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The Property slide is gone....

The Property slide is gone....

Old Mar 21st 2009, 4:01 am
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Default The house price crisis is over...

Went to a show home today for a look around and the very nice lady on site was adamant that things were on the up....?

Apparently interest rates have now bottomed out and will rise over the next few months (so we should be getting a mortgage now) and house prices are now rising slowly?..... (so we should buy now)

Now call me a doubter but everything I read and hear says the exact opposite and I said this to her but seems I 'need to get the facts right'.

Ah well the economic and housing crisis is over she says.....

Last edited by teambwr47; Mar 21st 2009 at 4:12 am.
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 4:44 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Real estate agent we know here said that , in her opinion & from what she had seen, house prices around this area had bottomed out.
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 5:11 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Our area was badly hit with values sliding and as for volume of sales .... halved in the last couple of months.

Having said that, an awful lot more sold signs up in the last month, including million $+ beachfront properties, low end investor/1st home buyer properties and even sections!

It'll be interesting to see March's figures when they come out around the 10th-14th April.
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 7:03 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Reserve Bank has hinted very strongly there are two more 25pt decreases in interest rates to come. My money is on what they tell me, not a real estate agent.
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 7:29 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Hmmm... anecdotal evidence from 2 property folks we know is that prices have steadied, sales are on the up, and there is a slight increase in demand.

Our Westpac banker said that Westpac 5yr+ mortgage rates rose last week, and won't drop again soon as their economists see things moving to the positive during the next 12 months.

On the other end, 2 firms I know have made more redundanies, another has gone to a 4 day week with a week long shut down planned for Easter.

Property sales are now having to happen for those who need to move on, the 'investor' set are being bought into the property market by the low short to mid-term interest rates, as are that lifeblood of property - the first-time buyer - who are dipping a toe in too as they've saved for their deposit and can afford the lower monthly payments. From all that I've heard my conclusion is that property will flatten out, but unemployment will continue to rise until banks can start easing criteria to loan to businesses who are being finanially contrained.

But then what the **** do I know- I'm a Marine Biologist!
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 7:35 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....


Marine Biology to Recruitment.

I can see the connection........ NOT!!!!
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 8:25 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Originally Posted by P2L View Post

Marine Biology to Recruitment.

I can see the connection........ NOT!!!!
It's where he "dips his toe in the water!!!!"

But I agree with what you say Andy, property market wise it does seem to be beginning to shift upwards in terms of buyers acting now resulting in more sales. And employment wise, certainly harder times ahead.

Which begs the question who are these property buyers? If your job is potentially shaky - you wouldn't tie in to a mortgage.

So, my conclusion, is the old investor/cash is king purchaser coming out of the woodwork? Combined with the first home buyer who hopefully has job security ...

I read a Herald article that predicted interest rates could be as low as 2% by Spring, but that was contradicted by a bank that said they can't afford to drop their mortgages that low ... Do they have a choice?
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 8:35 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Our 2 year fixed term is up in August and yesterday I asked our broker to see about breaking it to fix for five years because I believe the rates will have increased quite a bit for the five year term by then - wholesale borrowing has become more expensive again and rates are fixed with a view to the future.

There are more buyers than sellers at the moment all over Auckland. Prices are not going to rise - they're also not going to fall much more either because of the shortage of houses to buy. It's going to be well into 2010 before prices start to rise again but because Kiwis like moving house (and do so on average every 7 years) the hope is that people will start realising that the cost of change is the same no matter what price they get for their house (especially if they bought before 2005) and the market will get moving again.

PS. The average wage for a real estate agent (70% of them) is $30k a year which is why you'll find so many women doing it - the hubby is the main earner. It's easy to make them the fall guy but I don't know many people who would work 24/7 for $30k a year.
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 8:48 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Originally Posted by Am Loolah View Post
Which begs the question who are these property buyers? If your job is potentially shaky - you wouldn't tie in to a mortgage.

So, my conclusion, is the old investor/cash is king purchaser coming out of the woodwork? Combined with the first home buyer who hopefully has job security ...
4 out of 5 people are not worried about their jobs...... that's where the buyers are coming from AL. For all the doom and gloom in the media it's 1 out of 5 who are worried that they might lose their jobs. If people still have a job in our place then they're safe. There have been a load of redundancies but they all got other jobs - I don't know of anyone who's still out of work.

Originally Posted by Am Loolah View Post
I read a Herald article that predicted interest rates could be as low as 2% by Spring, but that was contradicted by a bank that said they can't afford to drop their mortgages that low ... Do they have a choice?
The long-term (5-7 years) won't stay cheap for long. As I said in my previous post, we're looking to fix now for 5 years - if we want to break it sometime before the 5 years, and rates have risen, break fees will be negligible (and maybe non-existent) - it's all about what credit is going to cost in the future and seemingly there is a glimmer of hope out there that's being kept well hidden at the moment.

I see Westpac are advertising home loans again and I haven't seen one of those adverts for a long time now!
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 9:23 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Originally Posted by P2L View Post

Marine Biology to Recruitment.

I can see the connection........ NOT!!!!
Haha! Believe me, you ain't the only one!

Originally Posted by Am Loolah View Post
It's where he "dips his toe in the water!!!!"
Nice one Am Loolah - have some comedy karma
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 9:39 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Originally Posted by Batty View Post
4 out of 5 people are not worried about their jobs...... that's where the buyers are coming from AL. For all the doom and gloom in the media it's 1 out of 5 who are worried that they might lose their jobs. If people still have a job in our place then they're safe. There have been a load of redundancies but they all got other jobs - I don't know of anyone who's still out of work.



The long-term (5-7 years) won't stay cheap for long. As I said in my previous post, we're looking to fix now for 5 years - if we want to break it sometime before the 5 years, and rates have risen, break fees will be negligible (and maybe non-existent) - it's all about what credit is going to cost in the future and seemingly there is a glimmer of hope out there that's being kept well hidden at the moment.

I see Westpac are advertising home loans again and I haven't seen one of those adverts for a long time now!
Interesting Batty - and you are no doubt right - it is doom and gloom of the media as opposed to "real life" people you talk to. We are looking to buy an investment property ourselves at the moment at a fixed rate for 5 years. It stacks up for us financially - but only if we can pick something bog standard up at between 50-60K under list price to get a 5% return?! But I know, we live in a high property value area! As far as I'm concerned my money is getting me 3.25% in the bank, so 5% in property with a capital gain in 3-5 years is all good!
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 9:39 am
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Originally Posted by Wiz'n'Ton View Post
Nice one Am Loolah - have some comedy karma
Want more .............
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 10:35 am
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Default Re: The house price crisis is over...

Originally Posted by teambwr47 View Post
Went to a show home today for a look around and the very nice lady on site was adamant that things were on the up....?

Apparently interest rates have now bottomed out and will rise over the next few months (so we should be getting a mortgage now) and house prices are now rising slowly?..... (so we should buy now)

Now call me a doubter but everything I read and hear says the exact opposite and I said this to her but seems I 'need to get the facts right'.

Ah well the economic and housing crisis is over she says.....
I would be a bit sceptical of real estate agents. It's in their interests to tell you that the market was on the rise...why would you buy otherwise. They have been optimistic for the last 12 months as prices fell
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 11:11 am
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Exclamation Re: The Property slide is gone....

Originally Posted by BEVS here View Post
Real estate agent we know here said that , in her opinion & from what she had seen, house prices around this area had bottomed out.
Ask her to put her money where her mouth is, if you buy a house now will she write you a check to cover your paper losses in 6 to 12 months or even two years?

I'm not a fortune teller and I don't have the ability to see into the future but, frankly, it's still a bloodbath out there. In the long term you may make a reasonable return but do you really think this is the best investment you could make?
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Old Mar 21st 2009, 12:35 pm
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Default Re: The Property slide is gone....

Originally Posted by Am Loolah View Post
Interesting Batty - and you are no doubt right - it is doom and gloom of the media as opposed to "real life" people you talk to. We are looking to buy an investment property ourselves at the moment at a fixed rate for 5 years. It stacks up for us financially - but only if we can pick something bog standard up at between 50-60K under list price to get a 5% return?! But I know, we live in a high property value area! As far as I'm concerned my money is getting me 3.25% in the bank, so 5% in property with a capital gain in 3-5 years is all good!
Are you only looking in your immediate area? The best place would be somewhere with a low property price and a high rental population so it could be in another part of the country entirely.
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