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The state of the GBP

The state of the GBP

Old Jan 7th 2009, 6:55 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by simonmarkellis
If it ever gets up to $3.80 i'm selling my mother!!!
I just got pounds @ $2.50 (0.401 bank sell rate);
What are the odds to make a profit in the next two months? After that I need the funds. The interest rate for term deposits is a disgrace (5% p.a), I hope to make the 5% in two months. Am I being so unrealistic?
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 12:50 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

OH has just texted me to say that UK interest rates are down again to 1.5%. The lowest level in the banks 315 year history.

Well at least our UK mortgage will be below £100 a month
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 12:56 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by nukiwi
OH has just texted me to say that UK interest rates are down again to 1.5%. The lowest level in the banks 315 year history.

Well at least our UK mortgage will be below £100 a month
Yup and the Pound is strengthening because the vibe is 'that's it for cuts for a while' and that this cut could have been bigger

Major issue now impacting currencies gouing forward is not interest rates because they are all so low, but the state of the national ecconomies.

Same is also true for hosue prices....it's going to depend on how deep the recession is now and how many job losses there are.

The old arab curse seems appropriate these days....'May you live in interesting times!'
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 7:53 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by Wooly_Cow
Yup and the Pound is strengthening because the vibe is 'that's it for cuts for a while' and that this cut could have been bigger

Major issue now impacting currencies gouing forward is not interest rates because they are all so low, but the state of the national ecconomies.
Thats crap expect another cut by feb and the pound is only gaining because other currencies are getting worse as the recession bits in europe..

As for jobs in Jan and Feb expect a bloodbath
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 8:00 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

As i look at it it sat at £2.58 which is ok.
sure its been higher but its not far off its average.
If you want £2.80 just tell your broker, he'll swap it straight away
as soon as it spikes

Last edited by Justcol; Jan 9th 2009 at 8:04 am.
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 8:53 am
  #21  
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

The latest rate drop in the UK ain't going to help exchange rates, but as with all investments, you win if you can afford to choose your time. We've still got quite a lot of money in the UK, but I'm refusing to stress about it. We don't need it - yet - so I'll move it when the situation improves. That said, I acknowledge it could take years.....

Mind you, we **did** manage to get a sizeable amount on term deposit at 6.5% just before the last NZ rate drop, so what we're losing on the swings....
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 12:32 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by Genesis
I cannot bear (or afford!!) to throw away cash at the current derisory rates.

Any positivism on the horizon?

It was at $2.7 when I changed some Sterling on Wednesday. That was before yesterday's base rate cut so no idea what's happened since then, but that is a fairly good rate historically IMO. We got just under $2.5 when we changed some early December.

Incidentally, further interest rate cuts are quite possible in the UK. 1% was anticipated yesterday so depending on how many businesses fold over the next 4 weeks, a further cut in February could be on the cards. However the Govt may have started printing more money by then.

Scary how NZ went into recession before the UK, but the effects in the UK are much more visible and unfolding rapidly. Having said that we know of two very scary house price stories in NZ which I haven't heard in the UK. Good friends in Auckland had a final offer rejected at $700k on a house (in Milford, North Shore) in October 2007, that eventually realised $450k almost a year later (Sept 08). Obviously they are delighted they didn't buy it. Additionally their friends sold a house in Castor Bay just before Xmas at $850k that was on the market at $1.2m, with a QV of $1.1m.
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 2:40 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

The £ will tank out and make it easier to get the people of the UK to accept the €uro .. we are in the death throes of the £
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 5:33 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

[QUOTE=uk+kiwi;7145013]It was at $2.7 when I changed some Sterling on Wednesday. That was before yesterday's base rate cut so no idea what's happened since then, but that is a fairly good rate historically IMO. We got just under $2.5 when we changed some early December.

Where did you get 2.7 this week? HIFx hasn't had that since 17th Dec?
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 5:34 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by Expatnbob
The £ will tank out and make it easier to get the people of the UK to accept the €uro .. we are in the death throes of the £
Its gone from 2.45 ish to just under $2.60 in 2-3 days..there's still some life in the old dog yet.
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Old Jan 9th 2009, 7:46 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

[QUOTE=Genesis;7146032]
Originally Posted by uk+kiwi
It was at $2.7 when I changed some Sterling on Wednesday. That was before yesterday's base rate cut so no idea what's happened since then, but that is a fairly good rate historically IMO. We got just under $2.5 when we changed some early December.

Where did you get 2.7 this week? HIFx hasn't had that since 17th Dec?

Sainsburys! The lady who served me did tell me at the time that the markets were doing funny things that day. There had been a big movement in the Aus & NZD overnight apparently.
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Old Jan 10th 2009, 4:09 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by eddie_nz
Thats crap expect another cut by feb and the pound is only gaining because other currencies are getting worse as the recession bits in europe..

As for jobs in Jan and Feb expect a bloodbath
I based my statements on comments made on Thursday by the EEF

"Manufacturers' association EEF said the move was "too timid", and that the Bank should have cut rates further. "

and Hugh Pym's opinion (BBC)

"BBC economics editor Hugh Pym said the Bank was now being more cautious after the sharp cuts in interest rates in November and December.

"There is a hint in its statement that it may sit tight for a while to assess the impact of the big reductions over the last couple of months," he said. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7817453.stm

Whilst I agree that the recent strength in the Euro has abated for the moment the trade weighted index of sterling went up on Thursday after the cut.

I beleive that a 0.5 cut was already factored into the market and that the perception was that the BoE would wait and see.

As you will be aware data since then including todays news that the UK ecconomy contracted by 1.5% in the last 3 months may push the BoE to act earlier but now the relative differentials between national base rates are small, the main influence on currency trader descsions will be the relative state of the ecconomies.

What I perhaps should have said was that the previous statement was my opinion (but frankly I would take that as read).

I respect your opinions, and your right to debate mine, but please refrain from calling them crap!!
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Old Jan 11th 2009, 8:58 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by eddie_nz
Thats crap expect another cut by feb and the pound is only gaining because other currencies are getting worse as the recession bits in europe..

As for jobs in Jan and Feb expect a bloodbath
Eddies on the ball here
Also id like to add, you shouldnt just look at whats happening with the currencies alone, there are many factors including commodities and war that will affect matters relating to currency.
There is the underlying fact that the powers that be want the UK in the Euro, it will go someday, and I personally feel that that day is firmly in view now. (maybe a year at least) . At the end of the day its only a piece of paper with a `belief`attached to it.

Last edited by Expatnbob; Jan 11th 2009 at 9:03 am. Reason: spelling
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Old Jan 13th 2009, 8:24 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by Expatnbob
Eddies on the ball here
Also id like to add, you shouldnt just look at whats happening with the currencies alone, there are many factors including commodities and war that will affect matters relating to currency.
There is the underlying fact that the powers that be want the UK in the Euro, it will go someday, and I personally feel that that day is firmly in view now. (maybe a year at least) . At the end of the day its only a piece of paper with a `belief`attached to it.
What a roller coaster...as I type the GBP is almost $2.65!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It was $2.45 7 days ago. NZ's economy is looking reallllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllly bad, the euro is faltering, oil's going south, NZ's primed to drop % rate at the end of the month and there's a new US president. The middle east is about as stable as the San Andreas Fault............as Thunderbirds used to say, anything could happen in the next 5 minutes..or was it Stingray?
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Old Jan 14th 2009, 3:40 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

on XE.com:

1.00 GBP = 2.68765 NZD
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