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migration & NZ economic outlook

migration & NZ economic outlook

Old Nov 22nd 2005, 8:58 am
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Question migration & NZ economic outlook

Hi
Im in the Visa Q for NZ just need a job to get in at the 100 pass mark if it doesn't rise as indicated in another thread. my mind was made up to go to NZ BUT now I read of pending NZ economic doom. Migrants from the UK have subsided, whilst migration is still encouraged from elsewhere. Exports have fallen and continue to fall due to the high NZ $, imported oil consumption is relativly high and is forcing up domestic prices ad pump prices, (up 38% in 2005 alone) Interest rates are due to rise in the long term to curb spending bought on by the housing booom and the equity people have to dispose of (as in the UK) Domestic & consumer debit is spiraling upwards and the cost of borrowing is reducing consumer spending. With exports low and falling labour demand is also flatening off, the new build housing boom has diminished (planning requests have fallen indicating a large% drop compared to last year) so skilled labour demand will drop considerably. The falling NZ$ (as it will have to do re boast exports) will make tourism les appealing a very cheap destination become mearly cheap.

Dont be fouled, I only read these point in an economic web site forecast BUT if among other things interest rates will rise and employment vacanices fall should I consider staying put in the UK (with enough of it's own issues)?

Any advice from people in country, am I looking just a little too deep into things? is it worth the risk compared to staying here?

HELP..........

thanks, confussed of Croydon.
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Old Nov 22nd 2005, 12:09 pm
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Smile Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by ibennett
Hi
Im in the Visa Q for NZ just need a job to get in at the 100 pass mark if it doesn't rise as indicated in another thread. my mind was made up to go to NZ BUT now I read of pending NZ economic doom. Migrants from the UK have subsided, whilst migration is still encouraged from elsewhere. Exports have fallen and continue to fall due to the high NZ $, imported oil consumption is relativly high and is forcing up domestic prices ad pump prices, (up 38% in 2005 alone) Interest rates are due to rise in the long term to curb spending bought on by the housing booom and the equity people have to dispose of (as in the UK) Domestic & consumer debit is spiraling upwards and the cost of borrowing is reducing consumer spending. With exports low and falling labour demand is also flatening off, the new build housing boom has diminished (planning requests have fallen indicating a large% drop compared to last year) so skilled labour demand will drop considerably. The falling NZ$ (as it will have to do re boast exports) will make tourism les appealing a very cheap destination become mearly cheap.

Dont be fouled, I only read these point in an economic web site forecast BUT if among other things interest rates will rise and employment vacanices fall should I consider staying put in the UK (with enough of it's own issues)?

Any advice from people in country, am I looking just a little too deep into things? is it worth the risk compared to staying here?

HELP..........

thanks, confussed of Croydon.
All I can say is, if you are going to NZ for financial reasons - don't. If you are going to NZ for other reasons eg lifestyle, family, and can stomach the fact that you will be considerably poorer (unless you already have tons of money), then go.

Apply your own situation to these statements and decide!

Cheers

Buzzy
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 1:40 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by ibennett
Hi
Im in the Visa Q for NZ just need a job to get in at the 100 pass mark if it doesn't rise as indicated in another thread. my mind was made up to go to NZ BUT now I read of pending NZ economic doom. Migrants from the UK have subsided, whilst migration is still encouraged from elsewhere. Exports have fallen and continue to fall due to the high NZ $, imported oil consumption is relativly high and is forcing up domestic prices ad pump prices, (up 38% in 2005 alone) Interest rates are due to rise in the long term to curb spending bought on by the housing booom and the equity people have to dispose of (as in the UK) Domestic & consumer debit is spiraling upwards and the cost of borrowing is reducing consumer spending. With exports low and falling labour demand is also flatening off, the new build housing boom has diminished (planning requests have fallen indicating a large% drop compared to last year) so skilled labour demand will drop considerably. The falling NZ$ (as it will have to do re boast exports) will make tourism les appealing a very cheap destination become mearly cheap.

Dont be fouled, I only read these point in an economic web site forecast BUT if among other things interest rates will rise and employment vacanices fall should I consider staying put in the UK (with enough of it's own issues)?

Any advice from people in country, am I looking just a little too deep into things? is it worth the risk compared to staying here?

HELP..........

thanks, confussed of Croydon.
You're actually not correct about migrants from the UK, which are still high vs last 10 years average, plus overall inward migration is holding steady at about +45,000 a year. However, net immigration is down (tho still positive at about +10K a year), mainly because lots of Kiwis are going to work abroad.

As regards the economy, there are good bits and bad bits. Economy continues to grow at a rate far superior to the UK and the OECD average. Unemployment is lowest in the OECD by a big margin. Falling $ is sure to be engineered, boosting exports, current a/c, tourism (which is very largely at the quality end in NZ).

cheers - Quackers
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 2:42 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Agree with the above - in fact the NZ Immigration policy has shifted and UK migrants have become the largest group over the last year or so.

As to the economic projections, probably mostly right in essence, but your quotes do seem to tend to a strongly negative view - "doom & gloom & disaster" which may not really be justified.

The economy has grown very fast (for NZ) over the last 5 years and is probably well due for a correction. Economists seem to be divided on whether it will be a soft landing or "meltdown" - probably most likely somewhere in the middle !!

I would aslo agree from our experience that it is expensive to live in NZ relative to income, and we have been fortunate to have enjoyed a relatively good income. we have had to cut back a lot.

Dont be fooled by too many statistics - NZ has low unemployment but a lot of it due to the clever shift of large numbers of people from unemployment benefits onto 'sickness benefit'. Thus the government can correctly claim low unemployment whilst still paying out large sums to 300,000 beneficiaries who are now "sick" and not "unemployed"

The number of Kiwis going overseas is similar to what it has been over the years, the key difference between 2001 and 2002 was that a larger number of migrants came in, giving net inflows of around 20,000 per annum, which is now down to a few thousand.

The immigraton quota of 45,000 has remained constant over the last 4-5 years and has been filled every year - even of they did have to drop the points from 185 to 100 to do it!!!

In summary I would say that it is worth beimg aware of these things but life goes on even when the economy isnt booming.
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 4:18 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by ibennett
Hi
Im in the Visa Q for NZ just need a job to get in at the 100 pass mark if it doesn't rise as indicated in another thread. my mind was made up to go to NZ BUT now I read of pending NZ economic doom. Migrants from the UK have subsided, whilst migration is still encouraged from elsewhere. Exports have fallen and continue to fall due to the high NZ $, imported oil consumption is relativly high and is forcing up domestic prices ad pump prices, (up 38% in 2005 alone) Interest rates are due to rise in the long term to curb spending bought on by the housing booom and the equity people have to dispose of (as in the UK) Domestic & consumer debit is spiraling upwards and the cost of borrowing is reducing consumer spending. With exports low and falling labour demand is also flatening off, the new build housing boom has diminished (planning requests have fallen indicating a large% drop compared to last year) so skilled labour demand will drop considerably. The falling NZ$ (as it will have to do re boast exports) will make tourism les appealing a very cheap destination become mearly cheap.

Dont be fouled, I only read these point in an economic web site forecast BUT if among other things interest rates will rise and employment vacanices fall should I consider staying put in the UK (with enough of it's own issues)?

Any advice from people in country, am I looking just a little too deep into things? is it worth the risk compared to staying here?

HELP..........

thanks, confussed of Croydon.
All the things you described above and read about are part of living in the 'western' world, so it's up toyou whether you decide to jump or not.
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 5:37 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by ibennett
Hi
Im in the Visa Q for NZ just need a job to get in at the 100 pass mark if it doesn't rise as indicated in another thread. my mind was made up to go to NZ BUT now I read of pending NZ economic doom. Migrants from the UK have subsided, whilst migration is still encouraged from elsewhere. Exports have fallen and continue to fall due to the high NZ $, imported oil consumption is relativly high and is forcing up domestic prices ad pump prices, (up 38% in 2005 alone) Interest rates are due to rise in the long term to curb spending bought on by the housing booom and the equity people have to dispose of (as in the UK) Domestic & consumer debit is spiraling upwards and the cost of borrowing is reducing consumer spending. With exports low and falling labour demand is also flatening off, the new build housing boom has diminished (planning requests have fallen indicating a large% drop compared to last year) so skilled labour demand will drop considerably. The falling NZ$ (as it will have to do re boast exports) will make tourism les appealing a very cheap destination become mearly cheap.

Dont be fouled, I only read these point in an economic web site forecast BUT if among other things interest rates will rise and employment vacanices fall should I consider staying put in the UK (with enough of it's own issues)?

Any advice from people in country, am I looking just a little too deep into things? is it worth the risk compared to staying here?

HELP..........

thanks, confussed of Croydon.
Yes I hear all that.......BUT the countryside is SO BEAUTIFUL.

Gill.... sorry, just had to add that
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 7:19 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by TIE
Agree with the above - in fact the NZ Immigration policy has shifted and UK migrants have become the largest group over the last year or so.

As to the economic projections, probably mostly right in essence, but your quotes do seem to tend to a strongly negative view - "doom & gloom & disaster" which may not really be justified.

The economy has grown very fast (for NZ) over the last 5 years and is probably well due for a correction. Economists seem to be divided on whether it will be a soft landing or "meltdown" - probably most likely somewhere in the middle !!

I would aslo agree from our experience that it is expensive to live in NZ relative to income, and we have been fortunate to have enjoyed a relatively good income. we have had to cut back a lot.

Dont be fooled by too many statistics - NZ has low unemployment but a lot of it due to the clever shift of large numbers of people from unemployment benefits onto 'sickness benefit'. Thus the government can correctly claim low unemployment whilst still paying out large sums to 300,000 beneficiaries who are now "sick" and not "unemployed"

The number of Kiwis going overseas is similar to what it has been over the years, the key difference between 2001 and 2002 was that a larger number of migrants came in, giving net inflows of around 20,000 per annum, which is now down to a few thousand.

The immigraton quota of 45,000 has remained constant over the last 4-5 years and has been filled every year - even of they did have to drop the points from 185 to 100 to do it!!!

In summary I would say that it is worth beimg aware of these things but life goes on even when the economy isnt booming.

Thanks, The few that have read what I said seem to have missed the bit about I only read these things, am not an expert, far from it. In reality the doom and gloom outlook is probaly right in context and a wrong way to react.

The points raised are just part of a comprehensive research into the best thing to do/place to go.
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 7:48 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by Gill and Rob
Yes I hear all that.......BUT the countryside is SO BEAUTIFUL.

Gill.... sorry, just had to add that

Thanks Gill , are you blond by any chance
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 9:01 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee
All I can say is, if you are going to NZ for financial reasons - don't. If you are going to NZ for other reasons eg lifestyle, family, and can stomach the fact that you will be considerably poorer (unless you already have tons of money), then go.

Apply your own situation to these statements and decide!

Cheers

Buzzy
Thats a spot on piece of advice.
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Old Nov 23rd 2005, 9:04 pm
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

The economy is cooling, but many people think thats probably a good thing to bring things back into equilibrium. The housing/building boom, really tight labour market and highest interest rates in OECD, may have been holding back the next phase of NZ growth (investment driven/technology-based productivity gains).

Personally, I would say there is more upside potential in the NZ economy than there is in the UK.
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Old Nov 24th 2005, 6:44 am
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Looking at the replies, spirits are high down there in the promised land, can i ask though, IF you knew then what you know now, wether it be jobs , cost of living or doom and gloom lingering in the future....Would you do it again?

My reasons for wanting to leave the UK are tooo long to type here but is NZ part of the UK's romantic obsession with the grass is greener else where?

cheers
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Old Nov 24th 2005, 3:56 pm
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by ibennett
Looking at the replies, spirits are high down there in the promised land, can i ask though, IF you knew then what you know now, wether it be jobs , cost of living or doom and gloom lingering in the future....Would you do it again?

My reasons for wanting to leave the UK are tooo long to type here but is NZ part of the UK's romantic obsession with the grass is greener else where?

cheers
Really the answer you are looking for you can only answer yourself...If you know that you will be in a worse financial position than being in the UK, and that will then deter you from being to be able to achieve your goals here...and have to return.....why come....
We have been here since April, we had high hopes for raising our family here, the Salaries, cost of living, is harder to manage than we had expected, and we are faced with the prospect of if nothing changes soon ie better paid job, there will be no alternative but to return...would we have still come if we had known this....to be honest...I cant answer that right now..NZ is a beautiful country to visit ( if you can afford to visit anywhere earning dollars) and it is devastating to be trying to realise your ambitions and not being able to do .......but this was a risk we took by coming here and it could have worked out...all you can do is apply what you are looking for against what is available, and decide whether that balances out as a good enough reason to try.....life is full of disappointments, and I still love NZ...just a shame for us NZ isn't the "promised land" best of luck with your decisions.
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Old Nov 24th 2005, 6:30 pm
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by melting pot
Really the answer you are looking for you can only answer yourself...If you know that you will be in a worse financial position than being in the UK, and that will then deter you from being to be able to achieve your goals here...and have to return.....why come....
We have been here since April, we had high hopes for raising our family here, the Salaries, cost of living, is harder to manage than we had expected, and we are faced with the prospect of if nothing changes soon ie better paid job, there will be no alternative but to return...would we have still come if we had known this....to be honest...I cant answer that right now..NZ is a beautiful country to visit ( if you can afford to visit anywhere earning dollars) and it is devastating to be trying to realise your ambitions and not being able to do .......but this was a risk we took by coming here and it could have worked out...all you can do is apply what you are looking for against what is available, and decide whether that balances out as a good enough reason to try.....life is full of disappointments, and I still love NZ...just a shame for us NZ isn't the "promised land" best of luck with your decisions.
Interesting point. All my husband's (kiwi) friends who remain living in NZ, including those that have visited us in the UK and those who have not, do not understand for one second why we would go to live in NZ. None of them have come up with a single reason to do it which I find quite shocking to be honest.

All will become clearer for us in about 10 days time when we go for Xmas as we haven't been for many years. However the idea of moving is losing more and more appeal for all of us (surprisingly hubbie isn't that bothered) the more I find out about cost of living now versus only 2 years ago when we first considered it and then (work) changes made it worth putting on the back boiler.

Hope things improve for you. Carmen.
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Old Nov 24th 2005, 7:58 pm
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by uk+kiwi
Interesting point. All my husband's (kiwi) friends who remain living in NZ, including those that have visited us in the UK and those who have not, do not understand for one second why we would go to live in NZ. None of them have come up with a single reason to do it which I find quite shocking to be honest.

All will become clearer for us in about 10 days time when we go for Xmas as we haven't been for many years. However the idea of moving is losing more and more appeal for all of us (surprisingly hubbie isn't that bothered) the more I find out about cost of living now versus only 2 years ago when we first considered it and then (work) changes made it worth putting on the back boiler.

Hope things improve for you. Carmen.
Carmen, Why do the Kiwis you know think you should not come back to NZ....just interested in what perspectives they have given you....
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Old Nov 24th 2005, 9:25 pm
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Default Re: migration & NZ economic outlook

Originally Posted by ibennett
Thanks Gill , are you blond by any chance

Yes, how did you guess? Are you psychic?

Gill
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