consolidation occuring under that level around 2.55-2.70 area which may indicate that 2.70 is now an area of resistance for the £ and that we should expect the $ to strengthen further to possible retest the 2.20 level from 1996!!!! From a fundamental standpoint it feels like the potential is starting to lean towards a UK rate drop than increase although still finely balanced. NZ has higher base rates and may be a little behind the UK in the rate cycle(??), ie more possibility of rate hike in NZ than UK......(DON, WHAT DO YOU THINK???), therefore possibly leading to a conclusion NZ$ could strenghten more vs. the UK£. Just one viewpoint! Dave I am happy to take what we've got without trying to squeeze the last cent nor will be weepy if I'm wrong. :cool: |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Don
Makes a lot of sense. I am a consolidator, a momentum man, a mixture of anything useful from fundies or charts. I think NZD could easily be at the peak or already past it without a more aggressive immigration policy.
I am happy to take what we've got without trying to squeeze the last cent nor will be weepy if I'm wrong. :cool: Don, Sounds sensible! One can go broke trying to pick exact tops or bottoms. Dave |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
I bit the bullet and did a 6 month forward buy. Rate I got was NZD 2.65 to the GBP which is obviously worse than the spot rate by about 5c (ouch!) but that's the price you pay for the forward element.
For anyone interested, the reason I am doing this is to get some certainty on the exchange. If NZD weakens vs GBP over the next 6 months I am quids in, if it strengthens I have lost out. Plus I have not forward fixed everything we own in NZ in money terms, so that is a hedge as well. As it happens I think we did the various crosses the other way mostly at about NZD 3.20-NZD 2.95 so that helps pay for our foray into NZ. Good luck to all of us changing money from one currency to another! :) |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
QUOTE=Don]Good luck to all of us changing money from one currency to another! :)[/QUOTE]
We changed our NZD with Westpac into an offshore GBP account. Changed at .3800 so now am stuffed for a while. KAZ :mad: |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by kaz Hen
QUOTE=Don]Good luck to all of us changing money from one currency to another! :)
KAZ :mad:[/QUOTE] That's pretty much what I got, why are you unhappy? I guess the rate went against you in the last few days but only by a smidgen. |
Re: Where's the NZD (New Zealand Dollar) going?
Originally Posted by Don
We changed our NZD with Westpac into an offshore GBP account. Changed at .3800 so now am stuffed for a while.
KAZ :mad: Cause now I feel i can't change it back whenever I want to. But I know that it was not the way to make a quick buck, hopefully by the end of the year it will have swung back in my favour. KAZ |
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