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Quake warning for the north island?

Quake warning for the north island?

Old Mar 20th 2011, 5:02 pm
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Default Quake warning for the north island?

My mum has just spoke to a kiwi that says they have just recieved an alert for an expected quake somewhere in the north island today....anyone else know anything about this?


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Old Mar 20th 2011, 6:55 pm
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Ah Mr Ring was predicting a quake for the Sth Island yesterday, has he moved on???

There is no means of predicting major earthquakes (as evidenced by Chch and Japan), and both islands get quakes EVERY day.

Baseless rumour based on entirely predictable fact IMHO.
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Old Mar 20th 2011, 7:01 pm
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Yeah I heard about him...was keeping an eye out for yet another breaking news story about a quake in chch again yesterday but...nothing of course..well there was a 5.1? aftershock yesterday but not a "big one" like mr ring was saying.

I read a worrying article on stuff.nz yesterday about welly making plans incase a tsunami like the japan one happens after a quake in cook strait. Again though, it's all IF's, like you say quakes happen every day so theres always a chance it could be a big one right?


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Old Mar 20th 2011, 11:43 pm
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

5.1 is not a 'big one' as you say, we had a rumble and a shake and watched the pictures on the walls move from side to side, there was no need to panic. I am now starting to relax more about the aftershocks[at last!!]

Quakes happen everyday somewhere in NZ, it's just that most are too small for us to feel. And yes there is no way of predicting them, best to ignore anyone who says they can or at least take a very sceptical view at the evidence they are presenting to confirm their 'facts'. Unfortunately people here are already scared and so latch onto any way of determining what may happen to try and regain some control over their lives; however inaccurate that may be However I can understand why they do given what is happening where I live.

Geonet who monitor siesmic activity here can give an approximate probability only based on past earthquakes. They said at the time of the 7.1 that we were likely to have an aftershock one magnitude less at some point.
http://www.geonet.org.nz/index.html Lists the main quakes in NZ though it is all mostly Chch at the moment

Best anyone can do is be prepared for what may happen though not allow this to rule your life. Living in Chch has shown me the benefits to having an emergency kit ready. Got to admit that about a week before the 7.1 I had said we really ought to do something about sorting one out and of course we never did until the reason why we should became abundantly clear
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 3:49 am
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Mr Ring's theory is interesting though, and he's not alone in his thinking - it does seem to make some sense (to me anyway) that the moon has something to do with pulling forces on the earth.... if it works for tides then why not other elements?

As for the emergency kit - we've got one of sorts, and following the Japan quake we had bags packed ready to make a quick exit should it be necessary (in Auckland we're only 200 metres from the waterfront) so needed to be prepared just in case of a tsunami. As it happened though strange tidal movements in the Waitemata was all we witnessed.

Can't imagine "getting used" to aftershocks - you guys down in Christchurch are made of stronger stuff than I am, I would have be out of there with my tail between my legs long ago.
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 4:47 am
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Originally Posted by P18PPS View Post
Mr Ring's theory is interesting though, and he's not alone in his thinking - it does seem to make some sense (to me anyway) that the moon has something to do with pulling forces on the earth.... if it works for tides then why not other elements?
Well, yes, it does make some sense. The 'pulling force' as you name it is gravity. The strength of the gravitational force acting between 2 objects does increase the nearer two objects are together. (In fact the increase/decrease is governed by the so called 'inverse square' law - so for example objects twice as far away have a quarter of the gravitation, objects 4 times further away have 1 sixteenth etc).

So yes, the moon being at it's closest (I believe it's about 50,000km closer than it's furthest point - but don't quote me on that!) does make a difference to the attraction between the earth and moon.

Think of it like this though: At the weekend the moon was as close as it ever gets to the earth. But what about the day before? It hasn't suddenly got that close! It's been getting closer and closer each day. On Friday it was nearly as close, so why no earthquake that day? Equally, it's nearly as close today but no earthquake so far!

I'm afraid Mr Ring is just an attention seeker.
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 5:18 am
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

AFAIK, there's currently no way of predicting an earthquake so as Persephone said, the best we all can do is to be prepared and continue living . Hubby's involved in USAR and I'm involved in civil defence, though neither of us were in ChCh. I do worry about about quakes to some extent (I think everyone does), but knowing that we've prepared ourselves the best we can does help to deal with that. In a way I feel that if the amazing Cantabrians can live through two of such events, I have no right of stopping living just out of fear here where everything is as normal as it can be.

Regarding emergency kits: The government's civil defence pages have excellent instructions on what to have in your emergency kit, your getaway kit, your car/work kit and other instructions like how to store water for emergencies. A household emergency plan (template on said pages) is also something everyone should have so that if for any reason the telephone/mobile networks are out, you know where to go and where to meet and who will go and pick the kids from the school etc. Also it's a good idea to store a pair of old, comfy shoes at work in case you need to be able to walk home (or evacuate). My hubby's got an old backpack at work, containing old trainers, an old fleece jacket, a torch, a water bottle and some muesli bars in case he has to walk home due to an emergency.

If you live in the Wellington area, you can get all local civil defence alerts as text messages to your mobile phone. Instructions HERE
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 7:30 am
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Originally Posted by Markk View Post
Well, yes, it does make some sense. The 'pulling force' as you name it is gravity. The strength of the gravitational force acting between 2 objects does increase the nearer two objects are together. (In fact the increase/decrease is governed by the so called 'inverse square' law - so for example objects twice as far away have a quarter of the gravitation, objects 4 times further away have 1 sixteenth etc).

So yes, the moon being at it's closest (I believe it's about 50,000km closer than it's furthest point - but don't quote me on that!) does make a difference to the attraction between the earth and moon.

Think of it like this though: At the weekend the moon was as close as it ever gets to the earth. But what about the day before? It hasn't suddenly got that close! It's been getting closer and closer each day. On Friday it was nearly as close, so why no earthquake that day? Equally, it's nearly as close today but no earthquake so far!

I'm afraid Mr Ring is just an attention seeker.
thank you for educating me on the word "gravity" !!
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 9:18 am
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Originally Posted by Markk View Post

Think of it like this though: At the weekend the moon was as close as it ever gets to the earth. But what about the day before? It hasn't suddenly got that close! It's been getting closer and closer each day. On Friday it was nearly as close, so why no earthquake that day? Equally, it's nearly as close today but no earthquake so far!

I'm afraid Mr Ring is just an attention seeker.
In Chch we had 12 aftershocks on Thursday, 16 on Friday, 7 on Saturday and 14 on Sunday. Admittedly mainly 2s and 3s.
When you look at reputable sources there seems to be no correlation between the phases of the moon and the number or magnitude of aftershocks.
He is an attention seeker and that would be fine if he wasn't causing people to worry down here. In my job I meet lots of different people and more than usual seemed to be leaving Chch this weekend. People hang onto something, anything that can help them plan ahead or avoid the next 'big one'. Part of the fear of an earthquake is its randomness, its suddenness, the fact you get no warning at all before your life can be changed in an instant. Having this happen twice in such a short period of time increases that fear and insecurity; where might the next new fault line appear and how big is a concern. I know that feeling well though I am now generally more calm and rational [with time!] I can't predict the future and don't want to live my life in fear though it will take each of us differing amounts of time to reach that point
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 9:52 am
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Originally Posted by Markk View Post

I'm afraid Mr Ring is just an attention seeker.
Am I being stupid but who is Mr Ring have I missed something?

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Old Mar 21st 2011, 7:41 pm
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Originally Posted by Margaret Parkinson View Post
Am I being stupid but who is Mr Ring have I missed something?

June
Hi June,

This is what it's all about,

Mark

http://www.whatsonningbo.com/news-22...on-mar-20.html
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 11:20 pm
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Originally Posted by SweetyStacey View Post
My mum has just spoke to a kiwi that says they have just recieved an alert for an expected quake somewhere in the north island today....anyone else know anything about this?


Stacey
Re earthquakes. If you wish to lower your chances of being in one move to Northland. I looked at a map of earthquakes a while back and whilst they do get them they appear (from the map) to get the least. Alas there are few jobs up there.
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Old Mar 21st 2011, 11:48 pm
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

You guys are right, if you were constantly in fear of earthquakes then your life just wouldn't be much fun.

In regards to mr ring..the fact that the prime minister didn't even think much of it says it all. Not fair of him to scare some of the residents of chch though.

Apparently due to the japan quake the earths rotation has slowed down somewhat, hopefully not another worrying statistic.

Im curious though...before the last quake, had the aftershocks stopped from the september one?

@Genesis - my mum has already been studying a map with all the active fault lines listed on it..she's purposely looking at houses in areas that aren't too near fault lines lol.

I am glad there was no major quake or aftershock in chch.


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Old Mar 22nd 2011, 4:47 am
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Default Re: Quake warning for the north island?

Originally Posted by SweetyStacey View Post
Im curious though...before the last quake, had the aftershocks stopped from the september one?

@Genesis - my mum has already been studying a map with all the active fault lines listed on it..she's purposely looking at houses in areas that aren't too near fault lines lol.
Stacey
Unfortunately they hadn't though most were in the magnitude 2 or 3 level so not generally felt. I was feeling about one to two a week before Feb 22nd There was a magnitude 5 towards the end of january but I was out of the country for that one The Feb 22nd one was actually an aftershock of the Sept 4th EQ rather than a new quake.
Don't know if you've seen this but it shows all the aftershocks from Sept 4th onwards http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/all The size of the dot signifies its magnitude, not the area it was felt in!

The faultlines that ruptured here in Chch were unknown before September 4th, there may be other unknown faults around the country. I'm not trying to put anyone off, just saying that this could happen anywhere and it's best not to think you are 'safe' just because you are nowhere near a faultline. Be prepared is the main take away message!!!
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