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meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Old May 25th 2006, 3:07 pm
  #106  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by davec987
Hi Dave, I've just joined as a member but have been reading your comments regarding the NZD for a while now with great interest.

I'm originally from NZ but have been living in the UK for 11 years now. Myself and my english partner are looking at a move back to NZ in Jan 07 - so about 8 months from now.

I understand predicting the future currency rates is very hard and there are many variables that influence it.
However, do you have any longer term predictions on the GBP/NZD rate - maybe with a view toward the end of the year?

We had to send money to NZ a few months ago for a house build and the rate was early 2.5's - so we'd be very happy if it got up to 3.20+ in December or Jan when we will be looking to send the bulk of our money to NZ when we move.

Thanks Dave, like I said, enjoy reading your posts on this subject

Dave.

Welcome DaveC!

I'm afraid I can't be of help to you there. My area of specialization is short-term technical trading; 8 months is eons in my world!!!

Maybe one of the other members who are into fundamentals might be of more assistance.

Good luck with it!!!

Dave
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Old May 25th 2006, 3:14 pm
  #107  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

No worries, thanks for the quick response!

We'll keep an eye on the rate (well I do on an hourly basis - drives my partner mad!) and keep reading all the info we can on the subject!

Fingers crossed.
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Old May 25th 2006, 9:15 pm
  #108  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Hi Dave,
We fly out to LA on 14th June then onto NZ. We were looking at using American Express travellers cheques. What's the best way to get our currency for USA/NZ for best rates.
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Old May 26th 2006, 8:16 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Boopy
Hi Dave,
We fly out to LA on 14th June then onto NZ. We were looking at using American Express travellers cheques. What's the best way to get our currency for USA/NZ for best rates.
Use a good currency broker for large amounts, such as www.hifx.co.uk.
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Old Jun 1st 2006, 10:04 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by davec987
Hi Dave, I've just joined as a member but have been reading your comments regarding the NZD for a while now with great interest.

I'm originally from NZ but have been living in the UK for 11 years now. Myself and my english partner are looking at a move back to NZ in Jan 07 - so about 8 months from now.

I understand predicting the future currency rates is very hard and there are many variables that influence it.
However, do you have any longer term predictions on the GBP/NZD rate - maybe with a view toward the end of the year?

We had to send money to NZ a few months ago for a house build and the rate was early 2.5's - so we'd be very happy if it got up to 3.20+ in December or Jan when we will be looking to send the bulk of our money to NZ when we move.

Thanks Dave, like I said, enjoy reading your posts on this subject

Dave.
Hi DaveC

I might be stating the obvious but we look at the economic forecasts published by the National Bank NZ and the RBNZ (and Bloomberg where you'll find many recent conflicting predictions). As you know there are a number of variables affecting long term ER movements but it appears to me that the crucial one is whether (or when) they decide reduce the OCR.

If you read National's summary of key market forecasts (22/5/06) you'll notice that the National Bank have predicted that there could be a gradual decline in the OCR from Dec 06 in which case the NZD should fall but settle at 0.302.

Basically this is what they are forecasting for NZD/GBP: Jun 06 : 0.33; Sept: 0.31; Dec: 0.31; Mar 07: 0.29; Jun: 0.29; Sept: 0.30; Dec: 0.30.

Janet
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Old Jun 1st 2006, 11:32 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Thanks for that Janet, much appreciated.

I hadn't actually read that National Bank NZ report and it does make interesting reading. I'll keep it bookmarked and read the releases as they come out.

Once again, thanks
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Old Jun 3rd 2006, 10:49 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Hello.....

Dave, you know I'm selling my house in the UK, and then buying one here in NZ.... just had a Memorandum of Sale through today saying expected completion date to be middle of July.... any predictions as to whats going to happen with the exchange rate..... what do you reckon?

This is a rather blonde question but I have a Lloyds account still open in the UK and a Westpac one here.... what do I tell the solicitor to do with the money? Obviously they will pay off the mortgage and take their fees out first but then what?? Will they TT it over here to the Westpac account?? Does it have to stay in Sterling in the UK?..... I AM blonde so I can ask this... Help please!! Cheers Sarah x
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Old Jun 6th 2006, 3:21 pm
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by SarahB
Hello.....

Dave, you know I'm selling my house in the UK, and then buying one here in NZ.... just had a Memorandum of Sale through today saying expected completion date to be middle of July.... any predictions as to whats going to happen with the exchange rate..... what do you reckon?

This is a rather blonde question but I have a Lloyds account still open in the UK and a Westpac one here.... what do I tell the solicitor to do with the money? Obviously they will pay off the mortgage and take their fees out first but then what?? Will they TT it over here to the Westpac account?? Does it have to stay in Sterling in the UK?..... I AM blonde so I can ask this... Help please!! Cheers Sarah x
Hi Sarah!

Sorry for delay in responding to your question; been away diving!

I'm in "Hold" mode on the NZ$. As I have previously stated, I feel we need it to push solidly through $3.06 to feel comfortable we are heading for $3.10 in the interim & ultimately $3.21. On the downside, again as previously mentioned, I would be concerned if it dropped to under $2.90 as that would likely see a drop to well under $2.80. I noticed the recent profit taking/consolidation held above the $2.91 support level I had intimated(phew!!).
My gut feeling is that with current economic fundamentals we should see the rate moving higher again but exactly how quickly is anyone's guess!!

I'm not 100% sure on what will happen with your house sale proceeds but I'm 99.9% sure it will have to be paid in £, so therefore into your UK bank account & then you can transfer the money from there.

Hope it all goes well for you!

Dave
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Old Jun 6th 2006, 11:04 pm
  #114  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Sarah,

Your solicitor will be wanting to pay the money in to a UK GBP (LLoyds) account. Get them to stick the proceeds in your existing Lloyds account... and then use a currency broker like HiFX (there are others) to buy the required NZD amount and transfer the final sum in to your Westpac account.

Your order with the broker will nominate a source (GBP) and target (NZD) account - quite simple in practice once you have the facility set up. You then simply need to decide how much to transfer across.

Alan.
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Old Jun 7th 2006, 5:21 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by isv
Sarah,

Your solicitor will be wanting to pay the money in to a UK GBP (LLoyds) account. Get them to stick the proceeds in your existing Lloyds account... and then use a currency broker like HiFX (there are others) to buy the required NZD amount and transfer the final sum in to your Westpac account.

Your order with the broker will nominate a source (GBP) and target (NZD) account - quite simple in practice once you have the facility set up. You then simply need to decide how much to transfer across.

Alan.
Thanks for the replies guys. What time scale am I loking at to get this transfer sorted?

Cheers

Sarah
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Old Jun 7th 2006, 10:40 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by SarahB
Thanks for the replies guys. What time scale am I loking at to get this transfer sorted?

Cheers

Sarah
Couple of days to get an account opened with someone like HiFX. The transfer will usually give you cleared funds within 3 working days. Last time I did one I instructed the broker in the UK at 3pm on the Monday and the funds were in my ASB account for 9:00am Wednesday morning (NZ time).

Alan.
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Old Jun 23rd 2006, 8:43 am
  #117  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by Spacecake799
Im totally confused by the whole money thing. When we sell our house we will have a lump sum to use to buy a house. Obviously this will be in a bank in the uk. When were ready to come to NZ ( hopefully around sept) what should we do with our money. Sorry for being so thick!
Have a look at someone like hifx - they deal with large amounts of money being switched between currencies every day. Unfortunately I have no money and will be leaving the UK with very little (live in rented accommodation) and therefore don't need their services.
At the moment I am sending cheques to a friend in NZ who is then paying them into the bank - much cheaper than wiring money from a UK bank account!

Good luck and hurray for the change in exchange rates (was 2.59 when I left last year).

Alison
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Old Aug 7th 2006, 1:49 pm
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Hey Dave (hope you're still around),

Looks like the GBP is on the rise against the NZD again. Sitting just above the 3.06 rate at the moment. From what you've said earlier, are we hoping it closes above 3.06 today so that previous level of resistance becomes support?
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Old Aug 8th 2006, 10:08 am
  #119  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by davec987
Hey Dave (hope you're still around),

Looks like the GBP is on the rise against the NZD again. Sitting just above the 3.06 rate at the moment. From what you've said earlier, are we hoping it closes above 3.06 today so that previous level of resistance becomes support?
Yep, I stand by my previous posts..... a solid close above $3.06 is needed for the next up move and it certainly appears it is being set up as we speak!! The economic situation is deteriorating in NZ. The most recent edition of the e-magazine "Currency Trader" was most scathing! Even just from an inetersest rate standpoint the GB£ is likely to strengthen against the NZ$.

Dave
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Old Aug 8th 2006, 10:25 am
  #120  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by Paladin
Yep, I stand by my previous posts..... a solid close above $3.06 is needed for the next up move and it certainly appears it is being set up as we speak!! The economic situation is deteriorating in NZ. The most recent edition of the e-magazine "Currency Trader" was most scathing! Even just from an inetersest rate standpoint the GB£ is likely to strengthen against the NZ$.

Dave
Nice one

Certainly sounding very promising then.

Not long now till you make your move then, you must be gearing up for that now?
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