Kippers

All the oil producing countries are selling down their dollars reserves, that's why the dollar is falling. If any one of them tried to unload all their dollars at once, the price would simply collapse. This is the big fear. No country holding dollars wants to see it's savings disappear, so they are all tip-toeing around shifting a little at a time hoping they don't end up with worthless bits of paper.


Wealthy insiders like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates have been moving out of shares and US dollars for some time.

Here's more evidence:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12072006...paul_tharp.htm

Incidentally, I think the stock market was doing very nicely just before the 1929 crash (and 1987).

Kip

brussels_sprout

No as my article states Chavez despite his rhetoric has always held US Dollars, after a period of dollar weakness, the US economy will have a soft landing and the US dollar will start to go up (and gold will plummet !)

brussels_sprout

Maybe we will see, but what i see is a new record high in the Stock Market almost every week ! The facts just don't bear out anything you say, same as the faltering POG does not corroborate anything Paladin has been saying (what are your motives ?)

Kippers

US stock market rising on a falling dollar means the price of shares is matching the decrease in value of the dollar. i.e. they are rising against the US $ but not against other currencies, just holding their value.
Same with oil. The price will rise as the dollar falls so oil producers don't loose out, and the reason oil producers want out of the dollar.
For example:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6190865.stm

Interesting article that the US may be forced to abandon the dollar as it's currency to save itself:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=53350


My motives?
I don't have any interest in gold if that's what you mean.
Can't see it being of practicle use as a currency. There isn't enough for everyday use. Anyway, if I had lots and you didn't, you might hit me very hard and take it

Personally, I think land is the only safe option.
Just enough for a family because any more and that might cause trouble too.

I'm looking for some now


Kip

brussels_sprout

What nonsense!, all world stock markets have gone up (LSE especially in Pounds and Japanese SM in Yen) and are all at record highs ! Gold has dropped significantly in last 6 months ! The price of US Housing and land is falling like a stone , this may be followed in near future by Europe and maybe NZ/Oz ? The governments have been printing money in the last few years , too much and lending it for house purchases, bought on record low interest rates, houses/land are vastly overpriced historically due to these low interest rates. So beware!
Commodities are increasing in price due to high consumption by China and India, as i have said before, only world tension will really make the Gold Price mount substantially.

Biscuits

I assure you that the price of land and housing in Austin is not falling.

Most areas in the US that may be experiencing a "correction" in the real estate market were also the areas that have appreciated exponentially over the past few years.

In my opinion, if your property is worth 300% more than it was in 2003 but then suddenly falls 20% in value, you should still be quite pleased with the net return - unless you bought at the top ...


-Biscuits

brussels_sprout

http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...ce-chart_x.htm

Projected house price drops in US cities, expected to be up to 20% next year ! Beware !

Biscuits

That link may be 100% accurate but its forecast is still, to me, an acceptable "loss" in markets that have rapidly appreciated over the past several years.

When articles, for instance, discuss the average home in Hawaii falling in price over the past five consecutive months - while failing to emphasize the 36 previous months of strong appreciation - it seems a little sensational. Three steps forward, one step back, is still a net gain.

For the most part, markets that were not red-hot over the past 5-years (e.g. Texas) did not seem to be present on that list and are either holding their own or appreciating.

-Biscuits

Kippers

Sorry but I thought we were talking about the US economy and the falling dollar, and what is this fixation with gold?

Yes, that's right! Too much money looking for somewhere to go and one reason for the rise in stocks. People getting out of property (in the US) and moving into stocks.


Kip

Kippers

Yes, but what about all the people that borrowed 100% to purchase their house, and investors caught holding property they paid too much for, and builders who can't sell their spec houses?
You are only OK if you've owned your house for some time and you weren't silly enough to use your house as security to buy a new SUV or a second holiday home, or pay for you kids education etc.

Falling house prices will have a severe impact on the economy as so much of the housing market is about borrowed money which now won't get repaid. We're talking about wealth destruction here.

The impact must be across the whole economy.

Kip

Biscuits

Yes, those people may be financially harmed but that is always the case when one is trying to invest. Nobody was guaranteed returns with real estate just as they are not guaranteed results from stocks or precious metals.

Moreover, "silly people" and their money are soon parted...or something like that.

I can't decide how big of an impact falling house prices may have on the economy or who the macro losers are if banks foreclose on an upside-down property. Is it the creditor or the debtor who should be worried?

What I can attest to is that the US Dollar is getting absolutely destroyed against the NZ Dollar and it probably does have a lot to do with what you and Paladin have been discussing.

Back in early September of 2006, I pretended to sell my house and exchanged $700,000 USD into over $1,100,000 NZD. As I write this post, that same $700,000 USD is worth $1,004,000 NZD. You tell me, is the evaporation of $96,000 NZD (or $67,000 USD) in less than four months something to worry about?

If I were liquid and knew how to trade FOREX and would have leveraged my full nut against the USD in early September, I think I may have made somewhere around $10,000,000 by now.


-Biscuits

Kippers

The recent wisdom from 'those in the know' was that the NZ dollar would fall to US 50cents.
So much for experts

Are you still planning a move over here?

Kip

Biscuits

I am seriously considering it. I just spoke with a fellow Texan who has been in Auckland (Parnell) for the past two years and he was pretty happy. He said the weather from June-August stinks but everything else was dandy.

-Biscuits

ssnjeff

Sorry to interrupt, but can anyone change a fiver

ssnjeff

Jack you old sea dog, good to see you still keep up to date on the financial side of things must be a throw back from the roving galleon days?
As for the stars, what ever next a job in McDonald's, if your skimmer mates could see you now