Charismatic

I think a lot of people have been keeping money in GBP, every time an impediment to brexit appears (the latest being court reminding government statute has precedent over decree, as it ever has) GBP rallies.

dfjordan

I would suggest that anyone who owns a house in Akl, sell it and rent. Transfer the sale proceeds to the UK and buy a property there, where you'll be getting a bargain and no doubt, in the longer term, a nice capital gain .

Charismatic

Head winds for both currencies, UK inflation data looks weak. It'll be interesting to see if it's a lack of pass through on imported goods or if consumers feeling the pinch so not spending.

Charismatic

Liberal democrat Sarah Olney just took the Richmond electorate from ex-Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith (who drew the short straw on airport expansion) running on an anti-brexit ticket. The next UK election could be an interesting one if which side of brexit you stand on rather than party allegiances.

Conservative MPs seeking reelection who live in pro-EU constituencies might want to call in sick the day of any commons votes on the matter .

Kotare

Given the state of European politics (Italy, Austria, France, Netherlands etc) that assumes the EU exists in its present form by the next UK election.

LittleGreyCat

Very quiet about Greece at the moment.

gingerninga

We were *just* about to accept a cash offer on our house in the UK when Brexit happened.

Everything changed.

We switched to renting out our house in the UK and renting in NZ.

Just going to play a waiting game and hope that GBP/NZD returns to something approaching longer term averages before our 4 year tax break ends. Might have to wait longer even depending on how long it takes May's government to actually trigger Brexit and how the trade deals are looking a few years after that.

My Kiwi husband had been in the UK 12 years before we moved back this year, and has travelled back and forth from the UK since childhood before that. He believes it's just a case of riding out the cycle.

LittleGreyCat

Pound seems to have rallied a bit this week.

Then again, getting above 1.75 is not exactly world shattering. looking back over 5 years the pound has been under 2 dollars most of the time apart from 2015. 10 years is depressingly linear on the down slope.

stevelancaster

Good news for the exchange rate this morning.

Charismatic

Inflation rate up to 1.2% p.a. Mostly imported goods (fuel, food etc.) so it'll be interesting to see what wages do in response. A drop in real wages may swing public opinion on a range of issues and I think Theresa May is aware of that.

Charismatic

Theresa May pushed GBP lower by insisting that brexit would go ahead and also stated that the UK would not retain any form of privelaged relationship with the EU.

Charismatic

Well the UK government has talked about building glabal ties etc. etc. and somehow mentioned New Zealand (although at this point, as far as I'm aware, we've not invited any friends requests?) Now obviously of we wait long enough we can likely get whatever we want because the UKs attempts to talk up trade deals make it desperately clear they will eventually bend to anyone at any cost as no one has yet been interested until they talk to the EU first.

The question is really what do we want? My thought is that:
- A reciprocal working visa arrangement would be highly desirable for New Zealand being a small country young people having access to global opportunities is pivotal to raising the bar on the way businesses are also run here in New Zealand.
- Reciprocal no tarrif arrangment on primary produce with the stipulation UK farms are not to be subsidised in any way, make it a level field.

My thoughts are we lay out our terms early and wait for the government in the UK to get desperate and cave in on our terms.

Charismatic

I'm not accusing New Zealand of exploiting the situation to get EU market access but the EU did just agree to negotiate bi-lateral trade talks. Trade talks with the UK are scheduled subsequently . Trade minister seemed right smug on radio announcing it.

Looks like the EU have been doing some sums on the final settlement from the UK and that will be approximately 60 billion Euro. There was some indication members of the UKs government might object but they also want a favorable trade deal.

A few financial service providers started to relocate as, at this point, they are completely exposed without any passporting guarantees.

LoCarb

Good background lecture on the EU and the Eurozone in particular:

Joan Muysken Lecture: “The Eurozone, Groupthink and denial on a grand scale”

Charismatic

Seems to be on the Eurozone rather than EU? Either way I enjoy a dissenting view.