The state of the GBP
#16
Just Joined
Joined: Jan 2009
Location: Auckland
Posts: 3
Re: The state of the GBP
I just got pounds @ $2.50 (0.401 bank sell rate);
What are the odds to make a profit in the next two months? After that I need the funds. The interest rate for term deposits is a disgrace (5% p.a), I hope to make the 5% in two months. Am I being so unrealistic?
What are the odds to make a profit in the next two months? After that I need the funds. The interest rate for term deposits is a disgrace (5% p.a), I hope to make the 5% in two months. Am I being so unrealistic?
#17
Re: The state of the GBP
OH has just texted me to say that UK interest rates are down again to 1.5%. The lowest level in the banks 315 year history.
Well at least our UK mortgage will be below £100 a month
Well at least our UK mortgage will be below £100 a month
#18
Re: The state of the GBP
Major issue now impacting currencies gouing forward is not interest rates because they are all so low, but the state of the national ecconomies.
Same is also true for hosue prices....it's going to depend on how deep the recession is now and how many job losses there are.
The old arab curse seems appropriate these days....'May you live in interesting times!'
#19
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 171
Re: The state of the GBP
Yup and the Pound is strengthening because the vibe is 'that's it for cuts for a while' and that this cut could have been bigger
Major issue now impacting currencies gouing forward is not interest rates because they are all so low, but the state of the national ecconomies.
Major issue now impacting currencies gouing forward is not interest rates because they are all so low, but the state of the national ecconomies.
As for jobs in Jan and Feb expect a bloodbath
#20
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: bottom of the world
Posts: 4,533
Re: The state of the GBP
As i look at it it sat at £2.58 which is ok.
sure its been higher but its not far off its average.
If you want £2.80 just tell your broker, he'll swap it straight away
as soon as it spikes
sure its been higher but its not far off its average.
If you want £2.80 just tell your broker, he'll swap it straight away
as soon as it spikes
Last edited by Justcol; Jan 9th 2009 at 8:04 am.
#21
Banned
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 90
Re: The state of the GBP
The latest rate drop in the UK ain't going to help exchange rates, but as with all investments, you win if you can afford to choose your time. We've still got quite a lot of money in the UK, but I'm refusing to stress about it. We don't need it - yet - so I'll move it when the situation improves. That said, I acknowledge it could take years.....
Mind you, we **did** manage to get a sizeable amount on term deposit at 6.5% just before the last NZ rate drop, so what we're losing on the swings....
Mind you, we **did** manage to get a sizeable amount on term deposit at 6.5% just before the last NZ rate drop, so what we're losing on the swings....
#22
Re: The state of the GBP
It was at $2.7 when I changed some Sterling on Wednesday. That was before yesterday's base rate cut so no idea what's happened since then, but that is a fairly good rate historically IMO. We got just under $2.5 when we changed some early December.
Incidentally, further interest rate cuts are quite possible in the UK. 1% was anticipated yesterday so depending on how many businesses fold over the next 4 weeks, a further cut in February could be on the cards. However the Govt may have started printing more money by then.
Scary how NZ went into recession before the UK, but the effects in the UK are much more visible and unfolding rapidly. Having said that we know of two very scary house price stories in NZ which I haven't heard in the UK. Good friends in Auckland had a final offer rejected at $700k on a house (in Milford, North Shore) in October 2007, that eventually realised $450k almost a year later (Sept 08). Obviously they are delighted they didn't buy it. Additionally their friends sold a house in Castor Bay just before Xmas at $850k that was on the market at $1.2m, with a QV of $1.1m.
#23
Just Joined
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 6
Re: The state of the GBP
The £ will tank out and make it easier to get the people of the UK to accept the €uro .. we are in the death throes of the £
#24
Re: The state of the GBP
[QUOTE=uk+kiwi;7145013]It was at $2.7 when I changed some Sterling on Wednesday. That was before yesterday's base rate cut so no idea what's happened since then, but that is a fairly good rate historically IMO. We got just under $2.5 when we changed some early December.
Where did you get 2.7 this week? HIFx hasn't had that since 17th Dec?
Where did you get 2.7 this week? HIFx hasn't had that since 17th Dec?
#26
Re: The state of the GBP
[QUOTE=Genesis;7146032]
Sainsburys! The lady who served me did tell me at the time that the markets were doing funny things that day. There had been a big movement in the Aus & NZD overnight apparently.
It was at $2.7 when I changed some Sterling on Wednesday. That was before yesterday's base rate cut so no idea what's happened since then, but that is a fairly good rate historically IMO. We got just under $2.5 when we changed some early December.
Where did you get 2.7 this week? HIFx hasn't had that since 17th Dec?
Where did you get 2.7 this week? HIFx hasn't had that since 17th Dec?
Sainsburys! The lady who served me did tell me at the time that the markets were doing funny things that day. There had been a big movement in the Aus & NZD overnight apparently.
#27
Re: The state of the GBP
"Manufacturers' association EEF said the move was "too timid", and that the Bank should have cut rates further. "
and Hugh Pym's opinion (BBC)
"BBC economics editor Hugh Pym said the Bank was now being more cautious after the sharp cuts in interest rates in November and December.
"There is a hint in its statement that it may sit tight for a while to assess the impact of the big reductions over the last couple of months," he said. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7817453.stm
Whilst I agree that the recent strength in the Euro has abated for the moment the trade weighted index of sterling went up on Thursday after the cut.
I beleive that a 0.5 cut was already factored into the market and that the perception was that the BoE would wait and see.
As you will be aware data since then including todays news that the UK ecconomy contracted by 1.5% in the last 3 months may push the BoE to act earlier but now the relative differentials between national base rates are small, the main influence on currency trader descsions will be the relative state of the ecconomies.
What I perhaps should have said was that the previous statement was my opinion (but frankly I would take that as read).
I respect your opinions, and your right to debate mine, but please refrain from calling them crap!!
#28
Just Joined
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 6
Re: The state of the GBP
Also id like to add, you shouldnt just look at whats happening with the currencies alone, there are many factors including commodities and war that will affect matters relating to currency.
There is the underlying fact that the powers that be want the UK in the Euro, it will go someday, and I personally feel that that day is firmly in view now. (maybe a year at least) . At the end of the day its only a piece of paper with a `belief`attached to it.
Last edited by Expatnbob; Jan 11th 2009 at 9:03 am. Reason: spelling
#29
Re: The state of the GBP
Eddies on the ball here
Also id like to add, you shouldnt just look at whats happening with the currencies alone, there are many factors including commodities and war that will affect matters relating to currency.
There is the underlying fact that the powers that be want the UK in the Euro, it will go someday, and I personally feel that that day is firmly in view now. (maybe a year at least) . At the end of the day its only a piece of paper with a `belief`attached to it.
Also id like to add, you shouldnt just look at whats happening with the currencies alone, there are many factors including commodities and war that will affect matters relating to currency.
There is the underlying fact that the powers that be want the UK in the Euro, it will go someday, and I personally feel that that day is firmly in view now. (maybe a year at least) . At the end of the day its only a piece of paper with a `belief`attached to it.
It was $2.45 7 days ago. NZ's economy is looking reallllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllly bad, the euro is faltering, oil's going south, NZ's primed to drop % rate at the end of the month and there's a new US president. The middle east is about as stable as the San Andreas Fault............as Thunderbirds used to say, anything could happen in the next 5 minutes..or was it Stingray?