Genesis

I heard on Sky news that the kiwi is tipped to go one for one with the US dollar. It sits at just a shade over .83 at present. One wonders how that will translate to the pound? I have roughly worked out IF they go down the similar route we will be looking at 1.59 NZ dollars for a Great British pound.

Hmmm, I wonder how many more people with right of abode in the Uk will desert NZ as they will be so much richer at the unimaginable 1.59?

Who on earth would come here at that rate either on vacation or to live assuming they will have a lump sum to exchange to the ever so powerful kiwi $.

It really is a very, very grim prospect. I googgled 'where will the GBP be end 2011' and its a bit uptempo. They reckon UK interest rates will be nudging upwards and that the UK does have some life left in it. Only time will tell.

The great big fat question is do we jump now at this rotten, rotten rate because we really know it will never get any better for eons and stick it in HSBC for a year and get 5.95%??????????

hazeandsteve

Have you really forgotten why you came here, or was it all based on a get rich quick basis?
You're extolling the virtues of leaving NZ and scooting back to Blighty, purely on exchange rates.
If your whole life revolves around the GBP/NZD exchange rates, which judging by your posts, it does, then maybe it's time you sold up and headed north.
As for me, i'm off snowboarding seeing as the boat is shut in the garage for a couple of months.

BEVS

You gotta boat & can do the snow board stuff ?

DC10

check out

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDC...sic+Chart&t=5y

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDE...sic+Chart&t=5y

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDC...sic+Chart&t=5y

and then

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPJ...sic+Chart&t=5y

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPC...sic+Chart&t=5y

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPE...sic+Chart&t=5y

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPC...sic+Chart&t=5y

before your next post about the Kiwi being so strong.

Genesis

The bit about returning to the Uk is a tad tongue in cheek. With respect to my life revolving around forex at present yes it is a major issue for me. We intend to stay in Nz long term. The money we have in the UK and the money we have coming in by way of our hard earned pensions is being eroded by the day.

Tell me you would not be a wee bit concerned if your Uk money was worth about $70k less than it was 6 weeks ago. We are not that wealthy that an albeit 'technical' $70k loss will not affect us. It will be a real loss if the pound does not spring back anytime soon. Yes it concerns me and pisses me off, I reckon it would most folk.

I am 52 and I don't work any more and had planned not to. The way our money is going down the gurgler is a bit depressing. Sorry if I go on about it. May I suggest you ignore the posts you find irritating?

Genesis

I am not sure I understand. I just looked at one or two and saw the pound nose diving didn't I?

DC10

I'm just harping that the/your main problem is weak Sterling rather than a strong Kiwi. The Kiwi is only super strong against a couple of currencies. Unfortunately you happen to be holding one of them.

Genesis

I know sterling is weak..but the kiwi is also ridiculously overvalued. The latter making things worse than the former I reckon.

simonsi

You´ve held on Genesis and each time the rate has moved against you...can´t you see the pattern?

Genesis

Yes I have admitted at this juncture we ARE seeing a trend ( I still argue over an extended period of time you will see peaks and troughs). But this is a bloody ski slope. One frankly does not know what to do. I guess the best thing is to sit on it.

Fortunately or unfortunately (depends which way you view it) there is a large amount a stake here. I know if I jump now there is a likelihood in a matter of months that things will probably improve in our favour.

On the other hand they may not and we will eventually see 1.50 and our GBPs stuck in the UK earning one third of what they do here. Talk about a rock and a hard place.

And if people think I am going on about it hard luck. Move on to the next thread. This is important to us and our children. I can't pay for stuff with love and squiffy thoughts.

When anyone is seeing their wealth go down the pan (through no fault of their own) it's bound to be a bit galling eh? If it doesn't well then you've probably got too much cash.

simonsi

meant your pattern, not the rates. Its all worrying and stressful because you haven´t done anything. I´d suggest you decide perhaps to change your fund in blocks, 10 blocks, 25% in each block etc, then you reduce the risk of further moves against you but you can (until you have changed it all) take advantage if the rate moves your way.

Cant do anything about the shifts that have already happened but you can do something sensible to reduce your risk going forward. note, hope is not a plan

If the amount is substantial to you then take some professional advice on hedging strategies, it would be worth it for you.

A trend is simply the average shift over a period of time. The current short term trend is in the same direction as the long term trend so dangerous...I cant see any sudden correction to be had in an upwards direction....

Genesis

Thanks for your advice. Very appreciated. The current rate is so grim I can't bring myself to do a thing. I guess I will have to wear the 2% in the Uk and sit on our NZ based sterling until things improve.

I understand they may not improve but its a bit like a move of desparation to sell now at such catclysmic bad rates.....especially as we currently have no need for the money just now.

Of course if things drop further and stay that way for a decade I will have egg on my face. But one doubts that will happen. Its fair to say in the next 1-2 years it may return to above 2.0

That will mean an improvement of around $30k ......just for 10 cents. I appreciate that works the other way. But as I said these are technical losses until you jump into the fray and start selling.

So I reckon it is a time to wait. One thing I have to remember nothing is lost (apart from some interest) until we sell ought. In the mean time I am hoping to do something more advantageous with the money in the UK.

LoCarb

Just popped in to say that parity is already with us.

When NZ adopted decimal currency in 1967 it was based on one NZ dollar = ten NZ shillings.
Brits kept their pound as a pound.

So in reality, parity is $2 to the ₤.