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The state of the GBP

The state of the GBP

Old Jan 5th 2009, 12:30 am
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Default The state of the GBP

Does anyone have any guess as to how low the GBP will go? It appears to be sliding into oblivion. The euro is worth more than the GBP now after forex fees so I am told. The GBP has been as low as $2.20 ish in the past..it appears to be heading there fast and I am of the opinion it will be there for the long haul unless the kiwi$ has a pounding.

I understand the BoE is in line to drop interest rates further..thus further weakening the GBP. I guess only the very rich leave the UK now for a holiday such is the shite echange rate.

Is anyone thinking of changing any substantial amounts at the moment? I for one am holing up all my UK funds for the forseeable future...probably for a number of years. I took such a hit on the finance cos last year I cannot bear (or afford!!) to throw away cash at the current derisory rates.

Any positivism on the horizon?
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 2:24 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

No expert on currency either past or present, but is the Kiwi dollar strong enough to stay high for such a long time? If the country is too reliant on it's export market especially to the US, can't see it staying that strong for the long haul... Might go lower still, but reckon it'll start changing by march... So says my crystal ball anywho!!!
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 4:28 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by simonmarkellis View Post
No expert on currency either past or present, but is the Kiwi dollar strong enough to stay high for such a long time? If the country is too reliant on it's export market especially to the US, can't see it staying that strong for the long haul... Might go lower still, but reckon it'll start changing by march... So says my crystal ball anywho!!!
It is far more complex that that and it simply isn't a case of the NZD being strong against the GBP.

The GBP is a much weakened currency against all currencies.

IMO however, it is not weak, it has just been overvalued for far too long and is now at a more correct level.

Lets not forget that the British economy is pretty much screwed. Britain doesn't make anything anymore, it seems entirely reliant on state sector jobs that make nothing and that therefore (while they may deliver a service) actually add no value to the economy as a whole - they just require more taxation revenue to pay for them. Combine that with a generation of no-hopers who think it's cool to fail, are happy to take what's given to them, aspire to nothing and the future looks rather bleak.
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 6:02 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by sr71 View Post
It is far more complex that that and it simply isn't a case of the NZD being strong against the GBP.

The GBP is a much weakened currency against all currencies.

IMO however, it is not weak, it has just been overvalued for far too long and is now at a more correct level.

Lets not forget that the British economy is pretty much screwed. Britain doesn't make anything anymore, it seems entirely reliant on state sector jobs that make nothing and that therefore (while they may deliver a service) actually add no value to the economy as a whole - they just require more taxation revenue to pay for them. Combine that with a generation of no-hopers who think it's cool to fail, are happy to take what's given to them, aspire to nothing and the future looks rather bleak.


Ho hum, I'll get my coat then...what a twat I was not buying at $2.80!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 9:48 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

It's still possible it will come back, because UK interest rates don't have much further to go (can't go below zero!) and their fall is probably already priced in to the exchange rate, while NZ rates can still fall a long way and will probably start doing that shortly. This article in the Spectator is worth reading for the history and likely future direction of the pound.
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 10:04 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by cypherpunk View Post
It's still possible it will come back, because UK interest rates don't have much further to go (can't go below zero!) and their fall is probably already priced in to the exchange rate, while NZ rates can still fall a long way and will probably start doing that shortly. This article in the Spectator is worth reading for the history and likely future direction of the pound.
I just checked my UK savings account rate on the back of this thread and was horrified to see it nets me 2.17%. I read somewhere (buggered if I can remember where now ) that 0% was possible! Then what do we do????

I hasten to add, we don't have much in there, but it keeps up our life insurance policies ...

Article is here ...

http://www.aboutproperty.co.uk/news/property-finance/mortgages/2009-may-see-0-interest-rates--$1258325.htm

Last edited by Am Loolah; Jan 5th 2009 at 10:07 am. Reason: Add link to article.
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 10:48 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

The offshore accounts from some UK banks are still (for now) offering better rates, for example Nationwide. They offer less security though as the guaranteed amount is lower than the UK FSCS guarantee (UKP15,000 vs. UKP50,000).
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 11:04 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

pound will continue to tank till the recession effects the european stated feb-march then may improve

Oh and look out for increased costs in good from jan onwards in the uk
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Old Jan 5th 2009, 4:10 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Althought the pound is crap now, I think it will recover - eventually, as will the US dollar. And, the Euro will fall as well. And, eventually, the NZ dollar will get to a reasonable level of say 3:l. That's my view. It's a waiting game.
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Old Jan 6th 2009, 11:21 pm
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Prolly be a couple to 3 years ..
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Old Jan 7th 2009, 3:11 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by Yotty View Post
Prolly be a couple to 3 years ..
For now its gone now lower than $2.45. Its up at the mo to about $2.50. There could be the odd peak like we saw in November time when it shot up to the dizzy height of $3 overnight. I have a forward contract at that but will buy some soon if it climbs back to the $2.70 mark.

Who would have thought the euro would crumble sooooo soon as it reached parity with the GBP..its back to 1.10 now...truth is no one knows..even the experts admit the currency market is VERY unpredictable..especially a tiny, highly volatile one like the kiwi$.

Watch this space.
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Old Jan 7th 2009, 3:44 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Yup they don't call it the Pacific Peso for nothing...
....and don't forget Mr Keys made his wad by trading currency.....easier than sheep farming me thinks
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Old Jan 7th 2009, 3:51 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by Wooly_Cow View Post
Yup they don't call it the Pacific Peso for nothing...
....and don't forget Mr Keys made his wad by trading currency.....easier than sheep farming me thinks
Its like a bloody yoyo aye? Look at marketwatch on HIFX and bring up the 10 year table of the GBP v kiwi..its like a roller coaster...2.20-3.80 is the variance!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old Jan 7th 2009, 4:36 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
Its like a bloody yoyo aye? Look at marketwatch on HIFX and bring up the 10 year table of the GBP v kiwi..its like a roller coaster...2.20-3.80 is the variance!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If it ever gets up to $3.80 i'm selling my mother!!!
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Old Jan 7th 2009, 7:44 am
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Default Re: The state of the GBP

I had to pay our shipping bill the other day and when I was quoted the rate was at 2.80 and I had to pay at 2.42, making it £600 more! oh well I hope they make a good job of the packing on Monday now.
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