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-   -   Vaccine - NZ strategy? (https://britishexpats.com/forum/new-zealand-83/vaccine-nz-strategy-935679/)

LittleGreyCat Nov 11th 2020 7:37 pm

Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
The world is excited about the prospect of a new vaccine (or several) to counter Covid-19.

Do you think that everyone in NZ should be vaccinated?
It would allow free flow of tourists again because they couldn't infect the locals.

If it becomes available, will you be taking it?

Mishclark Nov 12th 2020 3:53 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Definitely, but I'm a healthcare worker so I would expect to and want to do it..

chocolate cake Nov 12th 2020 5:06 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
So long as the virus is safe, yeah definitely.

Also not clear if any vaccine will give permanent cover, or temporary and need annual vax.

LittleGreyCat Nov 12th 2020 12:26 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Annual vaccination is still a better prospect than no vaccination, I assume.

Logistics is going to be the biggest problem.
You have to treat the whole population before the first to be vaccinated are due for their booster and from then on you are chasing your tail to make sure that everyone is covered.

This implies that you might not be able to open up the country until you are well into, or have completed, the first cycle.
Also only allow vaccinated travellers to enter.

Assuming that the vaccine is good for one year.
Population is around 4.8 million at the moment.
Assume 5.2 million for easier numbers.
You need to vaccinate 0.1 million people per week to do everyone in a year.
100,000 people a week.
Hmmm....if you work a 8 hour day 7 days a week (UK proposal is 12 hours per clinic) that gives you 56 hours per vaccinator.
Assume time off for coffee and a pee that gives you (for ease) 50 hours per week.
100,000 divided by 50 gives you.....2,000 dedicated vaccinators working flat out 8 hours a day 7 days a week 365/6 days a year.
Finger in the air says 3,000 to be sustainable with weekends, holidays, sick pay etc.
Add at least 2 support staff per head to do the booking in and other admin.

9,000 people full time with 2,000 Covid-secure locations.

I wonder how many trained people there are who can be spared from other health care duties, and how many suitable locations there are across NZ?
[Numbers, of course, subject to checking and the usual errors.]

jarv5116 Nov 12th 2020 4:04 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by LittleGreyCat (Post 12934890)
Annual vaccination is still a better prospect than no vaccination, I assume.

Logistics is going to be the biggest problem.
You have to treat the whole population before the first to be vaccinated are due for their booster and from then on you are chasing your tail to make sure that everyone is covered.

This implies that you might not be able to open up the country until you are well into, or have completed, the first cycle.
Also only allow vaccinated travellers to enter.

Assuming that the vaccine is good for one year.
Population is around 4.8 million at the moment.
Assume 5.2 million for easier numbers.
You need to vaccinate 0.1 million people per week to do everyone in a year.
100,000 people a week.
Hmmm....if you work a 8 hour day 7 days a week (UK proposal is 12 hours per clinic) that gives you 56 hours per vaccinator.
Assume time off for coffee and a pee that gives you (for ease) 50 hours per week.
100,000 divided by 50 gives you.....2,000 dedicated vaccinators working flat out 8 hours a day 7 days a week 365/6 days a year.
Finger in the air says 3,000 to be sustainable with weekends, holidays, sick pay etc.
Add at least 2 support staff per head to do the booking in and other admin.

9,000 people full time with 2,000 Covid-secure locations.

I wonder how many trained people there are who can be spared from other health care duties, and how many suitable locations there are across NZ?
[Numbers, of course, subject to checking and the usual errors.]

those numbers your pumping out are crazy for NZ.
You don't need to vaccine 100% of the population in NZ to have an effect.
It will be the same as the Flu jab. the elderly and people with under laying health conditions and pregnant women are priority.
Then what ever is left vaccine wise people can have.
Your thinking along the lines of TB, polio and meningitis.
You need to think more Flu vaccine.
It's not the virus countries are worried about it's the healthcare system get over run with elderly and people with under laying health conditions the same as the Flu.

LittleGreyCat Nov 12th 2020 4:20 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Covid is nothing like the flu.
Far more deadly, very damaging for those with Long Covid.
The aim all along has been to develop herd immunity.
This requires at least 75% of the population to be immune, preferably far more.

It is akin to wiping out measles, polio etc.

Flu doesn't consume tissues like heart, lungs, liver, kidneys, pancreas, optic nerve, brain.
Flu doesn't leave cripples in its wake.
BMJ view of Long Covid

Numbers like 600,000 Long Covid sufferers have been quoted for the UK.
NZ won't have much experience of this because of the very low incidence of infection.

IMHO NZ doesn't want to expose the majority of the population to Covid-19 because it is "just like the flu".
NZ should be aiming for minimal infection.
Doing an outstanding job to date.

Is the general view that once you can immunise the elderly and very vulnerable you should just "let it rip"?

jarv5116 Nov 12th 2020 4:49 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by LittleGreyCat (Post 12935001)
Covid is nothing like the flu.
Far more deadly, very damaging for those with Long Covid.
The aim all along has been to develop herd immunity.
This requires at least 75% of the population to be immune, preferably far more.

It is akin to wiping out measles, polio etc.

Flu doesn't consume tissues like heart, lungs, liver, kidneys, pancreas, optic nerve, brain.
Flu doesn't leave cripples in its wake.
BMJ view of Long Covid

Numbers like 600,000 Long Covid sufferers have been quoted for the UK.
NZ won't have much experience of this because of the very low incidence of infection.

IMHO NZ doesn't want to expose the majority of the population to Covid-19 because it is "just like the flu".
NZ should be aiming for minimal infection.
Doing an outstanding job to date.

Is the general view that once you can immunise the elderly and very vulnerable you should just "let it rip"?

Its health care systems getting over run that's the problem.
99% of people on ICU wards are elderly and people with under laying health conditions that don't have a strong enough immune system to fight it.
6 people in my family have had it back home.
yes they were in bed for 2 weeks but recovered.
Its the elderly and people with conditions that need the vaccine.
Even if the vaccine is available do you think 100% will want to take it?
Its like now there one case and there ready for locking down Auckland

Charismatic Nov 12th 2020 7:26 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Unquarantined travel in three stages I'd imagine:
1. Travellers had the vaccination and it's still current. Then you pass a Covid-19 test before boarding the flight and upon arrival some time later (as per Department of Health recommendations.)
2. Travellers had the vaccination and it's still current.
3. The Department of Health provides guidance to the New Zealand Government that a high enough proportion of New Zealands population has been vaccinated to return to business as usual (ideally they'd have a plan to do this within Q1, 2021.)

Managed isolation should be continued at an appropriate scale until a commercially viable heat stable vaccine is available globally or we get to #3.

Charismatic Nov 13th 2020 2:51 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by LittleGreyCat (Post 12935001)
Is the general view that once you can immunise the elderly and very vulnerable you should just "let it rip"?

​​​​​​There is a balance to be struck. I think we have to recognise that not all of the population will opt to be immunised. Comes down to personal responsibility, the government can provide the vaccination service (and perhaps allow some reasonable interim period to roll that out), but can concurrently announce the resumption of normal border operations within a fixed time period (e.g. 30, 60 or 90 days). The government has a wider societal responsibility it needs to balance which takes into account not just healthcare but business and industry as well as the reunion of families with around a quarter of this countries population having been born abroad.

As I said I think that you'll find quarantine free travel will resume once the vaccine is rolled out as case-by-case people can prove they have been vaccinated prior to entry. It seems Western countries are looking at doing most of this work in Q1, 2021 (e.g. Germany already has contracts with Pfizer alone to provide the 90m vaccinations it requires to do it's entire population to be delivered in Q1.) However for other countries they will need to wait for a heat-stable vaccine (the WHO indicates that by the end of Q2, 2021 it expect vaccibes will be globally available.)

Be happy we live in a country wealthy enough to afford cold-supply chains and with the resources to vaccinate a large proportion of the population rapidly. :)

BEVS Nov 13th 2020 3:03 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by LittleGreyCat (Post 12934679)
Do you think that everyone in NZ should be vaccinated?

As in compulsory? Not sure on that one.


It would allow free flow of tourists again because they couldn't infect the locals.
... and certainly not for that .
I would prefer NZ really and truly rethinks its freeflow tourism thing to something of a little more discerning and exclusive product. We have been utterly overrun with manic tourists to the detriment of the land, its wildlife and in some cases our own lives. NZ needs more diversity.
In any case infected people should not be leaving their own land of residence. I find the attitude of the UK in this quite bizarre.


If it becomes available, will you be taking it?
Not unless it is properly trialled and proven. I have seen what "almost proven" meds can do to a person. It was not good.

BEVS Nov 13th 2020 3:06 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by jarv5116 (Post 12934995)
You need to think more Flu vaccine.
It's not the virus countries are worried about it's the healthcare system get over run with elderly and people with under laying health conditions the same as the Flu.

I agree about healthcare systems. I will state though that coronavirus is nothing at all like the flu in any way other than to be contagious. Think more smallpox in dealing with this.


Bo-Jangles Nov 13th 2020 7:09 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
I would fancy that NZs ability to deliver a couple of million vaccines in a short space of time is more doable than most other countries; last year 1.35 million doses of influenza vaccine were distributed and that's done in a relatively tight timeframe with all hands to the pump at GPs and Pharmacies and mass advertising campaigns to encourage folks to get vaxxed. Hospitals and health care centres can quite easily gear up with some additional clinic space and staff, much as they did for the Measles last year and this year for Covid testing with drive throughs and such like set up very quickly and without the usual fuss about how much it was costing.

Hospitals and GPs likely would prioritise their staff, the elderly and vulnerable, much as they did with flu vaccines this year as they were due around the same time when Covid-19 started to emerge.

chocolate cake Nov 17th 2020 9:04 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
With the NZ governments elimination strategy, when a safe vaccine is available, I don't see how accepting say 2/3rds vaccination rate can fly.

You can argue until the cows come home about how debilitating it is, but there's little doubt that it's more contagious than flu, with catching it from lift buttons etc, and it spreading quickly. Doing that, would effectively be letting it rip.

Surely rates into the 90% are going to be needed, and some the anti-vaxers are going to need to come to the table.

Charismatic Nov 17th 2020 1:20 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
You can't force someone of sound mind to be subjected to a medical treatment if they object. You can only inform them and discuss their concearns. However there will be some situations where it may be a prerequisite to avoid diseases spreading (e.g. attending school, rest homes etc.)

Usually as long as you get a high enough proportion of the population vaccinated the immunity it confers limits the scale of outbreaks as vaccination acts as a firebreak. The place where you might get issues is when you have a lot of people in close proximity who don't get immunised for some reason (e.g. a church with certain religious beliefs.)

chocolate cake Nov 18th 2020 9:17 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Can't you? if mask wearing can be enforced, I don't see why not practically .

Yep, it could be a requirement, to be able to claim any benefits, ACC cover, take a flight, etc.

Sure, we need to see it's safe, but then surely it's the only way we'll be able to open our borders again, We can't isolate North Korea or Albanian like for ever when the world returns to some kind of normality.

Otherwise we'll be having yet more of these lockdowns, South Australia months without community cases, now in almost martial lockdown for minimum 6 days, stay in the house and absolutely no exercise outdoors,
Vaccine cost will be enormous no doubt, but tiny in comparison to continual lockdowns, the partial Auckland CBD advised closure last Friday was estimated to cost $10 million

Anti-vaxers with the MMR vaccine and Dr Wakefield in the UK and the like, caused global vaccine scare with the resultant decrease in immunisation numbers and ultimately lead to increased measles cases which could have been avoided. Ultimately he was found to have personal interests, his work discredited and struck off the medical register.

LittleGreyCat Nov 18th 2020 11:18 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
I agree that you cannot physically constrain someone then forcibly administer a vaccine without their consent.
That way lies a whole world of hurt if such a principle was established.

I also agree that passive enforcement seems very reasonable.
Don't get vaccinated?
Don't get to go in bars, theatres, restaurants or anywhere else where there are crowds.
Don't get to fly.
Of course, where to draw the line is as usual a very difficult one.
Do you ban people from busses and trains if they are not vaccinated?
How do you enforce this?
Venues with an entry point (tickets or just a doorway) are relatively easy to enforce.
More open things, especially trains with multiple doors and un-staffed stations, are virtually impossible to police as they stand. You would have to go back to enclosed platforms, ticket barriers and ticket inspectors.
Staff on all busses checking and refusing passengers. A lot more staff required, slower access, higher cost.

There is also the personal privacy issue.
If everyone has to carry an up to date vaccine certificate to be served/allowed entry this does move more towards a police state.
However personal freedom should not include the freedom to infect innocent passers by.
In the same way as free speech doesn't allow you to libel and slander and incite terrorism with no penalty.

Complicated, isn't it?

Charismatic Nov 18th 2020 12:33 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
The level of effectiveness of the early vaccines is being reported as really good being circa 95% even in the over 65 age group.

Timmy Chch Nov 18th 2020 4:00 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Pfeiffer come out and say 90% last week, their competitor this week says theirs is 95% (and doesn't have to be kept at -80°C) and now Pfeiffer say oh the latest figures are also 95% - funny that.
Remember it wont just be people who choose to have the vaccination and those who refuse, there will be a fair amount of medically unable to comply so there will be 3 groups of people. Would an exemption note be ok for that person to fly or do they get banned with the refusers?

Charismatic Nov 18th 2020 6:07 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Pfizer (Germany) initially reported "more than 90%" and clarified with more data that it was 95%. That vaccine requires extreme refrigeration. The​​​​ Moderna (US) one was reported to be 95% effective and requires less extreme refrigeration but will be delivered later.

What has accelerated development is having a second wave. They needed to wait for their control groups to catch the virus which has now happened so data is coming thick and fast.

I was surprised how cheaply they are marketed, under $40 USD per person.

chocolate cake Nov 19th 2020 9:02 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by Charismatic (Post 12937177)
Pfizer (Germany) initially reported "more than 90%" and clarified with more data that it was 95%. That vaccine requires extreme refrigeration. The​​​​ Moderna (US) one was reported to be 95% effective and requires less extreme refrigeration but will be delivered later.

What has accelerated development is having a second wave. They needed to wait for their control groups to catch the virus which has now happened so data is coming thick and fast.

I was surprised how cheaply they are marketed, under $40 USD per person.

Yeah, Pfizer is also US company, though their vaccine is developed with a smaller German Company

Cost wise though, $40 a person will soon tot up for them! Whomever ends up supplying these will get loads of advertisement, kudos and goodwill and make it back in bucket loads.

NZ have reputably purchased a large amount of the Pfizer vaccine, none of the Moderna (yet) and larger amount of a J&J vaccine who have yet to announce 3rd trial results.

Charismatic Nov 19th 2020 11:55 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
The J&J vaccine is a traditional heat-stable and a one-shot type deal but won't be delivered until Q3, 2021. It's probably a good idea to mitigate risk by signing multiple deals, certainly New Zealand will have to be prepared to not just do an initial surge so borders can reopen, but continuously vaccinate, in order to keep their rates high enough to stop the virus from spreading.

At $40 I'd pay myself.

LittleGreyCat Nov 19th 2020 3:42 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Given the future wide choice of vaccines, and the different designs, I wonder how soon they will be able to test the effect of receiving a different vaccine from your initial one?
Could you have an RNA one then a traditional one as a booster?
Or are you tied to the first vaccine that you are given?

Charismatic Nov 19th 2020 9:09 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by LittleGreyCat (Post 12937439)
Could you have an RNA one then a traditional one as a booster?

No reason I can see why not, it's the antigen that you develop antibodies to and almost all viruses are RNA based so...

scot47 Nov 21st 2020 8:17 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Do they have a strategy ? As far as I can see the whole world is pretending that they know what is happening but we know Diddley-squat !

Charismatic Nov 22nd 2020 6:13 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Looks like the US plans to begin vaccinating on the 11th or 12th of December if the vaccine is approved according to the BBC.

Also they have approved the monoclonal antibody treatment.

Charismatic Nov 23rd 2020 6:41 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
And the full Oxford Univeristy/AstraZeneca results are in. 70% protection with one shot and 90% with two shots. Just needs to be submitted and reviewed.

They have pre-produced four million doses ready for delivery if it gets signed off by regulators.

Charismatic Nov 23rd 2020 6:47 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
And the full Oxford Univeristy/AstraZeneca results are in. 70% protection with one shot and 90% with two shots. Just needs to be submitted and reviewed. They have already pre-produced four million doses ready for delivery if it gets signed off by regulators.

That one just requires normal refrigeration so is important for countries which can't afford these extreme cold chain solutions.

chocolate cake Nov 25th 2020 5:42 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
I see Qantas announced yesterday that having a vaccination will be required to fly internationally at some point in the future.

Hardily surprising, can’t see the furore from some. Other airlines are bound to follow.
Ought to be internal too.

Charismatic Nov 26th 2020 6:14 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
RNZ published a guide to what is currently known about the Covid-19 vaccine rollout.


I was reading an interesting study of contact tracing data the other day (based on 85k cases and 500k contacts) that has just been published on transmission:
71% of people who contracted the disease did not pass it on at all but of the remainder 8% where responsible for 60% of the total cases where it was contracted onwards. So a minority of people, likely not taking appropriate precautions, are responsible for most transmission.

It also pointed to interesting information on settings:
- If you sat next to someone in a household setting that has Covid-19 there would only be a 1 in 10 chance of contracting the disease.
- If you sat next to someone in a community setting you would only have a 1 in 40 chance of getting it from them.
- If you where travelling (train, aircraft, bus etc.) with someone and you where 3 rows away from them for 6 hours you would have a 79% chance of catching it from them and that's if wearing masks is mandatory!

Charismatic Nov 30th 2020 2:54 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Moderna hands in its homework to EU and US regulators, indicates final results over 94% effective.

BEVS Nov 30th 2020 8:00 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by scot47 (Post 12938255)
Do they have a strategy ? As far as I can see the whole world is pretending that they know what is happening but we know Diddley-squat !

Quite. It is day by day; week by week. Be flexible and do the best with whatever info is available at that precise time.

Charismatic Dec 2nd 2020 6:31 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Pfizer approved, immunisation to start "within days".

Justcol Dec 2nd 2020 7:15 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by Charismatic (Post 12941977)
Pfizer approved, immunisation to start "within days".

It took 185 years to eradicate smallpox, let's hope whatever the plan is, it's got a shorter timescale


BEVS Dec 3rd 2020 7:26 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by Justcol (Post 12941989)
It took 185 years to eradicate smallpox, let's hope whatever the plan is, it's got a shorter timescale


Panic and desperation.

Charismatic Dec 3rd 2020 11:44 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
The most recent update from Germany was interesting, they have a population of 83 million and they will take delivery of 73m doses of Pfizer vaccine in Q1 so they'll pretty much get half the population done at least.

I heard the Prime Minister speaking on radio the other day and she was still surprisingly circumspect about the question of international travel even with vaccines and testing available. :huh:

BEVS Dec 4th 2020 5:10 am

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 
Good.

Justcol Dec 4th 2020 7:31 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by Charismatic (Post 12942634)
The most recent update from Germany was interesting, they have a population of 83 million and they will take delivery of 73m doses of Pfizer vaccine in Q1 so they'll pretty much get half the population done at least.

I heard the Prime Minister speaking on radio the other day and she was still surprisingly circumspect about the question of international travel even with vaccines and testing available. :huh:

Testing hasnt proved to be a very good indicator, hence the need for quarantine.
Fighting covid is all queen Jacinda has to keep her going, she's not going to let a little thing like the economy blot her copybook

BEVS Dec 4th 2020 9:46 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by Justcol (Post 12942943)
Testing hasnt proved to be a very good indicator, hence the need for quarantine.

Ums. The testing type done here is actually quite accurate. It is the virus incubation period that is a bit of a problemo hence the need to double test . Even then every virus in every person will be a bit different in the way it behaves. I see some countries have buckled re quarantine requirements both for people entering from without and to control outbreaks from within. It needs to be a good two weeks.

Now if you were talking of the antigen tests then I would agree , that seems to be rather hit and miss.

I realise you have a bee in your bonnet over JA as PM for whatever reason as she does seem to engender rage in ,mostly , midde aged men; or perhaps it is the entire Labour party. Whichever , it really doesn't matter. We all have our differing outlook politically. What everyone in NZ should be very pleased with though is that borders were shut; outbreaks contained. It could have been very very different for this small community based island nation.

As for the economy - now is the time to rethink . Too many eggs in one or two baskets is never going to be OK overall as NZ saw when the UK joined the Common Market.

Look. International travel has been changed & that might not be such a bad thing from what has been seen re mass tourism and environmental damage. It might be better if people stopped railing against that .

The vaccine? I can wait.





Charismatic Dec 4th 2020 11:37 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by BEVS (Post 12942971)
As for the economy - now is the time to rethink . Too many eggs in one or two baskets is never going to be OK overall as NZ saw when the UK joined the Common Market.

Housing is our economy now. We dont need to make things people want to buy or worry about issues as crass as productivity, we can just sell houses to each other at ever increasing prices. :p

BEVS Dec 4th 2020 11:43 pm

Re: Vaccine - NZ strategy?
 

Originally Posted by Charismatic (Post 12942998)
Housing is our economy now. We dont need to make things people want to buy or worry about issues as crass as productivity, we can just sell houses to each other at ever increasing prices.

*sigh*


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